General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

[ljbab728]

That's where defensive driving comes in and being aware of people around you. Granted most drivers don't have the capability to be that aware of their surroundings and before they know it they are plowing into someone who spun out.

I disagree with you but I'm not going to disrupt this thread with a debate about driving skills.

[Achilleslastand]

In a perfect world we would get a good amount of rain Saturday and then Sat night/Sun morn get some decent snowfall.

[Anonymous.]

Last 3 runs of GFS have each rushed the colder air in more quickly for maybe a burst of snow as the precip moves out. Will keep watching as it evolves tonight.

[Bobby821]

Last 3 runs of GFS have each rushed the colder air in more quickly for maybe a burst of snow as the precip moves out. Will keep watching as it evolves tonight.

any ideas on how big of a burst of snow we are talking about ?

[jn1780]

In a perfect world we would get a good amount of rain Saturday and then Sat night/Sun morn get some decent snowfall.

In a perfect world, it would rain or snow more than once a month.

[venture]

GFS has had snowfall for us this coming week on Wednesday Night/Thursday for a couple runs now. Not much, but something.

[Bunty]

All counties in Oklahoma got some rain with many locations getting at least .50. I got .76 in my rain gauge.

[Anonymous.]

Super boring pattern setting up for OK and most of the nation. The exception being northern Mississippi into Ohio valley and the Great Lakes region. They will continue to get shots of snow every few days.

Looks like us in OK will have one last shot a weak low to come through on Wednesday evening, but does not look very promising.

[venture]

Definitely looks like a slow month so far. Going to just use this thread for February as well (thread title change requested already).

[venture]

Winter Wx Advisory up for the NE OK counties under Tulsa's eye. Here slight chance for some sleet/freezing rain early this evening changing to snow before ending tonight.

[venture]

Fascinating donut hole right over Oklahoma when compared to neighboring areas.

[venture]

So far only thing really showing up is a potential good sized storm around the 20th/21st.

[OkieHornet]

Fascinating donut hole right over Oklahoma when compared to neighboring areas.

it's a great visual to see the clearly defined boundary that is the rockies when it comes to severe weather.

[venture]

GFS keeps hinting at a pattern shift by mid month going into the end of the month. If it plays out, should take the main storm track that has been well north recently down over us. This would definitely get us more active with storm systems coming through. Right now it does have a couple for the last 7 days of the month, with mixed precip types. Also could see severe weather start up in Texas with these systems as well.

Going into March we do see on average 3.9 tornadoes...so things will start getting more active - hopefully here soon...not so much for the severe stuff but for the moisture.

Last year I spoke early about how it was shaping up to be like 1988 tornado wise and that's pretty much exactly what happened. The following years though were also quite in 89 and 90...with 17 and 20 tornadoes respectfully. Then in 91 it came in with 73 and things were back to normal or above normal most years until 99 which most of us remember. However, when comparing I also have to take into consideration the drought in 2001-02 and its impact on the storm season in 2002. The drought was significant from roughly I-35 and west - similar to this most recent one. We had a very low tornado count of only 18 in 2002. However, 2003 came around and we saw how that worked out - 78 total including the F4 that went through S OKC, Moore, Midwest City, and Choctaw.

Point to take away there, it is always hard to draw parallels. Could this be like the late 80s where we will continue to have a very down storm season and continued drought, or will we snap back like we did in 2003. Something for us to think about and watch for while it pretty quiet right now.

[Anonymous.]

GFS lately has been all over the place for pattern shift beginning next week.

Right now, best guess is a storm system somewhere around late this weekend into middle of next week.

[venture]

00Z GFS run has a pattern change for the Southern Plains starting up this weekend. Hopefully this means more active weather (read: MOISTURE) to counter drought conditions. Image attached are the various storm systems projected to come through. Keep in mind, most of these systems have only 2-3 instances of run to run consistency, so these are not set in stone at all.


Storm system for the end of this weekend into early next week has a chance to bring a good variety of weather. Moderate rain, snow, and also the chance for a few storms over SW OK. Severe threat looks extremely low at this time, but the intensity of the storm system might allow for a few hail stones to come with the strongest cells.


The following weekend on the 22nd has another storm system coming through, but right now it appears to be mostly E OK.


Then on Monday the 23rd chance for some snow over the main body of OK. Followed by more winter precip chances on Wednesday the 25th.

[s00nr1]

Bread and milk watch in effect for Mon-Wed timeframe.

[venture]

Bread and milk watch in effect for Mon-Wed timeframe.

I agree...details later tonight.

[venture]

Timeline Review based on 00Z GFS and ECMWF...

Through 12AM Monday Morning
GFS - Precips moves in along/east of I-44. Light winter mix.
ECMWF - Winter mix or snow along/east of I-44.

6AM Monday
GFS - Winter mix continues over Central and Eastern OK. Light Rain over SW and SC OK.
ECMWF - Snow or winter mix all but far southern OK.

Noon Monday
GFS - Winter mix NE OK, light rain Central & Western OK. Moderate Rain SE OK.
ECMWF - Winter mix Central and East. Light rain south.

6PM Monday
GFS - Light Rain NE, Central, SW OK. Moderate rain/storms SE.Winter mix along KS border from NC to NW OK.
ECMWF - Light rain SE OK.

Midnight / 12AM Tuesday
GFS - Light rain SW, Moderate rain SC to SE. Winter mix near I-44. Snow NE, NC, and NW.
ECMWF - Light rain SE OK. Light snow NW OK.

6AM Tuesday
GFS - Snow all of OK except SE OK where it will be a winter mix or light rain.
ECMWF - Light snow SW to C to NE OK. Moderate snow NW. Winter mix SE OK.

12PM Tuesday
GFS - Snow Central and Eastern OK.
ECMWF - Light snow much of OK.

6PM Tuesday
GFS - Dry
ECMWF - Light snow SW, C, NE OK.

Midnight / 12AM Wednesday
GFS - Dry
ECMWF - Light snow C and E OK.

[venture]

06Z GFS bumped up the snowfall amounts...

[Anonymous.]

Newest GFS brings wave of freezing rain/sleet early Monday morning. Then bring the main snow into N TX for Monday night into Tuesday. Bypassing main body of OK.

Track is going to be tricky with this one.

[venture]

Yeah...GFS was good for about 3 runs and now dives way south. Apparently the Euro is doing the same thing. Eh, it's only Thursday. We'll see if this is the new trend or if it snaps back.

[Bobby821]

Yeah...GFS was good for about 3 runs and now dives way south. Apparently the Euro is doing the same thing. Eh, it's only Thursday. We'll see if this is the new trend or if it snaps back.

I say I snaps back wash after wash..

[silvergrove]

Ugh, right around when I plan on traveling as well. Would the precipitation on Monday be icy for north Texas? I also plan on driving to Nebraska on Tuesday, how are conditions up further north?

[Soonerman12]

GEM really dumps on east OK... we'll see if that pans out. I'm thinking GFS will snap back by 00z tomorrow.