Ed Shadid Launches Formal Attack on MAPS 3 Conv Center in tandem with Mayoral Bid

[Tier2City]

I see. Just an anecdote he mentioned?

That would be ironic if he was trying to make a big thing out of criticizing the poor quality of CSL and Stone's research. But I guess his anecdotes are authoritative.

[coov23]

So, I have to ask this question for those that know better than I. How is Shadid going to be portrayed in OKC if all of his past, present and future endeavors/political/personal stuff continues to be proven as a farce? I'm a Mick guy. Just a citizen that's liked where he has the city headed. Can someone make a case to prove to me Shadid oils be better?

This is an honest question. If I'm going to vote, I want to hear both sides. Not propaganda.

[mkjeeves]

We started down this line when it was asked why ED picked the location, and I gave the stated reason ED gave for choosing the location as best I could quote from memory. Ed spoke for 10 or 15 minutes in generalities, HS talked for maybe 45 or 50 and the rest of the 1.5 hours total was questions to HS. Hotels were talked about in general and the recent report given to the council on hotels was talked about specifically. And more. It was a town hall meeting, not a dissertation defense. If you want to know the methodology and specifics of his research work it would probably be best to go study under him or read the "300 page book coming out that no one will read" and his published peer reviewed papers.

If you wanted to throw some hardball questions at him, you sure missed your opportunity. The floor was open.

[Tier2City]

We started down this line when it was asked why ED picked the location, and I gave the stated reason ED gave for choosing the location as best I could quote from memory. Ed spoke for 10 or 15 minutes in generalities, HS talked for maybe 45 or 50 and the rest of the 1.5 hours total was questions to HS. Hotels were talked about in general and the recent report given to the council on hotels was talked about specifically. And more. It was a town hall meeting, not a dissertation defense. If you want to know the methodology and specifics of his research work it would probably be best to go study under him or read the "300 page book coming out that no one will read" and his published peer reviewed papers.

If you wanted to throw some hardball questions at him, you sure missed your opportunity. The floor was open.

Just be careful you don't stray too far from the campaign talking points. The big theme was subjecting everything to close scrutiny. Wouldn't try to shut that down if I were you.

[betts]

Did anyone throw any hardball questions? Or was it a "feed on the plutocrats" frenzy? I don't have much patience for that. I'll read a couple of his papers. I've spent all the time talking to Ed I care to. It's like "50 First Dates". You think you've made a point and he's seen your POV and the next day it's like it never happened. Waste of time and energy.

[soonerguru]

Did anyone throw any hardball questions? Or was it a "feed on the plutocrats" frenzy? I don't have much patience for that. I'll read a couple of his papers. I've spent all the time talking to Ed I care to. It's like "50 First Dates". You think you've made a point and he's seen your POV and the next day it's like it never happened. Waste of time and energy.

Yep. The guy will whisper sweet nothings and lie to your face. Done with that / him.

[mkjeeves]

Just be careful you don't stray too far from the campaign talking points. The big theme was subjecting everything to close scrutiny. Wouldn't try to shut that down if I were you.

It was an open meeting advertised well in advance that included a floor open to questions. What part of it doesn't pass scrutiny?

[mkjeeves]

Yep. The guy will whisper sweet nothings and lie to your face. Done with that / him.

Assuming that's true, besides being a liar,

Cite: http://www.okctalk.com/general-civic...tml#post737485

what else do you and he have in common?

[betts]

I'm beginning to agree that Edgar and mkjeeves have been assigned a task by Ed's campaign: post annoying one line statements and start arguments so that all substantive discussions are buried and the lurkers don't bother to go back and read the earlier posts.

[betts]

Anybody want to help me do some research? I'm looking for scholarly articles by Heywood Sanders on convention center finances and or subsidized hotel finances and I can't find anything written since 2004. Is there anyone with mad research skills who wants to help me see what I can find?

[Midtowner]

If you have a kid in college,you can borrow his or her EbscoHost login.

[kevinpate]

Located a Brookings Institute article by him dated at 2005.
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/res...ventioncenters

Was amused by a quote attributed to him late last year when he was in a city out east.

Heywood Sanders admits that, "most people don't listen to me."

http://www.thedailypage.com/daily/article.php?article=41421

[betts]

If you have a kid in college,you can borrow his or her EbscoHost login.

That's what I did. I'll keep looking. I wanted to find a current article so I could have my son who's getting an MBA at the University of Chicago help me analyze it. He understands all this much better than I and he's being taught by some pretty good economists.

If your most recent article was published in 2005, then that would explain why you consider analysis from 2008 relevant. I'm going to look at that one to see when the data used was obtained, after I finish work today.

[CaptDave]

Anybody want to help me do some research? I'm looking for scholarly articles by Heywood Sanders on convention center finances and or subsidized hotel finances and I can't find anything written since 2004. Is there anyone with mad research skills who wants to help me see what I can find?

Nothing in the online library at my school after 1991 from Sanders...... but an entire section of the library of recent research on transportation that might be handy.

[betts]

So, I'm reading Spencer's article "Premises and Performances" written for the Economic Development Journal and published in 2005. Some of his data goes back as far as the 1980s. The article is not very technical, and reads more like it is written for people without a degree in economics or business. He references data as far back as the mid 1980s, but does comment on some events occurring as late as 2004. I'm not going to outline the entire article here, but will make a few comments.

First of all, the cities he references are not all very comparable. He lumps places like Myrtle Beach, Omaha and Branson, Missouri with cities like Boston, Chicago and Houston. He fails to acknowledge that these cities are not really competing for the same business. He provides some data without giving us information that allows us to compare it. For instance, he tells us how much convention center square footage has increased over the 15 years before the article was published, but not if the square footage is being used in a comparable manner or how much attendance has increased, if at all. He says "Some public hotels, including the Sacramento Grand Sheraton have succeeded to date in repaying their debt obligations and operating profitably." Some is how many? We're actually only given examples of three hotels that have definitively failed, in Myrtle Beach, Flint, Michigan and St. Louis. Overland Park, Kansas has had to subsidize theirs because profits were not what were anticipated. Personally, I have no interest in a convention in Flint or Overland Park. St. Louis would be OK and Myrtle Beach is not my favorite beach city but I might consider going there. Might.

A lot of the cities Spencer mentions failed to find a hotelier who would finance a hotel. He says this is due to perceived development risks. OK. I'm not really sure what this says except that those cities may be taking a risk in helping finance a hotel or it may mean that it is difficult to obtain financing, regardless of the magnitude of the risk.

He looks at the hotel adjacent to the McCormick Center in Chicago and says that it was not capable of providing a boost in events at the Center, although it was sold as being able to do so. However, he goes on to say, "At the same time, the Hyatt itself may be performing reasonably, supported by the overall hotel demand at McCormick Place and by other business and leisure travelers." OK.

He doesn't know what is going to happen in Denver when he writes this article and says "The apparent specificity and certainty of market studies convey a sense of predictability and limited risk". It is clear he thinks they exaggerate or are not honest with their analyses. He uses an analysis for the city of Denver as an example of one that concluded that the hotel could offer a "room rate of $179 by 2009." I cannot tell you what the room rate was in 2009, but I do know the hotel is financially viable and rooms currently start at $199. So, the consultants were correct in this instance. The hotel feasibility study in Houston had an occupancy prediction that was off by 2% and a predicted revenue per room that was off by $17, both to the negative. However, he goes on to say "While below the market study projections, the Hilton will be able to repay its debt obligations this year (The hotel was completed in 2004 and the article was published in 2005).

What he does say is that if convention business does not increase with the construction of a new convention center, the hotel competes with other hotels in town. That is definitely something to consider. If Oklahoma City's downtown has an excess of hotel rooms relative to demand, that could be a problem. We supposedly do not currently have an excess, although I'm not one to judge. If the hotel is built at a time when there is in fact a deficiency of rooms, then future developers need to be aware of how a convention center hotel will impact room occupancy in downtown.

This is obviously a simplistic summation. What I took away from the article that seems reasonable to me is this:

1. Don't assume you will get an increase in national conventions in your city if you build a convention center hotel. You may not even get an increase in regional conventions. This is where the convention center hotel consultants will attempt to blow smoke up your a**. Make sure their data is very specific to your region and believable.

2. Be careful of how your city is financially entangled in the hotel, especially if your city is overbuilt with hotel rooms.

3. Don't assume the hotel will be a financial windfall for the city - be happy if you break even and get a nice hotel. Profit is a bonus.

[betts]

I'll critique his convention center article later. The data is older and he makes even more generalizations. He's basically a sociologist in this one, with a little economics thrown in for good measure. And it's obvious what his political bias is as well. Which is all very amusing given Ed's tantrum about the CC hotel study. Mr. Spencer might even be right about what he says, but its so general and simplistic that it's almost pop "science". I'll be interested to see his presentation to see if its more current and specifically applicable to OKC.

[CaptDave]

Does anyone have any idea what he presented to the High Noon club yesterday? I saw an email stating he would be speaking to them. I would like to know how (and if) his message is altered for different audiences depending on how he is prepped. The two groups he was addressing are very different and may provide some insight.

[betts]

Sanders spoke to the High Noon Club?

[CaptDave]

Sanders spoke to the High Noon Club?

I am about 90% sure he did. I am trying to find the email or whatever it was I saw that said he was.

Edit: Found it! I am posting this before watching the video so I have no idea what he said. Hopefully there is an unbiased person that attended the Thursday event and will compare the two presentations for those of us who could not attend.

Twitter:
High Noon Club ‏@HighNoonClub Jan 21
Our guest this week is Dr. Heywood Sanders, professor, author, activist and the nation's preeminent authority on... http://fb.me/2ID4gs9QH

From Facebook:
High Noon Club Lack of transparency exists about risks of proposed convention center, says the nation's preeminent authority on convention centers. Professor, author, and activist Heywood Sanders spoke at the weekly meeting of the High Noon Club January 24, 2014. The Friday meetings are held at H&H Shooting sports, 400 S. Vermont, Oklahoma City. Sanders explained the significant risks associated with massive public subsidies, if not complete public ownership, of a $200 million convention center hotel which soon may be built in Oklahoma City. Mr. Sanders explains his recent statement that "OKC is highly unusual, if not unique, in the lack of transparency and the absence of public information on the proposed convention center and convention center hotel." A question and answer session followed. Video by Maggie Abel

[mkjeeves]

I'm beginning to agree that Edgar and mkjeeves have been assigned a task by Ed's campaign: post annoying one line statements and start arguments so that all substantive discussions are buried and the lurkers don't bother to go back and read the earlier posts.

Sweet. You just stepped up and earned a place to sit with Soongerguru at the libel (and hypocrisy) table too. Noted.

[mkjeeves]

1. Don't assume you will get an increase in national conventions in your city if you build a convention center hotel. You may not even get an increase in regional conventions. This is where the convention center hotel consultants will attempt to blow smoke up your a**. Make sure their data is very specific to your region and believable.

2. Be careful of how your city is financially entangled in the hotel, especially if your city is overbuilt with hotel rooms.

3. Don't assume the hotel will be a financial windfall for the city - be happy if you break even and get a nice hotel. Profit is a bonus.

Pretty much what HS (and Ed) said at the town hall. Same for convention center expansions. Forget what the Build-It-And-They-Will-Come consultants have to say. History has proven them to be wrong far more often than they are right and the convention market isn't headed in the direction to change that.

Build what we want to use, whatever that is. Not what they tell us to build.

[mkjeeves]

I am about 90% sure he did. I am trying to find the email or whatever it was I saw that said he was.

Edit: Found it! I am posting this before watching the video so I have no idea what he said. Hopefully there is an unbiased person that attended the Thursday event and will compare the two presentations for those of us who could not attend.

Twitter:
High Noon Club ‏@HighNoonClub Jan 21
Our guest this week is Dr. Heywood Sanders, professor, author, activist and the nation's preeminent authority on... http://fb.me/2ID4gs9QH

From Facebook:
High Noon Club Lack of transparency exists about risks of proposed convention center, says the nation's preeminent authority on convention centers. Professor, author, and activist Heywood Sanders spoke at the weekly meeting of the High Noon Club January 24, 2014. The Friday meetings are held at H&H Shooting sports, 400 S. Vermont, Oklahoma City. Sanders explained the significant risks associated with massive public subsidies, if not complete public ownership, of a $200 million convention center hotel which soon may be built in Oklahoma City. Mr. Sanders explains his recent statement that "OKC is highly unusual, if not unique, in the lack of transparency and the absence of public information on the proposed convention center and convention center hotel." A question and answer session followed. Video by Maggie Abel

I watched the first 10 minutes of the video speech and it's the same speech to that point. I have all day training again today like yesterday so the rest of it will have to wait. I do hope the video surfaces of the Town Hall. Ed didn't say much but he did say some things I haven't seen said or attributed to him I hope were captured.

[betts]

Sweet. You just stepped up and earned a place to sit with Soongerguru at the libel (and hypocrisy) table too. Noted.

It would only be hypocrisy if I had been asked by the Cornett campaign to make sure that anything posted by an Ed supporter was quickly buried on the thread with statements that are simplistic, off topic or illustrate me misunderstanding what was said. Since I am doing this of my own volition and am not trying to bury anything, its not hypocrisy. If me saying you appear to be working for Ed is libel, I will withdraw that statement. You are certainly not doing anything to help Mick's campaign. Let's leave it at that.

[GaryOKC6]

This guy has manipulated the facts to give the results that he is paid to come up with. There is plenty of information out there for anyone to find. Every major city puts out their own convention numbers and they don't jive with his. I also could not help noticing the "packed house" that was in attendance.



Consultant supports Oklahoma City convention hotel plan

Texas consultant Jeremy Stone said Tuesday his research shows the city can support a 735-room, $200 million conference hotel as part of development of a $250 million convention center south of the Myriad Gardens in downtown Oklahoma City.

By Steve Lackmeyer Modified: December 17, 2013 at 10:06 pm • Published: December 18, 2013

A consultant hired to analyze the feasibility of a convention hotel downtown was hit with a blistering verbal attack by councilman and mayoral candidate Ed Shadid, but otherwise found a receptive audience among the remainder of the city council Tuesday.

Texas consultant Jeremy Stone, hired by The Alliance for the Economic Development of Oklahoma City, told the council his research shows the city can support a 735-room, $200 million conference hotel as part of development of a $250 million convention center south of the Myriad Gardens.

Looking at forecast occupancy hovering at 64 percent the first few years of operation, Stone also provided estimates of revenues and expenses for such an operation — but with the caveat he was making no assumptions on the project's financing.

“It is a profitable property at the end of the day,” Stone said. “A property similar to this would make sense in this market.”

Stone noted his report was finished before Louisville, Ky.-based 21C Museum Hotels announced its plans to redevelop the historic Fred Jones assembly plant into a full service hotel. Stone also said hotels downtown are approaching a healthy 80 percent average occupancy.

“We would have expected full service to occur regardless of the convention center,” Stone said. “And as we found out with 21C, the market is showing full service development is appropriate.”

Stone said his research included interviews with hoteliers, officials with the Oklahoma City Convention and Visitors Bureau, and a review of studies commissioned by the Greater Oklahoma City Chamber before the 2009 MAPS 3 election that provided $250 million for the new convention center.

Shadid rebuked Stone as soon as he finished his presentation.

[betts]

Pretty much what HS (and Ed) said at the town hall. Same for convention center expansions. Forget what the Build-It-And-They-Will-Come consultants have to say. History has proven them to be wrong far more often than they are right and the convention market isn't headed in the direction to change that.

Build what we want to use, whatever that is. Not what they tell us to build.

But that's NOT what Ed is doing. We need a new convention center, I now believe. We have the money. And yet Ed is trying to stop that. Maybe the voters didn't vote because of "build it and they will come"? What if they've been in the Cox Center and they think its a bad building, with bad design? Ed, who didn't even vote, now thinks he's developed some magical telepathy that tells him why the voters voted the way they did? What if our convention center could be one of those Sanders slides under the table when he's summarizing. What if it could actually break even on maintenance or make a profit? We will have no debt service.

Ed is using made-up numbers and made-up drama to mislead. MAPS 3 did not include money for a CC hotel. He's leading people to believe that if we build a new convention center, we will borrow hundreds of millions of dollars. He's telling people that's without precedence in MAPS. That's true, because you can't do it. The resolution has no provision for borrowing money. He's leading people to assume a CC hotel would plunge us into debt and bankruptcy and yet cities like Sacramento, Denver and Houston have actually turned a profit. There is no CC hotel proposal before the Council. He's using his usual lies and innuendo to not only create drama, but to actually try and reverse the democratic process.