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Thread: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion


  1. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    TD 6 Upgraded to TS Fernand...

    TROPICAL STORM FERNAND TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013
    645 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013




    ...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX
    HAS STRENGTHENED INTO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND...


    AROUND 630 PM CDT...DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
    RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
    WINDS IN TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX HAD INCREASED TO AT LEAST 45 MPH...
    75 KM/H...MAKING THE SYSTEM TROPICAL STORM FERNAND (PRONOUNCED
    FAIR-NAHN).


    A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 700 PM CDT...2300
    UTC...TO INCREASE THE 12-HOUR INTENSITY TO 50 KT AND TO ADJUST THE
    FORECAST SOUTHWARD SLIGHTLY. NO CHANGES ARE REQUIRED TO THE CURRENT
    TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA FROM VERACRUZ TO TAMPICO MEXICO.


    SUMMARY OF 630 PM CDT...2230 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...19.1N 95.7W
    ABOUT 25 MI...45 KM E OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

  2. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Watching a developing Low over the Florida Keys drifting to the west right now. Colder cloud tops are starting to form over the central of circulation. Models don't give it much love, but NHC does have it at a 10% chance for development right now. Gulf is very warm so anything can happen.

    Elsewhere looks like the ITCZ will start to pick up from the African coast into the Mid Atlantic. Could see a couple storms form out there if the medium range models aren't smoking anything. We are moving into peak season, so it is bound to get busy pretty quick.

  3. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Invest 97 showing signs it might develop into something here in the next few days. Something to watch. Invest 96 off the coast of Africa is falling apart pretty quick.


  4. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Three areas of concern...



    Area over the Yucatan has a 10% chance to develop the next 24 hours and 30% over the next 5 days.

    Invest 97 just east of the islands has a 50% chance to develop in the next 5 days. Most models take it along or north of the islands and then curves it NE before it gets to the Bahamas. Some models do have this eventually become a hurricane, so the track will be important for many.

    Invest 98 is just off the African coast and has a low chance for development as well but should remain out to sea.

  5. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion


  6. #57

    Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by venture79 View Post
    Invest 97 showing signs it might develop into something here in the next few days. Something to watch. Invest 96 off the coast of Africa is falling apart pretty quick.

    C'mon, BAMS! You can do it! Bring that rain to us!

  7. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Seven has been upgraded to Gabrielle...

    WTNT42 KNHC 050236
    TCDAT2


    TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
    1100 PM AST WED SEP 04 2013


    THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A SMALL AREA
    OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER
    WHILE THE CONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST
    FEW HOURS. THE LARGE-SCALE OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE CYCLONE IS
    EXCELLENT WITH AN ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL SEEN IN WATER
    VAPOR IMAGERY. BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM
    BOTH TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT...AND THE
    DEPRESSION IS NOW TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE.


    DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NASA GLOBAL HAWK AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE
    CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE IS TILTED TO THE NORTHEAST WITH HEIGHT...
    WITH A MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION SEEN IN DATA FROM THE SAN JUAN WSR-88D
    RADAR. THIS TILTED STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH SOUTHERLY TO
    SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OF 5 TO 10 KT SHOWN OVER THE CYCLONE
    BY THE UW-CIMSS AND SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES. IN ADDITION...THE
    DROPSONDE DATA SHOWED DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
    AROUND GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED
    STATE OF THE CIRCULATION...POSSIBLE LAND INTERACTION...AND THE
    PRESENCE OF THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER NORTHEAST OF
    GABRIELLE...NOT MUCH STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT TERM.
    THE NHC FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS
    AIDS FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS. IT IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT THE
    LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ASSUMING
    THAT GABRIELLE SURVIVES...ONLY LIMITED INTENSIFICATION IS SHOWN
    LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE SHEAR INCREASES DRAMATICALLY AHEAD OF AN
    UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS BELOW MUCH OF THE
    INTENSITY GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHICH SEEMS TOO HIGH GIVEN
    THE INCREASE IN SHEAR. THE NHC FORECAST IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE
    GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH DO NOT SHOW MUCH INTENSIFICATION AFTER
    GABRIELLE MOVES NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.


    THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...BUT THE GLOBAL
    HAWK DROPSONDE DATA SUGGEST IT REMAINS SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL
    CENTER SEEN IN RADAR IMAGERY. GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY LOCATING THE
    CENTER...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320/7. THE
    SYNOPTIC-SCALE TRACK REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED...AS GABRIELLE IS
    EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
    SO...FOLLOWED A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BY 72 HOURS AS THE CYCLONE
    MOVES AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATE
    IN THE PERIOD AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AHEAD
    OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK
    FORECAST IS LARGELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 HOURS
    AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE DURING
    THIS PERIOD. AT DAYS 4 AND 5 THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE
    RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND
    FSU SUPERENSEMBLE.


    REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE DURING THE
    NEXT 24 HOURS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL OVER
    PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.




    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


    INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 66.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 05/1200Z 17.8N 67.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
    24H 06/0000Z 19.0N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 06/1200Z 20.1N 69.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
    48H 07/0000Z 21.2N 69.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
    72H 08/0000Z 23.3N 69.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
    96H 09/0000Z 25.5N 67.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
    120H 10/0000Z 29.5N 63.9W 50 KT 60 MPH


    $$
    FORECASTER BRENNAN

  8. #59

    Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Gabrielle is now basically dead.

  9. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Crazy year for topical cyclones trying to get established.

    Invest 99 should have advisories started later today. Air recon en route now.


  10. #61

    Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

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  11. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Watch October and November be crazy.

  12. #63

    Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Man I sure am tired of us humans causing more and more extreme weather each year...

  13. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by Anonymous. View Post
    Man I sure am tired of us humans causing more and more extreme weather each year...
    Not to derail the thread, but I think any common sense would indicate as more carbon based lifeforms populate the planet, CO2 production is going to increase and lead to some warming. We also need to keep in mind that things go in cycles too. If we get things too out of whack, the planet will over correct and fix things (mass extinction event). We are just a blip on this pebble that only has about a billion years left until our star becomes a red giant and engulfs the planet.

    Anyway...

    Advisories starting soon on TD 8.

    1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
    PRESSURE AREA NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT
    DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THIS HAS ALLOWED IT TO STAY OVER WATER
    AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORY
    WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
    CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
    NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
    TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
    TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
    OF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND
    TAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
    STORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN A FEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

  14. #65

    Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by venture79 View Post
    If we get things too out of whack, the planet will over correct and fix things (mass extinction event). We are just a blip on this pebble that only has about a billion years left until our star becomes a red giant and engulfs the planet.
    Just the perk I needed to make it through my Friday afternoon! Thanks venture!

  15. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by BrettM2 View Post
    Just the perk I needed to make it through my Friday afternoon! Thanks venture!
    Hey...I'm always hear to bring the good news!


  16. #68

    Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Averaging out against the last couple of years, is all!

  17. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion


  18. #70

    Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by venture79 View Post
    First of the season in September? That pretty rare?

  19. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    TD 9 was upgraded to Humberto overnight. Still forecast to be our first hurricane...

    TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013
    1100 AM AST MON SEP 09 2013


    VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT HUMBERTO STILL HAS AN
    ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER NEAR THE EASTERN
    EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY TWO ASCAT
    PASSES FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT THE SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO
    INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT. THIS
    ESTIMATE IS ALSO SUPPORTED BY AN AVERAGE OF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES
    FROM TAFB AND SAB.


    HUMBERTO IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A STRONG AZORES HIGH AND
    CONTINUES TO MOVE 280/10 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING HAS NOT
    CHANGED. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 48
    HOURS...GIVING WAY TO TWO CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL
    DEVELOP NORTH OF THE CANARY ISLANDS AND OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
    THIS PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN SHARPLY NORTHWARD BY DAY
    3. AFTER THAT TIME...HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BUILDS NEAR THE
    AZORES...FORCING HUMBERTO TO TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY DAY
    5. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH THE FIRST 48
    HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGE WITH THE GFS...FLORIDA STATE
    SUPERENSEMBLE...GFDL...AND HWRF INDICATING A SHARPER TURN TOWARD
    THE NORTH. THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT FROM
    THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AT THE LATTER END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.


    THE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AFFECTING HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO ABATE
    WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...AND THE THERMODYNAMICS APPEAR
    SUFFICIENTLY CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION DURING
    THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE
    MOST AGGRESSIVE STRENGTHENING...BUT THAT IS COUNTERED BY THE
    HWRF...GFDL...AND FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE WHICH EITHER DO NOT OR
    JUST BARELY MAKE HUMBERTO A HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL
    LIES BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND IS JUST A TAD HIGHER THAN THE
    INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS GENERALLY AN UPDATE
    OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS UNCHANGED FROM DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


    INIT 09/1500Z 13.6N 24.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
    12H 10/0000Z 13.9N 25.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
    24H 10/1200Z 14.5N 27.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
    36H 11/0000Z 15.5N 28.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
    48H 11/1200Z 17.3N 29.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
    72H 12/1200Z 21.5N 30.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
    96H 13/1200Z 24.5N 31.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
    120H 14/1200Z 26.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH


    $$
    FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

  20. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Humberto is up to 60 mph and looking pretty good.



    Remnants of Gabrielle are strengthening pretty quickly and a recon aircraft is going out later today.

    1. SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF
    LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES
    SOUTH OF BERMUDA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED. IN ADDITION...
    SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND BECOME MORE
    CONCENTRATED NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IF
    THIS DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES COULD BE INITIATED ON
    THIS DISTURBANCE LATER THIS MORNING. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
    NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BRINGING IT OVER OR VERY NEAR BERMUDA
    ON WEDNESDAY...AND INTERESTS ON THAT ISLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
    PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE
    REQUIRED. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
    A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...
    80 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
    AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO
    INVESTIGATE THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON.


  21. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Advisories have restarted on Tropical Storm Gabrielle today. Forecast keeps it below hurricane strength. Warnings are up for Bermuda and it will eventually track near Nova Scotia and make landfall in Newfoundland, but it should be extratropical by then.



    TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013
    1100 AM AST TUE SEP 10 2013


    THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF GABRIELLE CONTINUES TO FEATURE VERY COLD
    CLOUD TOPS IN A CDO TYPE FEATURE. MICROWAVE AND GEOSTATIONARY
    SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
    LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THIS
    STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 25 KT OR SO OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
    ANALYZED OVER THE SYSTEM BY UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
    35 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB
    AND SAB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE GABRIELLE
    THIS AFTERNOON TO PROVIDE MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE EXACT
    LOCATION AND STRENGTH OF THE CYCLONE.


    THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL FOR STRENGTHENING DURING THE
    NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS GABRIELLE REMAINS OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C WITH
    MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. THE NHC
    INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS
    CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS AIDS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS. LATE IN THE
    PERIOD...THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY DURING
    AND AFTER EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...WHICH SHOULD BE COMPLETE BY 96
    HOURS. GABRIELLE SHOULD DISSIPATE OR BE ABSORBED BY DAY 5.


    THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/10...AS THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY
    SITUATED BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A MID/UPPER-
    LEVEL LOW TO THE WEST. THE FORWARD MOTION OF GABRIELLE WILL SLOW AS
    THE STEERING FLOW WEAKENS...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN GRADUALLY
    TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY 48 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...GABRIELLE
    WILL ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING
    INTO EASTERN NORTH AMERICA IN 3-4 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS LARGELY
    AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 48 HOURS AND THEN TRENDS A
    LITTLE SLOWER AT DAYS 3 AND 4...LYING BETWEEN THE FASTER ECMWF AND
    THE SLOWER TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.




    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS


    INIT 10/1500Z 30.6N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
    12H 11/0000Z 31.9N 64.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
    24H 11/1200Z 33.1N 65.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
    36H 12/0000Z 34.0N 65.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
    48H 12/1200Z 35.2N 66.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
    72H 13/1200Z 39.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
    96H 14/1200Z 49.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
    120H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

  22. Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    INVEST 93 in the Western Caribbean is becoming one to watch. Models have this becoming a tropical cyclone over the next few days. New GFS this morning has landfall on Sunday in Northern Mexico/Southern Texas. 00Z run last evening brought the moisture up into OK by Wednesday the 18th. The 06Z run takes the moisture more over NE TX and into AR. The 12Z run is still going so will know more soon. 12Z NAVGEM is a bit slow and still has the system in the Bay of Campeche on Sunday.

    Until the system gets going there is obviously going to be a lot of disagreements with the models.




  23. #75

    Default Re: 2013 Tropical Weather Discussion

    Some tropical moisture next week would be great!

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