2014 Oklahoma Commercial Aviation Discussion

[venture]

Well...time to review what we saw in 2013 and look forward to 2014.. This is just YOY for Dec this year vs last year. Seasonal adjustments during the Spring/Summer can modify these numbers some, so I'm just going off of the same time period to have some normalcy here.

Destination	Airline	Dec 2012 Flights	Details	Dec 2013 Flights	Details	Change
Sanford-Orlando	Allegiant	0	New Service	2x Week	MD-80	+2/wk
Chicago O'Hare	American	4	2x CR7, 2x ER4	4	2x CR7, 2x ER4	0
Dallas/Ft Worth	American	7	7x MD80	8	7x MD80, 1x CRJ	+1
Los Angeles	American	2	2x CR7	2	2x CR7	0
Atlanta	Delta	5	3x MD88, 1x CR9, 1x CR7	6	2x 737, 2x MD88, 2x 319	+1
Detroit	Delta	2	1x CR9, 1x CR7	2	2x CR7	0
Memphis	Delta	3	3x CRJ	0	Discontinued	-3
Minneapolis/St Paul	Delta	3	3x CRJ	3	3x CRJ	0
Salt Lake City	Delta	3	3x CR7	3	1x CR9, 2x CR7	0
Denver	Frontier	2	1x 319, 1x E90	2	2x 319	0
Atlanta	AirTran/Southwest	0	New Service	2	2x 717	+2
Baltimore	Southwest	1	1x 737	1	1x 737	0
Chicago Midway	AirTran/Southwest	1	1x 737	2	2x 717 (Ops FL)	+1
Dallas Love	Southwest	5	5x 737	4	4x 737	-1
Denver	Southwest	3	3x 737	3	3x 737	0
Houston Hobby	Southwest	3	3x 737	4	4x 737	+1
Kansas City	Southwest	2	2x 737	0	Discontinued	-2
Las Vegas	Southwest	2	2x 737	2	2x 737	0
Phoenix	Southwest	2	2x 737	2	2x 737	0
St. Louis	Southwest	2	2x 737	1	1x 737	-1
Chicago O'Hare	United	4	3x CR7, 1x ER4	3	1x CR7, 1x CRJ, 1x ER4	-1
Cleveland	United	0	New Service	1	1x ER4	+1
Denver	United	4	1x 319, 1x CR7, 2x DH4	5	2x CR7, 1x DH4, 2x ER4	+1
Houston Inctl	United	10	1x 320, 1x CR7, 8x ER4	10	1x 737, 8x ER4, 1x CRJ	0
Los Angeles	United	1	1x CR7	1	1x CR7	0
New York/Newark	United	1	1x ER4	1	1x ER4	0
San Francisco	United	1	1x CR7	1	1x CR7	0
Washington Dulles	United	1	1x CR7	1	1x CR7	0

Outlook for 2014

American Airlines
No new service is upcoming right now. There is still an expectation that the merger of US Airways and American Airlines will result in new service to Philadelphia, Charlotte, Washington-National, and/or Phoenix. Doug Parker, former US Airways CEO and now head of American, and his team have said that the rolling hub operations at Chicago and Dallas are going away and will return to a banked operation. This could result in some schedule changes to both airports. Hard to really say which way the changes will go. We could see fewer flights and an up gauge in equipment. However if loads aren't strong enough, it could mean elimination of some flights to boost revenues on other flights.

Allegiant Air
We'll get some insight into their numbers here soon. They are still running major specials out of OKC, so we have to see how their loads are doing and also what their ancillary revenues look like. If all things are good, we could see additional service from them. Top candidates would probably include Punta Gorda (Fort Myers area), St. Petersburg (Tampa), and Phoenix-Mesa.

Delta Air Lines
We saw the Memphis hub closed this year as Delta finishes up the integration of Northwest. There doesn't appear to be any additional changes to the network coming that would impact OKC. Delta is building Seattle up pretty significantly now to feed the international flights to Asia they are pushing there. Personally I don't see a high probability of Delta starting a nonstop to Seattle right now. They appear to be more focused on targeting the bigger routes flown by Alaska, who has their main hub in Seattle, out West. Salt Lake City could see a bit of a hit from there. SLC service does drop to only 1 daily flight for the rest of the Winter here soon. We have seen Atlanta convert to all mainline aircraft again finally. I don't see any push to put RJs back on the route anytime soon. Delta is phasing out the 50-seaters as fast as they can (and as much as they can, some routes still will need them). The type of aircraft will fluctuate quite a bit. We could even see the 717 added in by Delta as they continue to receive them from Southwest/AirTran.

Frontier Airlines
Frontier has been successfully sold, finally, by Republic Airlines to Indigo Partners - the former investors in Spirit Airlines. Frontier will undergo a transition to the Spirit ULCC model. This could mean OKC will drop down to only 1 daily flight at some point. It might open the door for additional nonstop service to more markets. They are finding success in doing this in places like Trenton, NJ and Wilmington, DE. What options do they have? Well the big thing that to notice with the route map is that they haven't gone point to point out west at all. Everything is still hub and spoke through Denver. The one exception is Salt Lake to Cancun, but that is an Apple Vacations operation - something we could get if we ever build the FIS gate area. If they open up the West to more point to point, F9 could find some good opportunities that would work well with the ULCC model (SAN, SNA, PDX, SEA, MSY, FLL, etc). I'm not expecting anything, but we'll just need to watch it.

Southwest Airlines / AirTran Airways
AirTran service to Midway will once again go back to Southwest in March and the service to Atlanta will transition to Southwest by the end of 2014. The bigger news will be the removal of the Love Field Wright Amendment restrictions in Dallas. This could result in additional cut backs to air service in Oklahoma City as through flights to Dallas will no longer be needed. We very well could see Dallas Love drop down another flight or two and also lose a flight to Denver. No additions seem likely right now as the effort is going to be on Dallas flying, converting remaining AirTran aircraft, and launching Southwest metal international flying from 9 airports across the country.

United Airlines
We've talked about them before the last few months that some routes are not performing well. United is struggling with the merger with Continental and they are trying to find another $2 billion in cuts to right the company. I don't expect anything added to the market by them right now until they get their house in order. We very well could see route cut backs as well if loads don't improve. The one thing I will mention is keep the local OKC station in your thoughts as there is a high possibility they could very well be replaced by contract workers this year. OKC is just one of dozens of stations United is looking at to eliminate the station staff at and replace with a third party vendor as a way to cut costs.

Potential New Entrants
New service is going to tough for OKC simply because the landscape is not what it use to be. The number of airlines out there has shrunk dramatically. Here is who is still out there that has the capability of flying to OKC, but again the chance of any of this happening is very low.

• Alaska Airlines - maintenance is done locally by AAR, and has been for years. Currently under assault by Delta in SEA. Possible nonstop destination would be SEA.
• Great Lakes Airlines - this is waaay outside the box but an option would be to get them to bring regional service to OKC and connect airports like Woodward, Ada, Lawton, Fort Smith, McAlester, etc. Not saying the market is huge for that...but it is out of box thinking and would connect the state and feed more passengers to OKC.
• Horizon Air - subsidiary of Alaska for regional aircraft, so it just depends on Alaska.
• JetBlue Airways - OKC really isn't a "sexy" market for this more cosmopolitan airline. They are still connecting major metropolitan areas, such as Detroit, that they haven't touched in years past. The most similar market I can think of that they tried is Columbus, OH and that failed. Austin is another and they are very successful there. We would have to look at the dollars behind the markets though to really figure out if OKC can match up to provide what B6 wants. Potential markets would be JFK, BOS, and FLL. I don't think they would touch California right now from OKC.
• PeoplExpress - this startup has been proposed for a while and purchases Xtra Airways in 2013 and their 5 737-400s. So far no announcements on new service yet. Most flights would be back east and focused around Pittsburgh and Newport News, VA.
• Silver Airways - The do a lot of code-share flying for United and others, but do operate under their own brand. This would be another regional situation like Great Lakes connecting some of the regional markets for local and business traffic to get to OKC. Could also toss in places like ICT, BKG, LIT, SGF, AMA, and such. Again, out of the box thinking that I need to stop.
• Spirit Airlines - The airline everyone loves to hate. They are the model ULCC and the most profitable airline in the nation. OKC is always an option, but they've built up a very strong station at DFW. They really don't hit 2nd tier markets that much, especially west of the Mississippi. It is anyone's guess where they would go.
• Sun Country Airlines - the last one that I can find that doesn't fly here that would be able to. They really haven't been in expansion mode. They are owned by a family in Minneapolis and do their own thing. Their main base in up there but have additional flying from DFW and Lansing. Any expansion into OKC would almost require an FIS gate to open routes to Mexico, which is what they do out of Dallas.

So in the end a solid year but overall completely flat...except for the additional 2 weekly flights from G4. I'm glad we did get G4 back after the LAS service just failed miserably the last time they were here. The moral of the story though going forward, there just isn't much left out there. I know we get the random post every couple of months from some new poster of "ERRMAHGAWD WE NEED A HUB!" but that just isn't going to happen. Could we become a place that gets connected with more O&D markets in a point to point network, absolutely. We aren't going to see a 50-100 flight or more hub setup here. Bigger cities have had them and failed or been downsized. Only one city smaller than us, Salt Lake City, has a hub right now. However there are several cities bigger than us that don't. It simply isn't realistic. What we can focus on is growing existing airlines, connecting more dots, and picking up additional low fare service from the ULCCs...Spirit, Frontier, and Allegiant. We also need to be prepared though of the volatility that could come from Southwest and United. 2014 is going to be a very interesting year for the industry.

[Tier2City]

This is not "out of the box thinking". OKC should / must have a HUB. All ( airlines ) must fly through here. OKC is in the middle of the (country). We are in the best location to connect this concept into reality. We need to "think big" and ignore ( facts ). OKC airport can be BIGGER than DFW with more flights. If we build more runways and 50-story towers then OKC can host the Olympics and the World Cup next year!

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Great post. As always, thanks for all the hard work you do for the community.

[s00nr1]

Sobering post for sure save for the hope we get PHL or CLT as a result of the AA/US merger.

[venture]

This is not "out of the box thinking". OKC should / must have a HUB. All ( airlines ) must fly through here. OKC is in the middle of the (country). We are in the best location to connect this concept into reality. We need to "think big" and ignore ( facts ). OKC airport can be BIGGER than DFW with more flights. If we build more runways and 50-story towers then OKC can host the Olympics and the World Cup next year!

Sorry, couldn't resist.

Great post. As always, thanks for all the hard work you do for the community.

I was so ready to smack you until I got to the sorry. LOL

[no1cub17]

Appreciate the incredibly informative post. Unfortunately it all sounds just about right. Only thing I would disagree with is I really doubt the new AA will connect OKC to all the new hubs - I foresee PHL OR CLT OR DCA, not all three (or even two) - although two would be incredible! My pick of the litter would be PHL - but JFK could be nice too, slot-permitting. Would be great for OKC to one day not become a hub (because that's never happening) - but a major spoke like AUS would be great. Flights to both coasts, hourly to major hubs, MIA, maybe the odd int'l op - we can dream can't we?

[venture]

Appreciate the incredibly informative post. Unfortunately it all sounds just about right. Only thing I would disagree with is I really doubt the new AA will connect OKC to all the new hubs - I foresee PHL OR CLT OR DCA, not all three (or even two) - although two would be incredible! My pick of the litter would be PHL - but JFK could be nice too, slot-permitting. Would be great for OKC to one day not become a hub (because that's never happening) - but a major spoke like AUS would be great. Flights to both coasts, hourly to major hubs, MIA, maybe the odd int'l op - we can dream can't we?

That's why I said...

There is still an expectation that the merger of US Airways and American Airlines will result in new service to Philadelphia, Charlotte, Washington-National, and/or Phoenix.

I guess I could have done and/or between each city.

I'm thinking CLT will be first once they start connecting the dots. PHL will follow and then it'll probably stop. Though if CLT does well, that makes the case better for MIA at some point.

[NWOKCGuy]

You think there's any chance we'll ever have non-stop to SJC or AUS?

[venture]

You think there's any chance we'll ever have non-stop to SJC or AUS?

SJC - I don't see it right now.

AUS - It has been tried when ExpressJet did their branded flying experiment. The highest load factors ever reached were around 35% on a 50-seat RJ. That was 6-7 years ago now though. Would it work today? With the proper equipment yes. However, in my mind that means an ATR-72-600 or a Dash 8-Q400 and not a higher cost RJ.

[BG918]

The problem is that Southwest, the likely airline that would connect OKC to AUS, doesn't fly such small planes and AUS doesn't have a hub airline that does. I wouldn't be surprised to see jetBlue add more flights at AUS but again their planes are too big. I agree with Venture that there is likely enough demand for small planes to fly from OKC to regional, mid-sized non-hub cities like AUS, SAT, MCI and BNA and maybe even ABQ, OMA and MEM but not on the planes the airlines that would do these routes currently fly.

[venture]

If Southwest was setup more like Alaska/Horizon, then we would probably see the direct service to the smaller markets out of here.

[shawnw]

My crazy dream if I may for a moment would be an airline operating (out of downtown heliports) civilian tilt-rotors to connect 2nd tier cities to other 2nd and 1st tier cities. However, the AW609 is too small and taking crazy long to implement, and NASA is only recently looking at large scale civilian tilt-rotor (Large Civil Tilt Rotor), so probably won't happen in my lifetime... plus nobody has any idea what the economics look like yet.

[HangryHippo]

I'd love to see a regional airline start here in OKC using prop aircraft with service to Austin, Wichita, Kansas City, Omaha, San Antonio, Little Rock. I think it could work.

[Jeepnokc]

I'd love to see a regional airline start here in OKC using prop aircraft with service to Austin, Wichita, Kansas City, Omaha, San Antonio, Little Rock. I think it could work.

I fly a lot and you will not get my butt on a prop plane. I know there are those that will but I will not. I stopped flying AA years ago when they put turbo props in. I had considered changing loyalty from Delta (I am a gold elite there) to Continental/United but they are/were flying some props to Houston so decided to stick with DL even though they screw their lower level elite members.

Not so much with the bigger props but especially the small props where you have to weigh before getting on the plane (CapeAir STT-EIS). I don't care about people knowing how fat I am but the fact that where I sit on the plane can determine whether it crashes or not isn't reassuring.

[venture]

I fly a lot and you will not get my butt on a prop plane. I know there are those that will but I will not. I stopped flying AA years ago when they put turbo props in. I had considered changing loyalty from Delta (I am a gold elite there) to Continental/United but they are/were flying some props to Houston so decided to stick with DL even though they screw their lower level elite members.

Not so much with the bigger props but especially the small props where you have to weigh before getting on the plane (CapeAir STT-EIS). I don't care about people knowing how fat I am but the fact that where I sit on the plane can determine whether it crashes or not isn't reassuring.

I think you almost need to do the larger props ATR-72-600 or Dash 8 Q400 which are your 64-78 seaters. The more seats allows you to operate with a better seat cost to attract more people. If we look at anythign mroe regional, then obviously we start talking the Beech 1900s or Saab 340s. AA didn't have any more props (especially here)...but they are back with Piedmont in the US Airways Express system back east.

The props that United flies are the Dash 8 Q400s which have a footprint pretty close to a 737-700 - just a smaller cabin. As far as weight and balance situations...I was on an AirTran flight last month that had to move people around the plane for that. That was a 717...so it isn't just props that deal with it.

[catch22]

The 737-800/900 also deal with weight and balance issues, we very often give complimentary "upgrades" to economy plus (front of the economy cabin with extra legroom). It's not because we like you just need more weight forward if the actual bag/cargo numbers come in lighter than projected. Or if there are a lot of mainline connecting bags going in the rear and not very many express connecting or local bags up front and we need forward weight to balance it out.

[venture]

So in David's fantasy world of starting an airline that would also be focused on the OKC area, it would look something like this.

2 Aircraft Types...

Bombardier C-Series 100/300 Family (108 / 130 - both dual class)

ATR 72 600 series (70 pax)

In flight service, as stated above, the CS aircraft would be 2-class with a business class and economy. Wi-Fi would be a must these days. In seat IFE isn't needed anymore with everyone having their own devices. USB power ports in ever seat though would be a must. Beverage and snacks would also be there. Flights over 2 hours would be a bit more extensive but the base offering would be like a bagel (maybe pick 2 or 3 falvors) w/ cream cheese or other options in the morning and then a light turkey or ham sandwich in the afternoon/evening. I would make a point to find a local favorite to source from so there is some connection to the community. So whatever it is, something more than just a bag of peanuts and a plastic cup that's 90% ice and a third of a can of soda.

The fare structure would be simple and pretty close to what Southwest and other LCCs have focused on over the years. Business fare, full Y fare, and then a non-refundable advanced purchase fare. I'm not a fan of the traditional 7/14/21-day fare structure, but there has to be some control to keep people from just waiting to the last minute to buy a ticket. I also think the crazy/complex revenue management fare structures out there today causes a lot of bloat and inefficiencies to airlines. I would probably take a note from the profitable guys too...and offer an a la carte option to the advanced purchase fares. Have a discount if you don't want bags, food, or a seat assignment. However, if you decide later you do, you can pay for each addition unless the inclusive fare is still available. No change fees, cancel 24-hours before and you keep your money saved for a year. Stuff like that.

So where to fly?



Blue = CS300, Green = CS100, Purple = ATR-72.

Now this is all dreaming here, but most markets would be flown at least twice a day to allow O&D business pax to do same day trips if needed/possible. Some of the more leisure markets would be limited to a few flights per week however. ATR routes would see a higher frequency. The O&D numbers are extremely strong to all of these markets, but figured the market would be stimulated quite a bit after it is in full swing. Some connections would also take place, but the focus has to be on O&D. What I'm not showing in the map above is that a lot of the ATR markets would also be connected to others. Obvious some routes would be avoided that are covered by Southwest or just overfilled with competitors. I really struggled on not adding DAL or HOU service from OKC, but the vast number of flights now just would make it ugly. THOUGH...I would be crazy enough to consider flying a shuttle from OUN to DAL a few times per day.

Anyway...this isn't the most finely tuned idea I've come up with. I have a pretty extensive one I've played with for the last year, but maybe another time with that.

[bradh]

Continental is struggling with fixing all of United's problems post merger

FIFY

I would love to see more options to PHX and/or Mesa Gateway, we've still got a lot of friends back there.

[venture]

FIFY

I would love to see more options to PHX and/or Mesa Gateway, we've still got a lot of friends back there.

Well the thing is...the former Continental team isn't acting like CO at all. The stupid button seems to have been pushed and they are in self destruct mode. Smisek, former CO CEO, has been called one of the worst CEOs in all of America by several business institutions and media outlets. His incompetency is just overflowing. He's no Gordon Bethune.

[bradh]

Yeah, it's really a shame, even Larry K wasn't that bad (no Gordon though). Smisek is pretty terrible, and even pre-merger CO wasn't like the CO I grew to love when still living in Houston.

[catch22]

Well the thing is...the former Continental team isn't acting like CO at all. The stupid button seems to have been pushed and they are in self destruct mode. Smisek, former CO CEO, has been called one of the worst CEOs in all of America by several business institutions and media outlets. His incompetency is just overflowing. He's no Gordon Bethune.

Please don't confuse the Continental management team with the Continental front line.

[Pete]

This is the proposed aircraft parking layout:

[HangryHippo]

This is the proposed aircraft parking layout:

For what? Are they redoing the parking there?

[venture]

For what? Are they redoing the parking there?

Yeah...moving things over a bit so they can better utilize gate 11 I believe.

[shawnw]

Can we get a side-by-side before/after?

[venture]

Can we get a side-by-side before/after?

Of the gate layout? Its not really changing that much, just some different spacing. Passengers won't even really be able to tell unless you see where the old lines on the pavement are.