General Weather Discussion - Feb 2016

[Anonymous.]

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[Anonymous.]

Upcoming early Feb storm is now forecast tracking the furthest south it has been (GFS model). Heavy snow cutoff (12"+) right at the OK/KS border.

Approaching NAM window this weekend so we will have a better idea, but early indications is NAM is forecasting further south than the GFS.


As of now, for the main body of OK - watch the forecast, it is changing every single run, and each one [so far] inches the track further towards bread and milk.

Easy takeaway, next week temperatures will likely be miserable.

[bradh]

woohoo

[ou48A]

Upcoming early Feb storm is now forecast tracking the furthest south it has been (GFS model). Heavy snow cutoff (12"+) right at the OK/KS border.

Approaching NAM window this weekend so we will have a better idea, but early indications is NAM is forecasting further south than the GFS.


As of now, for the main body of OK - watch the forecast, it is changing every single run, and each one [so far] inches the track further towards bread and milk.

Easy takeaway, next week temperatures will likely be miserable.

Are you talking about a system around the 12th of February or something much sooner?

[Bellaboo]

Are you talking about a system around the 12th of February or something much sooner?

He's been talking about Feb 1 - 2 system.

[ou48A]

He's been talking about Feb 1 - 2 system.

Thanks…… Apparently there is also the possibility of a significant system on about the 12th?

[Anonymous.]

Yea I have been speaking of the February 1-3 system.

Just an update this afternoon, last two GFS runs have bounced track further north towards original path.

As far as future goes, there is signs of a storm around the 8th, 12th, and 16th. But like all winter storms, you must tackle them one at a time due to the volatility in model change with each passing system.

[Mississippi Blues]

I know these are hard to predict and I apologize for being "that person" to ask questions that have no exact answer, but is there any indication on the impact the possible Feb. 8 storm will have? I am flying to PDX on the 10th and I'm just curious if this looks to be something that could affect my flight two days after it potentially hits.

I'm reluctant to ask this far in advance because I personally get frustrated when others ask open-ended questions that are really hard to answer due to a lack of knowledge or indication of future scenarios, but I would like to at least have some sort of idea of what could possibly be expected if anything does develop. I know that anything stated at this point in time is subject to change completely -- maybe before I even read the responding post -- so I won't be on here everyday asking for an update, but I'll be following it and any other systems closely until my plane takes off from Las Vegas (connecting city).

Thanks in advance, even if there just honestly aren't any real indications of what could possibly happen other than the models are showing the potential of a storm. The ridiculously minimal knowledge/experience I have of tracking storm systems confirms just how much of a waiting game it is, so I fully understand (and sympathize) if there's nothing worth mentioning at this point, as it will likely change half a billion times before the 8th arrives.

[Achilleslastand]

Looks like this storm is going to be a dud as well at least snow wise, temps this week look to still be in the above average range. Will winter ever arrive, and stay and will we get any significant snowfall this year. Doesn't look like it.

[Easy180]

Looks like this storm is going to be a dud as well at least snow wise, temps this week look to still be in the above average range. Will winter ever arrive, and stay and will we get any significant snowfall this year. Doesn't look like it.

From the extended forecasts I've seen its snooze worthy weather through at least the first half of the month.

[Bill Robertson]

Please allow me to say that snooze worthy winter weather means exactly that for me. I get to snooze instead of doing 20 hour days (on salary BTW so I don't get paid for it). I love it!!!!!!! Go warm!!!!!!

[Anonymous.]

Storm jumped track very far north over the last 24 hours. Still expecting colder temperatures Wed - Fri.

[Pete]

Hey! Actual rain!

Been a while.

[Bill Robertson]

Hey! Actual rain!

Been a while.

Looking at our one car that sits outside I'm not sure if it was rain or falling mud. LOL. It was wet though and that's what matters.

From the last GFS runs it also looks like the last wet stuff we'll see for quite a while.

Also high temps from about 40 to in the 50s though the 12th. Not bad for February.

[Anonymous.]

This system was extremely erratic. A whole week of tracking through central Kansas, suddenly track shifts south. Only to shift north of the original central track by 60-80 miles. Ended up being a Nebraska and northern Iowa blizzard.

Well this means temperatures not as cold as predicted earlier as the storm did not dig very far south.

Like Soonertail mentioned above, high pressure ridge will dominate the western US, which is a quiet pattern for most of the nation, save for clipper systems in the northeast.

[Anonymous.]

February 14-16 is the next range to watch.

[LakeEffect]

February 14-16 is the next range to watch.

Tease. The weather models keep leading this snow lover on.

[Pete]

I guess that's it for winter?

Forecast looks like 50' and 60's for the next 10 days and we will be fast approaching March.

[Bill Robertson]

I guess that's it for winter?

Forecast looks like 50' and 60's for the next 10 days and we will be fast approaching March.

It's looking like it. And GFS has zero total precip between now and the 16th for OKC.

[Jim Kyle]

I guess that's it for winter?

Forecast looks like 50' and 60's for the next 10 days and we will be fast approaching March.

Worst blizzard I ever saw in Oklahoma happened in May. Closed Hiway 66 for several days back in the late 30s!

[Bunty]

Worst blizzard I ever saw in Oklahoma happened in May. Closed Hiway 66 for several days back in the late 30s!

Must have been a pretty bad year for crop growing, like for cotton. Maybe a lot of people who didn't like to pick cotton got spared from it that year.

[Pete]

The El Nino that was supposed to soak California and make us wetter than normal has still not materialized even though they said around the first of the year it should still happen in the first quarter of this year.

Thus far, those predictions have been way, way off.

[bchris02]

I guess that's it for winter?

Forecast looks like 50' and 60's for the next 10 days and we will be fast approaching March.

Damon Lane seems to believe this.

Hopefully this doesn't lead to an active tornado season. If history is any indicator, it could go either way. 2013 was one of the worst years and that year had a very late spring, with arctic blasts all the way through April, ice in the metro in April and snow in early May for northwest Oklahoma. Tornado season was short that year but it hit with a vengeance. 2011, another very active year, saw a similar spring. It really all depends on where the jet stream is positioned in May, which is when conditions are ideal for the strongest tornadoes.

Anonymous or anybody who knows weather more than I do, could an early spring lead to the trough in May being farther north, resulting in fewer tornadoes for central OK?

[Anonymous.]

Honestly it is too early to say. But if you have an earlier Spring, the only change is really just an earlier severe storm season, and possibly extended. It is literally impossible to call if they would be more prone to being tornadic or not, the ingredients for rotating storms can come together hours before an event, calling it months ahead of time would simply be guesswork.

And I wouldn't hang up the winter coat just yet, there is indications of some interesting storms coming up in the next few weeks.

The ridge of high pressure out west has been dominant since Christmas and there are signs of it breaking down heading into late Feb.

[ou48A]

Many of Oklahoma’s most historic blizzards have occurred in the month of March.

Unless you have lived though one of the higher end blizzards like you find in far NW OK or on the high plains you may not understand how devastating and deadly they can be in these areas…. The high end blizzards in these areas are as serious as anywhere on the plant.

Believing the winter is over for Oklahoma during this time of year can be a serious mistake.