Lumberyard

[NWOKCGuy]

Not to mention - how do you think Florida got into the trouble it is in? Developers over-saturated the market. What do you think would happen in OKC if 4 high rise condo developments went up at one time.

Hell, I remember reading problems Austin had when the Austonian first opened. People weren't used to that yet. Once they did, condos started going up left and right. When the first Clayco residential fills up quickly, OKC will have developers lining up.

[warreng88]

So tell me, what are the risk...? Lets run this mouse trap and see where it leads us. A Condo Developer has $$$ 100 M to spend in a property ....and is based in Tampa, Fl. Condo market is over saturated, the lending market is tight. The economy is increasing at only a snails pace of 1-2 %. Snowbirds from Northeast are still coming down, but with less to spend. Finding smaller less expensive properties to buy. ....So Florida is not a a low risk / high reward as it has been in the past. It is now a High Risk / Low Reward equation. ....so let's move this $$$ 100 M. to Dallas or Houston, The Tower Condo Market is active, and their are several new properties already filling up. Multiple projects ( towers are already ) to begin construction, and should make this market "Tight w/ an 85-90%" and your project would not open for 18 months. This would be a moderate exposure / with moderate reward....?

Now lets go back to my first statement..... High Demand / Low Inventory. ...this is what they look for when putting ( Millions at risk )...The is always risk in business, but the "research" is placing your product in the strongest position to beat the competition.

DocThunder's posts are starting to look eerily familiar:

OKC is far from any "overbuilding". We have space-a-plenty. If this developer is an ( Outside ) group, then his concern is purely ROI and 40 stories helps secure that. It becomes the place to be, thus values will remain steady for each unit. This complex brings its own "self-contained environment" of Large / High End / Mixed-use / Destination point and would thrive. On the Blvd, Highly Visible to all.


If the developer is local, then this project will most likely be scaled back or cut due to ( tight financing / short leash ) approach.

[adaniel]

Was starting to wonder the same thing myself.

No worries, if its the same person then they'll meet the same fate.

[NWOKCGuy]

I don't know. There are 5 or 6 posters that don't seem to understand basic economic principles.

[DocThunder]

Obviously you've never tried to get financing for a $100 million project, or tried to raise the capital required to GET the financing. Or even a $10 million. Investors/financial institutions don't want feel good theories, they want as much factual information as you can provide, as well as your history of being right with similar projects. Contrary to what many think, they just don't hand out money because someone says they think this is cool, or is a sure bet.

Risks include cost overruns which make the market pricing too high... or economic lapses and bad real estate markets (people who wanted to rent or buy can't sell their current housing for what they thought or at all, meaning they can't buy yours).... that when you finish, the economy is rotten (2008-2014 for example).... that your demand survey wasn't correct.... etc. , etc., etc.

I thought you were asking from the Developers point of view. That is what you said. You now want me to explain it to from Oklahoma Financial institutions point of view. Fine, find a financial institution that commonly practices in this type of business venture, thus not one in Oklahoma. ... and a also selecting a banker that doesn't get nervous when he sees an "M" on the note.

i was speaking of the Developers risk and the market itself....and again, High Demand / Low Inventory.

[NWOKCGuy]

How do you know there is high demand here? Could just as easily be low demand/low inventory. I don't think that's the case but no one will know until the first one goes up. After that the risk goes away.

[Urbanized]

I don't know. There are 5 or 6 posters that don't seem to understand basic economic principles.

^^^^^^
This.

[David]

Oh I bet it's the same person. Look at the writing style, it has the same creative use of parentheses, slashes, and quotes

[warreng88]

There is one way to figure this out:

DocThunder, do you think OKC could ever host the Olympics?
What are your thoughts on Braum's?
Have you ever heard of MagLev technology?
If you had money to build a tower in Norman, where would you build it and why?

[soondoc]

How do you know there is high demand here? Could just as easily be low demand/low inventory. I don't think that's the case but no one will know until the first one goes up. After that the risk goes away.

Thats a pretty fair question. I would say that since OKC basically has zero high rise residential currently, not including the older one DT, that it would be in demand. OKC is a much larger place than LR and several other cities that have these and we don't. In fact, rumors abound that people would love to live DT in something like this but nothing is available. Put up 1-2 towers and see how fast they fill up and go from there. I don't think 4 at once is wise, but a BT Tower would be ideal because it is part of DT and BT. Clayco is nice because it will be s part of DT and MBG and the future park.

I say the biggest question is will anyone ever build a high rise in this town with parking below? It amazes me how we seem to be the only people on the planet that think this can't be done. More accurately, we cheap out from doing it. 499 Sheridan has Devon money all over it and will be asking for TIF, yet can't seem to find a way to spend the little extra for underground parking. Same goes for Clayco and I think that is wrong. They want the assistance but then not want to spend a little extra to do this.

[NWOKCGuy]

Using the definition you all have settled on, Little Rock doesn't have high rise residential. The buildings that you are referencing for Little Rock are much smaller than what is being proposed in OKC. The picture above shows River Market (240 feet) and First Security Center in Little Rock which only has condos on floors 11-14 (190 feet). Little Rock's next tallest residential building is 300 Third Tower which is only 218 feet. Regency and the Classen both tower over anything LR has.

Again, I don't doubt there is a huge market for high rise residential in OKC but you have to let the market prove itself first. It would actually hurt OKC for there to be several going up at once.

[warreng88]

I would think a mixture of office and residential would be the best test of the high rise condo market in OKC. We know there is a market for spec, class A office space, so, if building a 20 story building, floor 1 would be lobby and amenities, 2-15 would be office and 16-20 would be condos. See how they presell and if the sales are bad, flip them to office and move on.

[Just the facts]

Let me just correct one thing about the Florida condo market.

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/05/01/re...anted=all&_r=0

Of the 22,000 condos created in downtown Miami during the boom years, only about 600 remain unsold

..

In the last two years, 25 new condo projects have been announced in the downtown area, although it is far from certain they will all be completed. Within sight of Brickell CityCentre alone, eight residential buildings are under construction, including three being developed by the Related Group, an affiliate of the Related Companies of New York.

...

Though Miami is not exactly known for its public transportation, ridership on both Metromover and Metrorail, an elevated train that connects suburbs north and south of Miami, has been steadily increasing — up 5.5 percent and 11.3 percent in February over the same period in the previous year.

The increased usage, in part, comes after an influx of young residents to downtown. The recent condo boom was driven primarily by cash-paying Latin American investors who either use the apartments occasionally or rent them out, often to young professionals working nearby, said Mr. Zalewski of Condo Vultures.

[bchris02]

I would think a mixture of office and residential would be the best test of the high rise condo market in OKC. We know there is a market for spec, class A office space, so, if building a 20 story building, floor 1 would be lobby and amenities, 2-15 would be office and 16-20 would be condos. See how they presell and if the sales are bad, flip them to office and move on.

This is a good idea.

I really think there is more of a market for high-rise residential here than developers are currently comfortable with. Once the market is tested and proven, projects will probably start being announced left and right like they were in many cities during the 2000s boom.

[hoya]

They've just got to prove the market first. Right now nobody really knows how well they'll sell. If they build one tower and it sells out in a certain amount of time (I don't know if a year or two is considered fast for something like that) then they'll build a few more. If those sell out quickly, then we'll get a flood of them.

[HOT ROD]

TIF could be useful here in aiding the developing High Rise market, but I think the city needs to be smart about it so that

1) TIF is seen as an INCENTIVE to build URBAN in urban locations and not an expectation for developer profitability
2) TIF needs to have some demands for the city, such as retail frontage on the first 1-3 levels (depending upon the project size/scope), parking under the structure and/or underground for projects of certain FAR, density awards (more TIF for more density), partnership for utility relocation and/or retrofit, amenities
3) TIF needs to be tied to a Master Plan for the city to create critical massing in the greater downtown core
4) TIF has timing requirements and accountability that must be met or TIF repaid with potential penalty
5) Certain TIFs can be treated as a LOAN. These would include luxury residential/hotel or class A office where sufficient demand exists (or will be created) yet a TIF is needed for a certain economic stimulus or guarantee for bank financing. (This would be KEY for projects such as Clayco, FNC, Bricktown Towers, and other 'spec' development that contains Luxury elements that will likely guarantee positive net return on investment for developers - by using TIF to partner with developers the city can share in those proceeds rather than just waiting on taxation)
6) TIF oversight is needed and there needs to be ethics brought into the equation (TIF board chairman could not be the Chairman of the Chamber, TIF board should have 'normal' citizens and not just the movers/shakers, so on)

Perhaps I should create another thread for this point and post this list again; however, I believe this is a very creative use of TIF but there needs to be rules established so that OKC gets the best bang for our buck and developers are incentivized to build according to an urban vision and held accountable for it. Other cities have similar requirements (looking at you Vancouver Canada - which btw doesn't need to have TIF to incentivize development but does have strict requirements on highrise development); we can tailor ours to economic return rather than Vancouver's use of it for height/density ratio.

[soondoc]

Oh I bet it's the same person. Look at the writing style, it has the same creative use of parentheses, slashes, and quotes

How can that be when everyone originally thought DocThunder was Soondoc?

[OKCisOK4me]

There is one way to figure this out:

DocThunder, do you think OKC could ever host the Olympics?
What are your thoughts on Braum's?
Have you ever heard of MagLev technology?
If you had money to build a tower in Norman, where would you build it and why?

Hahaha^^

[CuatrodeMayo]

Do you like train whistles?

[hoya]

How can that be when everyone originally thought DocThunder was Soondoc?

Oh, you can have three screen names pretty easily.

[Paseofreak]

I don't know. There are 5 or 6 posters that don't seem to understand basic economic principles.

Yeah, the recent uptick of emotionally driven nonsense has had me considering an extended break from here. It's just frustrating to hear the baseless demands over and over again.

[OKCisOK4me]

Yeah, the recent uptick of emotionally driven nonsense has had me considering an extended break from here. It's just frustrating to hear the baseless demands over and over again.

As if the developers are going to succumb to our deepest desires, lol.

[kevinpate]

pretty renderings and wishes aside, I find myself at times pondering what financial level of cleanup will be necessary for the site.

[dankrutka]

Yeah, the recent uptick of emotionally driven nonsense has had me considering an extended break from here. It's just frustrating to hear the baseless demands over and over again.

Just block those posters whom don't add to the conversation. It makes a big difference.

[Paseofreak]

Thanks! Let the culling begin.