General Weather Discussion - May 2014

[venture]

Live Chat @ Weather Spotlight | NWS Norman | Storm Prediction Center | Mesonet | West Texas Mesonet | NWS Norman Fire Weather Forecasts | OK Road Conditions

Current Conditions

Norman Warning Area Map Tulsa County Warning Area Map Blizzard Watch | Blizzard Warning | Winter Storm Watch | Winter Storm Warning | Ice Storm Warning | Red Flag Warning | Winter Weather Advisory | Wind Chill Advisory | Wind Chill Warning | Freezing Rain Advisory | Tornado Warning | Tornado Watch | Severe T-Storm Warning | Severe T-Storm Watch Other Color Meanings: Web-Based Watch/Warning/Advisory Map Colors - NOAA's National Weather Service

Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnight

Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma

Severe Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Outlook	Day 2 Outlook	Day 3 Outlook	Days 4 - 8 Outlook

Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time.

[venture]

Pretty much on tap with what we have been discussing for a week now...

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT WED APR 30 2014

VALID 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BRIEFLY UNDERGO DEAMPLIFICATION WITH
INCREASINGLY ZONAL FLOW EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS SCENARIO COMBINED WITH DIMINISHED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY EAST OF
THE ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN A RELATIVELY BENIGN PATTERN FOR SEVERE
TSTMS THROUGH AT LEAST DAY 6/MONDAY.

EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT SEVERE TSTMS MAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
PROBABLE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
RETURN NORTHWARD ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THIS WILL BE AS THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN BEGINS TO AMPLIFY VIA WESTERN STATES TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH SPECULATIONS ARE THAT CURRENT MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE MAY BE A BIT TOO QUICK/EASTWARD PROGRESSIVE WITH THE
INITIAL WESTERN STATES TROUGH DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT SOME STRONGER TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS DAY
7/TUESDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY. SEVERE WEATHER
MAY INCREASE ACROSS BROADER PARTS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
UPPER MIDWEST INTO DAY 8/WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

..GUYER.. 04/30/2014

[mblackwell]

Here we go. May is upon us.

[bchris02]

Is it just me venture or does the weather pattern this year seem very similar to 2011? After an unusually cold winter, we are seeing cold snaps taking us near freezing very late in the year, mid 90s at the beginning of May, after a late April tornado outbreak in Dixie Alley. Not saying this is a similar year because every year is different, but in the long range models do you see things getting crazy like they did in May 2011?

[OKCisOK4me]

This winter was not unreasonably cold. As a matter of fact, I'd say it was mild.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bunty]

This winter was not unreasonably cold. As a matter of fact, I'd say it was mild.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

It was a cold winter, all right, with frequent below normal temps. Seldom did the temp get much above normal, so hardly every any thunderstorms, but at least very few lows set all time records and it never dropped below zero.

[Of Sound Mind]

Courtesy NWS:

[OKCisOK4me]

It was a cold winter, all right, with frequent below normal temps. Seldom did the temp get much above normal, so hardly every any thunderstorms, but at least very few lows set all time records and it never dropped below zero.

Maybe it was a cold winter then but it sure as hell didn't seem like it as far as I'm concerned. I didn't have to wear my heavy coat but maybe 5 times this winter so TO ME it was a mild winter.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[bchris02]

All three local news stations are starting to hype severe weather in the middle of next week, likely Wednesday or Thursday.

[Achilleslastand]

All three local news stations are starting to hype severe weather in the middle of next week, likely Wednesday or Thursday.

Getting that hype train rolling early.....gotta keep those ratings up.

[Plutonic Panda]

It was a cold winter, all right, with frequent below normal temps. Seldom did the temp get much above normal, so hardly every any thunderstorms, but at least very few lows set all time records and it never dropped below zero.

I agree with OKCisOK4me, it seemed rather mild here. I know is was colder up north and we had a few cold snaps, but for the most part, it seemed pretty mild.

[Dessert Fox]

Did anybody else see the retarded new KOCO "5+5" 10 day forcast? I guess trying to compete with 9's 9 day

[Klop]

OKCisOK4me and Pluto, Obviously you do not work outside for a living. It was a very COLD winter.

[bchris02]

Did anybody else see the retarded new KOCO "5+5" 10 day forcast? I guess trying to compete with 9's 9 day

Anything beyond a 5-day forecast isn't very accurate anyways so I think they should stick to that.

[venture]

All three local news stations are starting to hype severe weather in the middle of next week, likely Wednesday or Thursday.

And we've been talking about it for how long now? LOL

[bchris02]

And we've been talking about it for how long now? LOL

Has anything changed with recent runs? Is this still looking like a primarily western Oklahoma outbreak?

A quiet April in Oklahoma isn't all that uncommon, but we are likely to have at least one or two significant outbreaks in central/western Oklahoma between now and June 1st.

[Dessert Fox]

Quoting the NWS

"THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ENTER THE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES APPEAR LIMITED. WHERE
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL
ALSO BE PRESENT."

[Urbanized]

Mind if I ask what's up with the handle and Rommel avatar? And yes, I do understand that he was not your typical Nazi.

[Uncle Slayton]

Mind if I ask what's up with the handle and Rommel avatar? And yes, I do understand that he was not your typical Nazi.

I think (s)he covered that in another thread. Without putting words in his fingers, if I had to venture a guess, it might be 1) a visual vehicle to sell the pun in his user name or 2) a brilliant but flawed character in history in whom (s)he is interested.

If it turns out to be a female, the pun would be even more...delicious, if you'll pardon the pun-within-a-pun. (Or to resurrect Freud, sometimes an avatar is just an avatar)

[Bunty]

I agree with OKCisOK4me, it seemed rather mild here. I know is was colder up north and we had a few cold snaps, but for the most part, it seemed pretty mild.

But even though you and others were not able to sense it, the past winter without a doubt was definitely colder than average. How much colder than average? Statewide the temps were 3.1 degrees below normal and 19th coolest. Source: http://climate.ok.gov/index.php/clim...onthly_summary

Also below average for temps in Oklahoma City and Tulsa ever since October to March 7: Oklahoma Weather Lab: Special Story: Below Average...Since October!

[Bunty]

OKCisOK4me and Pluto, Obviously you do not work outside for a living. It was a very COLD winter.

I don't work outdoors, and one unpleasant sign I knew it was being a cold winter was looking at my gas bill to see I was certainly using more gas than winter 2013.

[OKCisOK4me]

Oooooooo...19th coldest. We're not talking like opposite of one of the recently most hottest summers that was in the Top 5, right?

Sorry, I'm not going to count the "19th coldest winter" as a record breaker, lol.

Before you know it it's gonna be like March Madness with 68 winters!

For the mark, I work pretty darn close to outside (a big metal building) and my heating bill (electric) was nothing compared to recent winters in the last 5-7 years.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LocoAko]

Not a record breaker (who even said that?), but it was absolutely colder than normal. A bit windier than normal, too.

Edited to add: Didn't see Bunty's post above.

[OKCisOK4me]

My words. Nonetheless regardless of recorded data, it was a mild winter IMHO.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Anonymous.]

Looking ahead.

Today and tomorrow are beautiful. Tomorrow is a tad warm, but still pleasant.

Sunday into next week... We are going to be blasted with STRONG southern winds with mid 90s for highs. Very summer-like.


Thursday into Friday looks like rain chances go up. Models trying to find out where, but someone is going to get some heavy rain/storms. QPF spreading 3-4 inches over a good part of SC, and SE OK as of right now.