2015-16 OKC Thunder

[dankrutka]

Nobody cares about great players who didn't win. How many ads have you seen featuring Ewing, Malone, Iverson, or Billions lately? MJ, Magic, Shaq?

If he doesn't win a few championships before he retires, nobody will consider him an all-time great who is worthy of representing something a company is trying to sell, nor will people buy KD specific productos.

That's just business.

Again, I'm not saying he should or would take a major pay-cut. He probable won't.

But if he doesn't win a few championships and push toward being a Top 15/20 player all-time, his brand takes a serious hit and his future earning potential through his brand is greatly diminished.

I absolutely believe he'll take the max with a player option next year (and possibly the following as well).

I just hope for his sake that he signs a contract that enables his team to deliver what *he* needs to win a championship.

What I do know is that he's not on the level of LeBron where he can work with very little and almost single-handedly bring home a championship.

Yeah, I disagree. But, even more than that, what's your point? KD is competing for championships every year and will likely continue to do so barring injury. He certainly could win one in OKC next year... or he could leave for supposedly greener pastures next year and not win one. Championships are tough to win and there's nothing that guarantees one. KD could sacrifice for the team and not win a title or not sacrifice and win one.

KD is incredibly marketable and will continue to be just that. I think you're drastically overstating the connection between a title now (much less three titles) and his marketability in retirement. Because he's already 9 years in and is one of the most marketable players on planet earth. Besides that, there's just no evidence you're correct. Charles Barkley is incredibly marketable and you think winning one title 25 years ago would make a gigantic marketing difference? Barkley, like KD, is marketable because of his personality. KD will continue to be very marketable. Of course, titles help and are great, but this all-or-nothing black/white three title analysis doesn't hold up.

And the last part about LeBron "single handedly bringing home a title" is silly. Did you watch Kyrie Irving in the last five games of that series? It's no coincidence that LeBron's three titles all were accompanied by great play by his teammates. No player wins a title alone. KD is a top three player in the league already. LeBron is arguably the second best player of all time. Downgrading KD at LeBron's expense means you might as well downgrade all NBA players because he's the best of his generation.

[BlackmoreRulz]

Frankly, I'm more worried that Russel will leave next year than I am about KD leaving this year.

Dirk has supposedly opted out of his contract with the Mav's.......man, he would slot in with the Thunder so well.

[dankrutka]

Dirk has supposedly opted out of his contract with the Mav's.......man, he would slot in with the Thunder so well.

Dirk opting out is just a formality contract thing. He's going back to the Mavs and has already committed to doing so unless they tank, which they're not doing. But, yeah, he'd be great off the bench.

[Teo9969]

Yeah, I disagree. But, even more than that, what's your point? KD is competing for championships every year and will likely continue to do so barring injury. He certainly could win one in OKC next year... or he could leave for supposedly greener pastures next year and not win one. Championships are tough to win and there's nothing that guarantees one. KD could sacrifice for the team and not win a title or not sacrifice and win one.

KD is incredibly marketable and will continue to be just that. I think you're drastically overstating the connection between a title now (much less three titles) and his marketability in retirement. Because he's already 9 years in and is one of the most marketable players on planet earth. Besides that, there's just no evidence you're correct. Charles Barkley is incredibly marketable and you think winning one title 25 years ago would make a gigantic marketing difference? Barkley, like KD, is marketable because of his personality. KD will continue to be very marketable. Of course, titles help and are great, but this all-or-nothing black/white three title analysis doesn't hold up.

And the last part about LeBron "single handedly bringing home a title" is silly. Did you watch Kyrie Irving in the last five games of that series? It's no coincidence that LeBron's three titles all were accompanied by great play by his teammates. No player wins a title alone. KD is a top three player in the league already. LeBron is arguably the second best player of all time. Downgrading KD at LeBron's expense means you might as well downgrade all NBA players because he's the best of his generation.

Barkley also started on the Dream Team. Being a notorious player in a more notorious time for USA basketball certainly enhances your public allure. He also provides a certain caricature that makes him useful for TV. KD will not be working in broadcasting when he retires. Barkley's personality is far far faaaarrr more marketable than KD's. KD is a pretty dull personality. He's likeable, but forgetable as a personality.

He's currently marketable because he's good and he has acheived. But KD himself noticed the "what have you done lately" demand of the US public enough to verbalize that he thought it was ridiculous how little attention he got this season. He was a bit more eloquent, but that was the heart of his message. He is no longer a Top 2 face of the league and will not be until he wins a championship.

I feel you're looking at this too much as a historian of the game. You love basketball so of course names like Malone, Iverson, Ewing are always fresh in your mind and therefore marketable. You'll always remember KD even if he doesn't win a championship. If he stays, he will always be marketable in OKC regardless. But if you think kids in California are going to buy KDs at a worthwhile rate to Nike in 2025 if he hasn't won a few championships, forget it.

As for the Lebron comment, of course he needed help from teammates...nobody does it alone. But when you lead both teams in every major statistical category, there is a sense that he went beyond simply being the best player in the series. Replace Lebron with KD and CLE loses in 5. That's not a knock on KD, it's just an admission of his limits. He's not good enough to not have more than just Russell and Steven. He's surrounded right now about as well as he is going to be surrounded for the rest of his career, and what he's surrounded with right now is probably not sustainable in the long run unless people take pay cuts, and it hasn't yet produced a championship (though very close)

Maybe if we had draft picks I'd be more encouraged about nobody making major sacrifices, but we're missing 2 of the next 3 1st rounds, so we don't have much cheap labor coming our way. OKC needs some help with CBA negotiations next summer if OKC is going to sustain all the quality pieces they have. If the Luxury tax gets substantially refigured, I'll be more optimistic. But this team is looking at being $40M over the tax line for the 2018/19 season which amounts to a $120M tax bill, or a roster that costs about $300M to field...And, as Urbanized has said, it's a business, so we all know that that is not going to happen.

[dankrutka]

I will point out that for KD's "dull personality" and all of Barkley's personality and Dream Team notoriety, KD has been for more marketed, and made far more money from it (adjusting for inflation), than Barkley ever did. And it's not even close. So, if Barkley had so much going for him then how come KD is doing so much better in terms of marketing opportunities during his career?

I really do believe if KD's career continues as is, even without a title, he'll have fantastic opportunities -- marketing and otherwise -- in front of him for the rest of his life. If you want proof, how about George Gervin? George Gervin was not the player KD is, he never won an NBA title, and yet he was (a) selected as a top 50 player of all time, (b) is still well remembered considering how long ago he played, and (c) is still being featured in major commercials today (see his current add with Dwyane Wade).

Your point was that KD needs three titles quickly or he's going to fall off the face of the earth. I don't agree that that's the case.

[Teo9969]

And I guess what I'm trying to say in the current CBA teams are going to be forced to choose between multiple superstars and depth. But you can't have both. The only issue is that because the league didn't form in 2011 and stay relatively stable since then in terms of money, you have a team out there like Golden State who is artificially loaded and will be for the next few years, whereas OKC realistically only has next year as an opportunity to compete with this same roster, because it's too expensive to maintain and all the major pieces come up for contract after next year (except for Kanter).

The killer is that the luxury tax brackets are done in $5M increments. When this was done, $5M was like 8.6% of the cap...now it's 4.5%, so to get into that $3.75 per $1 over bracket, it takes being less than 20% of the cap over the tax line. Which means if you pick up that 3rd all-star to go along with 2 superstars, you're already approaching the cap and realistically you get 1 or 2 more good players and you're already at the luxury tax. You basically have to fill the rest of your roster in with Kyle Singler's if you want to avoid approaching the high tax brackets.

So the duty is going to be on the superstars to take less money if they want to play with other superstars and quality teams, or to negotiate a much more advantageous CBA.

[dankrutka]

While the salary cap presents challenges to keeping this team in tact, there are ways to construct a roster that could work. For example, if Alex Abrines is brought over and pans out then he could be a cheap, but valuable, piece. If Josh Huestis pans out then he could potentially join the rotation. Kyle Singler could return to his level of play in Detroit. Cam Payne could, and I expect him to, step up and be a rotation player on a rookie deal. Kanter could be traded for less expensive role players.

It'll be tough for OKC to keep this roster in tact without sacrifice, but if there aren't financial sacrifices from the stars there are other ways to build a championship roster. It's not easy, but not impossible either.

[Teo9969]

I will point out that for KD's "dull personality" and all of Barkley's personality and Dream Team notoriety, KD has been for more marketed, and made far more money from it (adjusting for inflation), than Barkley ever did. And it's not even close. So, if Barkley had so much going for him then how come KD is doing so much better in terms of marketing opportunities during his career?

I really do believe if KD's career continues as is, even without a title, he'll have fantastic opportunities -- marketing and otherwise -- in front of him for the rest of his life. If you want proof, how about George Gervin? George Gervin was not the player KD is, he never won an NBA title, and yet he was (a) selected as a top 50 player of all time, (b) is still well remembered considering how long ago he played, and (c) is still being featured in major commercials today (see his current add with Dwyane Wade).

Your point was that KD needs three titles quickly or he's going to fall off the face of the earth. I don't agree that that's the case.

He's done it because he's been amazing in his career. I'm just telling you that being amazing only gets you so far. The examples of superstars who are now faceless to many casual fans far outweigh the few antecdotes that you've thrown out. People are remembered for being winners.

And as for George Gervin, he "invented" the finger roll and people constantly talk about it because it's among the most elegant plays in all of sports. What has Kevin invented in basketball? The rip-move?

I'm not bashing Kevin here man. I'm being realistic with how our culture treats winning. I'm not saying Kevin is going to end up poor. What I'm trying to communicate is that 3+ championships can ABSOLUTELY be the difference between making $5M/year post-retirment in endorsements and making $15M/year in post-retirement endorsements.

Sure, if he takes the pay-cut now, he's not guaranteed a championship, and if you're looking at this strictly from a business perspective, a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush. But if he projects a little into the future, I think he could see that making a sizable sacrifice now has the chance to pay dividends in the future, both for his financial situation and more importantly, for his legacy.

The dude is a hall of famer, and he's going to be worth hundreds of millions of dollars regardless. I really do wish him the best because he seems to be a genuinely great human being unlike many of his athlete counterparts. I want to pay him and Russ and Steve-O the max and see them bring 7 straight championships to OKC. But reality is not so kind. Reality seems to be that KD is not on Jordan and Lebron's level, so he needs more help than they do. There's no shame in that. I'm just saying that it would be good for him to really dig into how worthwhile sacrifice can be.

[dankrutka]

I see what you're saying, but I just don't think KD can, or should, look at it that way. And he almost surely won't. No player has left millions on the table in the middle of their prime. KD shouldn't have to do that and I think there's almost no chance he does. If it was such a great business move then other stars would do it, but no stars do until the end of their careers.

The funny thing is that even if KD signs the full max next year he'll still be dramatically underpaid. Without the CBA, KD could probably make something insane like 70 million a year in a true free market.

Anyway, if the Thunder can get KD to re-sign for any price then it's great. The owners and GM will have to figure out how to build a roster around KD then. That's there jobs and that's who should shoulder that responsibility, not KD.

[Teo9969]

If the prestige part of the equation doesn't really matter to the extent that I think it does/should, then it's really a pretty easy decision. If he wants the formula that gives him the best blend of money and championships, then the decision is pretty simple: Go to Golden State now. Re-signing with the Thunder as a monetary decision will hurt his chances at championshps. Re-signing with OKC in a way more conducive to winning championships will hurt his wallet.

He can get his wallet and his championships at Golden State quite easily. They'd likely whip out the next 3 pretty easily before Klay comes up for a new contract where they'd have to figure out if it's worth paying $300M for a roster.

[dankrutka]

Well, he would actually sacrifice money by going to Golden State because the Thunder can pay him more per the CBA.

But, yes, if just wants to win championships at any cost -- Golden State is probably the best move. But obviously switching over to a team that's already won a title without you could potentially diminish his legacy as a competitor in the eyes of a lot of fans.

[Teo9969]

Well, he would actually sacrifice money by going to Golden State because the Thunder can pay him more per the CBA.

But, yes, if just wants to win championships at any cost -- Golden State is probably the best move. But obviously switching over to a team that's already won a title without you could potentially diminish his legacy as a competitor in the eyes of a lot of fans.

But this is exactly the point I'm trying to make with everything above. Legacy matters. A lot. And if he doesn't bring home titles, his legacy is meh. It's "He was never quite good enough". But if he joins somebody to get those titles, it's also meh. It's "He wasn't good enough to do it by himself". And that's fine. There's no shame in being a Top 25-50 player of all-time. I just think he wants more.

[dankrutka]

Which he can do... by re-signing with the Thunder at the max next year. That's the thing, he doesn't need to chase titles or sacrifice money to accomplish his goals.

[AP]

Can we bring everyone back if he goes for max next year? Along with russell at max and everyone else who is expiring... I really don't know, that's why I'm asking.

[dankrutka]

Can we bring everyone back if he goes for max next year? Along with russell at max and everyone else who is expiring... I really don't know, that's why I'm asking.

Probably not. Players that will get new contracts this year or next include: KD (max), Russ (max), Serge, Dion, Roberson, and Adams (maybe max). Serge and Dion could get close too. All these guys are going on the market right as the cap explodes and every team has a ton of cap space. Players are going to be overpaid. The Thunder should be okay next season, but 2017-2018 will require some decisions.

But, that's where good GMs do their work. If the Thunder, for example, can't get Dion and Roberson on a reasonable deals then the Thunder could turn to Alex Abrines and Josh Huestis. That's why it's important to have players in the pipeline with affordable contracts. If they don't pan out then the Thunder would have to get creative. Again, if you re-sign KD and Russ then you're already in a spot better than 25 other teams. You've just got to make a few of the right moves. We'll see... Lots of variables right now.

[Urbanized]

...But, yes, if just wants to win championships at any cost -- Golden State is probably the best move. But obviously switching over to a team that's already won a title without you could potentially diminish his legacy as a competitor in the eyes of a lot of fans.

That's a good point, not to mention the fact that chemistry is not always automatic. History is replete with superstars landing on a new team that seemed like a lock to win a ring on arrival, only to whiff. Does anyone remember LeBron's first year with the Heat? The year when it was supposed to be automatic that he, Wade and Bosh bring home a trophy? Oops, forgot about those pesky Mavs. The best laid plans of mice and men...

Or how about Shaq playing with Kobe on a loaded Lakers team FOR THREE YEARS before winning a title? Chemistry matters. And honestly, as bitter as the WCF was this year I'll bet KD feels like he has unfinished business with those guys more than wanting to share a locker room with them. Maybe not. Who knows? But at least he knows 100% how he will mesh with the Thunder lineup next year. He also knows that the Thunder was capable of beating GSW, and probably would have but for some shadiness. That probably counts for something.

[Teo9969]

Probably not. Players that will get new contracts this year or next include: KD (max), Russ (max), Serge, Dion, Roberson, and Adams (maybe max). Serge and Dion could get close too. All these guys are going on the market right as the cap explodes and every team has a ton of cap space. Players are going to be overpaid. The Thunder should be okay next season, but 2017-2018 will require some decisions.

But, that's where good GMs do their work. If the Thunder, for example, can't get Dion and Roberson on a reasonable deals then the Thunder could turn to Alex Abrines and Josh Huestis. That's why it's important to have players in the pipeline with affordable contracts. If they don't pan out then the Thunder would have to get creative. Again, if you re-sign KD and Russ then you're already in a spot better than 25 other teams. You've just got to make a few of the right moves. We'll see... Lots of variables right now.

Serge will not approach max money, he is clearly at best an amazing role player ($20Mish). Dion could approach max because he's young, and he'd only be at about 20% of cap space in 2017.

If Roberson is our answer at SG he would be worth every penny he is paid, which would be no more than $10M. If he crashes down to earth next season and shoots the way he did in 2015, He's not touching 8 figures.

If Adams becomes a Max level player, then we'll definitely have to punt at least one of Ibaka, Kanter, or Waiters and possibly 2. At that point we'd need to hope that Roberson's performances over 10 game stretches mimics or bests his last 10 performances this season.

If that doesn't happen, you just have to hope that The Big 3 and one other solid role-player can lead a team of minimum contract players to a championship.

It's just not a very bright outlook. We seem to consistently be too talented to be affordable and sustainable yet not talented enough to win. Next year seems pretty much win or bust. No doubt we have the capability to do it, but whether we do or not rests on KD and Russ to put it together. The rest of the team already did (though continued improvement is always welcomed)

[Teo9969]

That's a good point, not to mention the fact that chemistry is not always automatic. History is replete with superstars landing on a new team that seemed like a lock to win a ring on arrival, only to whiff. Does anyone remember LeBron's first year with the Heat? The year when it was supposed to be automatic that he, Wade and Bosh bring home a trophy? Oops, forgot about those pesky Mavs. The best laid plans of mice and men...

Or how about Shaq playing with Kobe on a loaded Lakers team FOR THREE YEARS before winning a title? Chemistry matters. And honestly, as bitter as the WCF was this year I'll bet KD feels like he has unfinished business with those guys more than wanting to share a locker room with them. Maybe not. Who knows? But at least he knows 100% how he will mesh with the Thunder lineup next year. He also knows that the Thunder was capable of beating GSW, and probably would have but for some shadiness. That probably counts for something.

These are examples of teams that needed a major piece to arrive. GSW is a proven product that doesn't need KD to win, but would be vastly better with him. Not too dissimilar to how seamlessly LaMarcus Aldridge fit I to SAS this year.

If you really think about KD in Golden State, it's terrifying.

[dankrutka]

It's just not a very bright outlook. We seem to consistently be too talented to be affordable and sustainable yet not talented enough to win.

Healthy Thunder seasons:
2012: NBA Finals; 2nd best team in the NBA
(2013-2015: Major injuries)
2016: Almost beat best regular season of all time; 3rd best team in the NBA

Due to injuries, it's really unfair to say the Thunder "are not talented enough to win." They're a top 4 NBA team and sometimes breaks have to go your way. The Warriors got more breaks last season then the Thunder have had in the last 5 years. Hopefully things even out.

Regarding the salaries, there's no point in talking about what players are worth because most players will have offers way above what they're worth. Is Serge a role player? Yes, but so is Tristan Thompson and he was the third most valuable player on a title team. Serge holds a similar role on his team even if he's a totally different offensive player. Serge is a fantastic shooter, versatile defender, and great rim protector. There is no question that Serge is an overall better player than Kanter, who just received a max contract last season and was unplayable in the Thunder's most important games of the year. Everyone needs to brace themselves for the exploding cap, the salaries are going to be insane.

The best move besides KD resigning that I could see happening is Adams re-signing this summer for anything under the max... But I wouldn't be mad if he signed a max either. A max signed this season will be better than one signed next season.

[Teo9969]

Adams signing a max extension now vs. later is the same. The definition is applied the year in which it takes affect. But yes, it would be nice for him to sign an extension now for something like 4years/$80M or less.

Kanter did not receive a max contract and he also signed a "preparation" contract (I don't think we ever came up with a term for the contracts that were made last summer). At any rate, Kanter was 23.4% of our cap this season and will be 18.1%/16.7%/16.9% in subsequent years. Contracts this year will look a lot more reasonable in relation to the $94M cap, but the point being that Ibaka will get nowhere near a 30% contract. A 20% contract is probably his ceiling which in his UFA will be about $21.5M.

[dankrutka]

NBA draft tonight... It'll be interesting to see if the Thunder find a way to acquire a pick so they could potentially have a rookie scale or cheap contract down the road.

[Laramie]

Thunder should keep the players they have together to build trust & chemistry; those ingredients were missing in the last three games in the Golden State series in which we had the Warriors down 3 - 1.

We haven't any draft picks; he's what happened to them:

2016 First-Round Order

26. Philadelphia (From Oklahoma City via Denver and Cleveland)

2016 Second-Round Order

53. Denver (From Charlotte via Oklahoma City)
56. Denver (From Oklahoma City)

http://www.nba.com/news/2016-nba-draft-order/

[AP]

Marc Spears from ESPN saying we're shopping Serge.

[dankrutka]

Marc Spears from ESPN saying we're shopping Serge.

I didn't see that coming, but you also have to take draft day rumors with a grain of salt.

I wouldn't think the Thunder would even consider trading Serge for young players or draft picks unless KD already indicated he's gone (which I highly doubt). The Thunder are in win-now mode and Serge is very valuable, particularly against the Warriors. He's very versatile defensively. He was also by far the Thunder's best three point shooter in the playoffs... in fact, he shot 3s at the highest percentage of any player in the playoffs. Not that Twitter is a great gauge, but I'm kind of stunned how many OKC fans seem to be ready to move on from Serge. Even with his numbers regressing a little, they're really taking what he adds for granted. The only thing that makes sense to me is if the Thunder are packaging two guys who are due to get big pay days for one established max level player (e.g., Jimmy Butler, Al Horford). Anything else feels like a potential disaster...

[OkiePoke]

I didn't see that coming, but you also have to take draft day rumors with a grain of salt.

I wouldn't think the Thunder would even consider trading Serge for young players or draft picks unless KD already indicated he's gone (which I highly doubt). The Thunder are in win-now mode and Serge is very valuable, particularly against the Warriors. He's very versatile defensively. He was also by far the Thunder's best three point shooter in the playoffs... in fact, he shot 3s at the highest percentage of any player in the playoffs. Not that Twitter is a great gauge, but I'm kind of stunned how many OKC fans seem to be ready to move on from Serge. Even with his numbers regressing a little, they're really taking what he adds for granted. The only thing that makes sense to me is if the Thunder are packaging two guys who are due to get big pay days for one established max level player (e.g., Jimmy Butler, Al Horford). Anything else feels like a potential disaster...

I don't think they are looking for a pick. The Thunder are in a win now mode and need to acquire someone ready to play. Butler's name has been coming up as a potential trade, but everyone wants him.

FO is trying to clear cap space to sign WB with the deal with the expectation that KD re-signs or trying to make a trade with the expectation that KD leaves with WB the year after. Could be viewed either way.