2015-16 OKC Thunder

[Jersey Boss]

Pretty poor showing from the "best team in history." Taken to seven in both WCF and Finals, blown out in multiple games, closed out at home by a team who not only had been down 3-1 but who fired their head coach earlier in the season and was not really expected to compete. Heck, the Cavs weren't even Lebron James' best team ever...and they beat the greatest team of all time!

In other news, LeBron is good.

Going to give you props on your earlier call out of those of us labeling the Warriors one of the best in NBA history. I don't believe anybody did not expect the Cavs to compete after firing Blatt however. Interesting that the Cavs and Penguins both fired their head coach after the season started on their way to their respective championships.

[Bill Robertson]

Even with that, KD would be sacrificing a huge amount of money. I actually think it would be unprecedented. The Spurs guys and Dirk didn't do it until far later in their careers.

I know he'd still be giving up a huge amount, just not quite as much.

[Urbanized]

Guys, there is ZERO chance that he signs a long-term deal, here or anywhere. It wouldn't simply be a nice gesture or even a nice chunk of change for the team to work with; it would be a colossal business mistake. Expect a one year deal with whoever, or a two year deal with player option on second year. Personally I think he does this deal with the Thunder for a number of reasons, but no matter who it is with, it won't be a long term deal.

If he signs a shorter deal, when that one expires he will be a ten year player. Right now, he can only command 30% of a team's cap (any team). But if he waits til he is a 10 year guy, he can get 35% of a team's cap. For 2016-2017 the team cap is expected to be $92 million (last time I looked), and for 2017-2018 it expected to jump to $107 million. If you look at those numbers and apply a 35% of cap vs 30% of cap, - AND if you wait another year to sign the long-term deal - you can see that the difference is TENS of millions of salary to the player over the course of a five year deal.

I'm all for players using their salary structure to help sign good players around them, and honestly hope KD and Russ buy in and leave some crumbs on the table to help out there, but you can't expect a player to give up family-altering, generational money for the sake of being a good teammate. Giving up a few million here or there to grease the wheels? Absolutely. Giving up tens of millions? Ridiculous to ask, and no agent worth his salt would allow such a thing.

Personally, I expect a two year deal with player option on second, or perhaps just a straight one year. But the two year plays better.

[dankrutka]

Yeah, I agree. It would be unprecedented to sign a long term deal and sacrifice that kind of money.

The things is the way the salary cap worked out, if KD takes the full 35% of the cap AND the Thunder try to keep this team together, it'll be really tough to fill in supplemental pieces. Now, KD could make some smaller sacrifices in a long term deal if he so chose.

It's going to be interesting to see if Waiters is willing to take a little less to stay with the Thunder. If he decides to go to the open market then he might find a team that will pay him close to a max. There will be an unprecedented amount of cap room this summer and a lot of teams won't have a lot of good options -- which will lead to players getting overpaid. However, Dion has had a rocky career without ever having the same coach in consecutive seasons. He talked about wanting to stay with OKC, but if he wants what he's worth on the market then it could be tough for OKC. Of course, OKC could match any absurd offer and then make tough decisions down the road. The bad news is, like Kanter last year, if Waiters gets offered a max, the Thunder really won't be able to go out and get someone else. It's kind of Waiters or bust.

Similarly, the Thunder can try to get Adams and Roberson to sign extensions. Adams extension could be another max contract, but a max this year isn't as bad as a max in the future. Roberson might take a long deal, but it's more likely he bets on his continued improvement and tests the market next year.

In short, the Thunder cannot afford to maintain team this team -- much less improve it -- without some players making financial sacrifices. It's kind of an unfair situation for players too. In my opinion, players shouldn't have to sacrifice for rich owners who already benefit immensely from the public subsidizing stadiums along with a very owner-friendly CBA, but it's up to them. If players decide to take their market value then the Thunder will have to decide who is expendable (probably Kanter, maybe Roberson or Waiters) and how they'll replace them. Again, everything about the recent CBAs have worked against the Thunder maybe more than any team. It's tough, but it's a good problem to have with KD and Russ in play...

[Teo9969]

Guys, there is ZERO chance that he signs a long-term deal, here or anywhere. It wouldn't simply be a nice gesture or even a nice chunk of change for the team to work with; it would be a colossal business mistake. Expect a one year deal with whoever, or a two year deal with player option on second year. Personally I think he does this deal with the Thunder for a number of reasons, but no matter who it is with, it won't be a long term deal.

If he signs a shorter deal, when that one expires he will be a ten year player. Right now, he can only command 30% of a team's cap (any team). But if he waits til he is a 10 year guy, he can get 35% of a team's cap. For 2016-2017 the team cap is expected to be $92 million (last time I looked), and for 2017-2018 it expected to jump to $107 million. If you look at those numbers and apply a 35% of cap vs 30% of cap, - AND if you wait another year to sign the long-term deal - you can see that the difference is TENS of millions of salary to the player over the course of a five year deal.

I'm all for players using their salary structure to help sign good players around them, and honestly hope KD and Russ buy in and leave some crumbs on the table to help out there, but you can't expect a player to give up family-altering, generational money for the sake of being a good teammate. Giving up a few million here or there to grease the wheels? Absolutely. Giving up tens of millions? Ridiculous to ask, and no agent worth his salt would allow such a thing.

Personally, I expect a two year deal with player option on second, or perhaps just a straight one year. But the two year plays better.

He already has family-altering, multi generational money. He could take a ridiculous $15M/year deal and he'll still probably approach $500M by the time he retires. No amount of money can buy him a championship, and he will never make as much as an NBA player as he does as a brand. Unfortunately for him, his brand will be relatively worthless in the long run if he retires with less than 3 championships.

I certainly don't EXPECT him to do anything other than take the 2-year deal. But taking the money and never winning a championship in his prime could be just as colossal of a business mistake.

He can make up whatever money he leaves on the table in his 40s and 50s. He won't be on an NBA roster past 42, and probably not past 39. And realistically he only has 5-7 more years of being *the* guy on his team.

[dankrutka]

Unfortunately for him, his brand will be relatively worthless in the long run if he retires with less than 3 championships.

Lol. What are you talking about?

[Urbanized]

I never understand the whole "he already has..." line of reasoning. It's a business. I don't doubt for a second that someone can (or will) make concessions here and there, especially when it is beneficial in another area, such as facilitation of a championship. But to expect that someone will forgo tens of millions of dollars because they already happen to be rich is lunacy. If he did that I'm pretty sure his agent would walk, and probably should. Being a part of a deal like that would ruin him with other clients.

Guys, it. is. a. business. The decision will primarily be a BUSINESS decision, not an emotional one. Fortunately for OKC, right now we make as much or more business sense than just about any other team. Certainly for next year. If he truly would like to be here, it makes the decision so much easier. But mark it down, he won't leave TENS of millions on the table.

[sooner88]

I never understand the whole "he already has..." line of reasoning. It's a business. I don't doubt for a second that someone can (or will) make concessions here and there, especially when it is beneficial in another area, such as facilitation of a championship. But to expect that someone will forgo tens of millions of dollars because they already happen to be rich is lunacy. If he did that I'm pretty sure his agent would walk, and probably should. Being a part of a deal like that would ruin him with other clients.

Guys, it. is. a. business. The decision will primarily be a BUSINESS decision, not an emotional one. Fortunately for OKC, right now we make as much or more business sense than just about any other team. Certainly for next year. If he truly would like to be here, it makes the decision so much easier. But mark it down, he won't leave TENS of millions on the table.

It's roughly a $50mm difference waiting one year. It's up to the Thunder to figure out how all the pieces fit together, but KD would have to be crazy to sign a max contract this year.

[Urbanized]

^^^^^^^^^
Exactly. And expecting someone to forgo that type of money for the feel-good factor or because you already have a bunch of money is a reality disconnect. Not a single person on this board would do that in real life, nor should anyone expect that you would.

[Laramie]

Just continue to get this weird feeling that Kevin Durant had already made his mind up about resigning with the Thunder prior to the 2nd round series against San Antonio. We could be in for a real bombshell.

[Urbanized]

Resigning? Do you mean re-signing, or resigning, as in quitting?

[Laramie]

Resigning? Do you mean re-signing, or resigning, as in quitting?

LMAO, yes Urbanized that a word with a double edged sword.

Exercise his option to stay on board. K.D. probably made plans to go elsewhere long before we played the Spurs.

[Urbanized]

I'm not following. You think he was set to leave, but now he is staying?

[Laramie]

I'm not following. You think he was set to leave, but now he is staying?

I think he made plans to leave and now he's leaving. There's probably been some wheels put in motion that Durant can't rewind.

K. D. is GONE!

[dankrutka]

Well, whatever he does, we'll find out next month.

[Urbanized]

Yeah, no sense fretting about it. Honestly I'll be surprised if he does. From a strictly business sense and from the standpoint of contending, OKC on a short-term contract probably makes the most sense for him. That is not based on emotion; just some pretty dry analysis. The short term deal - regardless of team - is a lock in my mind.

If you are doing a short term deal and want to leave this situation you only want to go somewhere where you have as good or better chance to win a ring. That list is short and debatable; Spurs, GSW, Cavs. Those teams are pretty set, and I'm not sure he's looking to go anywhere to be someone else's second banana. Not to mention there are enough reasons to think the Thunder as-configured will be as good or better than those teams next year, anyway.

Rebuilding is only something you can be willing to stomach at your next long term destination, and even then it can't be a three or four year rebuild, lest age begin to creep in as a factor and the championship window close.

So, given all of those variables, the Thunder makes more sense than just about anyone, and then he bides his time for 35% of a monstrous cap. I believe the real drama comes next year, not this year.

[Laramie]

Yeah, no sense fretting about it. Honestly I'll be surprised if he does. From a strictly business sense and from the standpoint of contending, OKC on a short-term contract probably makes the most sense for him. That is not based on emotion; just some pretty dry analysis. The short term deal - regardless of team - is a lock in my mind.

If you are doing a short term deal and want to leave this situation you only want to go somewhere where you have as good or better chance to win a ring. That list is short and debatable; Spurs, GSW, Cavs. Those teams are pretty set, and I'm not sure he's looking to go anywhere to be someone else's second banana. Not to mention there are enough reasons to think the Thunder as-configured will be as good or better than those teams next year, anyway.

Rebuilding is only something you can be willing to stomach at your next long term destination, and even then it can't be a three or four year rebuild, lest age begin to creep in as a factor and the championship window close.

So, given all of those variables, the Thunder makes more sense than just about anyone, and then he bides his time for 35% of a monstrous cap. I believe the real drama comes next year, not this year.

Honestly, I truly hope this is the case. Just keep getting bad vibes about this whole scenario.

[dankrutka]

Honestly, I truly hope this is the case. Just keep getting bad vibes about this whole scenario.

From where? Pretty much everything KD has said and done recently bodes well for the Thunder. Of course, nothing is guaranteed, but a 2 year deal with a second year player option in OKC makes a ton of sense.

[Laramie]

From where?

Bad vibes; just hope these are false feeling from within. Something about this whole thing doesn't seem right.

[dankrutka]

From where?

Bad vibes; just hope these are false feeling from within. Something about this whole thing doesn't seem right.

Well, let's hope that your bad vibes are misplaced from the state legislature's recent session.

[Jersey Boss]

From where?

Bad vibes; just hope these are false feeling from within. Something about this whole thing doesn't seem right.

Maybe because he is not holding his summer camp in the metro like he has in previous years?

[Bellaboo]

I think he made plans to leave and now he's leaving. There's probably been some wheels put in motion that Durant can't rewind.

K. D. is GONE!

He's not going anywhere, in his exit interview he spoke of his teammates getting better in the off season and they'd be better next year than this year. Also he said OKC was now home.

[dankrutka]

Maybe because he is not holding his summer camp in the metro like he has in previous years?

Good point. That's usually the key indicator for free agents.

No one fully knows what KD will do. We are all operating from an information deficit. However, there are clearly a lot of good signs for OKC. Pretty much every serious NBA analyst has OKC as the heavy favorites for good reason. That doesn't guarantee anything, but we'll find out when we find out.

[Teo9969]

Lol. What are you talking about?

Nobody cares about great players who didn't win. How many ads have you seen featuring Ewing, Malone, Iverson, or Billions lately? MJ, Magic, Shaq?

If he doesn't win a few championships before he retires, nobody will consider him an all-time great who is worthy of representing something a company is trying to sell, nor will people buy KD specific productos.

That's just business.

Again, I'm not saying he should or would take a major pay-cut. He probable won't.

But if he doesn't win a few championships and push toward being a Top 15/20 player all-time, his brand takes a serious hit and his future earning potential through his brand is greatly diminished.

I absolutely believe he'll take the max with a player option next year (and possibly the following as well).

I just hope for his sake that he signs a contract that enables his team to deliver what *he* needs to win a championship.

What I do know is that he's not on the level of LeBron where he can work with very little and almost single-handedly bring home a championship.

[dankrutka]

He's not going anywhere, in his exit interview he spoke of his teammates getting better in the off season and they'd be better next year than this year. Also he said OKC was now home.

So did LeBron's Miami teammates.

I don't at all think the scenarios (or people) are the same, but all of LeBron's teammates expected him back. Most people, including his teammates, were blindsided by his decision.