General Weather Discussion - January 2014

[venture]

This article will be updated and tweaked as needed through the month.

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Radar & Satellite for Oklahoma

Snowfall Forecast Models

GEM Snowfall	12Z/0Z NAM Snowfall	WRF Snowfall	12Z / 0Z GFS Snowfall

Freezing Rain Forecast Models

GEM Freezing Rain	12Z/0Z NAM Freezing Rain	12Z / 0Z GFS Freezing Rain

Additional information is always available via: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/ Including the side-by-side model comparisons per run time.

[Plutonic Panda]

Are we still going to see record cold in January?

[venture]

Are we still going to see record cold in January?

Its going to be pretty cold, but not something we haven't seen before.

[Bunty]

Are we still going to see record cold in January?

Channel 9's chief weatherman David Payne thinks January will be abnormally cold with low temps not seen in 25+ years. He did mention the possibility of record lows. So that could mean it could get below zero. He showed much of Canada covered with well below zero temps. So far, we'll get 3 shots of it, with the third one the coldest. Hopefully, the TV weathermen won't have to speculate about any blizzards coming.

[venture]

00Z GFS Surface Temp forecast loop: TwisterData.com | GFS 2 M ABOVE GROUND TMPF Forecast

Pretty good showcase of the cold air moving down. Notice though that after the 15th/16th, The Prairie provinces warm up a good deal so that's going to control any major cold outbreaks for late January if it happens.

[Anonymous.]

Guess I should post this in the Jan. thread since it will be January.

GFS wants to make it snow Thursday morning. Best chances are N/NE OK.

[venture]

Snowfall maps in the main article above pretty much hit on what Anon is discussing. Amounts are pretty light and generally north of I-40 - ranging form a dusting down here to an inch or two up to the NE. Next chance of accumulating snowfall appears to roll in on the 8th. Fairly light but a general 1-3" Central back to the Northeast. As the precip moves off to the SE, more mixing on sleet will take place over SE OK. North Texas could see some icing on the 9th into 10th, but right now it looks like surface temps should be 2-3 degrees to warm at the surface.

[venture]

00Z GFS brings chance of accumulating snow (over 3 inches) to much of the state for the Jan 8th and 9th time frame. No real run to run consistency right now though. We'll keep an eye on it.

[venture]

Arctic air will start pouring into Central OK here very soon. Winds are gusting form the NW in the 20-30 mph range. Temps will fall into the 20s through the afternoon/evening.

[venture]

Scattered flurries will continue around the area. Light snow is mostly going to remain up in North Central and NE OK through the evening.

Next system comes in on the weekend. Some light precip mostly east of I-35, but also in NW OK. Looks like it'll be mostly rain to light snow. Nothing major at all.

After that we'll have a front come through early week and then setup the next developing storm on the 8th. Moisture will move north out of Texas through the day. By Wednesday evening we'll have very light sleet/snow mix across parts of the southern metro area. Temps will warm though and any winter precip will go to rain. Main area of precip is going to over Eastern OK the way it looks now. This is all based on the 18Z GFS though. One thing that I don't like...it warms things up pretty fast. This is a huge outbreak of arctic air across the country...this cold air isn't just going to move. So I'm not confident in the forecast at all right now.

[ouamber]

Just came out of the movies here in Tulsa, and it's snowing!!! Nice dusting

[venture]

12Z GFS discussion...

Weds Jan 8th - Some moisture will work up into the state through the day. Temps will be in that range that it will either be very light sleet or light snow. Maybe...maybe...a half inch of snow at the most.

Friday Jan 10th - Moisture returns picks up significant ahead of approaching storm. Forecast temps are projected to be well above freezing, so this looks like all rain. By 6PM Friday up to 0.25" of rain. By 6AM Saturday an additional 0.75 to 1.00" of rain. Through the day looks like light rain or drizzle, and by 6PM maybe another 0.10" of rain. Warp around moisture works in overnight through 6AM Sunday with about 0.5 to 0.75" of rain as it stands right now. Through 6PM Sunday an additional 0.25" of rain possible. So if this solution works out...we could be talking about some areas getting over 2 inches of rain.

A couple things with the forecast. I'm not 100% sold on the temperature forecast, since we know how well these models have done with that this season. It is also warming places to the north way too fast. Areas of Ohio, Indiana, and Michigan are going to have the deepest snow pack (after this coming weekend) in decades but it warms them up pretty quick by late next week. So I'm a bit torn. Right now lets go with rain, but just have it in back of mind that maybe some change over will occur with the wrap around.

[soonerguru]

Nice rain in January is a very good thing.

[s00nr1]

Venture,
We've had a nice discussion at the office today about the GFS' delusional temp forecasts for days 7-10. I'm personally throwing its sfc temp projections for that period completely out the window.

[Anonymous.]

Careful, don't talk smack on the GFS behind his back. He will come with a wrath!

[CuatrodeMayo]

It just got weather nerdy up in here.

[LakeEffect]

It's been 20 hours since an update on next week. I'm starved for information!

[Anonymous.]

No changes really, still plan on it being extremely cold early next week, chance of light snow showers really anywhere in the state (Sat. night into SUnday), but the more concentrated stuff looks to get cranking in NE OK heading into MO. Right now STL looks to be in the bullseye spot.

Precip chances really start going up heading into late in the week. Right now it looks like rain.

[venture]

12Z GFS was a touch cooloer, but it also takes bulk of the precip east...well at least along/east of 44.

Friday through 6PM - 0.25" NW to 0.75" S metro area. Should be all rain, but temps are cooled into the mid 30s now.
Overnight Friday through 6AM Saturday - < 0.05" W to 0.15" E of I-35. Rain changing to freezing rain & sleet with temps below freezing over the entire metro area by 6AM.

[venture]

Not Oklahoma, but I never grow tired of these images...

Few things of interest.
1) Lake Ontario looks almost completely ice free and you can see the Lake Effect bands. Lake Erie is pretty open as well except for the Ontario shoreline and the western basin/Maumee Bay area. Lake St. Clair is completely ice covered.
2) Appalachians are probably gorgeous now with all the snow.
3) Poor Southern Virginia got the shaft.

[LakeEffect]

Lovely image. My grandmother (at the northern tip of the Finger Lakes) must have some great snow right now.

[venture]

In the...it could always be worse category...

Forecast for the family back North...Tuesday/Wednesday highs ranging from 15 below to 0 with wind chills 40 to 30 below. Ahhh those were days.

[venture]

18z model runs bringing in some light snow/flurries into the metro late tomorrow night/early sunday morning. No accumulation except for maybe a smidge of a dusting here and there. the 18Z GFS also takes the Friday/Saturday storm and plops it back down to the Gulf Coast well away from here. So zero run consistency with that.

[bradh]

as far as that weekend forecast goes, sounds like that Green Bay playoff game this weekend will be BRUTAL

[Bunty]

It's been 20 hours since an update on next week. I'm starved for information!

It's good that TV weatherman have backed off from saying we're in for the coldest weather on Sunday and Monday in over 25 years. But it will still be cold, down to 10 on Sunday morning.