General Weather Discussion - August 2016

[Anonymous.]

Ridge of death maintaining through the weekend. Then it looks like the state will be feeling impacts of a potential tropical system down in Central America. Looks like we could get in on the tropical moisture play throughout next week and more.

[OKCisOK4me]

That would be awesome!

[sacolton]

Praying for rain! Let it come!

[Anonymous.]

A couple models are suggesting storm development this evening along the I-40 corridor. Nothing organized it appears. Just lucky rain.

[Anonymous.]

The heat dome is really interrupting the would-be rainfall from this tropical system down in Central America. A few lucky Oklahomans have been able to get in on some of the action, but everything is very spotty.

It looks like the heat dome will finally get beaten down far enough to get in the remnants of the tropical rain once we get into this coming weekend. As of now, GFS forecasting heavy rains across a large portion of OK during the weekend.

[Rocky in your Radio]

Greetings everyone! My first post here on okctalk. I love that there is a weather section here. Another forum I've been a part of has one for Oklahoma but it's been hard for other's to participate. Looking at all the data (European, GFS and Canadian models) strongly implies that we may dodge the typical searing heat we typically experience this time of year for what maybe the next couple of weeks. After about Thursday, looks as though we'll be on the downhill slide to temps. averaging a good 4-7 degrees below average with occasional bouts of rain and thunderstorm complexes moving thru. Currently, I would peg Friday night thru possibly Sunday with what could amount to at least an inch of rain across the metro area; some places maybe 2-3 inches. Afterwards, thru most of the following week, slightly below average temperatures and almost daily chances for at least an isolated storm or two. The impending rain chances this time of year can be a good thing, but with it, come's the unseasonably high dew points. So for what amounts to the second summer in a row, we're faced with more of a Florida type of summer rather than an Oklahoma one. Typically by this time of the year, dew points are near 60 at best and temperatures in the mid to upper 90's to near 100F. Not so much this year again. I do not see this pattern changing anytime in the near future.

Further ahead for later in the month into September, possibly more of the same. Long term models (the extended EURO model out 45 days) suggests what I see is an increased chance of tropical activity in the Gulf of Mexico which could have implications on our weather here. I will be surprised if there isn't at least 1 or two named storms threatening coastal areas between Tampa and Corpus Christi next month. Anything that threatens areas to the west of New Orleans may affect us as the remnants of these systems move into our area. I give this scenario happening at least a 40% chance of occurring. Time will tell how this pans out. I'll post more when I'm able. This is a great forum here.. Thanks and have a blessed day.

[Rocky in your Radio]

Ironically you posted the same time I was typing my input.. The 0Z and 6Z GFS runs has possible rain chances thru almost all of next week too. It seems to be almost to aggressive on the QPF outputs which it has a history of doing. Nonetheless, it bears watching. The EURO is less on rainfall but keeps temps. close to average. If the rainfall anticipated comes to fruition, the airmass will be unusually humid, hence my "Florida like" feel to our weather.

[Bobby821]

The heat dome is really interrupting the would-be rainfall from this tropical system down in Central America. A few lucky Oklahomans have been able to get in on some of the action, but everything is very spotty.

It looks like the heat dome will finally get beaten down far enough to get in the remnants of the tropical rain once we get into this coming weekend. As of now, GFS forecasting heavy rains across a large portion of OK during the weekend.

When does it show the rain starting and ending and how much are we going to get in Central Oklahoma?

[Anonymous.]

When does it show the rain starting and ending and how much are we going to get in Central Oklahoma?

At this time, Friday evening and during the early parts of the day Saturday. Estimating 1-2 inches along I-44 corridor and east.

[Dustin]

Bring on the cold front!

[Anonymous.]

Bad news, the low appears like it will track much further east than it has been forecasted the last 4-5 days. This takes the potential for heavy rain to extreme east and southeast OK.

Best chance for Central OK is the afternoon into evening tonight. Then maybe another small shot on Sunday.

Really disappointing, as this would have been a nice 1-3" for most of the state.

[Bunty]

[jn1780]

I will feel fine as long as a colder end of summer doesn't turn into a colder winter.

[Anonymous.]

Been a while since update, since we were stuck northwest of the tropical mess down south.

Moisture has edged back up into OK overnight, we may see a few showers pop off around southern and central OK late today, otherwise humid and mild with this cloud cover.

Friday night looks like a good shot at rain and thunderstorms as a front comes sweeping out of the NW and collides with the tropical moisture over OK. This looks like a late night event, possibly into early Saturday morning.

Another tropical system coming up through the Baja will affect OK's weather next week with tropical energy coming out daily. This is the same thing that was forecast the last week, but the tropical depression that formed over the northern Gulf and southern states, robbed the moisture and track.

QPF 7-day projections showing 2-4 inches of rain over most of the state. This, in turn with cloud cover, will result in the lower than average temperatures.

[Eddie1]

Looks good, lets hope it happens.

[OKCisOK4me]

Darn it...I really want to go hiking down in Charon's Garden!

[Anonymous.]

Moisture, thus humidity, returning to the state right now. Chance of some rain early Tuesday morning. Still some possible chances Wednesday and then right now looks like the best shot for rain is Thursday evening.

So basically a chance of rain all week, but not everyone will see the rain. Only the lucky ones. Some storms could be temporarily severe if firing off in afternoon with heating.

[Pete]

The recent break from the humidity was more of a relief than the drop in temps.

I bet if you did some research and comparison you'd find that since early June we have been running at the highest dew points / heat index for a very long time and maybe even ever.

Not only does it make things incredibly uncomfortable, the humidity helps retain the heat and thus it never cools off at night or in the morning.

[LocoAko]

The recent break from the humidity was more of a relief than the drop in temps.

I bet if you did some research and comparison you'd find that since early June we have been running at the highest dew points / heat index for a very long time and maybe even ever.

Not only does it make things incredibly uncomfortable, the humidity helps retain the heat and thus it never cools off at night or in the morning.

Your perceptions are spot on.

The data for August isn't available yet since the month isn't over, but both June and July featured average maximum daily heat indices that were 2-5F higher than average:




... which stems primarily from daily average dewpoints running 4-6F above average, particularly in July (and for much of early August).




Actual high temperatures were right around normal for both June and July, so it has definitely been the moisture causing the worse-than-average heat indices.

In fact, for the north OKC Mesonet site as an example, the maximum daily Heat Index was 98F or higher every single day between June 14th and August 11th this year and was almost always above 100F during that period.

[John1744]

The humidity is just soul sucking. I do a decent amount of work outside and earlier this month I couldn't be outside for more than a half hour without a break and being drenched in sweat. If I ever move away a place with low humidity is so gonna be a factor for me.

[Pete]

Depressed is too strong a word but I was really in a funk since the heat and humidity kicked in around early June until just recently.

I'm still adjusting to moving back and I knew the summers would be the biggest challenge, but still...

It's just like when someone moves to a cold climate for the first time. It's the same feeling of being trapped indoors with absolutely no relief for months.

I went out with friends last Thursday and we sat outside at a couple of places and they all thought I was drunk when I wasn't; I was just so happy to be free of the oppressive weather, at least for a while.

And I have to say, people here might not get depressed over the heat but they sure get cranky. Bring on the fall!!

[turnpup]

^^^^^

"I'm not drunk, really! It's just the weather!"

That would've been a funny conversation to overhear.

[Roger S]

I've had a lot of friends complain about it this year but I guess I've just done a great job of staying acclimated because I've not let it slow me down a bit when it comes to doing stuff outdoors.

[Anonymous.]

Decent cluster of showers and storms headed directly towards OKC, should arrive around the lunch hour.

[Pete]

Humidity returned last night and I woke up and the low temperature had barely broken 80 as a result.

I wish someone could explain why we have been in this tropic pattern since early June... And without hardly any rain.