General Weather Discussion - May 2014

[bchris02]

The bar is pretty low this year so it won't take much to be one of the more "significant" weather days.

Last year things really didn't get going until the May 18-20th outbreak but the last two weeks of May were among the most violent in state history. From the language I've been hearing I am guess Sunday is expected to be that kind of day?

[venture]

Last year things really didn't get going until the May 18-20th outbreak but the last two weeks of May were among the most violent in state history. From the language I've been hearing I am guess Sunday is expected to be that kind of day?

I don't think ANYONE has been comparing Sunday to any of the big days last year. And most violent in state history? It was barely Top 10 in tornado product last year. Everything is relative though. 2012 we had the busiest April tornado wise on record, but it was confined to mostly NW OK. For them it was a busy year, for us in Central OK it was mostly ho-hum.

At some point it is almost to where you are wanting to hear it is going to be a major outbreak to feed your paranoia. We are well below the levels of last year right now, at some point things average out. No sense in worrying about where a day is going to rank or compare. By outbreak standards, if there is even such a standard, May 20th had 15 tornadoes...for the entire state. That's not really a lot. It is just notable because of the EF5 that hit a populated area. Do you hear people talk about the October 1998 outbreak anymore? Not really. That had 26 tornadoes.

Sunday is a bit elevated in concern for severe weather. Immediately trying to draw comparisons to events of the past though is just foolish.

[Anonymous.]

Legit gulf moisture is just basking over the entire main body of TX. 70+ DPs galore.

If this rich stuff can stream up here tomorrow and tomorrow night, we could have a good shot at tornadoes (Sunday). I do have some doubts, especially with the little swing by system tomorrow that will be moving up the stalled boundary playing games on our Sunday setup.


bchris, nearly all of your posts in weather threads are asking us to confirm hype scenarios. Just take the information and learn about it, comparisons and hype is for the local mets. If hype without much science is what you want, you are in the wrong thread. The most hype you will get here is bread and milk warnings in the winter.

[soonerguru]

Venture,

I'll be in Norman Saturday afternoon. Are we talking about garden variety t-storms or the possibility of something more significant?

[Anonymous.]

Venture,

I'll be in Norman Saturday afternoon. Are we talking about garden variety t-storms or the possibility of something more significant?

Hail, wind, and obviously heavy rain. Tornado is low, but not zero like any severe storm. Norman is probably far enough south to not warrant any panic, just keep radar app on tap to check out in the afternoon.

[bchris02]

I thought at 63 tornadoes, May 2013 was the third most violent, behind 2010 with 91 tornadoes and 1999 with 90?

But yeah this year has been quiet so far. I realize that doesn't mean anything. We could have a single outbreak drop 50+ tornadoes and then after that be finished for the season. Or this season could end like 2002 did - without a major outbreak.

[venture]

I thought at 63 tornadoes, May 2013 was the third most violent, behind 2010 with 91 tornadoes and 1999 with 90?

But yeah this year has been quiet so far. I realize that doesn't mean anything. We could have a single outbreak drop 50+ tornadoes and then after that be finished for the season. Or this season could end like 2002 did - without a major outbreak.

nm

[LocoAko]

Last year things really didn't get going until the May 18-20th outbreak but the last two weeks of May were among the most violent in state history. From the language I've been hearing I am guess Sunday is expected to be that kind of day?

And what language is that? Are you honestly making this up for entertainment value?

[ou48A]

At some point it is almost to where you are wanting to hear it is going to be a major outbreak to feed your paranoia.

LOL

[ou48A]

Does this look like central OK's most significant setup so far yet this year? What's interesting is the local meteorologists aren't fully in agreement on it. KFOR just recently jumped on the hype train but prior to the noon weather cast they didn't even forecast this to be that significant.

As humans its human nature to be the most scared of the things we least understand.

Knowledge is power and it can provide a degree of sanity.
It takes a life time of accumulating what we know, but what knowledge we seek and what we do with what we learn is up to the individual.
But its why some folks are rich and others poor.... in all ways of life.
Never let your emotions and fears control your lifes destiny!

[Dubya61]

Channel 5's Brad Sowder has a post on Channel 5's website saying Significant Severe Weather expected for Sunday.

KFOR TV CH 4 OKC indicates that there is a moderate risk on Sunday in north central OK, central OK and south central OK..
They indicated that storms should approach the OKC area by about 7 pm and they will include the risk of tornadoes.

That's easy for them to say. They have a very large broadcasting area.

[PennyQuilts]

If we are set to get a crazy mad tornado day, or the models are leaning in that direction, I am completely confident that our forum guys will bring that to our attention. And even if things unexpectedly but suddenly went to hell in a handbasket, I am still confident that if we check here (or anywhere else) they'll make sure we know it is tornado risky day.

I think the only concern I have in terms of tornadoes would be if a small one slipped through in a rain wrapped system that spotters didn't see and it didn't make much of a mark on radar/software. But even if it did, chances are that wouldn't be life threatening if I was staying inside and away from the storm.

I suspect most people who get hurt by tornadoes either aren't staying alert to dangerous weather or, if they are, they don't take prudent steps to protect themselves. You can't stop property damage other than putting up your car and maybe lawn furniture. Shut drapes and curtains against wind and hail and call it good. But beyond that, all you really need to concern yourself with is protecting your life. Most of us are very small targets.

[Charlie40]

That's easy for them to say. They have a very large broadcasting area.

This includes the OKC Metro and surrounding areas!!

[bchris02]

Mike Morgan's latest 7-day shows only a 10% chance for Sunday. This is interesting how some people are predicting the storm of doom and others, even those who usually hype, aren't concerned.

[soonerguru]

The Weather Service just released a youtube video suggesting that there will be a chance for tornadoes in Central Oklahoma between 7 p.m. and Midnight Sunday.

[ou48A]

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman · 3h
Sunday is Mother's Day. Every mom needs a weather radio! Great gift idea. But buy flowers, too. pic.twitter.com/UmEMnNHNGk

[ou48A]

[zookeeper]

Hail, wind, and obviously heavy rain. Tornado is low, but not zero like any severe storm. Norman is probably far enough south to not warrant any panic, just keep radar app on tap to check out in the afternoon.

Hi Anon, Soonerguru was asking about Saturday. Your response above I think, was really about Sunday? They keep saying the chance tomorrow (Saturday) is very low.

Thank you guys, as always.

[venture]

Looking at the 18Z models...

Tomorrow looks like a crap shoot. We might get one or two supercells that pop from Central into Northern OK. Nothing widespread.

Sunday of course is the hyped day. We'll probably see parts of IA/MO/KS/NE get upgraded in the Day 2 outlook that comes out after midnight today. Maybe...Maybe...Oklahoma as well. Here is a look at the Supercell Composite numbers for Sunday. GFS is first and NAM is second. Note NAM is about 3 hours later in peaking with this specific index.

[venture]

4km NAM from the 18Z run showing max updraft helicity in storms around 10PM Sunday. NAM is running slower than what other forecasts are suggesting, so keep that in mind.

[venture]

12Z Euro model run...3hr precip forecast ending 7PM (so storms between 4 and 7pm) Saturday...



Euro forecast for Sunday at 7PM...

[jn1780]

Mike Morgan's latest 7-day shows only a 10% chance for Sunday. This is interesting how some people are predicting the storm of doom and others, even those who usually hype, aren't concerned.

And tomorrow him or one of his people will go to the other extreme and say there is 100% chance of severe weather Sunday.

Also, who exactly is saying "Storm of doom"? You really need to learn how to put these forecasts in perspective especially when some chasers are getting a little bit more exciting then they normally do because its been an extremely boring season for them so far.

[venture]

So the new 00Z NAM for tomorrow doesn't come across as very concerning for tomorrow. Granted I haven't been a big fan of it these last few events as it has generally been garbage. Still feel we get one or two to pop tomorrow that could be troublesome for someone.

For Sunday, NAM wants a late show - because having storms in the daylight is taboo now. A couple snap shots from the model tonight. DO NOT READ A LOT INTO THIS...bchris.

These are technically 1AM Monday...

[PennyQuilts]

Well... clearly there is a bullseye right on us. OMG!!!!!!

[ou48A]

Hype?

NWS Norman ‏@NWSNorman · 15m
Severe weather still appears likely Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night, especially along and west of I-35 #okwx #texomawx