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Thread: General Weather Discussion - January/February 2015

  1. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Watching radar it does appear the melting layer is starting to come down a decent amount now. Earlier model runs had change over around 3AM-ish. Looking at the HCA image for radar...definitely getting close to a change over if we can get some cooling in the lower 1000 or so feet.


  2. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Looking at trends with temps / wet bulb / dewpoints...it looks like greatest chance for change over to snow is going to run just south of I-40 from Minco over to Norman. Right now mPING reports have snow in Weatherford already. Right now they are running about 4 degrees cooler on Temp/DP/Wet Bulb than Norman for example.

  3. #178

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    This band just isn't moving. Amarillo is going to need snow blowers to get out of this one if this keeps up.

    The system should have been diving south by now, but it keeps barely sliding E/NE - keeping this band directly over I40.


    Hinton to El Reno should see change over to snow very soon, then OKC. Grassy surface accumulations likely if the band stays.

  4. #179

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Agreed, venture. Just south of OKC and west still looks like a good spot for snow accumulations, if the band sags south before dying out - lower atmosphere temp profile should be just about right.

  5. #180

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Snow change over approaching El Reno to Mustang in the next hour. OKC by 2:30am will likely be snow.

  6. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Norman's air temp has been dropping at least 2 degrees an hour since about 10pm. We are down to 36 so far now and it seems areas that are around 34 or lower are in the snow. So definitely agree change over isn't far off if this trend continues.

  7. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    We are now moving over to a wet snow now in Norman. Heavy band of precip is starting to sink further south. This is starting to look like it could play out where areas from Norman and west could see some wet snow accumulation over the next few hours.

  8. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Brief update. Just as anticipated, temps in Norman and west continue to drop. Norman is now below freezing, while most Oklahoma County locations are still around 36.

    HRRR indicates precip over the Metro area should end by 8AM. Things will need to be watched south of I-40 for the snow / freezing rain mix that we'll have now.

  9. #184

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Snowing at the airport. Still a mix of rain but the snow is taking over

  10. #185

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Back to rain only at the airport.

  11. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Starting to get a nice dusting in Norman now. Roads should remain fine though.

  12. #187

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Looks like NAM wasn't too far off, just slightly aggressive on temperatures becoming favorable for snow to reach surface.

    Kind of a waste of an epic snowband. To put it simply, most everyone along I-40 would have close to 10 inches of snow if it had been a handful of degrees cooler.

    Amarillo is shut down with up to 15 inches in some spots.

  13. #188

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Right now it looks like our next storm (Feb 1) will be rain. Models can't decide if it will be cold enough. Regardless, some beneficial moisture will be nice.

  14. #189

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Newest GFS for end of month/beginning of Feb storm is pretty intense. Very powerful storm as it looks right now.

  15. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    Newest GFS for end of month/beginning of Feb storm is pretty intense. Very powerful storm as it looks right now.
    This has pretty well been the trend for the last week, but yesterday it appeared to have a hiccup for one or two runs taking the storm way south. Now it is bumped back up and the last 2-3 runs have it being heavy rain to snow. I'm sure things will keep bouncing around a bit, but it has been very consistent at least in having a storm system around the time frame in the general area.

  16. #191

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Yea the recent consistency of GFS is mind blowing. If it means anything for our next storm, we may be measuring snow in feet, not inches.

  17. #192

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    with a disturbance 9 days out, where is its location today?

  18. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    Yea the recent consistency of GFS is mind blowing. If it means anything for our next storm, we may be measuring snow in feet, not inches.
    I think that speaks volumes about the work everyone put in to the upgrades that went in a week ago.

  19. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Looks like it has also went back the colder/snow solution it had for awhile with the 18Z run...


  20. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Quote Originally Posted by OkieHornet View Post
    with a disturbance 9 days out, where is its location today?
    It isn't easy to pick out this specific piece of energy/storm system...but my best guess is that right now it is over northern Russia. However, it is going to be a combination of things. Around Jan 30th a low appears it will form off the California coast and dive ESE through Texas and then start to curve back NE to the east of us. There is also what appears to be an ejection of energy come from British Columbia starting around the 28th and getting here on the 31st where it combines with the low moving through Texas.

  21. #196

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    that's a lot of moving parts, huh? sounds like all it takes is one part of that to wobble around in location or time for it to mess things up for good or bad.

  22. #197

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Early morning GFS depicts southern track of storm again. Dropping pretty much a foot of snow over the northern half of TX. Have to see what we got for 12Z.

  23. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    GFS still sticking with a heavy precip solution for next weekend -- we shall see where the cold air is:


  24. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Beauty of a storm shaping up for late next week/weekend and early following week. Same system we've been talking about for days now, but if the 12Z GFS verifies it would do wonders in helping with the drought and fire concerns going forward. Granted this will all change later today, but you know...

    Onset of precip starts the evening of the 30th over Western OK. Looks like a rain/snow mix over many areas. This will spread over much of the state through Midnight going into the 31st with the primary precip type being rain. Cold front will enter the state starting around Noon on Saturday the 31st. Most precip will be liquid prior to then with the state getting some good amounts of water - heavier south. Moderate/heavy rain continues through Sunday morning as the front approaches I-44 around or just after noon. Behind the front heavy snow appears to be the rule. Full change over in OKC should take place between Noon and 6PM (yeah that is a big window right now). Snow should end by very early Monday morning just after midnight on the 2nd.

    Liquid (melted down) totals look pretty great for the state. The metro could see over 1.5-2" of precip. Snowfall of course is a rough guess right now, but the Metro could see a quick 3-6" snowfall before it ends. One thing that will need to be watched of course is the speed of the cold air entering in. General rule of thumb is cold air typically moves in faster than what models predict. Right now it looks like we should be below freezing from 925 MB level (roughly 1000' up) by 11AM - this should start the change over to snow. Surface temps aren't expected to be below freezing until 6PM. The key thing here is the bulk of the heavy precip rolls in late Sunday morning when temps start falling. If the cold air gets in faster than expected - big time snow for more people. As predicted this morning...a good balance of heavy rain followed by heavy snow.

    Either way...GFS has locked on to this thing for a significant time now. That says something.

    Precip Forecasts...




  25. #200

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - January 2015

    Channel 5 an 9 is giving this a 20 percent of rain on a week from Today high of 43.

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