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Thread: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

  1. #101

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    https://twitter.com/ounwcm

    Rick Smith @ounwcm • 11m 11 minutes ago
    1240pm - severe storms most likely to affect OKC metro area after 8pm. #okwx

  2. #102

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Speaking of north central Oklahoma.
    Blackwell is one of the most tornado aware small towns in Oklahoma.
    For many years every school has had a large underground storm shelter….
    They have over lapping storm siren coverage. They have had a good network of storm spotters and a dedicated channel for local cable coverage?
    The vast majority of people have a basement or access to a shelter.

  3. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Current showers/storms will move through without much fanfare. Western OK is starting to bake again and some CU is starting to go up. Impacts to the metro area will depend which storms get their act together and can be sustained.

  4. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    First of the day...


  5. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015



    CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

    VALID 081921Z - 082115Z

    PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

    SUMMARY...NRN END OF ELEVATED TSTM BAND HAS INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
    OK/KS BORDER AND WILL POSE A NEAR-TERM RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
    STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
    QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE TORNADO
    RISK INCREASING ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.

    DISCUSSION...LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT HAS PRODUCED
    SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL BUT ABUNDANT CLOUD
    COVERAGE HAS SLOWED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM CNTRL OK SWD.
    NRN PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
    KS/OK BORDER AREA AND WILL PROGRESS NEWD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
    HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THOUGH MODIFIED 18Z TOP RAOB
    SUGGESTS MLCIN REMAINS ROBUST...THE PRESENCE OF THIS ELEVATED
    CLUSTER AMIDST A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
    COULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH LATE
    AFTERNOON.

    ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM UPSTREAM OVER NW OK WITHIN THE
    NARROW CORRIDOR OF INTENSE HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE AS HIGH-BASED
    CONVECTION OVER THE TX PANHANDLE OVERSPREADS IT LATER. LARGE HAIL
    /SOME SIGNIFICANT/ WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LLJ
    STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES /A FEW STRONG/
    WILL INCREASE AS WELL.


    ..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/08/2015

  6. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Recent image of the visible satellite with the dryline drawn on. Mesonet images are for dewpoints and also solar radiation - where the sun is out. Currently out in most area ahead of the dryline all the way through SW OK - which there is still a lot of cloud cover but well ahead of the dryline some.


  7. #107

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    This cloud deck is holding temperatures pretty well.

    I am almost ready to go out on a limb and say garden variety storms for SW to C OK, and keep most serious business activity north. The only thing that leaves caution is the fact the atmosphere is very unstable over the entire area which could make some storms pack a decent punch if held together long enough.

  8. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015



    The national weather service has issued severe thunderstorm watch
    35 in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening for the following areas

    in arkansas this watch includes 2 counties

    in northwest arkansas

    benton carroll

    in oklahoma this watch includes 12 counties

    in northeast oklahoma

    craig creek delaware
    mayes nowata osage
    ottawa pawnee rogers
    tulsa wagoner washington

    this includes the cities of...bartlesville...bentonville...
    Berryville...bristow...claremore...eureka springs...jay...miami...
    Nowata...pawhuska...pawnee...pryor...rogers...tuls a...
    Vinita and wagoner.

  9. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Dryline is getting ready to go. Echoes started to get picked up on radar and tower CU on satellite.

    Real time updates will be in chat: Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage

  10. #110

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Humph.. I ran the bike home at lunch and swapped out to the truck. Looks like I could have waited.

  11. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015


  12. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    The national weather service has issued tornado watch 36 in
    effect until midnight cdt tonight for the following areas

    in oklahoma this watch includes 26 counties

    in central oklahoma

    canadian kingfisher lincoln
    logan oklahoma payne

    in northern oklahoma

    garfield grant kay
    noble

    in northwest oklahoma

    alfalfa blaine dewey
    ellis major woods
    woodward

    in southwest oklahoma

    caddo greer harmon
    jackson kiowa

    in western oklahoma

    beckham custer roger mills
    wa****a

    in texas this watch includes 1 county

    in northern texas

    hardeman

  13. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015


  14. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Tornadoes
    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
    High (70%)
    Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
    Mod (40%)
    Wind
    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
    High (80%)
    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
    Mod (40%)
    Hail
    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
    High (90%)
    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
    Mod (50%)
    Combined Severe Hail/Wind
    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
    High (>95%)


  15. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Roger Mills County should be the first warned today...storm increasing and hail size getting bigger.

  16. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    OUN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Woods, Woodward [OK] till 5:00 PM CDT

    Roger Mills storm has weakened some.

  17. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    The national weather service in norman has issued a


    * severe thunderstorm warning for...
    Central woods county in northwestern oklahoma...
    Northeastern woodward county in northwestern oklahoma...


    * until 500 pm cdt


    * at 432 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast
    of alabaster caverns state park...moving northeast at 35 mph.


    Hazard...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.


    Source...trained spotters.

  18. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    OUN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Roger Mills [OK] till 5:30 PM CDT

  19. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    IEMBot OUN @iembot_oun

    OUN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Harper, Woods [OK] till 5:30 PM CDT

  20. #120

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by venture View Post
    Tornadoes
    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
    High (70%)
    Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
    Mod (40%)
    Wind
    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
    High (80%)
    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
    Mod (40%)
    Hail
    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
    High (90%)
    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
    Mod (50%)
    Combined Severe Hail/Wind
    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
    High (>95%)

    Venture,

    Are these percentages for Oklahoma City? The entire watch area? These seem awfully high compared to some of the other forecasts for the metro.

  21. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by zookeeper View Post
    Venture,

    Are these percentages for Oklahoma City? The entire watch area? These seem awfully high compared to some of the other forecasts for the metro.
    Entire watch box.

  22. #122

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by venture View Post
    Entire watch box.
    Thanks!

  23. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Intense supercell. Strong inflow...must be watched!


  24. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Storm is TOR warned...funnel spotted.

  25. #125

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - April 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by venture View Post
    Sorry for off topic, but you guys need widescreens! For Pete's sake, you could have about 20x the desktop space with a few 2550x1600 (1600p) displays!

    Once again - thank you for the coverage you provide here Venture. I always follow the threads (may not understand all of the terminology) and my friends now think I am a weather guru of some sort!

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