Star Wars the Force Awakens trailer #2

[okatty]

Heard the new Avengers movie is expected to break the opening weekend record this weekend and that should stand until December when Star Wars returns and that will crush it.

[Ginkasa]

Heard the new Avengers movie is expected to break the opening weekend record this weekend and that should stand until December when Star Wars returns and that will crush it.

It is unlikely that Star Wars will break any opening weekend records (which isn't to say anything about overall gross) due to its release date and other factors. I made a post on another website explaining how these things work, so I'll just copy it here:

The only people here who know what they're talking about are the ones saying we can't know yet. Even if we were to attempt to guess, there are a lot of factors at play other than "I'm super excited for this movie, so it will obviously make all the money."

As another has noted, TFA is coming out not in the summer, but in the Christmas season. The overall gross is much less focused on weekends during the holidays than they are in the summer. If you look at the top opening weekends you'll notice that you have to go all the way down to #52 before you find a movie that came out in December. Consider also that the highest grossing movie ever (domestic and worldwide, unadjusted) came out in December and it only comes in at #62 for top weekends.

The top opening weekend for Star Wars is $108 million for RotS. Adjusted in today's dollars, this would only come up to $140 million. The highest opening weekend in December is only $84 million (for The Hobbit). Even adjusted, the highest opening weekend in December is only $99 million for The Return of the King.

I would predict that The Force Awakens will gross somewhere between $84 million and $140 million for the weekend. I certainly expect it will break the December opening weekend record, but if it wanted to touch the Avengers than it needs to release in the summer or November.

It could surprise, of course, but that's why its called a surprise. Note that this is not talking about overall gross. Just the opening weekend.

[okatty]

It is unlikely that Star Wars will break any opening weekend records (which isn't to say anything about overall gross) due to its release date and other factors. I made a post on another website explaining how these things work, so I'll just copy it here:

Interesting. Avengers almost $28 mill last night. Sounds like it will hit mid low to mid 200's.

[traxx]

Was there ever any reason given as to why TFA is not being released with a traditional May opening that the other Star Wars movies had?

[Throckmorton]

I don't know if anyone ever gave a reason but it probably had something to do with Disney not wanting to step on their own toes with the Avengers sequel.

For what it's worth, Episode VIII is set for release in May 2017.

[Urbanized]

I roll my eyes when "record opening weekend", etc is promoted by the industry, because such discussions lack context and are designed to get the public excited by movies in the theater NOW. The industry has no incentive to compare to anything other than box-office DOLLARS, because thanks to inflation today's movies will always compare favorably to yesterday's.

One way to look at a film's performance vs history is to view an inflation-adjusted listing, which comes close to indicating how the butts-in-seats (the REAL indication of how a movie was embraced by the public) compares.

Here's one: All Time Box Office Adjusted for Ticket Price Inflation

It's fascinating to look at. You might be shocked at where certain films rank, and how far down the list recent "successes" fall.

[Just the facts]

IOne way to look at a film's performance vs history is to view an inflation-adjusted listing, which comes close to indicating how the butts-in-seats (the REAL indication of how a movie was embraced by the public) compares.

I would like to see them adjust for population as well. The US population in 1939 was 130.9 million (about 1/3 what it is today). That would take Gone With The Wind to about $4.5 billion inflation and population adjusted.

[okatty]

Or maybe look at just the attendance numbers

Movies: Top 232 by U.S. Theatre Attendance (All-Time) at MROB

[Ginkasa]

Since we're discussing overall grosses, I want to throw out that taking a movie 40-70 years old and comparing it to a movie from now isn't exactly an apples to apples comparison. Depending on the era, movies will have played for drastically longer periods of time than now - months or even years compared to weeks. There were overall less movies released and, with only single auditoriums, audiences didn't have much or any of a choice in what movie they watched if they wanted to see a show. And, of course, if they didn't see it in theatres they didn't get to see it.

With more product with smaller release windows along with home viewing options, of course an individual movie from now is going to compare poorly to an individual movie from 30-70 years ago. That doesn't mean today's "successes" aren't actually successes.

And this says nothing regarding weekend grosses, which is more of a modern concept.

[Urbanized]

Yeah, wasn't really intending to diminish successes of modern movies; only to point out that grosses are perhaps the most ridiculous of all methods of measuring a film's performance vs history.

Those links actually VALIDATE the success of recent(-ish) movies such as Titanic, Avatar, The Dark Knight and Marvel's The Avengers, provided you're not trying to make the case that one of them is OMG THE HIGHEST GROSSING MOVIE OF ALL TIME OMG OMG!!!

[Ginkasa]

I didn't think you were, but I see a lot of people take adjusted grosses and try to make some point about the "death of movie theatres" or some non-sense. With the topic coming up, I just wanted to provide all the context for anyone looking at it.

[Throckmorton]

[Mel]

Cool cover pic. Photos by Annie Liebowitz! Almost makes me want to buy that mag. Almost.....

[Urbanized]

Dang, Chewie hasn't aged a day...

[bchris02]

Dang, Chewie hasn't aged a day...

I think I remember reading Wookies typically live around 400 years.

[Urbanized]

Yeah, he's only about 230 in that photo. Of course, he is supposed have died at about 225 on Sernpidal only 25 years after the Battle of Yavin, so somebody's got some splainin' to do...

[Mel]

Lucy!!!!

[MsProudSooner]

The Tulsa Symphony had a concert last weekend of all John Williams music. The entire second half of the concert was Star Wars music, with the Flying Theme from ET as the encore. I'm really looking forward to this movie.

[FighttheGoodFight]

Mr. Plinkett review of the trailer ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yBEdgPFoBjY )

He is famous for his funny Star Wars reviews. First time I saw them I have never laughed so hard. ( Red Letter Media Star Wars Reviews : )

Warning these are NSFW