General Weather Discussion - June 2016

[baralheia]

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[baralheia]

A large swath of the state, from the south-west to the north-east, is under a flood watch through the morning of Thursday, 2016-06-02. NWS forecasts an additional 2" to 4" of rain across the area, especially near and just north of the I-44 corridor. Precipitation is currently increasing in coverage across central Oklahoma but it is expected to remain below severe limits today.

[baralheia]

Flash flood warning
okc125-012045-
/o.new.koun.ff.w.0044.160601t1744z-160601t2045z/
/00000.0.er.000000t0000z.000000t0000z.000000t0000z. oo/

bulletin - eas activation requested
flash flood warning
national weather service norman ok
1244 pm cdt wed jun 1 2016

the national weather service in norman has issued a

* flash flood warning for...
Northwestern pottawatomie county in central oklahoma...

* until 345 pm cdt

* at 1243 pm cdt...doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain along interstate 40
near shawnee. Over an inch of rain has already fallen in less than
30 minutes and additional rainfall near one to two inches is
expected.

* some locations that will experience flooding include...
Shawnee...meeker...johnson...bethel acres and aydelotte.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Turn around...dont drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

Please report flooding to your local law enforcement agency when you
can do so safely.

&&

lat...lon 3532 9689 3532 9705 3542 9704 3547 9694
3546 9678

$$

03

[Bunty]

Message summary...heavy rain and flooding possible through thursday...
.portions of western northern texas and southern oklahoma have received heavy rainfall over the past week. Two to four inches of rainfall can be expected through thursday. Any additional rainfall could result in localized flooding. Flooding will also be possible this afternoon and evening mainly along and just north of the i44 corridor...and along the i40 corridor near a surface boundary.
...flood watch remains in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening...
The flood watch for flash flooding...flooding of creeks and rivers...and flooding of low lying areas continues for
* portions of oklahoma and northern texas...including the following areas...in oklahoma...beckham...blaine...caddo...
Canadian...cleveland...comanche...cotton...custer. ..dewey...
Garfield...garvin...grady...greer...harmon...jacks on...
Kingfisher...kiowa...lincoln...logan...mcclain...n oble...
Oklahoma...payne...roger mills...stephens...tillman and wa****a. In northern texas...foard...hardeman and wilbarger.
* until 7 pm cdt this evening
* localized heavy rainfall will be possible early this afternoon through this evening.
* 1 to 3 inches of rainfall will be possible.

[Anonymous.]

A few more rounds of decent rain to go here in C OK. One coming up now from the SE. Looks like another tonight and maybe in the morning Friday.

Watching Saturday evening for an outside shot at severe weather.

[Easy180]

Seen posts from several weather folks saying it looks like OK is done with the severe weather season.

[jn1780]

Seen posts from several weather folks saying it looks like OK is done with the severe weather season.

Pretty much right on schedule. We will probable be in the low to mid 90's about 2 weeks from now.

[Bunty]

Seen posts from several weather folks saying it looks like OK is done with the severe weather season.

Seeing what the weather will do for the next few days is hard enough, so it's strange anybody would say that for the rest of the storm season. Since there has been deadly tornadoes in mid-June before, I wouldn't trust that prediction or assumption at all.

[Bill Robertson]

Anyone else feel like we moved to Seattle or London and did'nt know it?

[SoonerDave]

Seeing what the weather will do for the next few days is hard enough, so it's strange anybody would say that for the rest of the storm season. Since there has been deadly tornadoes in mid-June before, I wouldn't trust that prediction or assumption at all.

I think it's a general observation. June is historically the wettest month of the year, and May is the typical peak for severe weather. When you approach summertime, the upper air patterns shift such that you don't generally get as many lows ejecting from the deep SW along a lower SW/NE jetstream, and that's when you see the most favorable setups for severe weather. Now, with that big dome of high pressure moving in from the west coast, it wouldn't be at all surprising to see us shift into a more summerlike pattern - one of those big, blocking domes of high pressure, with the jetstream moving farther north.

While you are absolutely 100% correct that we can never say we're "done" with severe weather, (heck, I remember there was a tornado in western OK in flrippin' DECEMBER just a few years back), I think the focus on the general season for its most prevalent occurrence will have passed. I'd have to think that's what the comment was referencing.

[Anonymous.]

Keeping an eye on Tuesday/Wednesday next week for severe weather chances.

[Anonymous.]

Major flooding taking place from Carnegie to Lawton east to McAlester and south of Norman.

This complex will continue to morph northward and looks like it will eventually takeover the OKC area this afternoon. This could be a random significant flashflooding event if the development moves north and sticks around.

[Anonymous.]

Latest model guidance suggests it may skirt around the OKC area.

[Bunty]

Major flooding taking place from Carnegie to Lawton east to McAlester and south of Norman.

Well, yeah, with 5 to 6 plus inches of rain.

[Anonymous.]

Nice morning storms/rain showers for some. OKC region has actually been missing out a lot on the moisture lately, so this is welcomed.

Slight chance of SVR storms this afternoon. SPC has basically outlined the I-44 corridor for greatest threat. Best chances I think are towards the Lawton area and up to OKC. Main threat will be flash flooding, and wind.

[Anonymous.]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0918
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0402 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...RED RIVER VALLEY REGION OF SRN OK/WRN N TX AND
VICINITY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 142102Z - 142230Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WRN N TX AND ADJACENT SRN OK IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WW
MAY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW AN INCREASE IN CU
DEVELOPMENT IN THE AMA-PVW-LBB VICINITY...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF A
DRYLINE AND A WEAK/REMNANT CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW LAID DOWN BY EARLIER
OK CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE CU FIELD IS ALSO NOTED SE
OF CDS...LIKELY INVOF THE OUTFLOW ITSELF. SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOW 70S AND CONTINUED HEATING THROUGH THE LOW 90S ARE COMBINING WITH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO YIELD STRONG DESTABILIZATION...WITH
MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES NOW INTO THE 3000 TO 4000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA.

THOUGH NOT AS CONSISTENT IN EARLIER RUNS THIS MORNING...VARIOUS
VERSIONS OF HRRR OUTPUT ARE CONSISTENTLY -- FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
RUNS -- HINTING AT A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA. AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STORMS
WILL DEVELOP...AND WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
RESIDING ATOP THIS AREA /SUFFICIENT FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT
ROTATION/...RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS. WHILE COVERAGE MAY REMAIN
ISOLATED...RISK MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR WW CONSIDERATION.

..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/14/2016

[Anonymous.]

Extreme heat indices across the southern plains today.

Slight chance of storms developing across NW OK later this afternoon and tracking across the state.

[Anonymous.]

A wetter pattern is showing up on long-term models, beginning around early next week and into July.

[Bunty]

A wetter pattern is showing up on long-term models, beginning around early next week and into July.

I hope it dry for 4th of July fireworks. Boomer Blast in Stillwater draws up to 10,000 people.

[Bobby821]

A wetter pattern is showing up on long-term models, beginning around early next week and into July.

I know it is a little ways out there yet, but how does it look for July 3rd evening time frame precipitation wise and temp wise. Just trying to get an idea as to what the models are hinting at for that day. I have a fireworks show to do that evening. Thanks in advance

[SoonerDave]

A wetter pattern is showing up on long-term models, beginning around early next week and into July.

Okay, not to draw too fine a point on it, but does "wetter" mean a span of time for an increased chance at general rain, or an "uh oh, summer may be washed out " pattern?

[Anonymous.]

Just generally not zero chance of rain for consecutive days. Nothing like a constant washout is showing up. Again, this is 7-15 days away. Nothing close to concrete.

[Anonymous.]

Chance of storms later tonight near I-40 and north is the best chance. Organization looks unlikely, and consider yourself lucky to get rain.

[Anonymous.]

Very slight chance of shower/storms trying to develop in NC OK this afternoon and attempt to backbuild into C OK, chances are slim, but there.

Looking ahead: long-term models still suggest some varying chance of rain/storms every day from about Sunday thru all of July that is in the window (currently July 10).

[Anonymous.]

Storms slowly building south currently. Should be developing in OKC area in the next couple hours, so 5-7pm range.

Flash flood is main threat.