Wheeler District

[Teo9969]

But it doesn't prove intent to deceive, just that they are a private business with investors and other stakeholders who expect, in the end, to reap the right level of profits for their risk. Though everyone on here seems to think otherwise, this is far from a slam dunk for them.

This is the scary part in general. What is the right level of profits? Longevity and Sustainability are expensive in the short-run. If they want to build a quality urban neighborhood, they're not making their money back in 10 years. If they have to play the short-term game (by their choice or their stakeholders), this has a 0% chance to reach its potential. The reason I think so many of us are hopeful is that Humphreys has expressed a sense of patience and understanding that it may not happen over night.

[Rover]

This is the scary part in general. What is the right level of profits? Longevity and Sustainability are expensive in the short-run. If they want to build a quality urban neighborhood, they're not making their money back in 10 years. If they have to play the short-term game (by their choice or their stakeholders), this has a 0% chance to reach its potential. The reason I think so many of us are hopeful is that Humphreys has expressed a sense of patience and understanding that it may not happen over night.

Money is a commodity and the cost and availability of it influenced greatly by perception of risk. When you ask "what is the right level of profits", it is generally commensurate with that risk and what other investments are out there.

This isn't a quick flip project so obviously their play is for long term. They are incentivized to make it go right so that the last pieces developed and sold bring the highest level return possible to pay for the deficits they will face up front with all the infrastructure and other costs. If they don't build it according to demand then it isn't just short term they fail, they fail in the long run too.

I think that sometimes it is hard to understand the levels of risk developers face....both short and long term. There are lots of moving parts.

[hoya]

If you need 3 bedrooms fine, just expect those bedrooms to be 8' x 10', not 12' x 14' but cost the same price.

I think a lot of people are talking past one another on this thread. Surprise surprise, people on the internet are failing to express their ideas clearly to each other.

The Humphreys probably have an idea as to what income range they are going to target. If the goal, as was mentioned earlier in the thread (maybe by Pete?), is to supply housing to those who have been priced out of the downtown market, then the options are to either 1) offer smaller units than are available downtown, or 2) charge cheaper rates per square foot. Now that might not actually be their goal. For all I know, they plan on pushing the envelope of housing costs and everything there will be half a million or more. Who knows.

Regardless of how much money I have (or don't have), I wouldn't pay downtown rates to live in a not-yet downtown area. The Wheeler District is a big empty field right now, that happens to be next to a poor neighborhood and a really really bad public housing project. If they are going to charge the same price as the Brownstones, then if I get the money I will just live in the Brownstones. Now some people on this thread have indicated that if you pay less than $200 per square foot for new construction, then your house will blow down as soon as the Big Bad Wolf comes by and sneezes at it. They think you can't get anything remotely decent unless you pay more than twice the price of anything that is built in this market. I disagree with those people.

I think the price point that has been set downtown with places like the Brownstones and the Hill is deliberate. Those are high profit margin properties and they are targeting a relatively small group of homebuyers. I don't see any reason why a rowhouse would need to be any more costly to build than a regular home. The entire purpose of rowhouses was to save money on the land you have to purchase and on the materials used because you are sharing walls with your neighbors. They should be cheaper to build than a normal house. Now in the Wheeler District you are going to be paying a premium on land because it is a planned neighborhood and there will be a lot of people who believe that the land values there are going to go sky high once it is complete.

If the Humphreys are planning on a small rowhouse costing $350,000, then that place may take quite a while to fill up. But if you can get a 3 bedroom townhouse for $180,000 (even if the rooms are small) then that place will sell like crazy. My understanding of what the Wheeler District was supposed to be is more of the latter than the former.

[Teo9969]

Money is a commodity and the cost and availability of it influenced greatly by perception of risk. When you ask "what is the right level of profits", it is generally commensurate with that risk and what other investments are out there.

This isn't a quick flip project so obviously their play is for long term. They are incentivized to make it go right so that the last pieces developed and sold bring the highest level return possible to pay for the deficits they will face up front with all the infrastructure and other costs. If they don't build it according to demand then it isn't just short term they fail, they fail in the long run too.

I think that sometimes it is hard to understand the levels of risk developers face....both short and long term. There are lots of moving parts.

It seems to me that developing a community like this is a lot less about profit and a lot more about wealth protection. This is the problem with suburban-tract housing: it *is* a quick flip where developers come in, build an edition and sell all of the stock as quickly as possible for a profit. That kind of development doesn't require things to be built to last, or to cater to a sense of timelessness that can make a neighborhood last. When the housing editions start going south 20/30 years later, the developers have been gone for over half that time onto new build and flip projects.

I guess all that to say, if profit is the ultimate goal here, 1. I don't know why they would go this direction 2. I don't think they're going to see those profits for a very extensive period of time.

It seems to me they will be in the red for quite some time if this development is going to be successful. I hope they can find a way to make money in the short-run AND be successful…That would be ideal, but could come at the price of having an economically diverse neighborhood.

[AP]

But if you can get a 3 bedroom townhouse for $180,000 (even if the rooms are small) then that place will sell like crazy. My understanding of what the Wheeler District was supposed to be is more of the latter than the former.

Fingers crossed and hoping that's the case.

[krisb]

I recall Blair alluding to a concept of property ownership that excludes the land price. The land title would be held separately from the dwelling. That might keep things affordable. Does anyone know what I am referring to?

[Spartan]

Sounds to me like NSP, which IMO would be ideal. Income-restricts being 80-120% AMI.

[CuatrodeMayo]

IIRC, the homes at Carlton Landing run about $160-$170 per SF.

[mkjeeves]

IIRC, the homes at Carlton Landing run about $160-$170 per SF.

$200 plus cost of the lot was the average when I looked at it last fall.

Available: http://www.homefinder.com/broker/Car...-Llc-4961277d/

[Teo9969]

Everything on the CL website is $210+ per sf.

But I don't understand why we're comping CL with WD? I imagine costs to build out there would be quite a bit higher than in OKC.

[mkjeeves]

Everything on the CL website is $210+ per sf.

But I don't understand why we're comping CL with WD? I imagine costs to build out there would be quite a bit higher than in OKC.

New Urbanist development by the same group. It may or may not have anything in common otherwise. It's by the lake but isn't all that far from civilization though. McAlester is maybe 20 minutes away. There are plenty of builders in the area and sometimes more rural labor is less expensive than metro. Sometimes not.

[Teo9969]

New Urbanist development by the same group. It may or may not have anything in common otherwise. It's by the lake but isn't all that far from civilization though. McAlester is maybe 20 minutes away. There are plenty of builders in the area and sometimes more rural labor is less expensive than metro. Sometimes not.

Right but getting sewer, water, electrical up there would surely not be an inexpensive thing for a development of that magnitude, and site preparation would probably be a bit more expensive as well.

There are certainly cost advantages in both cases. But I think if KrisB is correct and the Humphreys' will maintain ownership of all the Wheeler land, then the final costs of your average house should be under the $200/sf range. I think there are a lot of people who would gladly pay $185k for ~1100 square feet. If I had to guess, initial homes may be a bit more expensive, because they will likely be closer to the central area of the district and likely more town home style (which seems to me predisposed to design inefficiency).

[mkjeeves]

Right but getting sewer, water, electrical up there would surely not be an inexpensive thing for a development of that magnitude, and site preparation would probably be a bit more expensive as well.

There are certainly cost advantages in both cases. But I think if KrisB is correct and the Humphreys' will maintain ownership of all the Wheeler land, then the final costs of your average house should be under the $200/sf range. I think there are a lot of people who would gladly pay $185k for ~1100 square feet. If I had to guess, initial homes may be a bit more expensive, because they will likely be closer to the central area of the district and likely more town home style (which seems to me predisposed to design inefficiency).

What do you think the yearly cost is going to be to rent the land from the Humphreys, have them cover the taxes on the property they own and you are using and so on?

Attractive to package it that way, maybe. But it's not apples and apples to owning property outright or renting outright.

[Teo9969]

I don't know how it will work, because I don't know how taxes work on mixed-use property, and I would hope that the goal is for a majority of the properties to be mixed use.

[Teo9969]

I imagine there will be considerable "HOA" fees for buildings, but I also imagine a lot of that money will funnel into improving the district for a very long time.

[Canoe]

These homes have an old style, but are being built in Edmond. I would use these houses to get an idea of cost for a single family house in Wheeler.

New Homes Oklahoma City, Homes In Edmond,Home Builder McCaleb Homes

[CuatrodeMayo]

$200 plus cost of the lot was the average when I looked at it last fall.

Available: Carlton Landing Realty, Llc - Eufaula, OK Homes For Sale | HomeFinder.com

Fair enough. That was a few years ago too.

[krisb]

CL is more of a resort/retirement community. Wheeler will be way more dense and does not have quite the same waterfront property as CL. The urban lifestyle and amenities will need to be in place before they can start charging anywhere near $200 per square foot. Otherwise, why not just live downtown or in a suburban walkable community, as we have all been saying?

[Spartan]

Wheeler is large enough that it can accommodate both an exclusive community and more affordable units. In today's economy, it's hard for any real estate to be successful without being a "community of choice."

[CuatrodeMayo]

Just an FYI: Master Plan | Carlton Landing

[borchard]

These homes have an old style, but are being built in Edmond. I would use these houses to get an idea of cost for a single family house in Wheeler.

New Homes Oklahoma City, Homes In Edmond,Home Builder McCaleb Homes

I like the look of those. I love seeing something different being built. Anything but the Dallas-style houses that have infested almost every neighborhood in the metro for the last 30yrs

[Teo9969]

These homes have an old style, but are being built in Edmond. I would use these houses to get an idea of cost for a single family house in Wheeler.

New Homes Oklahoma City, Homes In Edmond,Home Builder McCaleb Homes

$160/sf or less is not bad, but I still think flats are the way to go, especially in the central part of the district which I assume is where things will start. Ideally you could build 4 stories with the first level retail/in-back-parking. and everything else residential, you can make the flats condos and do shared roof-top terraces that way. It should help keep the costs below $200/sf and make more efficient use of space.

Something else that I think the district could do is some median parking on any wider streets:

[Montreal]

Spoke with someone on the project recently. A dual-immersion, non-private elementary school is still the desired plan. I may be making too much of a jump, but it sounded like they want the school asap, which means it would serve primarily non-Wheeler residents for the medium term.

[Teo9969]

Yeah, if they do the dual immersion, that could completely change the face of that area…I'd want my kid in that school no ifs ands or buts.

[dankrutka]

Yeah, if they do the dual immersion, that could completely change the face of that area…I'd want my kid in that school no ifs ands or buts.

Yep. Dual immersion schools are incredible. If I had kids that would be a requirement for me.