For those of us who are following this race closely, it can be easy for us to get caught up in the details--the give and take of good days and bad days for each candidate (we are already at 60+ pages of discussion and will no doubt hit 100+ before the election). Doing so could cause us to miss the obvious and very predictable outcome that is before us. Mick Cornett will win re-election. Handily. Here's why...
Consider what Mayor Cornett has going for him:
1) The local economy is doing fantastically, in spite of occasional uncertainty and lay-offs from individually unstable companies. Look at Mick's lead graphic on his campaign website; by any account, that list of #1 national rankings for Oklahoma City is astounding. We have gotten so used to such rankings that we may forget how special of a time this is in Oklahoma City's history. While Mayor Cornett cannot claim total responsibility for these distinctions, they have happened during his watch as mayor. He has every right to claim at least some ownership of these results, as we all know a mayor's ineptitude could certainly keep such prosperity from happening.
2) Mick enjoys broad appeal and support from people across the political spectrum. In a politically conservative place like Oklahoma, and even Oklahoma City, Mick's appeal is an impressive and venerable accomplishment. If you look at the names of the people who have already signed up to support Mick's campaign, it reads like a who's who list of Oklahoma City influence. And we're not just talking about right-wing tea party-types; many progressives, liberals, and democrats seem to appreciate the good that Mick has done for our city. Even those who may disagree with his personal social stands recognize that he has been an even-handed and civic-minded leader for all residents and has been a good friend to many common-sense progressive causes.
3) In his time as mayor, Mick has racked up some significant accomplishments. Some people on this forum question whether these accomplishments rightly belong to Mick. Fine. Let's say we give you that ground. Let's just call these controversial accomplishments his "perceived accomplishments." That's good enough in the political world. But whether we are talking about the presence of the NBA's best franchise or positive coverage on national new networks and publications, Mayor Cornett must, if even begrudgingly, be given some credit for a successful career as Oklahoma City's cheerleader-in-chief. He has been an able communicator of a fresh and bold civic vision.
4) MAPS 3 is beginning to produce visible results in communities all over the metro (with sidewalks and trails), and, contrary to its detractors' hopes otherwise, has broad support in both the overall MAPS brand, as well as the individual projects. Despite occasional concerns, Mick has navigated the passage and implementation of MAPS 3 in a way that has been simultaneously active and yet prudent. Without some capable leadership, the MAPS brand, and some of Oklahoma City's current accomplishments, would have been stillborn. Not everybody has to agree with all of how we have arrived here. The collectively accomplished results include something that everyone should find reason to celebrate.
Consider what Ed Shadid has going against him:
1) Ed Shadid suffers from a lack of name recognition and/or significant previous accomplishments. Being a one-term city council member and a local physician does not give the city at-large the opportunity to be acquainted with an individual they would consider as mayor. To mount a successful campaign against a well-liked mayor, Shadid will have to overcome systemic restrictions to becoming well-known. Money alone won't do it; TV ads and glossy mailers will not make up for lack of stable, consistent, accomplishment in the public sphere. Besides functioning as a capable dissident to other's plans (which is welcome and needed in its place), what has Ed Shadid done, exactly? Some politicians are able to overcome these odds by their unique setting, timing, and charisma--not this politician, not this time.
2) In an environment that is typically and socially conservative, Shadid's positions on social issues will prove toxic to a successful civic campaign--at least this time around. That would not have to be true of every candidate in every situation, but the previously referenced Okie article points out that this problem is closely linked to Shadid's next problem...
3) A fractured and fragmented constituency/support base. The very people Shadid wishes to reach with his unique blend of fiscal priorities are the very people that will find his social positions unacceptable. And the very people who will appreciate Shadid's social progressiveness will shudder at his fiscal priorities. What coalition would Shadid build that will somehow constitute a majority of Oklahoma City citizens? Extreme social progressives and the law enforcement unions? It's simply not plausible.
4) As people have given Councilman Shadid an opportunity to make his case, he has consistently let them down through tactical missteps, miscalculations, and mishandling of issues. Some have complained that Shadid has been downright duplicitous and under-handed, but let's give Shadid the same benefit of the doubt we can assign to Cornett. Let's say Shadid's campaign and overall message have not been deceitful. If they have not been deceitful, then they have certainly been confusing, disjointed, and disorganized--not good qualities for the mayor of a major metropolitan city.
So, apart from a totally unforeseen occurrence (dark horse candidate, financial meltdown, damaging allegations, etc.) here's how this thing plays out:
1) Shadid blusters loud and long and spends significant amounts of money trying to create an anti-incumbency fervor that does not exist (it's the only way he can build a coalition). In the process, he may be able to pick up a few disenchanted residents, until...
2) Cornett gently but noticeably "kneecaps" Shadid on his social positions, lack of accomplishments, and other odd statements (or allows others to do it for him) and continues to present a positive vision for Oklahoma City's future (backed up by corroborating evidence and heavy-hitting endorsements).
3) Mick wins.
With all that being said, this outcome is exactly what should happen. Why? Stated in total fairmindedness... Mick has done a sufficient job to have earned his re-election with no major errors to warrant his removal. Ed has prematurely run for mayor before collecting stable accomplishments (that could otherwise have earned him election) and has voiced suspicious reversals, as well as committed unforced spoken and leadership errors, that should justifiably deny him the opportunity to be mayor at such an important time.
Great post. But the the situation you describe doesn't just end with Mick being reelected.
Can we learn something from peer cities? Oklahoma City and urbanism is for everyone.
Populist urbanism: Beyond the creative class | Better! Cities & Towns Online
For the record I hope Cornett wins. It'll be better for all the townships
in the OKC area.
I might even approve of a sales tax increase (cough, spit, puke, bang head
on brick wall). Of course, I won't get to vote. I just can't stand tax
increases.
I must say that OKC has been responsible, i.e. not spending more than it
should.
What does vulnerability have to do with anything? That's not a strength. Honesty is a strength. Integrity is a strength. Does Shadid possess either of those traits? From what I've seen, he's severely lacking.
I'd be more worried by that long quote at the end of the article... You can almost see him trying to figure out how to make everyone happy and piss off no one with that answer.
Something I heard that was extremely ridiculous...
Shadid's children went to school with my kids. His ex-wife coached my oldest daughter in soccer several years ago. The whole time we were around her she complained about her deadbeat ex-husband. That he was an a$$hole, worthless, etc. The other day on Facebook, my wife sees a picture of Shadid, his ex-wife, and their kids with the caption of "a happily functional divorced family." Not that things don't change (and for the sake of the kids, I hope they did) but that is a propaganda move if I've ever seen one.
I gave you too much credit...this is the exact kind of post every other Shadid supporter has dropped here with little or no real explanation of how Mick Cornett has done poorly and how Shadid would actually do any better...just stupid empty rhetoric. I don't know why I even take this crap seriously anymore.
I love politics and hate them at the same time. It is really interesting, though, to see people attack other people they don't even know, because of who they support for mayor. Also, why is this thread not in the politics section?
Speaking of mayoral drug use (Warning: may not be safe for work). This article needs to be read.
Rob Ford did drugs, partied with escort on St. Patrick?s Day, police document alleges | Toronto Star
Here's a throwback to Ed's Ward 2 run. What a joke Momentum was. Wonder what the outcome might have been if it had been a good campaign?
Twas the Night Before Election Day
by Sarah Taylor, with apologies to Clement Clarke Moore
‘Twas the night ‘fore Election Day, and all through the City,
voters were pondering the “Momentum Committee.”
Their mailings received and their robo-calls gotten,
and the feelings they left, they were something quite rotten.
Hundreds of thousands of dollars they paid,
to squash the momentum the “veggie” had made.
The “drama” of hybrids, the “evils” of solar!
We were seeing the fear in our City’s high rollers.
“He’s backed by the Unions! We think he likes disco!!”
“He’ll turn our fair City into San Francisco!”
If it wasn’t so serious, you’d think these were jokes!
But our own City’s future is tied to this, folks!
They spent all this money to muddy the truth,
and try to persuade you in the voting booth.
But tomorrow’s your chance to show the “Big Shots.”
Let the “Momentum” folks know that your vote can’t be bought!
Stand up for your future! Your voice must be heard!
The will of the people shall not be deterred!
So I leave you to ponder this one final note:
It’s all about our neighborhoods, now GET OUT AND VOTE!!!!
The irony is, I heard Sarah Taylor isn't even an Ed Shadid supporter anymore and she worked for him.
Ha!
Here's one that's doing the rounds at the moment:
He rode in on a white horse,
With messianic zeal.
He’d save us from the demons,
And help our city heal.
He said these things that sounded good,
But didn’t follow through.
We thought we had real leadership, but it was just a ruse.
He campaigned for Ralph Nader,
Green Party all the way.
He made himself a tinfoil hat,
And wore it every day.
He’d wave his magic wand,
And make it all OK.
We thought Ed was for progress, but Ed got in the way.
He’s working for the common man,
Ed promises it’s true.
But he lives in a glass tower,
With full-floor penthouse views.
He says he’s for the people,
But he tried to cut our zoo.
Ed can’t be for the citizens, and against our zebras, too.
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