
Originally Posted by
Pete
As we've discussed many times, real estate development is the worst kind of lagging industry.
You can only develop what you can finance and banks will only finance what has already been working for several years, so by the time something is completed and on the market, all the dynamics have changed (due to the economy, lending market and other developers chasing the same window of opportunity) and you just have to hope things hold until you can get your doors open.
It's utter silliness and leads directly to the insane boom/bust real estate cycle, particularly in commercial properties.
We're seeing that now with hotels and we won't know how this all plays out until 5 or 6 of these new projects open within about a year of each other. And of course, they are all crowding into the same exact price points.
Apartments seem to be doing the same thing but there does seem to be huge pent-up demand.
As Rick McKown said in Steve's chat, you don't want to be the developer still standing when the music stops. But that usually happens to quite a few people.
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