General Weather Discussion - April 2015

[ou48A]

https://twitter.com/ounwcm

Rick Smith @ounwcm • 11m 11 minutes ago
1240pm - severe storms most likely to affect OKC metro area after 8pm. #okwx

[ou48A]

Speaking of north central Oklahoma.
Blackwell is one of the most tornado aware small towns in Oklahoma.
For many years every school has had a large underground storm shelter….
They have over lapping storm siren coverage. They have had a good network of storm spotters and a dedicated channel for local cable coverage?
The vast majority of people have a basement or access to a shelter.

[venture]

Current showers/storms will move through without much fanfare. Western OK is starting to bake again and some CU is starting to go up. Impacts to the metro area will depend which storms get their act together and can be sustained.

[venture]

First of the day...

[venture]

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 081921Z - 082115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...NRN END OF ELEVATED TSTM BAND HAS INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
OK/KS BORDER AND WILL POSE A NEAR-TERM RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRYLINE BY EARLY EVENING WITH THE TORNADO
RISK INCREASING ESPECIALLY AFTER 00Z.

DISCUSSION...LEAD MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE THAT HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED ELEVATED TSTMS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL BUT ABUNDANT CLOUD
COVERAGE HAS SLOWED SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION FROM CNTRL OK SWD.
NRN PORTION OF THIS CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED ALONG THE
KS/OK BORDER AREA AND WILL PROGRESS NEWD WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES
HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THOUGH MODIFIED 18Z TOP RAOB
SUGGESTS MLCIN REMAINS ROBUST...THE PRESENCE OF THIS ELEVATED
CLUSTER AMIDST A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COULD SUPPORT A SWATH OF LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON.

ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL PROBABLY FORM UPSTREAM OVER NW OK WITHIN THE
NARROW CORRIDOR OF INTENSE HEATING NEAR THE DRYLINE AS HIGH-BASED
CONVECTION OVER THE TX PANHANDLE OVERSPREADS IT LATER. LARGE HAIL
/SOME SIGNIFICANT/ WOULD BE THE PRIMARY INITIAL HAZARD. AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...THE RISK FOR TORNADOES /A FEW STRONG/
WILL INCREASE AS WELL.

..GRAMS/CORFIDI.. 04/08/2015

[venture]

Recent image of the visible satellite with the dryline drawn on. Mesonet images are for dewpoints and also solar radiation - where the sun is out. Currently out in most area ahead of the dryline all the way through SW OK - which there is still a lot of cloud cover but well ahead of the dryline some.

[Anonymous.]

This cloud deck is holding temperatures pretty well.

I am almost ready to go out on a limb and say garden variety storms for SW to C OK, and keep most serious business activity north. The only thing that leaves caution is the fact the atmosphere is very unstable over the entire area which could make some storms pack a decent punch if held together long enough.

[venture]

The national weather service has issued severe thunderstorm watch
35 in effect until 7 pm cdt this evening for the following areas

in arkansas this watch includes 2 counties

in northwest arkansas

benton carroll

in oklahoma this watch includes 12 counties

in northeast oklahoma

craig creek delaware
mayes nowata osage
ottawa pawnee rogers
tulsa wagoner washington

this includes the cities of...bartlesville...bentonville...
Berryville...bristow...claremore...eureka springs...jay...miami...
Nowata...pawhuska...pawnee...pryor...rogers...tuls a...
Vinita and wagoner.

[venture]

Dryline is getting ready to go. Echoes started to get picked up on radar and tower CU on satellite.

Real time updates will be in chat: Weather Spotlight - Live Chat Room for Weather Event Coverage

[jerrywall]

Humph.. I ran the bike home at lunch and swapped out to the truck. Looks like I could have waited.

[venture]

[venture]

The national weather service has issued tornado watch 36 in
effect until midnight cdt tonight for the following areas

in oklahoma this watch includes 26 counties

in central oklahoma

canadian kingfisher lincoln
logan oklahoma payne

in northern oklahoma

garfield grant kay
noble

in northwest oklahoma

alfalfa blaine dewey
ellis major woods
woodward

in southwest oklahoma

caddo greer harmon
jackson kiowa

in western oklahoma

beckham custer roger mills
wa****a

in texas this watch includes 1 county

in northern texas

hardeman

[venture]

[venture]

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Mod (40%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (40%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (50%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

[venture]

Roger Mills County should be the first warned today...storm increasing and hail size getting bigger.

[venture]

OUN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Woods, Woodward [OK] till 5:00 PM CDT

Roger Mills storm has weakened some.

[venture]

The national weather service in norman has issued a


* severe thunderstorm warning for...
Central woods county in northwestern oklahoma...
Northeastern woodward county in northwestern oklahoma...


* until 500 pm cdt


* at 432 pm cdt...a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast
of alabaster caverns state park...moving northeast at 35 mph.


Hazard...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail.


Source...trained spotters.

[venture]

OUN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Custer, Dewey, Ellis, Roger Mills [OK] till 5:30 PM CDT

[venture]

IEMBot OUN @iembot_oun

OUN issues Severe Thunderstorm Warning for Harper, Woods [OK] till 5:30 PM CDT

[zookeeper]

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Mod (40%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (40%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	High (90%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (50%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

Venture,

Are these percentages for Oklahoma City? The entire watch area? These seem awfully high compared to some of the other forecasts for the metro.

[venture]

Venture,

Are these percentages for Oklahoma City? The entire watch area? These seem awfully high compared to some of the other forecasts for the metro.

Entire watch box.

[zookeeper]

Entire watch box.

Thanks!

[venture]

Intense supercell. Strong inflow...must be watched!

[venture]

Storm is TOR warned...funnel spotted.

[pw405]

Sorry for off topic, but you guys need widescreens! For Pete's sake, you could have about 20x the desktop space with a few 2550x1600 (1600p) displays!

Once again - thank you for the coverage you provide here Venture. I always follow the threads (may not understand all of the terminology) and my friends now think I am a weather guru of some sort!