General Weather Discussion - July 2014

[Bunty]

Once again my place in Carter County gets skirted by the 1"+ totals.... It's like we have a freaking dome over us.

I was watching radar of the rain moving from the West this morning and it would get to Healdton and then just start to dissipate.

It's also been that way in Stillwater for most of the year. However, with this go around, it's like I got bypassed by the bypass and got 2 1/2 inches of rain for a two day total.

[mugofbeer]

Hopefully a billion dollar mid summer rain! Very welcome by virtually everyone!

[soonerguru]

Altus killed it with this storm.

[Anonymous.]

By the way. Looking ahead...

Ridge of the death looks to be making a comeback next week.

[bchris02]

By the way. Looking ahead...

Ridge of the death looks to be making a comeback next week.

Looking forward to July coming back. While I totally don't want another summer like 2011 or 2012, I enjoy sunny days with temperatures in the high 90s.

[SoonerDave]

While I know we've all enjoyed the much-needed rain and respite from the heat, I think a little sunshine would be welcome, and my tomato plants would probably like some, too.

Then again, a heat-ridge-of-doom might postpone getting my house painted....alas....

[FighttheGoodFight]

So do we think August is going to be the 100 degree multiple days month this year?

This rain has really been nice. A great cool summer so far!

[SoonerDave]

So do we think August is going to be the 100 degree multiple days month this year?

This rain has really been nice. A great cool summer so far!

It would seem given alll the rain we've had this year that the ground evaporation would keep the humidity high enough to prevent the really searing heat at least for a while, but that's just speculation.

[venture]

Next Friday looks absolutely terrible when you factor in the moisture we have. Will probably see Heat Advisories go up for next week.



However! Looks like another big trough develops over the Central & Eastern US that will push the ridge out to the SW and stick us in a NW Flow for the end of the month into the first part of August. Chance of storm complexes increase around the 30th through the 2nd.

[BG918]

It would seem given alll the rain we've had this year that the ground evaporation would keep the humidity high enough to prevent the really searing heat at least for a while, but that's just speculation.

It helps but soil moisture is still low across the state even with the recent rains. Most of Oklahoma is still in moderate to severe drought. I still think a tropical system is needed to really improve the situation, or a very rainy fall pattern.

[Anonymous.]

Next week will indeed be steamy. Upper 90s with high humidity. That is one downfall of rains in the summer. However, I will take the pain to go with the moisture.

Agreed venture, however the long-term GFS this summer has been very bipolar from what I have seen thus far. I don't buy anything until it reaches relatively short term forecast window. But nothing wrong with hoping!

[venture]

Next week will indeed be steamy. Upper 90s with high humidity. That is one downfall of rains in the summer. However, I will take the pain to go with the moisture.

Agreed venture, however the long-term GFS this summer has been very bipolar from what I have seen thus far. I don't buy anything until it reaches relatively short term forecast window. But nothing wrong with hoping!

True about the long range GFS... We just have to hope! At least it didn't bust as bad as Nam did with the recent rain. Lol

[Plutonic Panda]

Looking forward to July coming back. While I totally don't want another summer like 2011 or 2012, I enjoy sunny days with temperatures in the high 90s.

I'll have to whisper so Venture doesn't hear this, but I enjoyed that summer

[Uncle Slayton]

I'll have to whisper so Venture doesn't hear this, but I enjoyed that summer

Me too...I have a pic I occasionally use as a screen saver of a bank clock by my house reading 123 degrees. I miss that.

[venture]

I'll have to whisper so Venture doesn't hear this, but I enjoyed that summer

You can have it next summer when I'm not around anymore. :-P

[Bullbear]

I will never miss 123 degree heat.. I have enjoyed a mild summer last year and so far this year.. I am fine with this trend.. while I don't want it in the 60's for july all the time it was ok for a few days and if we stayed in the 70-95 range all summer i's be in heaven!

[Bunty]

Temperatures only getting as high as the high 90's would feel like summer enough for me in Oklahoma. I don't need 100's for summer.

[venture]

12Z GFS is keeping the Great Lakes trough off to the east for much of its forecast window now. Still a shot at some precip next week, but it appears the NW flow will setup to the NE of us. Temps around 100 here...Great Lakes will be in the 70s.

[Roger S]

...Great Lakes will be in the 70s.

Sounds like a good time for me to go visit friends in Wayne, MI.

[Snowman]

They are forecasting the next three months should have above average precipitation, though they tend not to be our most rainy months anyway, so hard to say how much an impact it would be.

[Anonymous.]

Long range out look:

Ridge of death until about August, then looks like potential pattern swing.

[Of Sound Mind]

long range out look:

Ridge of death until about august, then looks like potential pattern swing.

NoOoOoOoOoO!

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1441
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SOUTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHERN MO/EASTERN OK AND
WESTERN/NORTHERN AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 231656Z - 231830Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND/SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DEVELOP/INCREASE WHILE OTHERWISE SPREADING GENERALLY
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE REGION /ESPECIALLY AR AND OK/.

DISCUSSION...AIDED BY A PROBABLE MCV AND A MODEST SURFACE COLD
POOL...A SMALL QUASI-LINEAR COMPLEX HAS GRADUALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF
GROWING UPSCALE/INTENSIFYING ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS OVER THE PAST
HOUR. A 49 KT WIND GUST WAS RECENTLY /1617Z/ MEASURED AT CHANUTE KS.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING CONVECTIVE /LIKELY BASED
IN THE MID-LEVELS AT THIS TIME/ IS NOTED NEAR/WEST OF THE LITTLE
ROCK AR VICINITY. GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION VIA RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE
SKIES...THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION CONTINUES TO AGGRESSIVE
WARM/DESTABILIZE...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM
SPRINGFIELD/NORMAN/LITTLE ROCK INDICATIVE OF AS MUCH AS 2500-4500
J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS EASTERN OK/FAR SOUTHERN MO AND
WESTERN/NORTHERN AR. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/EXPAND AND
BECOME INCREASINGLY SURFACE-BASED ..WITH A RELATIVELY STRONG BELT OF
MID-LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WINDS CONTRIBUTING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT/SUSTENANCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING QUASI-LINEAR
CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL.

..GUYER/HART.. 07/23/2014

[venture]

FYI....TLX radar in Central OK is down right now.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM
UNTIL 800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80
MPH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF HARRISON ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF DE
QUEEN ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

DISCUSSION...MULTIPLE CLUSTERS OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE/MERGE AND GENERALLY SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRE-STORM AIR MASS HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AS HIGH AS 3000-5000 J/KG...WITH STORM
ORGANIZATION LIKELY TO BE AIDED BY MODERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
MID-LEVEL WINDS. DAMAGING WINDS AND BOUTS OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 01045.