General Weather Discussion - April 2014

[bchris02]

So is it true we may be looking at an arctic front and a freeze next week?

[venture]

So is it true we may be looking at an arctic front and a freeze next week?

I wouldn't really call it arctic. We might see a few nights in the 30s about 11-12 days out.

[Plutonic Panda]

Pleeeaaaase don't get below freezing.. that would suck

[venture]

I haven't planted anything outside yet for a reason.

[Plutonic Panda]

Raining now on I-240 and Shields

[Plutonic Panda]

I haven't planted anything outside yet for a reason.

Stop it! lol.... I have all of my tropical plants outside and have a few things planted including my Banana trees, but haven't planted any begonias yet. I do this every year man, I need to just set a date when I put them out

[bchris02]

My rule was always to hold off on planting until May 1st. Winter can easily make nasty comebacks any time in April.

[ou48A]

Tax day is always the date I use for planting most things.

[venture]

Here is a first look of the new chat page. It has more stuff on it and I haven't tested it on mobile yet. I might end up create a mobile only page that gets rid of the video stream and twitter feed on the left.

http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html

[PennyQuilts]

What's the ustream? It looks good. I take it there will be comments on the right, tweets on the left with - what? - above that?

[venture]

What's the ustream? It looks good. I take it there will be comments on the right, tweets on the left with - what? - above that?

Streaming video for when I do radar coverage or other maps and such. Thinking of also setting up an outdoors webcam for a sky view.

[venture]

Last few hail storms moving through and then they should start to dissipate.

[venture]

Storm Outlook...

Thursday 4/10
Fairly unstable atmosphere in an area just along/southeast of I-44 with the highest area of instability in SC OK. CAPE values 1000-1500 j/kg with other favorable parameters in place. However, strong cap will be in place and CIN isn't forecast to burn off. Could see 1 sole storm get going, but not expecting much of anything. Models don't pop and precip, but just putting this out there as a "just in case" situation.

Friday 4/11
Moderately unstable atmosphere returns for much of Oklahoma with the highest area from the Lake Eufaula area down to SC OK. Decent cap and CIN will still be in place, so it seems like another day where convection will be suppressed and nothing will be able to get going.

Saturday 4/12
Very unstable atmosphere in place over NW OK to SW OK. This reminds me a lot of last week where we had a lot of instability, but also a strong cap. Parameters are all in place for severe weather, however so is a very strong cap. CIN stays in place most of the day so don't expect much of anything at this point. We are still a few days out, so if we start to see signs that the cap won't hold then a risk area would be warranted.

Sunday 4/13
Moderately unstable in the early afternoon ahead of a passing front in Central OK, generally along I-44. Not to do the broken record thing, but strong cap in place so any activity that does form along the boundary will be isolated in nature. Best location for precip right now looks to be SC OK. Main threat will be straight line winds and hail.

Looking further out there are a few more chances coming in. Keep in mind this will change from run to run, but we might see this solution jump in and out as we get closer.

Monday 4/21 - Chance of storms Central third of Oklahoma.
Tuesday 4/22 - Chance of storms Central/East mainly, maybe parts of W OK except the TX border counties.
Wednesday 4/23 - Chance of storms east of I-35.

[venture]

An addition to the discussion above, the 00Z ECMWF is a bit more aggressive for Sunday. Quick look at the CAPE map with the surface boundaries...



This for 7PM with peak instability in Central to SC OK ahead of the dryline and cold front. Triple point looks like it will be close to Central OK on this solution. Euro has convection well ahead of these boundaries in Eastern OK but also a squall line filling in on the cold front and additional colds on the dryline.

Still several days to go - but we'll have to see which solution remains the most consistent.

[bchris02]

So any update on the severe outlook for Sunday?

[SOONER8693]

So any update on the severe outlook for Sunday?

Mike Morgasmo and the Ch 4 weather fear mongers are pumping a severe outbreak for Sunday. He's been harping on this now for a couple of days and is beginning to ramp it up now, still 4 days out. Apparently the Ch 4 weather fear mongers just feel the need to keep everyone scared about, the approaching snowmageddon, extreme fire danger, severe storm outbreaks, etc. It must make them feel better about themselves. ??????

[Easy180]

Getting home from New Orleans on Sunday afternoon so definitely interested to see how the forecast shapes up over the next few days.

[venture]

GFS is slowing slightly on the 18Z run, but will wait for the 00Z run tonight to do another update. Euro has continued to show storms in the state on Sunday. The 12Z run this afternoon has the front coming through by 5PM, so this show will be fairly early. It does have a very unstable environment for storms, so we'll just have to wait and see.

I'm not about to start shouting widespread severe weather that Morgan is now.

[bchris02]

David Payne's forecast isn't that scary sounding. He is showing a slight risk with the main threats being wind and hail, with only isolated tornadoes.

[venture]

David Payne's forecast isn't that scary sounding. He is showing a slight risk with the main threats being wind and hail, with only isolated tornadoes.

Not against you at all BChris (okay? , but I got a chuckled when Rick Smith (NWS Norman) put out a tweet last go around saying "aren't all tornadoes isolated?"

I thought it was pretty clever.

[ou48A]

Mike Morgan (4)said at 6 that we can expect wide spreed severe weather on Sunday.
If he said anything about tornadoes I missed it?
But CH 9 at noon said there was a low risk of tornado’s but also indicated this storm is a long way out and things can change.

Sounds like this might be more of a hail and high wind event, but if a stray tornado just happens to hit your house, its not an isolated event to you!

[SoonerDave]

Not against you at all BChris (okay? , but I got a chuckled when Rick Smith (NWS Norman) put out a tweet last go around saying "aren't all tornadoes isolated?"

I thought it was pretty clever.

BINGO!!!! Was thinking the same thing!!! Love it.

[bchris02]

Not against you at all BChris (okay? , but I got a chuckled when Rick Smith (NWS Norman) put out a tweet last go around saying "aren't all tornadoes isolated?"

I thought it was pretty clever.

The meteorologists on May 20th and on May 31st said the storm was likely to produce multiple violent, long track tornadoes. To me, that is much more alarming than when they say "isolated" tornadoes.

So how serious is Sunday looking right now?

[venture]

The meteorologists on May 20th and on May 31st said the storm was likely to produce multiple violent, long track tornadoes. To me, that is much more alarming than when they say "isolated" tornadoes.

So how serious is Sunday looking right now?

But they are still isolated, they aren't holding hands.

For Sunday... I'll look at doing an update after the 00Z Euro is in, which will be a couple more hours. I have a feeling it still won't help any if the 00Z NAM and GFS runs are any indication. Just compare these two on the position of the surface low at 7AM Sunday. Also if you look at the wind barbs you can see the differences in timing with the cold front arrival in NW OK. GFS has the northerly winds (frontal passage) into NW OK by morning, NAM is holding it well to the north still. The 12Z NAM run tomorrow morning will go through Sunday afternoon/early evening which will cover the main time frame for all severe weather. So we can get a better idea then.

12Z Sunday per NAM


12Z Sunday per GFS

[venture]

00Z Euro is pretty similar to the NAM model. At 7AM on Sunday surface low is in SW KS to the SE of Dodge City. Frontal passage in OKC is going to be between 4PM and 7PM. Instability looks pretty high ahead of the front with CAPE values at or above 2500 j/kg. Storm initiation is showing up along the cold from roughly along/west of I-35 to OKC and then along the dryline through southern OK. It appears more isolated south of I-40.

4PM Boundaries and Precip


7PM Boundaries and Precip