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Thread: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

  1. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Here you go Anon



    MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0348 AM CST SUN FEB 02 2014


    AREAS AFFECTED...NW TX...OK


    CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION


    VALID 020948Z - 021345Z


    SUMMARY...HEAVY BANDS OF SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS NW TX
    AND DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS SW AND CNTRL OK OVER THE NEXT 2 TO 4 HOURS.
    A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE LOW
    ROLLING PLAINS NEWD INTO SCNTRL OK. PRECIPITATION SHOULD RANGE FROM
    0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS THE MCD AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.


    DISCUSSION...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF
    MID-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING FROM WEST TX NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
    SRN PLAINS. THE PRECIPITATION BANDS IN NORTHWEST TX ARE CURRENTLY
    LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A BOUNDARY AT 850 MB...AHEAD OF A
    LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND JUST SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL JET
    LOCATED ACROSS NRN OK AND THE NRN TX PANHANDLE. AS THE SHORTWAVE
    TROUGH OVER WEST TX CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE SRN PLAINS...THE
    HEAVIER BANDS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE ENEWD ACROSS NORTH TX AND
    SCNTRL OK EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOWFALL WITH
    RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR...SHOULD BE LOCATED IN A 50 STATUTE
    MILE WIDE ZONE CENTERED FROM CHILDRESS TX ENEWD TO THE SRN PART OF
    THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO.


    SOUTH OF THAT CORRIDOR FROM EAST OF LUBBOCK TX NEWD TO AROUND
    ARDMORE OK...SFC TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW FREEZING. IN SPITE
    OF THE SUB-FREEZING AIR AT THE SFC...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A
    WARM LAYER EXISTS BETWEEN 850 AND 700 MB. THE WARM LAYER SHOULD KEEP
    PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. PRECIPITATION
    RATES COULD BE IN THE 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES PER HOUR
    RANGE...ESPECIALLY WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION.


    ..BROYLES.. 02/02/2014




    ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...M AF...

  2. #77

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Nice. Okay I see snowflakes - now I can go to bed. lol

    I am going to mobile posting now. Let it snow!

  3. #78

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    It's finally flurrying here in NW OKC.

  4. #79

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    We had sleet here in Duncan earlier this morning. Now we are having a beautiful snowfall. It's fairly heavy. It's sticking and the ground is already covered.

  5. #80

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Just now started snowing down town.

  6. #81

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Heavy snow in NW Norman with about ½ inch acumulation so far.
    Visibility is about 1/8 of a mile.

  7. #82

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Streets and roads covered here just south of Piedmont and it's coming down pretty good.

  8. #83

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Best news of all is it is pure snow... I just took my snow shovel to a section of my driveway and zero ice underneath

  9. #84

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Wrapping up quickly now as storm system is moving east quickly.

  10. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Looks like we'll end up with about 4 inches here in SE Norman.

  11. #86

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Advisories being issued for the next storm. Most of KS and now NW OK under WSWatches.

  12. #87

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    Advisories being issued for the next storm. Most of KS and now NW OK under WSWatches.
    So will Central OK be out of this one?

  13. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by kbsooner View Post
    So will Central OK be out of this one?
    No. Should still get a couple inches of snow, just heavier to the NW. This will be pretty much the reverse of what we just saw. The south metro may get an inch or less and 2-3 inches NW metro.

  14. #89

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by kbsooner View Post
    So will Central OK be out of this one?
    Nope. Probably worse than today's winter weather. It's gonna be a rough, cold week here.

  15. #90

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by venture View Post
    No. Should still get a couple inches of snow, just heavier to the NW. This will be pretty much the reverse of what we just saw. The south metro may get an inch or less and 2-3 inches NW metro.
    Mother Nature balancing out the snow totals...Nicely done

  16. #91

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Any snow from Edmond to Guthrie today ?

  17. #92

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    so for the metro, are we talking about Tuesday, or Thurs/Fri for the next snow dump?

  18. #93

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Have they cancelled school yet?

    I heard there was a new rule that if its below 10°, school is off.

  19. #94

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Wow. This storm was very accurately predicted! That never happens!

  20. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by pahdz View Post
    so for the metro, are we talking about Tuesday, or Thurs/Fri for the next snow dump?
    One storm at a time. My comment is for Tuesday.

  21. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Quote Originally Posted by Bellaboo View Post
    Any snow from Edmond to Guthrie today ?
    About a 1/2" to an inch I'd say at my place.

  22. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    My neighborhood street on the NW side is quite clear and the sun is out.
    Still corrupting young minds

  23. #98

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    We will get 'clearer' data on the Tuesday storm in a couple hours. But right now NAM is dry slotting most of OK with this one, and dips barely 1-2 inches of snow on OKC. 5+ inches of snow as you head north of Stillwater and back towards Woodward. This is probably the furthest south it has shown the heavier totals so far.


    Now that last night's storm has fully moved away, models should have a good feel on this next one tonight and tomorrow morning.

  24. #99

    Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    I have heard some talk that the late week system could have lot of energy and could be very significant.....
    Any thoughts yet on it's general track....... Like Kansas or Texas?
    Thanks

  25. Default Re: General Weather Discussion - February 2014

    Long day today, so I'll try to hit on as much as I can before passing out.

    Storm #1 - This was Sunday's snow and is done.

    Storm #2 - Tuesday ending Midnight Wednesday Early
    Storm moves out of the NM/CO area and starts to kick off precip from KS down through TX on Tuesday morning. Appears there will be some axis near/north of the Metro area. The dryslot, which has been advertised for awhile, will come in just south of this area and punch NE with the storm. The NAM really want to pull some warm up up into Southern OK and suggests temps near 50 along the Red River. GFS suggests something similar, but is 10 degrees colder in its setup. If the GFS is handling temps right, we won't be above freezing for until the 11th or 12th of the month. Generally looking at 1" around Norman, 2-3" OKC, 3-4" Guthrie, and then 5-8" from there to the KS border per NAM. GFS is a bit higher on the south end and extends the 1" area deeper into Southern OK. GEM agrees with the GFS for the most part.

    Storm #3 - Thursday through Friday AM
    Moves in from the West, spreads snow early in the day over WC OK. By 6AM looking at 1-2" in most areas out there. Through 6PM looks like a general 1-2" over much of the state outside of NE and SE OK. Overnight Thursday through 6AM Friday a general swath of 1-2" for much of NW, NC, and NE OK. Metro impacts look like a general 2-4" right now.

    Storm #4 - Saturday
    Light snow moves into NW OK early, about an inch by 6AM. Heavy snow picks up over much of NW OK with an additional 5-8" up there. Generally 1-3" for NE to Central to SW OK. Still a long way out, so I'm not going to dwell on this too much.

    Storm #5? - Tuesday the 11th
    This is pretty fuzzy still, but maybe a storm forming up near up, but right now main impacts may be just east of us.

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