General Weather Discussion - March 2014

[venture]

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Oklahoma Mesonet Current Conditions Red - Air Temp, Green - Dewpoint, Barbs - Wind Speed/Direction, Gray - Gusts, Blue - Precip since Midnight

Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma

Severe Weather Outlooks

Day 1 Outlook	Day 2 Outlook	Day 3 Outlook	Days 4 - 8 Outlook

Snowfall Forecast Models

GEM Snowfall	12Z/0Z NAM Snowfall	WRF Snowfall	12Z / 0Z GFS Snowfall

Freezing Rain Forecast Models

GEM Freezing Rain	12Z/0Z NAM Freezing Rain	12Z / 0Z GFS Freezing Rain

Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time.

[Anonymous.]

NAM completely shredding this storm. Gives some decent wrap around snow in NW OK.

I honestly have no idea what this storm will do still.

[Bunty]

ADVISORY COVERS THE ENTIRE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO:

Winter Weather Advisory Winter Weather Advisory
Updated: Sat Mar-01-14 02:59am CST
Effective: Sat Mar-01-14 02:59am CST
Expires: Sun Mar-02-14 09:00pm CST

Severity: Minor
Urgency: Expected
Certainty: Likely

Status: Actual
Type: Alert
Category: Met
Areas affected: Alfalfa; Atoka; Beckham; Blaine; Bryan; Caddo; Canadian; Carter; Cleveland; Coal; Comanche; Cotton; Custer; Dewey; Ellis; Garfield; Garvin; Grady; Grant; Harper; Hughes; Jefferson; Johnston; Kay; Kingfisher; Kiowa; Lincoln; Logan; Love; Major; Marshall; McClain; Murray; Noble; Oklahoma; Payne; Pontotoc; Pottawatomie; Roger Mills; Seminole; Stephens; Was hita; Woods; Woodward

Instructions: Be careful if you have to travel. Even small amounts of ice and snow can make roads and sidewalks slick and dangerous.

Message summary: ...winter weather advisory in effect from 6 pm this evening to 9 pm cst sunday...
The national weather service in norman has issued a winter weather advisory for a mix of freezing rain... Sleet and snow...which is in effect from 6 pm this evening to 9 pm cst sunday.
* timing: areas of light freezing rain are expected to develop late today and this evening across northern oklahoma and then develop south late tonight and sunday morning. Across central and northern oklahoma a transition to sleet is expected during the day on sunday then snow before ending sunday evening.
* main impact: mainly light accumulations of freezing rain...

Sleet and snow are expected across much of oklahoma and western north texas. However... A few locations could see as much as a tenth of an inch of ice. In addition... Snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches will be possible across far northern oklahoma. This wintry precipitation will likely result in slick and hazardous driving conditions across the area.
* other impacts: along with the wintry precipitation... Gusty north winds will create wind chills below zero during the day on sunday.

[Easy180]

FWIW ground temps are in the mid 40's

[Dennis Heaton]

Not sure if I heard this right on News9 just a few minutes ago...Detroit has had 68 days straight of below freezing temps?????

[bradh]

Watch, this will be the storm that dumps on us. I think everyone has tired head (including myself) from previous forecasts not panning out, that they're not really considering this one to be anything.

[SoonerDave]

So the Uncertainty Factor^tm for this storm suggests what....that we go out and buy just the bread, or just the milk?

[Dennis Heaton]

So the Uncertainty Factor^tm for this storm suggests what....that we go out and buy just the bread, or just the milk?

I just came back from McD's...stocked up on Sausage Biscuits!

[CuatrodeMayo]

I just came back from McD's...stocked up on Sausage Biscuits!

Hope you stocked up on toilet paper too.

[Dennis Heaton]

Hope you stocked up on toilet paper too.

Got a biggggggggggggggg stack of old Oklahoman newspapers. I'm good to go!

[SoonerDave]

I just came back from McD's...stocked up on Sausage Biscuits!

I think you just became my new best friend.

[venture]

I would like to thank the 12Z NAM for throwing another wrench into this deal.

Through 3PM tomorrow precip amounts look mostly light except for SE OK and W OK where some heavier amounts may be found. So looks like for us Freezing Drizzle or Light Frz Rain appear to be on tap. NAM then has a strong area of wrap around precip move over from the west, with an area of heavy precip from Norman back to Lawton - 0.35" to 0.5". The profile is very borderline on either a sleet/snow mix to all snow, as portrayed in this forecast sounding:



As we move into the evening, the precip should transition mostly to snow with some sleet mixture. The heavy band of precip will run from Shawnee up through the Tulsa area, where Tulsa should be mostly snow and could see 3-6" if this pans out. Things begin to shut down fast from midnight to 3AM.

Total precip looks moderate across the I-44 area ranging from 0.5 to 0.9" through that area...



NAM snowfall output can be seen in the article post of this thread but ranges from 3-5" west of I-35 then from 5 to 8" east of I-35 up along I-44. A sharp cut off south of Purcell where little snow will accumulate.

[venture]

12Z GFS maintains the story it has been telling for a few runs now. Mostly a light precip event with some wrap around snow mainly in NW and NC OK. So much for model agreement today.

[Anonymous.]

Yup. GFS sticking to snow KS and sleet ice E/NE OK.

NAM putting decent wrap around over W-C-NE OK. Bullseye near Tulsa with 5-6 inches.

[coov23]

So for us that don't follow this weather thing too much, what does it look like for us in the Quail Springs/Edmond area? How much snow/sleet/drizzle?

Thanks for doing this guys.

[venture]

So for us that don't follow this weather thing too much, what does it look like for us in the Quail Springs/Edmond area? How much snow/sleet/drizzle?

Thanks for doing this guys.

First welcome to the weather threads. I would refer you back a couple posts to the forecast maps and the general discussion therein. As those that have followed these threads over the years know that forecasting specific amounts for such a pinpoint area comes with a high degree of inaccuracy. People love asking the local TV weather guys about their street corner, but in reality everything just has be done with a broad stroke over an area. Only in situations where things appear to have a very tight gradient of precip will we (or at least I) start to get pretty nit picky.

So with that, there two model solutions are out there. I'll take a glance at Euro in a second. Take away from the amounts given, but don't expect it to get any more specific than that. It just isn't realistic.

[venture]

12Z Euro is pretty much in agreement with GFS. So hopefully we see some adjustments to the later runs today to get some better agreement.

[blangtang]

Apparently "Winter Storm Titan" has caused some flooding in Southern California!

[Bunty]

You can play around with the experimental NWS nation wide 6 hour forecast maps for 8 different forecast types at Welcome to Stillwater Weather - Home of Oklahoma State University - NWS MDL US Forecast Charts Mouse over a time to display the mapped chart.

[venture]

18z models starting to tend slightly with the NAM solution from earlier. We'll see what the next batch does.

[SoonerDave]

Venture - apologize for the stupid mode on my part - but I was trying to get timing on when this (might?) start to affect central OK, if at all?

[venture]

The heaviest looks to be after 3pm.

[SoonerDave]

The heaviest looks to be after 3pm.

So we're not even looking at anything of much consequence tonight? Good stuff.

[kelroy55]

Hate to admit it but it's still 70 here. Grilled out and ate on the patio. That's going to change tomorrow though.

[OKCisOK4me]

I don't care. I'm going out tonight.