2014 Oklahoma Commercial Aviation Discussion

[catch22]

Good add. Looks like I was correct on why AA wanted a third gate from United, and why the airport was rushing to move parking positions around so Gate 11 is usable. (which is postponed until warmer weather)

[venture]

Southwest will replace AirTran on the OKC-ATL route starting August 10th. This would be the end of the FL brand in OKC.

[catch22]

Do you know if they are trying to add capacity? Or is this just a result of the wind down of 717's?

[no1cub17]

I'd rather have PHX before PHL, but I guess WN already serves PHX non stop right?

Would think PHX would fall in priority sitting between DFW and LAX, but who knows...Want PHL for the int'l connectivity - although remains to be seen how the new AA rationalizes routes in the northeast...

[venture]

Do you know if they are trying to add capacity? Or is this just a result of the wind down of 717's?

Just a result of 717 fleet reductions.

Would think PHX would fall in priority sitting between DFW and LAX, but who knows...Want PHL for the int'l connectivity - although remains to be seen how the new AA rationalizes routes in the northeast...

PHX is up in the air on how things will proceed there. I say a low chance of it happening, but still a chance. PHL from all accounts will remain pretty much intact as the primary connection international hub in the NE. JFK will continue to focus on O&D pax.

[OUman]

So now the terminal will have two "officially" unassigned gates - 1 and 12. I think someone did say a while ago that the airport keeps Gate 1 for charters so any current airline that needs an additional gate, or a new entrant will get Gate 12 yes? That is of course, unless Gate 2 can be shared further.

Then again, Frontier only has 2-3 flights a day and Allegiant is at Gate 1 (according to the airport's website anyway). Still enough gate options unless passenger traffic rises as fast as say, Bergstrom in Austin, which I really doubt will happen anytime soon. And going by recent trends Frontier will probably not last much longer here or are things beginning to turn around for it in the Oklahoma City market?

[catch22]

Yes Gate 1 is the city's gate that they will not lease. It is the only gate capable of 747-400 / 777-300 etc. for diversions or charters that would happen to need access to the terminal building.

[no1cub17]

So now the terminal will have two "officially" unassigned gates - 1 and 12. I think someone did say a while ago that the airport keeps Gate 1 for charters so any current airline that needs an additional gate, or a new entrant will get Gate 12 yes? That is of course, unless Gate 2 can be shared further.

Then again, Frontier only has 2-3 flights a day and Allegiant is at Gate 1 (according to the airport's website anyway). Still enough gate options unless passenger traffic rises as fast as say, Bergstrom in Austin, which I really doubt will happen anytime soon. And going by recent trends Frontier will probably not last much longer here or are things beginning to turn around for it in the Oklahoma City market?

No kiddin - I've always wondered how they've done here. Their fares are almost always far, far lower than the legacies, which suggests they don't have enough loyalty here to charge competitively and have to undercut their competition - have no evidence to support this other than being an armchair CEO. I would say losing F9 would cause our fares to spike even higher, but I find they're reasonably high anyway.

[venture]

No kiddin - I've always wondered how they've done here. Their fares are almost always far, far lower than the legacies, which suggests they don't have enough loyalty here to charge competitively and have to undercut their competition - have no evidence to support this other than being an armchair CEO. I would say losing F9 would cause our fares to spike even higher, but I find they're reasonably high anyway.

The thing that needs to be kept in mind with Frontier is that they are now owned by the group that owned Spirit. They are making the transformation into a ULCC. Looking at what they are doing in other markets, it could be very possible that F9 actually expands into more O&D markets from OKC at some point. Also, they are always going to go for deep discount fares and recoup on the ancillary revenue. In the Q3 numbers for 2013, they were the lowest air fare carrier to Denver at $116.69 for an average fare. They also captured 24.1% of the market and ended 2013 with a 88.86% load factor. This was a 6 point gain over 2012 and a 12 point gain over 2011. It was actually their best results load factor wise...ever...in OKC. Revenue Passenger Miles (RPMs) also hit their highest point ever, topping their peak in 2008. This takes place when they also had fewer ASMs (Available Seat Miles) over last year and compared to that 2008 peak, it was roughly 3,000 less ASMs.

I really have to say that F9 has found the right mix for OKC to work and lines us up to potentially see some additional service at some point. F9 is following the NK model of single flights in O&D markets. This means they could be the ticket to get nonstop service to SEA, SAN, SAT, AUS, BNA, MSY, etc. I use to not think it would be possible but seeing them adding more of this type of flying to markets like STL, CLE, MDW, TTN, and ILG just shows they are changing.

[OUman]

Wow, so things are beginning to turn around for it then. Interesting analysis venture, an 88% load factor and building revenue are positive signs.

I recall Frontier did a big expansion of service at Colorado Springs Municipal a few years back (daily/double daily flights to 5 or 6 cities) with low fares, but that did not last too long. I think COS's proximity to DEN and the fact that the flights were unprofitable led it to cancelling all of that new service. But that was back when F9 was not doing too well, hopefully an OKC expansion (if it comes) will fare better. We also have a larger metro area and passenger traffic so that should help things too. Really though what we need in the long term is decently rising traffic numbers and for now, that's not showing up.

[LakeEffect]

Anyone catch how they finally pulled the Frontier plane out of the mud? Curious how they did it.

[rayhurst]

Sorry if I missed it somewhere up thread, but do we know which gate AA is going to use for the OKC-CLT flight? Will they use 4/6 in between existing flights or are they getting a 3rd gate?

[catch22]

Hasn't been made official, but United will drop Gate 8 and pick up Gate 11, American will take Gate 8.

[chrisok]

Schedules to/from CLT have been released. Service starts July 2.
Flight times are pretty convenient.

Charlotte, NC - Oklahoma City, OK 2858 11:25 AM 1:06 PM
Charlotte, NC - Oklahoma City, OK 2891 6:15 PM 7:58 PM
Oklahoma City, OK - Charlotte, NC 2858 1:40 PM 5:14 PM
Oklahoma City, OK - Charlotte, NC 2851 7:15 AM 10:49 AM (Service starts July 3)

[venture]

Wow, so things are beginning to turn around for it then. Interesting analysis venture, an 88% load factor and building revenue are positive signs.

I recall Frontier did a big expansion of service at Colorado Springs Municipal a few years back (daily/double daily flights to 5 or 6 cities) with low fares, but that did not last too long. I think COS's proximity to DEN and the fact that the flights were unprofitable led it to cancelling all of that new service. But that was back when F9 was not doing too well, hopefully an OKC expansion (if it comes) will fare better. We also have a larger metro area and passenger traffic so that should help things too. Really though what we need in the long term is decently rising traffic numbers and for now, that's not showing up.

The COS experiment was before they started the shift to the ULCC model. Now you see these newer focus cities do really well. I don't see OKC being as big as Trenton or Wilmington for F9, but there are possibilities there to add additional nonstop services. Now if the airport management is actually going to pursue this, that is another thing.

The one thing about the OKC market though is really the lack of much growth in the market. Pax numbers are staying pretty flat. If we look at overall numbers, 2013 the airport was down a half point in load factors - 76.68%. ASMs were down almost 100,000. If excess capacity is being pulled out of the market, the load factors should be going up - they aren't. At this point it is almost certain the market has plateaued and we are stuck here without any significant low fare injection.

[catch22]

So Allegiant doesn't display any flights out of OKC after August 12, yet other cities are bookable through Oct 28.

Are they done?

[venture]

So Allegiant doesn't display any flights out of OKC after August 12, yet other cities are bookable through Oct 28.

Are they done?

Not that I've heard. They are typically seasonal, so probably just ending the season in August.

[catch22]

Ah. I haven't heard either. Didn't know it was seasonal service. I saw one of their 319's in here last week, looks good.

[venture]

Ah. I haven't heard either. Didn't know it was seasonal service. I saw one of their 319's in here last week, looks good.

Nearly all of their service is seasonal except for a few. They take a break in the fall to handle mx and charters and get things going again before the holiday travel season starts. Some markets it is just October others it'll be August-Oct.

[catch22]

Gotcha. Thanks .

[rayhurst]

Schedules to/from CLT have been released. Service starts July 2.
Flight times are pretty convenient.

Charlotte, NC - Oklahoma City, OK 2858 11:25 AM 1:06 PM
Charlotte, NC - Oklahoma City, OK 2891 6:15 PM 7:58 PM
Oklahoma City, OK - Charlotte, NC 2858 1:40 PM 5:14 PM
Oklahoma City, OK - Charlotte, NC 2851 7:15 AM 10:49 AM (Service starts July 3)

That's a great start, but would love to see a flight in between for european connections that usually depart CLT in the 4-6pm time frame. Like I said, I'm not complaining, great add. Hopefully the routes are successful and we'll get additional frequencies. Then if they would just add PHL, NYC and MIA, we could connect anywhere AA flies in the world with 1 stop.

[catch22]

I don't think PHL will be too far behind this announcement.

In fact they announced PHL-MEM and a few other cities today, if I am not mistaken.

They seem very eager to start connecting some dots, and when some more merger efficiencies are realized, they will have some more slack in the fleet to connect more dots.

[venture]

DOT has started proceedings on the AIR-21 slot given up by Republic when they ceased MCI-DCA service. The slot was awarded temporarily to Southwest to continue MCI-DCA service. I'm hopeful we'll see US/AA bid for the slot and propose OKC-DCA again, like they did the last time (and WN did before that). I expect WN to apply to retain the slot for MCI-DCA service even though they just picked up 27 slot pairs and will likely increase frequency to MCI with 1 or 2 pairs.

[catch22]

I hope they do... Third time's a charm?

Not holding my breath.

[venture]

I don't think PHL will be too far behind this announcement.

In fact they announced PHL-MEM and a few other cities today, if I am not mistaken.

They seem very eager to start connecting some dots, and when some more merger efficiencies are realized, they will have some more slack in the fleet to connect more dots.

Charleston (WV), Lexington and Memphis were announced from PHL today. I fully expect we'll see a midday flight up to PHL at some point for the international bank. The thought is that PHL will retain a large offering of int'l destinations for the connecting crowd and leave JFK to O&D int'l.