oops, nm, wrong thread
oops, nm, wrong thread
Could it be that all the enthusiasm and optimism shown by some on this site is not market reality? Before spending $100s of millions, even speculative developers want real market data to support the risk...and if they don't, their financial institutions do. Given the sobering announcement on the SC site (dedicated tower vs. speculative space), and the inability to put together a large office development at this site, it makes me think the demand still isn't quite there. Doesn't mean it won't be, but it may yet be too far off to justify the kind of dream developments some on here insist should happen now.
This is exactly what I was trying to say.
I wouldn't call 6+ years of sitting on a property just being "a little slow" and I wouldn't call 14 stories vs 30-40 just "a little" shorter than expected. What we are seeing is reality in OKC vs the dreams discussed here every day by OKCTalk members. The reality is OKC is seeing slow, steady job growth and the population is following. The developments we are seeing reflect that. The growth will need to kick it up a notch if we are to see the major, dream developments many here would like to see. That's very possible in the future but it's not there yet and nothing is set in stone.
Or the demand is there, but no bank will lend that much money on speculation yet.
So his dreams for a 30 story tower, just aren't able to happen. And he has $4 million tied up in land, and building a 16 story structure with a tenant lined up, is a safe investment.
People are talking about taking risks and being visionaries. Go do it, go walk in to your bank, and tell them you want a $500 Million loan, to build an office tower downtown.
Here's the after hours champagne party of your banks lending department
I wonder how peoples feelings would be if Nick Preftake announced a 950ft. Super tall here if anyone would still be mad? Lol
I can think of a few nappers who wouldn't be all that pleased.
Wow. Talk about divorced from reality. I hope you aren't serious.
If the demand is there and demonstrable, there might be a case to loan or invest. But NO ONE invests without a pretty serious market plan and data to support. There isn't just a thing of "trust me, build it and they will come". That's how banks and real estate companies go broke. There has to be pretty good evidence you can at least make debt service.
Just curious what FACTs you have that confirms that the demand at the level to pay what it would cost is there?
I was actually agreeing with you Rover. Perhaps you could reread my post, or the several others I have had in this thread regarding people not being realistic.
…or just look at the image…I think that pretty well spells out what you're trying to say...
OKC is seeing growth and a substantial amount of quality products put on the market in terms of mixed-use development. This signals some amount of demand for quality development.
Full occupancy of Class-A office space is demonstrable demand. The growth of companies in downtown is demonstrable demand. But no amount of demand on paper makes loaning nine digits a sure-fire, conservative investment by a lender. There are, I imagine, several factors in play as to why these major developments are not occurring in OKC:
1. The Sandridge situation is unclear, and that's a lot of market space. On top of that, they will finish another building soon enough that will be almost entirely office space, so more recent and relevant data is about to come online for lenders to make these decisions…it's better to wait in these circumstances.
2. The state of national economy is still unclear, no matter what either side of the aisle is saying about it. Again, it's a lot easier to loan out $50M for a run of the mill mixed-use residential facility than it is $250M for a tower that is supposed to house businesses that are going to operate in an economy that is still viewed skeptically.
3. OKC has not had much (if any) in the way of large-scale ($100M+) development over the last, what, 2 to 3 decades? I say again, no amount of demand on paper makes it easy for a bank (particularly local ones) to invest a massive sum of their capital into one single project, especially if they are going to be the pioneer investor in a particular market. Devon is the only project I can think of, and it simply doesn't factor into the mindset of a lender. That also means that there are no large-scale developers in this city with a track-record. Most certainly a guy like Rainey Williams or even Preftakes do not have the track-record to get investment from other source, and neither are likely sitting on $250M to just plop into a development. Gary Brooks is about the only person that I think could pull it off at this point (he's the only one I can think of with over $100M in development downtown)
…OKC just needs a bit more time, and if people would step back and realize that in reality the difference between $10,000,000 and $100,000,000 is substantially more than 10x, they'd have more reasonable expectations of major downtown development.
It would be nice, however, if Preftakes would at least get the ball rolling on the two high-rise properties on his block. There's no reason for those two buildings to be demolished under any foreseeable circumstances, and the life on that corner would help the rest of the block be palatable.
I think he just likes to argue & misinterprets what's being said every so often since he's so eager to correct everyone. My observation of course, I may be wrong, lol. He usually makes good points when he does argue, so he has a good track record. Just sometimes a little too ready to argue (it's a common trait, imo).
So, you are saying that someone should be able to walk in and demand that kind of loan?
It is one thing to say that Tebow sucks and quite another to know what it actually takes or what is involved in being an NFL qb. Anything is easy for those that don't actually have to do it.
Rover, put the whiskey away. We're not really attacking a rich millionaire dude anyway (so you can focus your efforts on defending Rainey), just venting over how unsightly this block has become while it sits in real estate purgatory.
Hey hey hey....There are still tenants in there. My pure speculation is that you will see something happen this summer. I anticipate the 1 n Hudson being empty late May. Also, most of the pictures with the nappers were before the bus station moved. We haven't had any major problems since then. The one from the Lunch Box is Al and occasionally he has a friend stop by to chat but usually it is just him there during the day and he is always sitting in the chair, He sleeps elsewhere. Al doesn't drink or use drugs. He is actually a nice guy and is not panhandling or bothering anyone walking by. We have adopted him and got him some insulated coveralls, a cot and sleeping bag as well as a small sterno heater when it was really cold. Some may have an issue with us doing that and say we are part of the problem but we have also been contacting some different organizations to see about helping him get into some type of housing as he get some disability or social security.
That's awesome, just as a sidebar from the contentious nature of this thread. Homeless people exist and have every right to do so. You can't tell thousands of people in OKC (I think around 5-6k) to just stop existing. We ignore most of our problems in this town, but none more than homelessness. I love people who have a heart.
LOL. Refer to the usual tricks. Make a personal insult and then a straw man argument.
I could care less about Rainey and I don't like his project as presented. But I also don't like the complete lack of understanding and the superficial analysis of what it takes to actually DO a development vs. having a pie in the sky dream. Maybe we could get better discussion if some on here actually considered what it takes on all sides of the issues.
This block is an embarrassment. But a more balanced analysis of WHY it is in purgatory may help people understand why these deals aren't easy and why demanding 50 story castles aren't necessarily reflective what can happen. You of all people should understand this.
No I'm not saying that. I'm calling out catch22's argument that you have to be willing and able to finance your own tower development before you criticize another's.
I am not a developer. I don't do that. I'm a trial lawyer. And if I take a dump on the floor and then fling it at the jury, I would expect people to be critical of my performance. I wouldn't say "nobody can say word one until they go to law school and get in front of a jury themselves". If a doctor saws the wrong hand off, I can call him out on it, despite the fact that I never went to medical school.
Rainey Williams should know his limitations. If the financing isn't there, then don't promise that it is. I don't tell murder clients "dude, you're getting probation, no problem".
I don't want a 50 story castle, where have I said otherwise? That's plutonic panda, and how dare you lump anything he says with me. Similarly hoyasooner is historically one of the more credible posters here. You're just taking on everyone blindly.
Help me to understand how demanding better than the utter crap we see here and there is a "pie in the sky" dream. Otherwise that's 1, not exactly fair, and 2, a typical attack tactic for you as one of the most quarrelsome posters on here.
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