Re: 2014 Oklahoma Commercial Aviation Discussion
Well now is as good of time as any to do a mid-year review of where we are are. Just a quick note. The detailed Q1 report is not yet available to break down actual route performance per operating airline, so this is going to be some what high level in that respect. Generally overall though this year as progressed as expected from what I said in the initial post. Here are the details per carrier.
Allegiant Air
Entered the market in November of last year. They will suspend service on August 10th of this year and are said to return in the Spring of 2015. This tends to indicate that the Winter revenues were lower than needed to bring the service back earlier. The airline operated 2 weekly MD-80s to Sanford, FL outside of Orlando. Loads weren't terrible through the first part of the year. They launched end of 2013 with a 71% load factor which rose to 85% in December. In January they dropped to 76%, Feb increased to 86%, and March even better at 90%. Based on this I would expect we'll see them restart at the end of February to catch the beginning of Spring break traffic. I don't expect any additional service until we see loads in the mid 90s.
American / Envoy / American Eagle / US Airways / US Airways Express
The merger with US Airways was of course the big news of last year and the integration will take place through this year and next. As reported, the expectation was that we would be connect to a US Airways hub at some point after the merger. Next month that officially happens with the addition of CRJ-900 service to Charlotte on twice daily service. We will also see US Airways Express operator Mesa take over the AA service to Los Angeles with the CR9s. The rebanking of hubs hasn't completely kicked in yet, so no major changes announced for service to DFW or ORD.
Breaking down performance is hard to do until the detailed Q1 report comes out, but this is out the airline operations look overall. American mainline has a 73.88% load factor for Q1. January they were absolutely horrible at 67% climbing to 81% in Feb be before falling back in March to 73.8%. Envoy Airlines, formerly American Eagle Airlines formerly Simmons Airlines, had a similarly rough Q1. Jan 65.7%, Feb 71.6%, and Mar 75.3%. Envoy provides the lift to ORD and LAX and one of the Eagle flights to DFW.
Dallas/Ft Worth service saw an increase 1 daily nonstop with an additional American Eagle flight, bringing service to 9 daily nonstops. AA ground handling scope restricts stations that do not have mainline ramp employees from having more than 7 mainline departures. Based on this I don't see us ever getting mainline back to Chicago or to CLT. This means we are pretty good candidate to get the Embraer EJets as they come online, especially to ORD. O'Hare service saw an increase to 5 this year over 4 flights during this past winter. LAX has been flat at 2 flights but will see an upgauge to a Mesa CR9 from an Envoy CR7.
Delta Air Lines / Delta Connection and friends
Delta has maintained 100% mainline to ATL and is now all MD-80s for the Summer from the mix of 737s, M88s, and 319s. No major changes expected for the most part. Detroit has increased to 3 daily from the Winter with 1 CR9 and 2 CR7s. MSP remains at 3 flights but the AM flight had an upgauge to a CR9, other two remain CRJ-200s. SLC remains at 3 flights as well but saw the opposite with a downgrade to a CR7 on the AM flight and the rest remain CR7s. Delta mainline had a weak Q1 with both Jan and Feb at 69% full and March at 77% full. I'm not going to bother attempting to break down the connection carriers right now until we get detail results.
Frontier Airlines
Frontier has remained pretty strong in the market. They ended 2013 with a load factor around 90% for the year and had loads as high as 95% for December. January did see dip to 79% but rebounded in Feb at 90.9% and March at 91%. Their schedule remains at 2 daily flights on A319s. No changed expected.
Southwest Airlines / AirTran Airways
Southwest remains marginal in the market load factor wise, but still has nonstop service to more markets from OKC than any other airline. Jan loads were at 70.6%, Feb at 71.7%, and March at 79.4%. This is an improvement of 5% pts per month over last year. The AirTran side of the operation which include MDW and ATL for this portion were absolutely dreadful. In Jan loads were at 54.5%, Feb 53.7%, and March at 67.8%. I believe the MDW flights are the ones most impacting this number, but we'll know more soon. Main impacts being felt is the loss of one daily flight to Dallas Love going down to 3 daily flights - the lowest in decades. St. Louis is up to 2 daily flights again though taking the station to 21 daily flights. WN took MDW service back over from AirTran (FL) and will take over ATL in August. These change overs mean and increase in capacity going from a 117 seat 717 to a 143 seat 737-700.
United Airlines / United Express
Finally UAL or Continental or whoever you want to call them. Is pretty comparable to the others. This is for mainline only, which is limited for this market, had a 74.8% load factor in Jan, 83.4% in Feb, and 76.1% in March. Much of the service though is operated by contract carriers so we'll have to wait for the actual detailed breakdown. ORD remains at 3 with 1 CR7 and 2 ERJs. Cleveland service is dead due to the dehubbing there. DEN, which use to be an all mainline route a few years ago, is all United Express still like it transitioned to this past winter. Relatively same mix of aircraft of CR7s, a DH8 Q400, and an ERJ on the same 5 daily flights. IAH service remains at 10 flights per day. Equipment mix is ERJ - 7, CR7 - 2, 737 - 1. LAX remains one daily CR7. SFO is one daily CR7. IAD is one daily CR7. Finally EWR is one daily ERJ still, but word is that we'll start seeing some periodic upgrades to a 170 on certain days.
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Originally Posted by venture
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