General Weather Discussion - May 2016

[SoonerDave]

Thursday and Friday look like potential PDS type of days, at this time.

Ugh. Sure hope that changes in the next couple of days. Thurs is the last day of school for Moore...be nice to get out of an entire storm season without a serious storm threat during the school year, especially in that area.

[bchris02]

Ugh. Sure hope that changes in the next couple of days. Thurs is the last day of school for Moore...be nice to get out of an entire storm season without a serious storm threat during the school year, especially in that area.

Yeah. Things aren't looking good for Thursday from everything I've seen and that could turn out to be the big day, with central OK directly under the gun. I've seen different forecasts regarding Friday. Hopefully things change between now and then.

[Jesseda]

Yeah kind a stressing since we just had the third year anniversary of what happened and of course thanks to facebook there is that memory section lol. All I know is since my kids school currently doesn't have a shelter, I am not taking that chance and they will be checked out early if anything starts to happen close by. I will be keeping a close eye on the weather updates this week. I was hoping for a slow storm season, already had a shake up with tornados this year, my daughter was down at the ymca camp by davis when that tornado went just north of them, one of the adult volunteers at the camp snapped picture of it, cant believe it was that close to them a entire 5th grade school from moore was down there when all that went down

[bchris02]

Thursday and Friday look like potential PDS type of days, at this time.

Is it too early to tell where the dryline sets up? GFS has it out near the OK/Texas ph border while NAM brings it eastward with a bow around I-40 and very high CAPE in southwestern and north central Oklahoma. If it's out near the OK/Texas border, that usually bodes better for the metro.

[Anonymous.]

Tonight's show is about to start.




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0695
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS...EAST TX/OK PANHANDLES...WEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231918Z - 232115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND NEAR A LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. A MODERATE TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL. BACKED SURFACE WINDS NEAR THE BOUNDARIES
SHOULD ALSO FOSTER A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 1004 MB SURFACE NEAR THE
OK PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST KS BORDER WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE ARCING
SOUTH ACROSS THE EAST TX PANHANDLE TO THE PERMIAN BASIN. AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY WAS EVIDENT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...WITH THE NORTH PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SURGING
WEST. INCREASINGLY AGITATED CU HAS BEEN NOTED NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES
AND LINGERING MLCIN SHOULD BECOME MINIMAL IN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. AIR
MASS BETWEEN THE DRYLINE AND OUTFLOW ACROSS WEST OK AND THE EAST TX
PANHANDLE IS BECOMING STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE LIKELY BETWEEN
2500-3500 J/KG GIVEN UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS SHOULD PROMOTE LARGE HAIL
AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE MODEST AT
PRESENT...BACKED SURFACE WINDS /ESPECIALLY NEAR THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/ AND DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD FAVOR A COUPLE TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS AS WELL.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/23/2016

[Anonymous.]

Is it too early to tell where the dryline sets up? GFS has it out near the OK/Texas ph border while NAM brings it eastward with a bow around I-40 and very high CAPE in southwestern and north central Oklahoma. If it's out near the OK/Texas border, that usually bodes better for the metro.

If you are referring to Thursday, it is very early to tell. But my ballpark is generally from Woodward-Elk City-Altus, line.

[John1744]

Hopefully people are paying attention Friday as they head to the lake and things.

[GoThunder]

Can I play golf in OKC today at 6?

[jn1780]

Can I play golf in OKC today at 6?

yes

[bchris02]

Hopefully people are paying attention Friday as they head to the lake and things.

I've seen different forecasts for Friday. Some are saying it's going to be bad while others are not. Everybody should be weather aware all week.

If there is one day that looks particularly ominous for the OKC area it's Thursday.

In terms of Thursday, is there any chance of morning convection messing things up for the afternoon?

[John1744]

Some of the other forums I follow seem to be questioning the shear potential on Thursday and hopefully that keeps Tornado potential down.

[OkieHornet]

thinking out loud... how early do people need to prepare for the possibility of severe storms? so many days out seems overkill. just stay aware and you'll be fine. it does create awareness, but also the days-out hype does nothing but create stress for so many. it's not like a winter storm where you have to get bread and milk days ahead of time so you'll survive ;–)

[SoonerDave]

thinking out loud... how early do people need to prepare for the possibility of severe storms? so many days out seems overkill. just stay aware and you'll be fine. it does create awareness, but also the days-out hype does nothing but create stress for so many. it's not like a winter storm where you have to get bread and milk days ahead of time so you'll survive ;–)

I am very much inclined to agree. I understand what the various agencies are trying to accomplish, but sometimes too much information can create a numbness to it. For example, a 30% forecast is deemed successful if it hits its mathematical expectation of being right 3 of 10 times - or wrong 7 of 10. The question becomes how the public becomes conditioned to respond to those very kinds of forecasts...especially when they come so far in advance. Its paradoxical that the information can be numbing. But it's an issue I think that merits consideration as forecast products continue to evolve. You can only do so much in preparation for a storm event three, four, or more days out. I, for one, like the information, but I also understand the angst the forecasts can create. Not an easy nut to crack at all.

[bchris02]

Some of the other forums I follow seem to be questioning the shear potential on Thursday and hopefully that keeps Tornado potential down.

What forum is that?

[ou48A]

It does help some in the construction trades and others who work outdoors to know the threats days in advance when planning on the job activity’s that have little or no flexibility.

[John1744]

What forum is that?

The forum is a private contractors for OK/KS/TX forum that has a couple hobbyist storm chasers also! And OKWX_geek on twitter had the same impression.

[jn1780]

The forum is a private contractors for OK/KS/TX forum that has a couple hobbyist storm chasers also! And OKWX_geek on twitter had the same impression.

As we see tonight, storms can really get going once that low level jet kicks in. So if low sheer profiles are just a little bit better than today and tomorrow things can get pretty interesting with the high cape values.

[John1744]

Yeah these storms up by Woodward spun up an impressive tornado pretty quickly.


Also David Payne at 6pm seemed to be hedging his bets more on Friday.

[bchris02]

Also David Payne at 6pm seemed to be hedging his bets more on Friday.

On the other hand, Mike Morgan seems to think Wednesday could be bad. He didn't say anything about Friday. Previously most have agreed that Wednesday wouldn't be a big day except for in maybe far northern Oklahoma.

[SoonerDave]

It appears the SPC has moved the 30% enhanced region for Thursday to western OK, and unless I"m misreading the map, OKC is no longer in that region. Moreover, SPC has only a 15% region for east-central OK for Friday. Wednesday has most of OK in only a "marginal" region (and, again, I just have the hardest time with SPC's rating system. How "marginal" is less of a likelihood than "slight" escapes me, but that's how they do it).

While there continues to be an ongoing environment for possibly severe thunderstorms just about every day this week and even into the weekend, and any individual storm carries its own risk to spin up hail and possibly a tornado, the general discussion from the SPC seems to focus the greatest potential for the most severe weather generally in the west/NW part of the state over the next few days.

Unless I'm just missing something, I would have to say that aside from the normal, cautionary information in the outlooks, I don't see any particularly sobering warnings or advisories about especially dangerous situations in the next few days. Bottom line; it's storm season in OK, and we're in a stormy pattern for the next few days. Just pay attention to what's going on as best you can. Anon, if you think I'm misreading or omitting something, give me a kick in the head and correct me

[Anonymous.]

Yes the TX PH and W OK is definitely the hotspot this week. The reason you must include the areas east of development zone is the possibility of these storms moving east along their own outflow boundaries or collapsing complexes that kind of morph into clusters. A lot of times with very tall storms collapsing, you can have sudden bursts of wind that reach damaging speeds.

Lately the storms are having a hard time becoming sustained off of the dryline and boundary up in NW/N OK. Also a lack of forcing aloft to shove them eastward. This is why you have these nearly stationary supercells out in SW KS down through NW OK and into the TX PH. Tonight (Tuesday), we may have enough forcing to push some storms eastward into the main body of the state - damaging winds will be highest threat.

This development zone is slowly going to be pushing eastward each day this week. Thursday and Friday still have indications of a significant event. Also do not sleep on Wednesday, this will be one of those days where nothing may develop, but if it does - it will be very severe, and very quickly. The development zone for Wednesday looks to be west of I-35 by 20-30 miles and tapering off to the SW.


It is still very early, but next week looks like it will also be very active, Monday already looks potentially significant, at this time.

[bchris02]

Not sure if this is an indication at all, but the TV meteorologists haven't jumped on the hype wagon this time, which is a big change compared to how they've operated all season. So either they've taken the criticism regarding the hype to heart and are waiting until the forecast becomes more clear, or they don't see anything that looks particularly ominous for the OKC area.

[SoonerDave]

Not sure if this is an indication at all, but the TV meteorologists haven't jumped on the hype wagon this time, which is a big change compared to how they've operated all season. So either they've taken the criticism regarding the hype to heart and are waiting until the forecast becomes more clear, or they don't see anything that looks particularly ominous for the OKC area.

I think KWTV has been very measured this season in keeping the hype ratcheted down.

About the only thing they do these days I still wish they would change is their "Tornado Zone" map, which is a relative-risk map in which they highlight one area of an arbitrary risk, color it yellow and label it "LESS LIKELY" (or words to that effect). They then color the rest of the area that is in a relatively higher risk area in bright red and label it "MOST LIKELY." The bright red coloring and labeling creates the illusion of a more serious warning when all they're illustrating is that one area has a higher risk than another, even if the risks is 10% versus 5% (or whatever).

Other than that, my hat's off to Ch 9 this year. Payne's generally doing a good job in a reasonably low-hype way, IMHO.

[Anonymous.]

70F+ dewpoints have flooded across the state today with temperatures in the mid to upper 80Fs. Huge amounts of fuel for storms. All supercells that develop will be very HP.

[Anonymous.]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0706
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0231 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST KS TO EAST TX PANHANDLE/WEST OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 241931Z - 242130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
DRYLINE AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON TO
EARLY EVENING. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW TORNADIC STORMS...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE WINDS ARE LIKELY.

DISCUSSION...19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A CYCLONE NEAR HAMILTON
COUNTY KS WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH THROUGH THE CENTRAL TX
PANHANDLE...A RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHWEST KS INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL KS AND ANOTHER CONFLUENT BOUNDARY THROUGH NORTHWEST
OK. THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR AIR MASS IS STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE
OF 2500-3500 J/KG AMID UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
HIGH-BASED CU HAS COMMENCED BEHIND THE DRYLINE IN THE TX PANHANDLE
AND STRENGTHENING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY TIED TO THE
LEFT-EXIT REGION OF AN APPROACHING SUBTROPICAL UPPER JET SHOULD
RESULT IN STORM INITIATION BY 21Z. FARTHER NORTH....CLUMPING CU NEAR
THE CYCLONE SHOULD INITIATE INTO STORMS IN A SIMILAR TIME FRAME.

VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 9 DEG C/KM FROM 700-500 MB AS
SAMPLED BY 19Z AMA RAOB WILL BE QUITE CONDUCIVE TO INTENSE UPDRAFT
ACCELERATION ONCE STORMS INITIATE. AS SUCH...VERY LARGE HAIL SHOULD
BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS
EVENING...TORNADO/WIND POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY INCREASE TOWARDS 00Z.

..GRAMS/HART.. 05/24/2016