New 2012 City Population Estimates

[venture]

At least according to most people, the 2013 severe weather season has been significantly worse for OKC than most years and its not likely we will see this, at least this significant, in coming years.

And the people that make that claim are called...UNEDUCATED.

Monthly/Annual statistics for Tornadoes in Oklahoma (1950-Present)

I brought this up before. Just tornadoes here..
January Average is 0.3...we had 2. Feb's Average is 0.8...we had 0. March's Average is 2...we had 2. April's Average is 11.7...we had 12. May's Average is 21.4...before yesterday we had 21.

So up until yesterday you can argue, very easily, that this year has been a COMPLETELY AVERAGE year. There was NOTHING significant about the level of activity this year. The problem is people focus on the one or two big tornadoes of the year and think that armageddon is on the way. We could go the entire year with nothing but one EF5 and people would say it was a horrible year, even though statistically speaking it would have been an almost completely quiet year. Granted if we go an entire year with just 1 tornado I would then think armageddon was on the way.

So for the whole year we average 55.1, based on data since 1950. Yesterday has the potential to be our highest total day of the year just from all the small spin ups everywhere. We sit at 37 right now...so we are 18 away being right on the nose and a completely average year. We'll probably go above that if we consider maybe say 12 or 13 yesterday (maybe more if Tulsa finds a ton of small spin ups out there) and the average for the rest of the season sitting at 17.

So even if we get into the mid 70s for totals, if May comes in around 40 total and the rest of the year is average, that is still only going to come in 6th since 1999 (our all time high) and won't top 2011 or 2012.

[venture]

What about Moore residents that decide not to rebuild? OKC proper may not see any losses from this, but I am sure Moore will, unfortunately.

Do you realize how many times Moore has been hit and they keep growing? Vast majority of people DON'T CARE. It is an inherent risk living here, like earthquakes in California or Hurricanes along the Gulf.

[bchris02]

And the people that make that claim are called...UNEDUCATED.

Monthly/Annual statistics for Tornadoes in Oklahoma (1950-Present)

I brought this up before. Just tornadoes here..
January Average is 0.3...we had 2. Feb's Average is 0.8...we had 0. March's Average is 2...we had 2. April's Average is 11.7...we had 12. May's Average is 21.4...before yesterday we had 21.

So up until yesterday you can argue, very easily, that this year has been a COMPLETELY AVERAGE year. There was NOTHING significant about the level of activity this year. The problem is people focus on the one or two big tornadoes of the year and think that armageddon is on the way. We could go the entire year with nothing but one EF5 and people would say it was a horrible year, even though statistically speaking it would have been an almost completely quiet year. Granted if we go an entire year with just 1 tornado I would then think armageddon was on the way.

So for the whole year we average 55.1, based on data since 1950. Yesterday has the potential to be our highest total day of the year just from all the small spin ups everywhere. We sit at 37 right now...so we are 18 away being right on the nose and a completely average year. We'll probably go above that if we consider maybe say 12 or 13 yesterday (maybe more if Tulsa finds a ton of small spin ups out there) and the average for the rest of the season sitting at 17.

So even if we get into the mid 70s for totals, if May comes in around 40 total and the rest of the year is average, that is still only going to come in 6th since 1999 (our all time high) and won't top 2011 or 2012.

No, I agree with you that statewide it has been an average or slightly above year. The difference is most of it has been focused on Central OK this year and that isn't the case every year. For the OKC metro area, it has been a bad year. Statewide, it has been about average.

[venture]

No, I agree with you that statewide it has been an average or slightly above year. The difference is most of it has been focused on Central OK this year and that isn't the case every year. For the OKC metro area, it has been a bad year. Statewide, it has been about average.

So let me ask you this. What is the average number of Tornado for the OKC metro area per year? Before you answer...define the boundaries of the OKC metro area you are going to be including in your data.

When you have that answer report back. Hint - I already know.

[jn1780]

What about Moore residents that decide not to rebuild? OKC proper may not see any losses from this, but I am sure Moore will, unfortunately.

Moore will not see any loses in population. It will actually see an economic boom and an actual increase in population. This is an easy prediction for me to make because it happens after every natural disaster. The people that leave will be replaced by others that would love to live in the area.

[jn1780]

Okay, sorry--I was too harsh in that post. I just don't like the panic and hyperbole we've seen in the last few weeks. I've heard repeatedly on the national news how this type of stuff (EF5 tornadoes, death, and destruction) happens all the time in Oklahoma--and that's just not true. It gives people outside of Oklahoma--and those within it who don't know better-- a completely false and damaging impression of what it's like to live here. I understand people being frightened. That's natural and proper. But I can't stand the panic and hyperbole, which can be more dangerous than the actual weather.

I'm hoping this doesn't negatively impact OKC's image and our population trend, but I have a bad feeling it will.

Media over heightens the risk factors in every state and city. If people believed everything they would just kill themselves because there is nowhere safe to live.

[Bunty]

What about Moore residents that decide not to rebuild? OKC proper may not see any losses from this, but I am sure Moore will, unfortunately.

All together since the year 2000, Moore has been adding on to its population at a much faster rate than Edmond. The tornadoes in Edmond have been less newsworthy and less destructive since 2000. To listen to you, it should be Edmond not Moore that should be growing faster.

[Bunty]

For anyone who wants to play around with other data, here is the link:

City & Towns Totals: Vintage 2012 - U.S Census Bureau

If Enid and Stillwater grow fast enough Oklahoma will have two new metros in 2012.

[G.Walker]

Moore's population grew 34% from 2000-2010 after May 3rd, the forgotten tornado of 2003 and more, I think Moore will be alright, in a couple years the events of May 20th will be just a memory on Wikipedia, Moore will still rise.

[Praedura]

I wasn't aware of Should-Know.com, so I'm thinking it's new (maybe not). They have an interesting page for OKC:

Oklahoma City | Cities | Should-Know.com

Seems like it's a wikipedia kind of thing, only with very brief 'Cliff Notes' kind of info. At least they use some good recent photos of Oklahoma City, which is nice.

Also the population stats seem pretty up-to-date:

City: 596,742
Urban: 861,505
Metro: 1,308,123

Now, the City and Metro numbers I'm familiar with. But the Urban number is new to me. Anyone know what precisely that refers to?

[ljbab728]

I wasn't aware of Should-Know.com, so I'm thinking it's new (maybe not). They have an interesting page for OKC:

Oklahoma City | Cities | Should-Know.com

Seems like it's a wikipedia kind of thing, only with very brief 'Cliff Notes' kind of info. At least they use some good recent photos of Oklahoma City, which is nice.

Also the population stats seem pretty up-to-date:

City: 596,742
Urban: 861,505
Metro: 1,308,123

Now, the City and Metro numbers I'm familiar with. But the Urban number is new to me. Anyone know what precisely that refers to?

This is a fairly good definition.

A city is a legal definition that defines a physical geographic boundary. An urban area is more flexible in that it refers to a region of a certain population density. And a metropolitan area is the most nebulous term in that it comprises an urban area and the outlying region(s) that share utilities, industries, and various institutions.

[rlewis]

More than likely that is the current estimated population of Oklahoma County. I saw the 2010 census numbers a while back and the county had over 800,000 people.

[ljbab728]

More than likely that is the current estimated population of Oklahoma County. I saw the 2010 census numbers a while back and the county had over 800,000 people.

I don't think urban numbers are based on a county population. There are many cities that might span county lines in built up areas and many have large undeveloped areas in the same county. This is from the census bureau website.

A UA comprises one or more places ("central place") and the adjacent
densely settled surrounding territory ("urban fringe") that
together have a minimum of 50,000 persons. The urban fringegenerally consists of contiguous territory having a density of at
least 1,000 persons per square mile. The urban fringe also
includes outlying territory of such density if it was connected
to the core of the contiguous area by road and is within 1 1/2
road miles of that core, or within 5 road miles of the core but
separated by water or other undevelopable territory. Other
territory with a population density of fewer than 1,000 people
per square mile is included in the urban fringe if it eliminates
an enclave or closes an indentation in the boundary of the
urbanized area. The population density is determined by (1)
outside of a place, one or more contiguous census blocks with a
population density of at least 1,000 persons per square mile or
(2) inclusion of a place containing census blocks that have at
least 50 percent of the population of the place and a density of
at least 1,000 persons per square mile.

[adaniel]

Just stumbled upon this interactive graph from Governing Magazine that details migrations in and out of states. It has been updated up to 2011, with 2012 info coming in a few months. Just my guess, but I imagine 2012 numbers are probably going to be pretty similar.

Workbook: state-to-state-migration

Oklahoma actually has one of the stronger net inflows of people, at about +27,869 in 2011.

Among one of the most surprising things to see was Oklahoma experienced a net inmigration of about 12,300 just from Texas. There is a significant error margin (+/- 4,800) but that is still a lot of people.

Other states with strong inflow into OK include California (+3,120), Arkansas (+3,133), and Florida (+3,456).

[Bellaboo]

Just stumbled upon this interactive graph from Governing Magazine that details migrations in and out of states. It has been updated up to 2011, with 2012 info coming in a few months. Just my guess, but I imagine 2012 numbers are probably going to be pretty similar.

Workbook: state-to-state-migration

Oklahoma actually has one of the stronger net inflows of people, at about +27,869 in 2011.

Among one of the most surprising things to see was Oklahoma experienced a net inmigration of about 12,300 just from Texas. There is a significant error margin (+/- 4,800) but that is still a lot of people.

Other states with strong inflow into OK include California (+3,120), Arkansas (+3,133), and Florida (+3,456).

Everywhere I go I see Texas tags...

[KayneMo]

Double post.

[KayneMo]

More than likely that is the current estimated population of Oklahoma County. I saw the 2010 census numbers a while back and the county had over 800,000 people.

Oklahoma County had 718,633 at the 2010 Census, and just under 742,000 at the 2012 estimate.

[Bunty]

Everywhere I go I see Texas tags...

Maybe they're fleeing from the high property taxes in Texas.

[Laramie]

It's the frequency and the suddenness of tornadoes that make them so scary. Hurricanes and earthquakes do far more damage but they aren't near as frequent. Earthquakes are sudden but major ones don't happen very often. Tornado season should be ending going into June so we'll have almost a year before we have to do this again.

People who have lived in areas affected by frequent tonado activity (tornado season) like Kansas, Oklahoma & Texas; they are not phased by this weather and have built a tolerance so-to-speak.

When time comes for you to be called home; it's not going to matter where you are. Relax and enjoy Oklahoma and its wonderful people.

[bchris02]

Everywhere I go I see Texas tags...

I've wondered why so many Texas tags in OKC.