General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

[s00nr1]

Great minds think alike, David.

[Achilleslastand]

I am hoping that we get some major snow next weekend but the way things have been going I wont be shocked at all if we get zilch.

[OkieHornet]

this is going to be a great stretch of nice weather for most of the next week. 50s and 60s and sunny.

[John1744]

Local mets still aren't buying the storm on the 1st. Most are just showing a 20% chance of rain.

[venture]

Local mets still aren't buying the storm on the 1st. Most are just showing a 20% chance of rain.

I doubt they will really latch on to it until another day or 2 passes and the forecast is with in the window for the NWS office as well. When Gary came to my class to speak several years ago, he made it clear that most of the time they just copy/paste the NWS forecast. Sure track can always be different than what forecasts are saying now, but I would say it is pretty well set that the region will have a decent storm that weekend come through. Specifics will get fine tuned as we get closer.

I'll add...when NWS says they are favoring one model (Euro) at the moment, that's where the locals will tend to go. With the recent upgrades to the GFS and the accuracy it has had with this new version...I'm favoring that for now. Not saying things can't change. Just like with hurricane forecasts...day 3 through 5 that margin of error on track gets much wider - no different here.

[kevinpate]

Curious as to what the Feb 13-15 weekend might look like in central and south central OK and north Texas. Any crystal ball info you might have is appreciated. Will accept any science based predictions as well

[Tydude]

Weather Channel App is saying on Saturday High of 49 60 percent chance of Rain

[venture]

Weather Channel App is saying on Saturday High of 49 60 percent chance of Rain

Good thing we don't rely on the Weather Channel for anything here.

Really the forecast is still some what of a toss up for this system. GFS has now gone 3-4 runs being warmer but still with the most precip. While Euro is a bit drier but colder.

[Tydude]

KOCO 5 says that North Oklahoma could see Ice while South Oklahoma which include OKC Metro area could see Cold Rain.Temp is above Freezing for Saturday

[venture]

00Z GFS keeping trend from the last 24 hours. Rain/Snow mix moves in Friday afternoon over W OK. Rain spreads east over the body of the state, still rain/snow mix over the west. Light to moderate rain continues overnight, with snow NW, and will last through the first half of Saturday. Rain starts to end from north to south through the day on Saturday and into the evening. GFS has backed off on extent of cold air over all...taking us below freezing on Saturday evening but back above on Sunday.

Things can only change, but precip amounts are still decent but not as great as they were before...

[Anonymous.]

This blizzard hitting the NE early this week should help the models figure out the cold air situation better, also the track of our (coming) storm. Once we get this out of the way, we should have a better idea of how much cold air is pulled down ahead of our storm. We will be in cold nights/mild days pattern all week.

Our storm also looks to turn into another blizzard for the NE heading into early next week, as well - GFS says some areas up there could have near 4 feet of snow over the next week and a half.

This morning's run for our storm looks like rain still for most of OK. Then cold air comes flying into the NW/W sides of OK and tries to change over to snow before the storm scoots off. The predicted speed of the storm has increased - thus less precip. and time for cold air to have an effect.

[s00nr1]

Our internal Euro trending colder and wetter:



GEM trending higher for snowfall:

[venture]

GFS starting to trend wetter over the state.

All of these images are through 12AM Sunday Morning/Saturday Night. This is to show the trend of how GFS has been moving the heavier precip back north over the last several runs. Latest run is on the left and getting older as you go to the right.

Monday 12Z	Monday 6Z	Monday 0Z (Sunday Evening)	Sunday 18Z	Sunday 12Z

[Anonymous.]

If we get anywhere close to 1.5 or 2 inches of moisture that would be huge for winter in OK. Would really help the drought heading into late winter/early spring.

[s00nr1]

12Z GEM:

12pm Saturday:



6pm Saturday:



12am Sunday

[Bobby821]

those GEM Runs don't look too promising for heavy snow for us. do they?

[Achilleslastand]

*Question*
Being that we need the moisture badly what would me more beneficial to us the rain or snow? I am guessing the rain but am not sure.

[venture]

*Question*
Being that we need the moisture badly what would me more beneficial to us the rain or snow? I am guessing the rain but am not sure.

Rain is better for filling lakes and rivers. Snow is better for ground water and crops.

[venture]

those GEM Runs don't look too promising for heavy snow for us. do they?

[Bobby821]

So is this storm turning out to be a bust for us? I am not seeing the NWS or local weathermen saying much about snow or ice, they are mostly saying it will be just be a cold rain for us. This is confusing the models say snow but the NWS and locals are just saying rain.

[Anonymous.]

GFS keeps giving us more and more precip each run. But it is all rain. Looks like close to 2 inches of rain across the SE 2/3 of the state.

Unless there is a pretty strong surge of cold air, it looks like it will likely be rain.

[LakeEffect]

So is this storm turning out to be a bust for us? I am not seeing the NWS or local weathermen saying much about snow or ice, they are mostly saying it will be just be a cold rain for us. This is confusing the models say snow but the NWS and locals are just saying rain.

It's too early to put a finger on anything specific... looks like moisture will come, and temps will be cool; around freezing some of the time.

Can't really call a model a bust - models constantly change as their inputs change. A bust would be the forecast for 36" of snow in NYC and 8" actually falling...

[jn1780]

So is this storm turning out to be a bust for us? I am not seeing the NWS or local weathermen saying much about snow or ice, they are mostly saying it will be just be a cold rain for us. This is confusing the models say snow but the NWS and locals are just saying rain.

If it ends up raining this weekend and the drought situation improves a bit, I wouldn't call the storm a bust.

[Anonymous.]

12Z coming in for GFS is even warmer.

[LakeEffect]

12Z coming in for GFS is even warmer.

But just as wet?