General Weather Discussion - May 2014

[OKCisOK4me]

And that be for when?


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[venture]

And that be for when?


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Time stamp is top right corner...May 23rd. So we got awhile.

[venture]

Scattered showers and maybe a couple storms today. Movement will be S/SE and should fade once the sun goes down. Some of the heavier cores will have some pea sized hail with them.

[LocoAko]

Many regions in Oklahoma have slipped into 1st place for driest year-to-date on record with others slipping into 2nd place. It has been 1-3 months since some locations in Central OK and the panhandle have seen more than 0.25" in a day. Ugh..

[venture]

GFS still has storms coming in next Thursday through the holiday weekend. Severe risk seems low right now but it does want to push a bunch of heavy rain. While great news, we have to approach it with tempered belief because we have a strong drought going and it has been common to have heavy rain forecast far out and then for it to vanish as we get closer. If this forecast verifies, we could easily knock out many of the year's deficits across parts of the sate. However, I'm only about 10% confident that this is going to happen.

[OKCisOK4me]

Dump that rain up there and fill up Canton.


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[Achilleslastand]

Well 10% does not sound like you are that confident.

[OKCRT]

Dump that rain up there and fill up Canton.


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So how is canton lake doing these days? Haven't checked in a while but Hefner sure does need some water.

[venture]

So how is canton lake doing these days? Haven't checked in a while but Hefner sure does need some water.

As of midnight the 15th, it is at 21.96% full. So not much help coming from that direction anytime soon.

[venture]

Well 10% does not sound like you are that confident.

Indeed. This is why...huge drop in forecast amounts.

[venture]

Okay...maybe my 10% was a bit too...optimistic.

[Anonymous.]

My super greedy part of me wants no rain that weekend due to lake festivities. But I know we need it.

Let's just get it the following work week.

[SoonerDave]

My super greedy part of me wants no rain that weekend due to lake festivities. But I know we need it.

Let's just get it the following work week.

I hear ya there, Anon....we're having a graduation party on that Monday, and we've planned a cookout.....

[Roger S]

I hear ya there, Anon....we're having a graduation party on that Monday, and we've planned a cookout.....

I'm on vacation that week and plan on fishing every day but I would be perfectly happy to sit and watch it rain all week if it filled my 12' low pond.

[venture]

Storm Outlook...

Where we stand. 16 days done in May and we have had only 2 days with severe reports and 1 tornado. It is safe to say this has been one of the more complex, annoying, frustrating, perplexing Mays to forecast in awhile. Drought, poor timing of upper level support, and lack of deep moisture...you name it we've had it this month so far. While there are those thankful for the lack of severe weather, let's be honest - some of us weather geeks are feeling the withdraws. Also the one big benefit of the spring storm season are rains to help fill the lakes - which we badly need. This outlook will go through the end of the month. Forecast confidence beyond 3 days is about 10% or lower right now. So please keep that in mind.

Today - NW Flow continues to bring some light rain over Northern OK.

Sunday 5/18 through Thursday 5/22 - Dry

Friday 5/23 - Slight chance far W OK & PH.

Saturday 5/24 - Early/Morning Showers/Storms from previous night's activity. Then new development W of I-35 through the afternoon.

Sunday 5/25 - Moderate/Heavy Rain mainly south of I-40, some possible N of I-40. Additional storms developing in the afternoon. Severe possible.

Monday 5/26 - Moderate/Heavy rain during the AM, storms PM. Severe possible.

[venture]

As expected 12Z GFS did another flop for next weekend leaving us high and dry. I'm sure the run tonight will switch back.

The thing that really seems to be screwing us over right now on any precip is a definite June-like shift already.



That is for Tuesday the 27th. You can see the jet split over North America. You have a stronger Northern jet through the southern Provinces and Northern States. The southern jet is pretty meager and well into Mexico. Then a cut off low over the four corners area that That low comes on shore this coming Monday/Tuesday and then just meanders around and parks it. It should finally eject out on Wednesday the 28th but then completely dies off over us on Thursday. Here we are at the climatological peak of severe weather season and we are getting SPC outlooks stating "No Severe Thunderstorms Forecast" - that isn't normal.

It is very realistic at this point, tornado wise, we'll end May with the single one we have now. If we look at history since 1950, for the first 4 months of the year 1962 ended up being very similar numbers wise to this year. The thing with that though is in May of that year we came in with 33 and June with 21 tornadoes. We are possibly headed for only 5 through the first 5 months of the year. If we look at years with under 4 tornadoes per year we have...

1958, 1967, 1988, 2005, 2006, 2009, and 2012.

I would say strike 2012 off the list because we had a big April that season. Higher than average April's occurred in 67, 05, 06, and 09. That leaves us with 1958 and 1988. 1958 was pretty steady and ended the year with 42. 1958 also had a strong El Nino pattern end the prior year, but still maintained a weak El Nino through the year. This season we are coming out of a neutral period to weak La Nina. So they don't really match up there. So that takes us to 1988. Probably the biggest feature of 1988 is the widespread heat wave and drought that summer for much of the country. 1988 ended up being the year with the fewest tornadoes in Oklahoma since 1950. May 1988 was pretty similar to 2014 as well with well below normal rainfall at 3 inches below normal. Thunder was reported only 5 days that year...we are at 3 this month so far.

So diving into things more and more it looks like this could very well end up closer to 1988 than any other year. Great for people that don't like extreme weather, but bad when it comes to the drought and those that enjoy our natural attractions.

What is the main issue? You can find many people debating this online. My opinion and it is simple is just moisture. We have seen a winter season that lasted for ever up north. Some areas are still getting frost north of the Ohio River. We have had an unusual number of cold fronts that have just plowed very far south and scoured out the Gulf. Moisture return after these fronts have been pathetic at best. Add into that that if you cut OK in half at I-35, nearly all of the western half is running 75% or less of their average "greenness" of the vegetation. Many areas in SW and NW OK are only at 55% of what should be greened up by now. That lack of green vegetation can have a HUGE impact on the availability of moisture at the surface for any storms to work with. I learned many years ago never to discount the impact evapotranspiration (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evapotranspiration) can have on storm development. This is why we see moisture just mix out completely in front of drylines and dewpoint spreads just soar. This time of the year we should be talking mid 60s and low 70s for dewpoints with spreads (air temp vs. dewpoint) no greater than 15-20 degrees in most cases. Our last real shot of severe weather we had dewpoints in the mid 60s but as soon as heating kicked in we ended up with dews in the upper 50s and temps in the low 90s. Storms can thrive in that environment which also means we don't get the rain and moisture we normally do.

Sorry for the book, just want to get some thoughts down. End of the day, no one wants severe weather over populated areas but for us - it is a necessary evil to get our moisture to survive the year. Now might be a good time to start calling in favors for Mother Nature to give us a good tropical system off the Gulf this summer. We are going to need it.

[BG918]

Without plentiful moisture in May and June I wonder how many record high to temps Oklahoma will experience this summer when high pressure dominates the central Plains. I do hope we get a good rain with this system next weekend, and that the zonal shift doesn't evolve straight into a high pressure ridge so early in the summer.

You mention the tropics, what is the forecast calling for this season? We have had a few quiet years minus Sandy, especially in Florida. A couple weak Gulf tropical systems moving our way would be nice.

[silvergrove]

I know it's been pretty quiet around here but what is happening in this image? Off the coast of Washington, the rotating thing.

[Anonymous.]

Starting to finally see some consistency in GFS.

Moving rain/storm chances in on Memorial day and keeps them coming in the following days. So perhaps Memorial day weekend won't be a total washout. Looking more like the washout begins after the weekend. Looks like this pattern is trying to bleed into June also. So finally, maybe some moisture on tap for us to finish off May!

[venture]

I've been ignoring the GFS until it started to look more like the Euro - finally seeing some of that. So with that, outlook time! This is based on the 12Z GFS as the 12Z Euro isn't in yet. If there are any major differences with that run I'll post about them later.

Through Thursday Evening - Warm/Hot, Dry, dusty, smokey, and more of the same. Some storms possible out in the PH but that's it.

Friday - Slight chance of isolated to scattered storms over W OK. Instability won't really be anything to write home about, very modest with CAPE generally 1500 j/kg or less over W OK. Central OK looks capped and stable. Dewpoints might get into the low 60s out west, but moisture will mix out over Central OK. Nothing really significant, maybe a few hail stones and some gusty winds.

Saturday - Early morning rain, drying out for the daytime, and more rain and storms moving in after dark until Midnight (cont on Sunday). Moisture return still looks meager at best. Instability will be meager so not expecting much on the severe side. Could see some good rain amounts over SW OK approaching a half inch.

Sunday - Overnight showers/storms continue, mainly well west of I-35. Things will reduce some getting into the late morning/early afternoon before new convection fires by mid afternoon over W OK. Moisture looks somewhat better out W on Sunday, but C OK mixes out again by mid afternoon. Severe weather is possible mainly west of US 183 with the best chances south of I-40.

Monday - Overnight convection moves over Central OK and starts to fade through the day, but some isolated/scattered showers might remain around. Dryline finally gets out of NM and W TX and moves west of I-29 in the E TX PH. Moisture return looks the best thus far on this day, but we know how "wonderful" models have done with moisture this year. Hopefully we some rain around early it won't mix out right away. GFS has projected mid to up 60s over much of OK and low 70s of SE OK. I'll believe it when I see it, but a hope and a prayer is about all we have now. Severe weather appears probable if conditions develop as forecast with the main risk area including much of W and C OK, with the best chances from I-40 and south. GFS wants to form up a complex after dark bringing heavy rain to much of NC, C, and SW OK.

Tuesday - Air mass recovery behind the complex from Monday is going to be key. Looks like moisture will stay in place but instability will be down. Could still see some storms fire mainly SW OK and along the Red River. Main severe weather risk would be SW OK.

Wednesday - A lot of good moisture around, could be on going showers and storms through the day with more development late. Best instability is SW OK again, but dryline does retreat pretty far west so getting much off of that doesn't look promising.

Thursday - Much of the same like Wednesday. Best instability though would cover much of the state. GFS gives us widespread 70 degree dews (stop laughing) over much of the start from SW to NC OK and back to the east. Dryline is way off into NM this day, so don't expect much outside of the typical air mass storms like Tues & Weds.

Friday 30th - Dryline punches through into the E TX PH again. GFS keeps deep 70 degree dews over the state (seriously, laughing...stop it) and instability will be high over much of C and W OK. This could be a decent severe weather day if this forecast actually happens and doesn't vanish in the next run.

Saturday 31st - Dryline retreats W into the western PH by early Saturday. Dryline marches east again like Friday, good instability ahead of it in W OK, moisture isn't as good into the mid 60s. The killer? A very significant layer of dry air about 9,000 ft up seems to kill anything from forming. Where the cap is weakest we might still see some development and right now the most likely place for that is NC OK.

Sunday June 1st - Decent low level moisture, but temp/dp spreads look high - again. Dryline bulges almost into WC OK. Best instability W OK, especially NW. Best chance for storm development appears to be north of I-40 out west.

Monday June 2nd - Much the same as the first, but instability shifts east slightly over more of the state. Storm chances possible SW OK by mid afternoon expanding NE through the late evening hours. Severe possible of course.

Monday June 3rd - Shift a bit further south for this day. Best instability for the southern 2/3rds of the state. Chance of storms later.

All in all, this looks more like a typical spring forecast - well...at least as good as we are going to get this year I think. Definitely some hope here but as we know, the GFS isn't one to bet on all that often. I had mentioned a few months back that it wouldn't shock me if our Spring storm season got pushed back about a month, and this would line up with that thinking. The biggest fear right now though is how soon with the ridge of death build in and shut down the storms for the Summer. Then hope shifts to NW flow developing to bring us the MCS activity from CO/KS.

[bchris02]

Looking over years past, its not unusual to have a busy June after a quiet May. 2005 saw 10 tornadoes in June after none in May. Local meteorologists seem to be talking rain for this weekend but not really sounding the severe alarm. How confident are you we will actually see decent rainfall this time?

[Anonymous.]

GFS still slams western 2/3 of OK and TX panhandle, beginning early next week.

[venture]

GFS still slams western 2/3 of OK and TX panhandle, beginning early next week.

Euro is in agreement for the most part but is a bit faster ejecting the cut off low.

[venture]

Outlook for the next few days...

Thursday - Slight Risk of severe weather far NW OK and the PH. Large hail is main threat.

Friday - Modest instability but some storms will form through the afternoon. Most likely area right now is north of I-40 and west of I-35.

Saturday - Modest instability as well but storms firing off the dryline by early evening in W OK.

Sunday - Moderate instability mainly over W OK and the panhandles. Storms fire by mid afternoon and will move east slowly overnight into early Monday morning. Severe risk should diminish through the overnight hours as they approach central OK.

Monday - Moderate instability over much of Oklahoma, especially south of I-40. Storms form by mid afternoon. Storms should form a complex and move E and SE through the night. Probably will see a hail threat early and go to a wind threat as things progress.

Tuesday - Instability will build in behind the complex from Monday mainly over SE OK. Not expecting much though as overnight complex could have the atmosphere pretty well worked over.

Wednesday - Showers/storms continue over SE OK, instability does build back in over Central OK though so could see a shower or storm around here.

Thursday - Chance of storms mainly E of I-35.

Friday - Chance of storms C & E OK. Moderate instability, so some could be severe.

Saturday - Chance of storms C OK, low instability.

[venture]

Slight Risk continues today for Extreme NW OK and the PH. Nothing major outside of a few hailers and wind expected.