General Weather Discussion - May 2014

[venture]

So the low is finally moving by?

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy S5

Not yet. Still out in NM.

Update...storm moving up through McClain/Cleveland county will have heavy rain and some hail. Got a tweet about a wall cloud with the storm up in Harrah, but nothing significant out there.

[venture]

Left turning storm over Moore has a chance of bringing some pretty gusty winds to South OKC, Valley Brooke, Moore, and eventually Downtown if it holds together.

South Norman getting some good rain, with more coming up from Goldsby. Another stronger storm out east of Blanchard heading for Newcastle.

[soonerguru]

Canton Lake has come up 4% in the last couple of days. Here's to more rain in the basin.

Canton Lake

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0716
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0618 PM CDT MON MAY 26 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN TX INTO SWRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 262318Z - 270045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG-MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING WITH A RISK FOR HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN REGIONAL RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA INDICATE
THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF A N-S-ORIENTED BAND OF TSTMS FROM KIOWA
COUNTY OK INTO WILBARGER AND NRN BAYLOR COUNTIES TX...NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF A COUPLE OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THE LOCAL
ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY A RELATIVELY WARM...MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG ESTIMATED BY LATEST RAP-BASED
GUIDANCE.

STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE EVENING AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/DCVA STRENGTHENS AHEAD
OF THE EWD-MOVING UPPER LOW. WHILE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF HAIL AND
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS --AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO-- ARE
POSSIBLE...LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAGNITUDE WILL REMAIN
RATHER WEAK OWING TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER
/REF. CURRENT FREDRICK OK WSR-88D VAD/.

..MEAD.. 05/26/2014

[Klop]

Left turning storm over Moore has a chance of bringing some pretty gusty winds to South OKC, Valley Brooke, Moore, and eventually Downtown if it holds together.

South Norman getting some good rain, with more coming up from Goldsby. Another stronger storm out east of Blanchard heading for Newcastle.

Isn't this type of left turning storm unusual? I was watching 9 and Payne was talking about that.

[bchris02]

So far the OKC area has barely received enough rainfall from this system to put a dent in the May deficit let alone the yearly deficit. Do you think any of this rain will park over OKC before all is said and done?

[Easy180]

Have only had an extremely brief and sad shower here in far SW OKC today

[Achilleslastand]

Gotten some nice{not great}rain totals since Friday here in NW OKC.

[pw405]

Still pretty jealous here in Norman. Got an OK sprinkling earlier, but we are still way short. I'm hoping we end up repeating June of 07/08 when it seemed to rain all month. Luckily western OK seems to be getting a pretty good drenching these past few days. Long overdue.

[Bunty]

Today, much of the northeast quadrant of Oklahoma is where it's at for the most good rain. Amounts fairly common in the 1 to 3 inch range.

During these rainy days Stillwater has been largely bypassed, especially if you live on the wrong side of town. Stillwater Regional Airport has only had .21" so far, while my side of town has had .71". Most of that from late Sunday afternoon when a series of showers developed northeast of Oklahoma City and moved through.

It's unusually good how the rainy spell has been able to come about with hardly any storm watches put out for Oklahoma. Hopefully, a rainy pattern has been established strong and lasting enough to break the drought.

[bandnerd]

We've gotten several little showers and short downpours here on the west side of Lake Hefner. I'm happy to share it with others.

[venture]

Cut off low finally making progress east today. It is showing up really well on Visible satellite over SW OK. Rain continues on the north side of it and there will be some wrap around later today. Chances start to drop off pretty quick as it moves east. Norman is so freaking close to breaking its streak. It is currently at 0.24" for the last 24 hours. As it stands, it is now at day 50. Overall some welcome rain for a lot of Oklahoma from SW to NE. SE OK and and a few pockets in NW OK didn't cash in as much.

[soonerguru]

Cut off low finally making progress east today. It is showing up really well on Visible satellite over SW OK. Rain continues on the north side of it and there will be some wrap around later today. Chances start to drop off pretty quick as it moves east. Norman is so freaking close to breaking its streak. It is currently at 0.24" for the last 24 hours. As it stands, it is now at day 50. Overall some welcome rain for a lot of Oklahoma from SW to NE. SE OK and and a few pockets in NW OK didn't cash in as much.

This is the best rain for Altus in years. My clients there will be in good spirits. My folks in Elk City and Clinton have been pretty depressed lately about the conditions, so this will make them happy as well. On another note: wish there was a Mesonet station at my house. We've had close to three inches in West-Central OKC over the last few days.

[mblackwell]

Are there any severe weather days on the horizon?

[venture]

Are there any severe weather days on the horizon?

Middle of next week looks like we could see some. Also GFS has been hinting at a tropical system coming into the Gulf next week as well. So things will start to get more exciting here soon.

[venture]

Low appears to be centered between Lawton and Chickasha right now. New storms are forming just under the low, mostly on the east side of it. Movement is pretty minimal right now near the center, and to the east for the cells further south. Small hail and heavy rain main threat right now.

[venture]

Quick spin up funnels, that likely won't reach the ground, are going to be possible with any cell in the southern half of the storm system today - mainly south of Highway 19 at the current time. These might move as far north as Norman later this afternoon.

[bucfan1512]

Question: What is causing the storm to resemble a hurricane of sorts? I am here at work watching the radar and it just looks like everything is circling Ada?

[venture]

Question: What is causing the storm to resemble a hurricane of sorts? I am here at work watching the radar and it just looks like everything is circling Ada?

A hurricane is just an area of low pressure - that's all this is. Cut off lows tend to look like this.

[John1744]

I'm thinking that last little area is going to get nicely updated today, I live in Harrah and my folks live in Pottawatomie County in Bethel and it's been raining in both locations all day long.

[Anonymous.]

Perfect rain the last handful of days for most of the drought covered areas in TX and OK.

GFS can't decide if it is going to stall this low out again over AR, keeping eastern half of OK in pop-up showers/storms mode the next several days or not. With how this low has been crawling along, I would not be surprised.

Looks like we keep this unsettled pattern with below average temperatures for the first half of June!

[venture]

Yeah it should go away. Looking at the 12-hour rainfall totals the big number stations there all got more than a quarter inch of rain today. Norman (50 days) is at 0.29", Shawnee (61 days) is at 0.37", and Chandler (49) is at 0.55".

[soonerguru]

It's still raining moderately heavily in NW OKC, and has pretty much all day. This is one heck of a soaker.

[Anonymous.]

Hard to find central plain's tornado alley on this map so far this year.

OKC area has only had a single tornado watch so far this year. Zero so far for TX panhandle and most of KS.

[bchris02]

I thought I saw a tornado forming on my way back from Arkansas yesterday. It was near the Muskogee area. There was a definite wall cloud and a funnel tried to come down but didn't reach the ground.