General Weather Discussion - May 2014

[Anonymous.]

TX panhandle all lit up. This should keep evolving as cool front blasts through. Don't know if storms will make OKC late tonight or not.

Front may blast through and actually kill the storms.

[Klop]

Thanks to you guys for keeping us updated. Most appreciated.

[Anonymous.]

Storms still going. Looks like they could make OKC afterall.

Looks to be non-severe.

[Achilleslastand]

Storms still going. Looks like they could make OKC afterall.

Looks to be non-severe.

Sweet!
Heres to another 2-3 inches of rain for the metro.

Hopefully...........

[pw405]

Storms still going. Looks like they could make OKC afterall.

Looks to be non-severe.

Think so? They look like they've gone way too far north.

[venture]

HRRR not giving us much hope. Fears realized from what I mentioned Sunday. We simply just didn't have enough storm development to give us a shot. Front will be coming through in the next couple of hours but looks like will only have a very thin line of showers with it. Heaviest rain will be in SE OK.

NAM has a chance of rain late Tuesday/early Wednesday, but GFS has us dry until at least the 22nd.

[Anonymous.]

And their gone.

Sigh.

[JayhawkTransplant]

Downpouring at 23rd and May.

[Anonymous.]

More storms and rain developing behind the front into SW OK towards NW TX. Hopefully this expands north and east.

[BG918]

Quick downpour in Norman. Looks like areas to the east will get some decent rain. SE Oklahoma in a Flash Flood Watch.

Edit: looks like another line forming to the SW. They need the rain really bad so great to see.

[Anonymous.]

Yep. Good slow moving line of storms spreading in SW OK. This should continue to increase in coverage. Hopefully it will give a decent soaking to most of SW into WC OK.

[venture]

Looks like the Western line is holding its own right now. Central OK is drying out as the eastern line right behind the cold front is starting to increase.

[Anonymous.]

Looks like the western line (back edge) is slowly driftin north on it's way to the east and dying off (may miss C OK completely). Eastern half of OK looks to get a good solid rain from this... very slow moving, training showers/storms.

Classic OK weather. Continue the drought in the west, and add more water to the east.

[soonerguru]

Looks like the rain to our west is petering out. Still have a slight chance tonight.

[venture]

The way too long range storm outlook...since there is pretty much nothing for over a week to talk about at this point...

After this current trough moves off to the east we'll be in a NW flow for the next few days and then a more zonal flow by the weekend. Next upper low digs into the SW USA around the 20th/21st and opens up some and loses its punch. It does still have some upper energy coming in around the 25th & 26th, but not very impressive at this point. Then a zonal mess after that with a split jet of sorts - one branch through the Northern 48 and the other through Mexico. This will all change, but it's going to be a boring 10 days so need to put some hope out there.

Friday May 23rd - Mdt/High instability SW to NC OK. Chance of storms NW OK.

Saturday May 24th - Mdt/High instability Central/East OK. Strong cap, no storms.

Sunday May 25th - Mdt/High instability most of OK except NW. Chances of storms W 1/2 of OK.

Monday May 26th - High instability C 1/3rd of OK into NE OK. Chance of storms SW, C, and NE OK.

Tuesday May 27th - Mdt/High instability SE OK. Chance of storms E OK.

[Charlie40]

Yawn

[Anonymous.]

As if we need more proof that moisture breeds moisture:

Rainfall from this past storm system:


Rainfall from last 120 days:


These maps will change and become outdated as time progresses, so this post won't make sense in a couple days.

[bchris02]

It seems to me that last year the NW flow pattern gave Oklahoma some pretty good overnight rains. Any chance of that happening this year?

[Anonymous.]

All depends on the pattern, last year we got lucky and had one of the wettest years on record in C OK. But remember this was only because of the consistent storms we had hitting C OK. This was a very localized event and all of the Western half of OK saw none of it. So overall we had no effect on the long-term drought and instead we had a short-term relief in C OK.

There are places in SW OK that have had only 11 inches of the moisture in the last YEAR. Let me repeat that, only 11 inches in 365 days. That is incredibly dry. And this spans off into NW TX and most of the TX panhandle. Until these areas see a pattern shift and get rain consistently, it will only hurt the moisture chances over the entire area. This is why we have been seeing such odd severe weather chances this Spring. Western OK is bonedry, when we get gulf moisture streaming in, the deep/surface moisture mixes out and we never get that extra push to keep storms going and become self-sustaining.

Last year C OK had the 2nd wettest year on record. But this year shows how localized and random last year was. Here is C OK's stats so far this year (2014) - and this includes the already random occurrence of those storms that trained directly over OKC and dropped 2-3 inches of rain last week.

For general C OK:

4.38" so far this year.

-7.80" below average.

36% of normal.

1st driest ever on record.

4.57" (1956) is the driest to this point on record.

24.61" (1990) is the wettest to this point on record.

[Achilleslastand]

This is depressing........
2014 currently fourth driest spring for Oklahoma City



2014 currently fourth driest spring for Oklahoma City | Oklahoma City - OKC - KOCO.com

Hopefully we can get a batch of rainfall like we did on that Friday night at the end of last May as well as a wet June.
I am not holding my breath though.

[venture]

To toss out some other maps...



One thing I would point to o that one. The heavy rain for Oklahoma County was obviously spurred by the severe flooding after the May 31st storm, but also look at last week with the heavy rain that came in. Then look at Norman...13 inches less than OKC. So while some in the heavy rain areas may feel like there isn't a problem, go 20 miles and it is a different story. We need to keep that in mind. Widespread rainfall is something we've really lacked. A lot of that is thanks to a very isolated storm season and lack of much tropical moisture able to stick around for any beneficial period of time.

Tagging on to my OKC - Norman comparison, here are consecutive days with out at least a quarter inch of rain.

[Anonymous.]

Dang, 36 days since a quarter inch of rain!

This is why it is better to look at general areas instead of specific city data. While the KOCO link posted above tailors to OKC viewers, it would be nice if they painted the picture for all of the OKC metro, or even further. Such as the data I posted above which takes into account the average of the central data sites as opposed to one specific site @ Will Rogers World Airport.

[silvergrove]

Found this amusing.

[Of Sound Mind]

That is awesome!

[venture]

This won't stick around...but hope...