General Weather Discussion - August 2016

[BG918]

Humidity returned last night and I woke up and the low temperature had barely broken 80 as a result.

I wish someone could explain why we have been in this tropic pattern since early June... And without hardly any rain.

I'd be curious to know as well. If it had been a really wet spring/summer I could understand. Is it just the prevailing airmass has been maybe positioning differently allowing more southern flow from the Gulf? I know parts of SE Texas had record rainfall in the spring and recently Louisiana, has that caused there to be more humidity there which has then been transported northward?

[OKCisOK4me]

The way I understand it...when we do have a front come through, it sweeps the humidity down with it and for places like Louisiana and Texas, its either due to a stalled front or being in the vicinity of the low pressure system. Oklahoma has had a couple of stalled fronts but nothing has ever fired off in major flux. While we did have the "heat dome" over us for a time, that still doesn't mean that it would be straight heat and no humidity...which is crazy cause you've got straight heat in central to lower Arizona but they get monsoon showers. Yep, agreed about the moisture trap. But I'll take it in the 85-95 range vs. the 95-105 range any day of the week.

[Anonymous.]

Basically there is a strip of dry air aloft that is being pulled off of the GOM. This is why the rain has completely shut off from SE TX and the majority of the SE.

This stationary front that Lows travel along is abnormally far to the northwest for this time of year, thus giving us a constant stream of dry air preventing any reasonable precipitation, meanwhile directly along the front that is currently over the OK/TX panhandle and slanted all the way up into Canada - they have abundant showers and thunderstorms coming across in waves.

It is a bad luck scenario and difficult to forecast, because this front is crucial to the pattern, but it has been erratic the last month. Back a few weeks ago when LA/MS was flooding, this same front was down along the gulf coast.

[Anonymous.]

Models suggesting a complex of storms forming out west this evening and slowly evolving to the east. This will be close to C OK, but may skirt just to the northwest (as everything has lately). As you can see from the graphic below, SE and NW OK have been getting great rains. Meanwhile, the central parts of the state are drying out.




Keeping an eye on the next few days for Hurricane development. Models suggesting a tropical system hitting Florida or coming into the GOM.

[Anonymous.]

Storms firing up now, some even just south of downtown OKC. This is a good sign that things may develop further east and encompass more of central OK.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0237 PM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 251937Z - 252130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY ORGANIZE AND INTENSIFY ACROSS
THE TX PANHANDLE AND WESTERN OK THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH
THESE STORMS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WATCH ISSUANCE WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE DATA DISPLAY A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHEAST OK SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE TX
PANHANDLE WHERE IT THEN INTERSECTS WEAK CONFLUENCE/TROUGHING THAT
EXTENDS SOUTHWARD TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. TO THE SOUTH/EAST OF THESE
BOUNDARIES...SFC TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S
WHILE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...A
CORRIDOR OF 1500-2500 J/KG HAS MATERIALIZED ACROSS THE REGION...AND
SOME FURTHER DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

STORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...AIDED BY LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED DESTABILIZATION. RECENT KAMA VWP AND
MESOANALYSIS DATA INDICATE THAT THE REGION IS UNDERNEATH THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
IN TURN...THE DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR SOME
MULTICELL/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AS WELL AS MAINTENANCE OF SPLITTING
UPDRAFTS THAT WOULD ENHANCE STORM MERGER/STRONG WIND POTENTIAL.
WHILE INDIVIDUAL CELLS WILL LIKELY ADVANCE NORTH/NORTHEAST DUE TO
THE STRONG SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...LARGER LINES/CLUSTERS
MAY PROGRESS MORE EAST/NORTHEAST THIS EVENING -- A FUNCTION OF
ADVECTION TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND PROPAGATION TO THE EAST INTO
GREATER BUOYANCY. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

..PICCA/WEISS.. 08/25/2016

[John1744]

Impressive boundary setup all around central OK.

[Anonymous.]

Majority of the rain skirted around OKC, Parts of Piedmont and Edmond got some action.

[Rocky in your Radio]

We only had .35 here at the farm, 5mi. NW of Piedmont. East side of Piedmont had around .90. One of the CoCoRaHS observers had almost 4.5 inches last night and early this morning near Guthrie. Look for more of an isolated afternoon/early evening storm coverage the next few days, then looks as though an upper level ridge may build in after mid week. Long term models (the Euro model in particular) suggests a drier than normal September, but I'll be watching the Gulf of Mexico for any action that may come up our way. I'm anticipating a flurry of tropical storms/hurricanes between now and the first two weeks of October. If any of them make it to the western Gulf.. hopefully some beneficial rains will result for Oklahoma.

[Anonymous.]

General storm chances all week basically. Randomized (mostly afternoon) pop up style storms, hopefully one comes to your backyard!

[Anonymous.]

I can't remember the last time a 30-day rainfall map looked anything close to this:



Western OK is bringing the water.

[Anonymous.]

Flash flooding taking place across OKC currently. Storm is currently stationary over downtown OKC and north to about southern Edmond. Radar estimation about 2"+ in the last hour.

[baralheia]

What's amazing to me is comparing the 30-day map above to the 365-day rainfall accumulation map. Some areas of the panhandle have picked up 25% or more of their yearly rain just in the last month. Makes me wonder how Lake Optima is looking right about now, lol

[Bunty]

I can't remember the last time a 30-day rainfall map looked anything close to this:



Western OK is bringing the water.

Amazing how the amounts can very elsewhere in the state. One county got .41", but two counties away got 7.17". My neck of the woods got almost 3" for the last 30 days.