2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

[jn1780]

So in regards to forecast track. Should we be hoping for a stronger or weaker system at landfall?

[venture]

So in regards to forecast track. Should we be hoping for a stronger or weaker system at landfall?

We just need a low pressure center that can hold together and it'll squeeze out juice. Faster forward moving storm or stronger would help with that.

Newer models coming in are starting to show more northerly solutions.

[jn1780]

We just need a low pressure center that can hold together and it'll squeeze out juice. Faster forward moving storm or stronger would help with that.

Newer models coming in are starting to show more northerly solutions.

Ok, thanks!

[Anonymous.]

Humberto is now a hurricane. It missed the record for latest hurricane by about 3 hours.

[Easy180]

So the Weather Channel's prediction of 9 hurricanes in 2013 was just a tad off?

[venture]

So the Weather Channel's prediction of 9 hurricanes in 2013 was just a tad off?

Everyones prediction was off...but the season isn't over for 2.5 months yet.

Put together a feature page for Invest 93L as it begins to move into the Bay of Campeche: Weather Spotlight | Invest 93L (2013) ? Bay of Campeche

[SoonerQueen]

everyones prediction was off...but the season isn't over for 2.5 months yet.

Put together a feature page for invest 93l as it begins to move into the bay of campeche: weather spotlight | invest 93l (2013) ? Bay of campeche

...Air quality alert in effect from 7 am to 7 pm cdt thursday...

The following statement was issued by the oklahoma department of environmental quality.

An air quality alert for ozone has been issued for thursday... September 12...for the oklahoma city metropolitan area due to expected high concentrations of ozone.

Persons with existing heart or respiratory ailments should reduce physical exertion and outdoor activity.

The general public is encouraged to help alleviate the problem by reducing vehicle miles traveled by riding the bus...carpooling...or avoiding unnecessary trips. The public is also asked to avoid refueling during the morning and early afternoon hours...and to avoid the use of two cycle engines such as lawn mowers... Motorcycles...weedeaters...and outboard engines. It is also advised to limit outdoor burning.

For hourly updates on concentrations and possible health warnings, telephone the oklahoma department of environmental quality at 4 0 5 7 0 2 4 1 0 0. For more information on health effects, call the american lung association of oklahoma at 4 0 5 7 4 8 4 6 7 4.

[venture]

Umm...an Air Quality alert doesn't really have anything to do with the tropics.

[Plutonic Panda]

...Air quality alert in effect from 7 am to 7 pm cdt thursday...

The following statement was issued by the oklahoma department of environmental quality.

An air quality alert for ozone has been issued for thursday... September 12...for the oklahoma city metropolitan area due to expected high concentrations of ozone.

Persons with existing heart or respiratory ailments should reduce physical exertion and outdoor activity.

The general public is encouraged to help alleviate the problem by reducing vehicle miles traveled by riding the bus...carpooling...or avoiding unnecessary trips. The public is also asked to avoid refueling during the morning and early afternoon hours...and to avoid the use of two cycle engines such as lawn mowers... Motorcycles...weedeaters...and outboard engines. It is also advised to limit outdoor burning.

For hourly updates on concentrations and possible health warnings, telephone the oklahoma department of environmental quality at 4 0 5 7 0 2 4 1 0 0. For more information on health effects, call the american lung association of oklahoma at 4 0 5 7 4 8 4 6 7 4.

Had a tad too much to drink tonight

[ljbab728]

Had a tad too much to drink tonight

Huh?

[Plutonic Panda]

Huh?

i don't rightly know amigo

[venture]

So back to the tropics...

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 12 2013


FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...


THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
HUMBERTO...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTHWEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS...AND ON RECENTLY DOWNGRADED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GABRIELLE...LOCATED ALMOST A COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES WEST-NORTHWEST
OF BERMUDA.


1. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR THE WEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY
DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THIS
REGION...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATER
TODAY WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS LONG AS IT REMAINS FAR
ENOUGH OFFSHORE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES.


2. LIMITED AND DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 550
MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND
THIS DISTURBANCE HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD
BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE IN SEVERAL DAYS...AND THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD.


FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

[venture]

Convection is erupting over the Bay of Campeche as the tropical disturbance moves back over water. Would not be shocked to have a Depression by late today. Latest model spread has landfall somewhere from just south of Brownsville south along the Mexican Gulf coast. A few then swing the system north through Texas, but the northern extent of the moisture might be limited by a front moving down keep the moisture mainly in Texas.

[venture]

Latest update...would expect advisories to start this evening.

1. SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD BE FORMING IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BAY OF
CAMPECHE...AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE
INITIATED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE PLANE IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY. EVEN IF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DOES NOT FORM TODAY...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS LOW HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

[venture]

Advisories have started...

Tropical Depression TEN

[hr][/hr]

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[venture]

First discussion...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013
400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013


SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF
CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE
FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME.


THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS
AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER
THAT TIME...A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
STEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
MEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2
TO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND
THE HWRF.


GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO
FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE...IN
COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL
BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.






FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 12/2100Z 19.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

[Dustin]

Dam failure prompts more Commerce City evacs | 9news.com

[venture]

Depression had been upgraded to tropical storm Ingrid.

[venture]

Forecast for Ingrid now takes her to a hurricane before landfall. Hurricane watches are up over the Mexican gulf coast. Models keep much of the moisture south of Oklahoma.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 14/0300Z 19.3N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 20.0N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 21.1N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 21.9N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 22.3N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 22.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/0000Z 22.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED

[venture]

Ingrid is ahead of schedule and is now a hurricane. Still looks like a non-issue for Oklahoma right now, but might see moisture come in late next week.

Eye was briefly visible earlier today...


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


INIT 14/2100Z 21.3N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 22.0N 94.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 22.7N 95.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 22.8N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
72H 17/1800Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED

[mugofbeer]

Those of us in Colorado pray that BAMM line isn't the course the moisture takes. The last thing we need is tropical moisture from another storm for a while. Damage is limited to certain areas here but where the flood damage has occurred, it is very severe. Lets turn it east over OK so the SW part of the state can get a good soaking where the drouth is still so severe.

[venture]

Ingrid is on shore now and starting to spin down. On the west coast of Mexico Manuel came ashore last night so they are getting it on both sides. A lot of water and mudslides to be expects down there. Some of that moisture is going to be pulled north. We have a good front coming through at the end of the week (will talk more in the general thread) that should help drought concerns out.

Humberto advisories should start back up late today or tomorrow.

[venture]

New system possible moving over the Yucatan now. Early forecast models of it have it developing in the Bay of Campeche and then recurving to the NE around the Gulf cross Florida north of Tampa. Still way too early to lock it in though.

[venture]

Invest 95L is moving onshore to the Yucatan today and looks like it may take a similar path to Ingrid.

[venture]

Concerns are up a bit with the potential for a landfalling tropical system later this week or weekend along the Gulf coast. Impacts to Oklahoma will depend on where it comes ashore. Keep in the mind the system is over the Yucatan right now and, like Ingrid, won't get going until it moves into the Bay of Campeche ("BoC"). The 'sghetti Plot is above that shows what models are thinking for the most part, but I wanted to get more technical with the main models.

Canadian - CMC
Thursday morning develops weak low/depression is the BoC. Reaches Brownsville by Friday morning but remains off shore. The storm will then curve NE along the TX coast and make landfall in Central Louisiana on early Saturday morning. It takes the system up over Mississippi and weakens quite a bit. Some other noticeable features that happen. A week from today it takes the remnant low off the NC shore and redevelops it. The forecast only goes out 180 hours, but it takes this low roughly N along the coast off of the Delaware coast. While this is all going on, it seemingly develops another tropical system over or east of the Bahamas about 84 hours out from today and moves it NNE as a strong storm that moves over Bermuda. It eventually gets absorbed in a stronger extratropical low in the North Atlantic.

European - ECMWF
Operational model develops low over the BoC Thursday morning as well. This system pushes towards the Mexican coast but then halts and starts moving East at 96 hours out. At 216 hours out (this is obviously moving slow than the CMC model) it turns the system due North and has landfall in Louisiana at the 240 hour mark. Other features are a potential weaker system forming near JAX (Florida) and moving to the ENE at 168 hours out. Also another system about 96 hours out east of the Bahamas that will move North into the Maritime Provinces.

GFDL
Has a weak low/depression form the BoC and then move into the Mexico and dissipate. Max winds get up to around 30 mph.

GFS
Develops low in BoC and like Euro takes it to the Mexican coast and hits the brakes. 126 hours out it takes the system NE and landfalls in the FL Panhandle. It takes it off show from GA/SC and redevelops. GFS also picks up on a system east of the Bahamas but keeps it relatively weak compared to the other solutions and moves it North with possible landfall in Newfoundland. It also leaves the possibility of another low forming in the Gulf after this first system pulls out.

HWRF
Same as the others. Depression up and going with in the next 48 hours. It moves towards Mexico but stops well off shore. Tropical storm strength in 60 hours. Category 1 Hurricane at 96 hours. At the end of the forecast wind at 120 hours it is moving ENE and its up to 107 knots or a category 3 major hurricane.

NAVGEM
Very similar to the HWRF positioning, except further to the NE at 120 hours. Landfall near or north of Tampa bay at 144 hours.

So as we go looking at trends in the models, they are pretty clear on what the models are thinking. Right now though it just depends on where landfall might occur. Looking at this spread, it definitely seems the trend is for landfall anywhere from Houston to Fort Myers. I know...I really narrowed that down. With the front coming through late this week, it will likely be what deflects the storm out to the NE away from Texas. If the front hangs back any though that could allow this storm to come north even more. Impacts on Oklahoma, from the storm, appear low but we'll have heavy rain from the frontal system moving through anyway.