General Weather Discussion - May 2014

[ou48A]

Rick Smith @ounwcm

1215am - the storms look much scarier on radar than they really are. Flooding biggest threat, especially to motorists. Stay calm.

[zookeeper]

Mike Morgan is the only one that seems determined to get a tornado out of that storm.

[ou48A]

Mike Morgan says the radar shows gate to gate.
Atomized rain
Power flashes reported

[zookeeper]

Damon and David are focused on the hail and flooding. Damon says strong straight winds. Mike Morgan keeps talking about a weak tornado and Reed is telling people to take shelter. (???????)

Edit a minute - 3 minutes later later: They've said "tornado" over and over and over on Channel 4 for about 20 minutes. It was "possible" "possible" now they are convinced they've got a tornado.

David Payne: NO tornado - "nothing like that."

[ou48A]

Trees down on SW 92 and Penn

[zookeeper]

Channel 4 has made a sudden change to extremely strong straight winds. Somebody put the hammer down.
How funny. Now the tornado is #3 on Mike's list of things that could have caused the limbs down.

His hype, along with Reed Timmer, is unbelievable. They would like to trademark the word 'Tornado'

[John1744]

Channel 4 has made a sudden change to extremely strong straight winds. Somebody put the hammer down.

Yep, they made it very clear very quickly that there is no tornado threat anymore whatsoever. The guy is ridiculous.

Edit: And now he's going back and explaining why he was saying it was a tornado.

[ljbab728]

You guys are just silly. The storm obviously changed very quickly. I found their reports to be spot on and very accurate. When the storm changed they gave immediate reports on that.

[ljbab728]

You guys are just silly. The storm obviously changed very quickly. I found their reports to be spot on and very accurate. When the storm changed they gave immediate reports on that on a second by second basis.

[zookeeper]

Yep, they made it very clear very quickly that there is no tornado threat anymore whatsoever. The guy is ridiculous.

John, I can't believe after what happened last year they would even begin to tread that way. All the way to Reed telling people to "take shelter now."

Now....he's trying to explain how he's in the minority on his opinions, but he thinks he's right. Wow.

[pw405]

You guys are just silly. The storm obviously changed very quickly. I found their reports to be spot on and very accurate. When the storm changed they gave immediate reports on that.

Ya, I agree - it certainly looked scary for a few minutes. A few facebook friends are reporting debris and downed limbs, so there was certainly reason for concern. I think overall Morgan was pretty accurate.

[ljbab728]

Ya, I agree - it certainly looked scary for a few minutes. A few facebook friends are reporting debris and downed limbs, so there was certainly reason for concern. I think overall Morgan was pretty accurate.

Yes, it seems to be in fashion to bash Mike Morgan no matter how accurate he may be. And he just said that sirens are being sounded in the Tinker area.

[zookeeper]

You guys are just silly. The storm obviously changed very quickly. I found their reports to be spot on and very accurate. When the storm changed they gave immediate reports on that on a second by second basis.

The hype of "tornado" was hardly spot-on. The other two were stressing how this is not a tornado event. Damon even said, "It's just not that type of situation." David never veered from no tornado threat. The National Weather Service didn't think he was spot-on either, if there was a tornado in any part of the metro area - they would have issued a tornado warning.

[ljbab728]

The hype of "tornado" was hardly spot-on. The other two were stressing how this is not a tornado event. Damon even said, "It's just not that type of situation." David never veered from no tornado threat. The National Weather Service didn't think he was spot-on either, if there was a tornado in any part of the metro area - they would have issued a tornado warning.

You're totally wrong about that. When a very weak tornado happens very quickly the NWS doesn't have time to issue a warning and may not even issue one for a weak tornado. Mike said it was a category 0 at most and I think there will probably be good evidence to support that. Again, some people just think it fashionable to bash Mike.

You might remember that there was no tornado warning at all for the recent tornado which caused so much damage in NW Oklahoma.

[venture]

High wind warning for collapsing storms.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

OKZ023-027-038-039-044-045-TXZ086-089-090-080900-
/O.NEW.KOUN.HW.W.0002.140508T0549Z-140508T0900Z/
CADDO-GRADY-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-COTTON-JEFFERSON-WICHITA-ARCHER-
CLAY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANADARKO...CHICKASHA...LAWTON...
DUNCAN...WALTERS...WAURIKA...WICHITA FALLS...ARCHER CITY...
HOLLIDAY...LAKESIDE CITY...HENRIETTA
1249 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS
MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING.

* TIMING: THROUGH 4 AM.

* WINDS: GUSTS 60 TO 80 MPH FROM THE SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST.

* IMPACTS: EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BLOW LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS AROUND...MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO KEEP YOUR VEHICLE ON THE ROAD AND CREATE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST.

[venture]

You're totally wrong about that. When a very weak tornado happens very quickly the NWS doesn't have time to issue a warning and may not even issue one for a weak tornado. Mike said it was a category 0 at most and I think there will probably be good evidence to support that. Again, some people just think it fashionable to bash Mike.

You might remember that there was no tornado warning at all for the recent tornado which caused so much damage in NW Oklahoma.

Was their a tornado? I doubt it. It comes down to actually looking at the velocity data at the time. Shear was very one sided. Having 40-50 kts going one direction but only 10-20 kits the other isn't anything that is going to make me jump up and down with a sparkle tie on. Following the storm through the metro it was pretty evident the high velocity data was mainly for strong winds blowing out of the storms. There were a couple times tonight where I felt we could get a quick spin up, but in most cases the outflow winds would be causing more damage tonight.

As far as sirens at Tinker...

Rick Smith @ounwcm

Tinker AFB sounded their sirens, NOT Midwest City or Del City. They have different criteria for their sirens. #okwx

[Bunty]

One thing for sure, much of Oklahoma City didn't get left out from the rain. 1.5 to 2.5"+ or the state's lion's share. Heat island effect? More on the way, if it hasn't dissipated upon arrival.

Leave it up to Oklahoma City to often not get bypassed by the most significant part of weather systems as they pass through Oklahoma:

[bchris02]

So what are we looking like for today?

In addition, the SPC now has a 30% risk area out for Monday. It's starting to look more and more like that may be a significant day. Channel 5 is hyping Sunday evening also.

[bradh]

Haven't heard as much about today as we originally did. I'm going to be in Hennessey this afternoon, and I vaguely remember someone posting about threats along 81 today.

[SoonerDave]

So what are we looking like for today?

In addition, the SPC now has a 30% risk area out for Monday. It's starting to look more and more like that may be a significant day. Channel 5 is hyping Sunday evening also.

I think the key for today will be the (in)ability of the atmosphere to recover from the overnight storms combined with just how much heating can take place during the day. If the cloud deck remnants from last night persist, the heating will be limited, thus limiting the fuel for subsequent storm development.

As for Monday, the SPC forecast that I read (at least the parts I think I understand ) suggest that the severe storms they're expecting are likely going to have rotation but also be high-based, which leads to their anticipation of potentially large hail and a relatively lower tornado threat. They talk about more surface moisture being present if the storms migrate farther into western OK, which necessarily increases the tornado risk, but I think at this point they're just saying their best model data right now supports the prediction of storms with hail.

Venture will surely come in and correct all of where I'm wrong, but I don't think I'm too far off. The new meteorology word I learned last night was ISODROMOTHERM. I love meteorology if for no other reason than it has FANTASTIC buzzwords. I mean, how can you not go a little crazy over an ISODROMOTHERM (which is just a line connecting areas with the same dewpoints)?? It sounds like something the Empire would hide behind the Death Star and unleash on the Jedi's

Edit: Wouldn't Day 4 in that outlook actually be Sunday, not Monday? Today is always Day 1, isn't it? Put another way, I don't see any "Day 0" outlooks in their forecasts

[Mississippi Blues]

So what are we looking like for today?

I look pretty good. I'm having a fabulous hair day.

[ou48A]

For today in eastern Oklahoma (including Tulsa) and western Arkansas

https://twitter.com/NWStulsa/status/...740928/photo/1

[OkieHornet]

all i know is that the drive back to edmond after the thunder game last night was one of the most intense drives i've ever had. hail, flooding, winds...

[Anonymous.]

Back edge of these clouds are coming into Canadian county now. If we get cleared out fully here by around 11am. Could be enough heating of the recently rained on ground that we become decently unstable.

Dryline/Cool front already advancing in far NW OK this morning, so the timing may be off today. I would say the further north you are, the better chance of storms this afternoon. Would love to get another solid line, the rain we get from these is our only hope this summer.


SPC has highlighted the Day 4-5 timeframe in their outlook. Right now, it does look significant.

[catch22]

The hype of "tornado" was hardly spot-on. The other two were stressing how this is not a tornado event. Damon even said, "It's just not that type of situation." David never veered from no tornado threat. The National Weather Service didn't think he was spot-on either, if there was a tornado in any part of the metro area - they would have issued a tornado warning.

I was actually driving on I-44 right at 89th when this was going on. (Basically right in the area he said a tornado possibly was) I can confirm the power flashes, and extremely strong wind. It was actually kind of scary -- glad he was on the radio, understood exactly what he was saying. I'm not a fan of his style at all, but in the moments I needed information I got exactly what I needed listening to his broadcast.

Based on evidence on the ground (power flashes in the same area), and evidence on the radar (the wind shear) -- he made the right call. Better safe than sorry. I rather him say there is the possibility of a tornado and there not be one, than him to completely dismiss it, and people be caught off guard even on an F-0.