Oklahoma Weather Discussion - September/October 2013

[venture]

Couple new cells trying to gup around Alva and Taloga. Also a few more near Billings, Blackwell, and Edmond.

[venture]

Someone needs to not sneeze on the wx station at Enid...

#OUN ENID/WOODRING MUNI,OK (WDG) ASOS reports gust of 222.0 knots from S @ 2250Z IEM | ASOS | Current Conditions

[venture]

General take away - late show tonight. We are in a holding pattern until the main storm system kicks out here in the next few hours.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1985
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...WRN OK...SRN/ERN KS


CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550...


VALID 302314Z - 310115Z


THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 550
CONTINUES.


SUMMARY...WHILE AN ISOLATED SVR STORM IS STILL POSSIBLE...THE
OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS LOW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT /AFTER 03Z/.


DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW TSTM ACTIVITY
ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM MCI SWWD TO GAG. DESPITE
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTED
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE DAY...LIMITING HEATING AND RESULTANT
INSTABILITY. MESOANALYSIS CURRENTLY ESTIMATES MLCAPE AROUND 250-500
J/KG ACROSS WRN OK WITH NO MLCAPE INDICATED ACROSS SRN AND ERN KS.
THE LLJ IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...FOSTERING ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. AS A RESULT...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ACROSS SERN KS WITH SOME BACKBUILDING POSSIBLE INTO S-CNTRL
KS AND N-CNTRL OK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE SCANT INSTABILITY...ANY SVR
THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED AND
MARGINAL. FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS...ORIENTATION OF THE UPPER
FLOW WILL FAVOR SOME CELL TRAINING WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF HEAVY
RAIN.


AFTER 03Z...THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE EWD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS MUCH OF WRN OK AND SRN KS.


..MOSIER.. 10/30/2013

[Anonymous.]

Yup. Never got enough sunshine to fire anything. The one place that got a little sun around Enid threw up a couple weak cells, but nothing came of it.

Will wait for the fast moving rain tonight!

[venture]

Feel HRRR now has a good hold on things. Cells starting to fire to the SW.

Loop

[venture]

Evening round getting established now. Thin band of strong storms north from Hennessey up to east of Newkirk moving SE slowly. Moderate rain over SW OK moving tot he NE up I-44. Then a line of storms developing in the TX PH near the OK border moving east.

Get out the canoes.

[venture]

Severe storms with winds up to 70 mph moving towards the Metro area in the next couple of hours.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
KIOWA COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
EASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHERN WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 1230 AM CDT
* AT 1136 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES
EAST OF WARREN TO FARGO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1987
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT WED OCT 30 2013


AREAS AFFECTED...OK INTO NWRN TX


CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY


VALID 310440Z - 310645Z


PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT


SUMMARY...A LINE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY NEWD ACROSS
MUCH OF WRN AND CNTRL OK AND NWRN TX...WITH A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS.


DISCUSSION...A LINE OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
IS CURRENTLY IN THE REGION OF GREATEST INSTABILITY PER OA
FIELDS...AND ALSO WHERE SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RESIDUAL WARM AXIS
W OF THE OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER STORMS. GIVEN STRONG SHEAR
PROFILES...AND COOLING ALOFT...THESE STORMS MAY POSE A MARGINAL HAIL
THREAT BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME WITH WEAKENING
EXPECTED E OF I-35 WHERE COOLER AIR RESIDES.


..JEWELL/HART.. 10/31/2013




ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

[Anonymous.]

OKC gets away from this storm with about 4 tenths of an inch to around half inch further south.



Hopefully next week brings better moisture for us in C OK.

[ou48A]

I heard we can expect a pretty significant storm system in the first part of next week.
CH 9 DP said we could see flooding rains and some sever WX

[OKCisOK4me]

I heard we can expect a pretty significant storm system in the first part of next week.
CH 9 DP said we could see flooding rains and some sever WX

Well, hopefully if OKC misses out again, it'll be northwest of OKC...ya know, Canton watershed ;-)

[venture]

Nothing major in the long range.

Yeah some heavy rain early next week, but that's just it. Severe weather threat appears to be low for the next two weeks. Some cold air dumps down in a week and a half, but no snow with it yet. Pretty "meh" for November so far the way it looks.

[CuatrodeMayo]

Sounds good to me!

[venture]

Bread & Milk Watch Issued for Saturday November 16th.

Honestly, I don't expect this to stick around. Though it has been showing a strong storm system in that time period but placement has been all over the place...by hundreds and hundreds of miles.

[damonsmuz]

Venture, now why on earth would you post this... now the TV mets are gonna start hyping up a mid-month storm and start posting snow totals

[venture]

Venture, now why on earth would you post this... now the TV mets are gonna start hyping up a mid-month storm and start posting snow totals

I would hope the sane one of the bunch would stay away from it.

[ou48A]

Venture, now why on earth would you post this... now the TV mets are gonna start hyping up a mid-month storm and start posting snow totals

One of them already mentioned that a strong storm was coming in for this time frame

[iambecoming]

Please tell me its going to get cold soon!

[venture]

Oh crap it's November. New thread in a second. LOL