2014 Tropical Weather Discussion

[venture]

Arthur officially upgraded to the first hurricane of 2014 for the Atlantic season.

HURRICANE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
500 AM EDT THU JUL 03 2014

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Arthur has reached hurricane strength. Both aircraft
showed several SFMR winds of 60 to 63 kt southeast of the center,
and the NOAA aircraft reported a peak flight-level wind of 79 kt at
8,000 feet. Based on these data the initial intensity is set to 65
kt. Radar data show that Arthur was still having difficulty
maintaining an eyewall overnight, likely due to dry mid/upper-level
air being entrained into the storm. However, the overall radar
presentation has improved during the past couple of hours. Some
gradual intensification is forecast during the next 24 hours while
the cyclone is in an environment of low shear and moves over warm
waters. After that time, however, the shear increases dramatically
as Arthur interacts with a deep-layer baroclinic zone moving off
of the east coast of North America, and global model fields show
Arthur completing extratropical transition by 72 hours. The NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and remains close
to the multi-model consensus IVCN through 24 hours and is a little
below the consensus after that time.

Radar data and aircraft fixes indicate that the current motion is
now a little east of due north, or 010 degrees at 8 knots. Arthur
should begin to recurve today ahead of the aforementioned deep-layer
trough, and the track model guidance is in good agreement on this
scenario. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and
remains near the middle of the dynamical model envelope and close
to the TVCA multi-model consensus. The official forecast shows the
center of Arthur moving very close to the North Carolina Outer Banks
late tonight and early Friday. Arthur should then accelerate
northeastward offshore of the mid-Atlantic states and the
northeastern U.S. Friday and Friday night, and move into the
Canadian Maritimes by Saturday before turning northward by the end
of the period.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecast during the
extratropical phase of Arthur have been coordinated with the Ocean
Prediction Center.

The new experimental potential storm surge flooding map is
available at: www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?inundation

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 31.3N 79.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 32.5N 78.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 34.7N 76.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 37.5N 72.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 40.9N 67.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 47.5N 60.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 07/0600Z 54.0N 52.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 08/0600Z 60.0N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[venture]

Arthur's eye from the Charleston radar site this morning...

[warreng88]

My sister in law is in Charleston now. She went there to enjoy the beach... Guess she'll have to wait.

[venture]

Arthur should make landfall late today or tonight in NC as a Cat 2 storm before curving out NE. It is only about 45 miles from the coast right now. Here is another snap shot at 1PM today...

[venture]

For the radar geeks...storm relative velocity image of Arthur. The pinks in the NE section of the storm are winds 65-80 kts. Granted not 100% accurate, the radar image does bring a neat perspective. Especially when we are use to seeing rotating on a much smaller scale here in the plains.

[venture]

Arthur is now a Cat 2 storm.

[Easy180]

Thankfully for our coastal friends most of the rain is on the east side of the storm.

[venture]

Next system on deck. This one has already had an "eye" like feature with it, but is still classified as a disturbance. Expect advisories to start soon.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure located
about 1250 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has continued to
increase and show signs of organization during the past few hours.
Satellite data indicate that the circulation has become better
defined and the system is producing a small area of winds near
tropical storm force. Only a small increase in organization of the
shower activity would result in the formation of a tropical
depression as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15
to 20 mph during the next day or two. After that time, however,
environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for
development or strengthening. Interests in the Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Brennan

[venture]

Advisories on TD 2 have started, but doesn't look like it will last long.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022014
500 PM AST MON JUL 21 2014

The area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic has shown an
increase in convective organization today. Despite the fact that the
convection remains somewhat shallow, it has enough coverage and
organization to classify the system as a tropical cyclone. An ASCAT
pass around 1210 UTC was not conclusive in regards to whether the
surface circulation was closed, but given the persistence of the
convection, we are assuming that the circulation is closed and
are initiating advisories at this time.

The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on data from the ASCAT pass.
The environment is marginal, at best, for development during the
next couple of days, as the depression will be moving over marginal
SSTs and into a region characterized by dry air and subsidence as it
approaches the Caribbean Sea. Most of the global model guidance and
the HWRF shows the system weakening and dissipating by 48 to 72
hours. The official forecast follows suit, but the cyclone could
dissipate sooner than shown here. The SHIPS and LGEM intensity
forecasts seem much too high in this scenario, and are not given
much weight in the official forecast.

The initial motion is quickly toward the west or 280/14 knots. The
cyclone will be steered by the Atlantic subtropical ridge during its
life span, and should remain on a westward to west-northwestward
heading with an increase in forward speed. The NHC track forecast is
close to a blend of the HWRF and the GEFS ensemble mean. Note that
the global models are having a difficult time tracking the small
vortex, and confidence in the details of the track forecast is lower
than usual.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 11.6N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 11.9N 45.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 12.3N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 12.8N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 13.4N 54.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 15.0N 61.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[venture]

Big Island of Hawai'i to get a direct hit today from Hurricane Iselle.



Here is a satellite image of Iselle in the middle and Hurricane Julio following right behind (should go just north of the islands but still cause some impacts).

[venture]

Well...we are getting to that time of the year. The Atlantic looks like it has the potential to light up starting this week. Two disturbances out there, main focus here is going to be the one designated Invest 96L. To the East of 96L is a weak distance that isn't going to be in a very favorable climate for development and NHC is only pegging it at 20%. So will bypass that one for now.

Invest 96L will be passing over the islands into the Caribbean here in a few days. Forecast models really start to ramp this puppy up taking it to a TS with in 24-36 hours. A good number of the primary models take it to a hurricane between 60 and 72 hours. Then there appears to be a notable weakening after that, likely due to interactions with Hispaniola and eventually Cuba. Now the interesting part. Longer range models take this storm into the Gulf by 150 to 168 hours out...roughly a week from today. The exactly location is obviously going to have a wide spread when it comes to margin of error. Generally it is anywhere from South Florida to the Western tip of Cuba. What happens to it after that is anyones guess...but the GFS seems to have one that might impact Oklahoma.

The 18Z run favors a southerly solution taking the storm over Western Cuba into the Central Gulf. GFS maintains a WNW track through the Gulf bringing the storm on shore near the TX/LA border the morning of Thursday the 28th. By Friday the central of the tropical storm would be near Fort Smith. It quickly then moves off to the NE by the weekend.

Obviously where ever it tracks, very heavy rain will fall. It is way to far out to call it on how it will go, as of right now it appears it would keep most of the rain out over far E OK and AR. While we continue to bake. However, a couple other notables...

Another tropical system could be on going in the Pacific at the same time and as it moves north, that moisture could make its way over here as we've seen in the past. Also...GFS wants to bring another tropical system on shore into Central Texas by the 3rd of September. Usually that is the sweet spot for us to get a tropical system up over us. This is 2 weeks out though and most likely won't even happen, but I figured I would pass that on.

For now...keep a watchful eye on what is developing out there now. We'll see what happens. Of course we don't want to see a major hurricane hit land, but we can't discount how huge a tropical storm and it's moisture would mean for this area.

[venture]

Impacts the US seem to be decreasing with the new model runs. Majority now swing a hurricane out to sea and avoid the East Coast.

Still too early to lock this in, but it is the latest trend.

[venture]

Models this morning seem to be trending back to a US landfall, possibly. Where? Anyones guess. System is still trying to organize, but it is looking much better.

[venture]

Advisories have started on TD Four.

[venture]

The Atlantic basin seems to be waking up very quickly now. Four areas that are being watched...

1) Hurricane Cristobal which is just east of the Bahamas and may threaten Bermuda soon. Convection with that has really started to increase finally. It does appear the center is still exposed on the Northern side so no rapid strengthening. Afterwards appears it will stay away from land until passing over Greenland and Iceland next Monday as an extratropical low.

2) Invest 97L in the Central Atlantic. Guidance has this as a Tropical Storm in a couple days. Estimated track is fairly consistent in the models with most clustered on a WNW track for the next 48 hours or so. Beyond that there is some disagreement on where it goes. It does appear that there won't be a trough to pick this one up and take it away. Still too far out to determine if this goes South into the Gulf or makes landfall on the SE US coast...or if it even gets its act together to begin with.

3) A new wave is moving off Africa today that will track along the ITCZ. Models are slowly picking up on this one and the GFS tonight develops it but keeps it spinning out in the Central Atlantic and not making the trip very far west. This won't be the last. Central Africa is pretty stacked up with waves it looks like for the next week or so.

4) Finally an area of disturbed weather in the Northern Gulf has raised some flags, but not major development is forecast. This could bring some heavy rains into Eastern Texas as it meets up with the front visiting us in a couple days.

[venture]

Gulf system is increasing rapidly today. It is now called Invest 98. Convection is exploding at a pretty good clip this morning north of the center. Need to keep an eye on it and may finally active the chat room for something.

[Anonymous.]

If it keeps idling over the water for a bit, it could get going. Looks like this will be dragged into our stalled front later this week and move over OK (probably eastern).

[venture]

Advisories on TD 5 started this afternoon. TS Warnings for the Mexican Gulf Coast. Landfall is set for early Weds morning.

[venture]

Peak season for the Atlantic Season is here and we have 4 systems right now.

TS Eduoard is out in the middle of the Atlantic and no threat to land and should stay out at sea. Will be a hurricane in a couple days.

Next the three unnamed systems...

Invest 92 is the system over Florida right now. It is expected to continue to move west and make landfall somewhere from Louisiana to Texas in about 3 days. Models are split keeping it weak and barely a depression and others go towards as weak tropical storm. The SHIPS goes a little crazy and takes it to a hurricane.

Invest 93 is out in the Eastern Atlantic right now and should keep going WNW and it'll be several days before it might become any concern towards land.

Invest 94 is a new system developing in the Bay of Campeche. Models don't have a good handle on it yet, but generally should move North into either Mexico or Texas.

[venture]

Atlantic is waking up a bit. Subtropical Storm Fay is south of Bermuda heading NE. Two more areas of interest out in the Central Atlantic. The furthest west one could pose a big threat to the Bahamas, but should recurve before impacting the US.

[Plutonic Panda]

This isn't really topical or hurricane I don't think, but more typhoon area storms. Pretty interesting to see this.

Strongest storm this year? | Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com

[ljbab728]

This isn't really topical or hurricane I don't think, but more typhoon area storms. Pretty interesting to see this.

Strongest storm this year? | Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com

Actually that is a tropical storm but it's called a typhoon in that part of the world instead of a hurricane. They are the same type of storm.