General Weather Discussion - April 2014

[LocoAko]

15Z HRRR run for 6PM this evening...

Not streak of 2-5km Updraft Helicity E of OKC the following hour. Models seem to be struggling with the moisture ahead of the dryline and doing even worse with the dryness behind it.

[SoonerDave]

Is it giving you any specific error? I'm not sure if they changed anything in the code since we last used it during the winter storms.

No, just shows the login window, and I put in a name and email....then after a time of contemplating its navel, it goes back to the chat window, but none of the messages ever appear. When I go to veirfy my screen name in the options window, it just spins forever.

[Dennis Heaton]

Just checked out the Chat site. Kinda reminded me of the ole IRC and mIRC days.

[SoonerDave]

No, just shows the login window, and I put in a name and email....then after a time of contemplating its navel, it goes back to the chat window, but none of the messages ever appear. When I go to veirfy my screen name in the options window, it just spins forever.

Venture, suspect its a firewall issue on my side. I can see other chats, just can't participate.

[venture]

Venture, suspect its a firewall issue on my side. I can see other chats, just can't participate.

Alright...I won't try to start screwing with things then. LOL

[venture]

Tornado Watch will be issued this afternoon.



MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT WED APR 02 2014

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS/FAR SOUTHWEST
MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021919Z - 022115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...MONITORING DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS FOR AN ANTICIPATED
DEVELOPMENT/INCREASE IN SEVERE TSTMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING PARTS OF NORTHERN/WESTERN OK AND SOUTHEAST KS.
MORE CERTAIN/IMMINENT SIGNS OF SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WILL PROMPT A WATCH ISSUANCE /LIKELY BEFORE 21Z/ FOR
RISKS FOR LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...AS OF 19Z...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPES ROUGHLY W/SW TO
E/NE ACROSS NORTHERN OK...WITH PART OF THIS BOUNDARY SHIFTING
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OK/SOUTHEAST KS. AN
ADJACENT DRY LINE EXTENDS SOUTH/SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS FAR WESTERN OK.
OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO...A CU FIELD HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF DEEPENING
NEAR THE FRONT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS FAR NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK
AND FAR SOUTHEAST KS.

ESPECIALLY WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE LOWER
80S F...CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
STEADILY ABATE...WITH MLCAPE ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF
2000-3500 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS. THE
SCENARIO OF WEAKENING INHIBITION IS WELL SUPPORTED BY MODIFICATIONS
TO A RECENT 18Z LAMONT OK OBSERVED SOUNDING.

WHILE LARGE-SCALE INFLUENCES ARE SUBTLE...ADDITIONAL
HEATING/SUFFICIENT MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST
ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE-BASED TSTMS BY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AIDED BY 40-55 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL
WINDS AND AFOREMENTIONED AMPLE INSTABILITY...VEERING/STRENGTHENING
WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL. A TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST AS WELL...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
NORTHERN OK/EXTREME SOUTHERN KS IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TRIPLE
POINT/WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE TOWARD
EARLY EVENING GIVEN AN EXPECTED STRENGTHENING/BACKING OF 1-2 KM AGL
WINDS.

..GUYER/HART.. 04/02/2014

[venture]

Per NWS Norman

Just got the dreaded NIMNAT message, announcing a conference call with SPC to discuss tornado watch. #okwx

[venture]

The first tornado watch will not include the metro area.

[Anonymous.]

Probably won't see a tornado watch for the dryline action unless a CU field gets established. Which right now, is not happening.

[venture]

Okay well...it does include Kingfisher County which I think is still technically the Metro area.

[venture]

Probably won't see a tornado watch for the dryline action unless a CU field gets established. Which right now, is not happening.

Today always felt as a two watch box day. One for the warm front and another for the dryline - if needed.

[venture]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 46
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS. STRONG
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS THIS EVENING MAY ALSO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (20%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

[coov23]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 46
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
245 PM CDT WED APR 2 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST KANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 245 PM
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF JOPLIN
MISSOURI TO 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ALVA OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHEAST KS. STRONG
INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS THIS EVENING MAY ALSO PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26030.

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Low (20%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Low (10%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	High (80%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

So, I'm guessing the odds of okc seeing any storms has diminished quite a bit?

[venture]

So, I'm guessing the odds of okc seeing any storms has diminished quite a bit?

It was never high. This is a two area scenario. I just posted this in the chat...



Area to the north is covered by the watch now to handle development along the front. The secondary area (purple) is for the dryline development, but that has always been in question.

[CuatrodeMayo]

The single-digit dewpoint temps and RH numbers behind the dryline are interesting.

[silvergrove]

It was never high. This is a two area scenario. I just posted this in the chat...



Area to the north is covered by the watch now to handle development along the front. The secondary area (purple) is for the dryline development, but that has always been in question.

All quiet on the western front.

[NikonNurse]

The two closest that I know of are at Baptist Hospital and at Peen Square. Neither is very close to Quail, though...

I tell you right now the one at Baptist is full...with employees......

[venture]

NW OK is starting to go finally...

[John1744]

This probably gets asked a lot in fact I probably have asked before but is there a defacto radar program to use for monitoring weather? Getting sick of using News9's ESP Radar on their site. Could be PC or iOS.

[woodyrr]

You might evaluate RadarScope for Mac and iOS. GRLevel3 for PC.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[OKCMallen]

NW OK is starting to go finally...

NOT WAKITA!

[venture]

NW OK development now in KS (the area NE of Enid is the wind farm). Additional cells trying west northwest of Tulsa.

[venture]

Some new development now on the dryline.

[venture]

Tornado watch is being shaved off some on the south side...

#OUN cancels Tornado Watch for Blaine, Custer, Dewey, Kingfisher [OK] till 10:00 PM CDTIEM :: Valid Time Extent Code (VTEC) App

[Spartan]

Well the weathervangelists must be bummed about how this fizzled out.. Now ok with regularly scheduled programming (and lives)