General Weather Discussion - May 2014

[OKCisOK4me]

Well alrighty then. Screw you Mother Nature.


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[Achilleslastand]

All the local stations have our rain chances at around 90% tomorrow. Has this changed?

[venture]

All the local stations have our rain chances at around 90% tomorrow. Has this changed?

Well a 10 second shower would verify that forecast.

15Z RAP has made a big change and now ignites the whole dryline by 6PM.

[venture]

I just tweeted this since I finally went outside. Today is the first day this year, that I can remember, that we've had that really good smelling muggy Spring day. Not that it means anything, but the Gulf is open for a change.

[venture]

HRRR trending to introduce more development - albeit isolated - along the dryline in W OK and W North TX.

[venture]

CU development now well underway along the dryline in SW KS into TX. Decent CU field in W OK as well mixed in with the gravity waves.

[yukong]

Well, I'm on a layover at the Denver airport headed home from Maui....it's snowing like crazy here. They are under a winter storm warning. 5-10 inches predicted. Crazy.

[venture]

16Z HRRR is committing more to developing supercells in W OK. Left is sim radar reflectivity and right is updraft helicity (rotation in other words).

[Anonymous.]

Yup. You could swim out there.

The timing and placement may fire storms W OK this even. They die before reaching Central.

Then tomorrow they refire just east of I-35. So C 1/3 of OK gets skipped.

[OKCisOK4me]

Yeah, we're not getting anything in the OKC area. I can feel it.


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[venture]

Yup. You could swim out there.

The timing and placement may fire storms W OK this even. They die before reaching Central.

Then tomorrow they refire just east of I-35. So C 1/3 of OK gets skipped.

Right now I'm thinking impacts on Central OK is going to really depend on how many get going and just how intense and established they can become.

[bchris02]

It's a little more humid today, but nowhere near how it felt on the days of the outbreaks last year.

[venture]

SW KS is going now. Visible Sat showing a couple towers starting to go.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0564
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0146 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...ERN OK/TX PANHANDLES...FAR NW OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 111846Z - 112045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE EXTENDING
FROM W-CNTRL KS SWWD INTO THE NE TX PANHANDLE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS
THE MAIN SVR THREATS. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL KS. A WW IS LIKELY BEFORE 21Z TO COVER
THESE THREATS.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A LOW W OF HYS. A
DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD FROM THIS LOW TO DDC THEN SWWD TOWARDS AMA. A
COLD FRONT ALSO EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW...STRETCHING SWWD TO GUY IN
THE OK PANHANDLE AND THEN WWD INTO FAR NE NM. ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF
THE DRYLINE HAS QUICKLY WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AMIDST
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND MODERATE TO STRONG SLY WINDS.

18Z DDC SOUNDING SHOWS A DEEPLY MIXING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LITTLE
CINH REMAINING. MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD HAS STRENGTHENED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE 12Z WHILE BACKING SLIGHTLY. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAINED
STEEP /GREATER THAN 8 DEG C PER KM/.

LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEWD TOWARDS THE CNTRL
PLAINS WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE LIFT.
THIS LARGE SCALE LIFT COUPLED WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARIES AND STRONG HEATING/MIXING WILL RESULT IN CONVECTIVE
INITIATION...LIKELY NEAR 21Z.

STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM 40-45 KT SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS. CONVECTIVE MODE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN. IF STORMS ARE
ABLE TO REMAIN DISCRETE AND MOVE OFF THE BOUNDARY INTO THE WARM
SECTOR ACROSS CNTRL KS INCREASED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND A GRADUALLY
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...MOST GUIDANCE INDICATES NUMEROUS STORMS WITH INTERACTING
OUTFLOWS AND THE EWD PROGRESSING DRYLINE/COLD FRONT FAVORING UPSCALE
GROWTH WITH A RESULTANT THREATS OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

[venture]

Tornado Watch up for NW OK

TORNADO WATCH 143 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

KSC007-009-025-033-047-051-053-057-083-095-097-105-113-119-145-
151-155-159-165-167-169-185-120300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0143.140511T1940Z-140512T0300Z/

KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER BARTON CLARK
COMANCHE EDWARDS ELLIS
ELLSWORTH FORD HODGEMAN
KINGMAN KIOWA LINCOLN
MCPHERSON MEADE PAWNEE
PRATT RENO RICE
RUSH RUSSELL SALINE
STAFFORD


OKC007-045-059-151-153-120300-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0143.140511T1940Z-140512T0300Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BEAVER ELLIS HARPER
WOODS WOODWARD

[Achilleslastand]

If and/when this makes it to the metro will it be after 10pm?

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 143
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
240 PM CDT SUN MAY 11 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INCLUDING THE EASTERN PANHANDLE
NORTHEAST TEXAS PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2.5
INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF SALINA
KANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GAGE OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 141...WW 142...

DISCUSSION...RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE DRYLINE
WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. A
CONTINUED STRENGTHENING OF DEEP-LAYER FLOW FIELDS INTO THIS EVENING
WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL
INITIALLY. THE THREAT FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES MAY INCREASE THIS
EVENING WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN DISCRETE OWING TO INCREASING
AMOUNTS OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24030.


...MEAD


Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (20%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (30%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	High (70%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (60%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (90%)

[venture]

If and/when this makes it to the metro will it be after 10pm?

A lot depends on if SW OK pops as well.

[Achilleslastand]

a lot depends on if sw ok pops as well.

ty!

[venture]

Quick analysis...



Dryline is pushing east at a pretty good click. Area outlined for the southern section of the dryline is where we need to watch for new development next 2-3 hours.

[OKCisOK4me]

TTFU!


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[Anonymous.]

Whole dryline is about to go in SE part of TX panhandle. Dryline bulging east and CU field boiling up like crazy.

Possibly look for TOR watch for SW OK soon.

EDIT: forgot sentence part

[venture]

Western OK moisture just mixed out a bunch today. We'll see how this works out...

[Anonymous.]

Looks like we will have to wait for the cold front once again.

[venture]

Looks like we will have to wait for the cold front once again.

Which even then the forecasts aren't extremely favorable for any decent rainfall. This drought is killing us.