CFB Conference Realignment Continues

[venture]

The old thread on this is long gone and buried now, so figured we'll start fresh.

Announcement coming up of Appalachian St and Georgia Southern upgrading to FBS. They will be joining the Sun Belt in 2015.

Rumors include Jacksonville St, Lamar, and Sam Houston St to move up as well to, also joining Sun Belt, to take them to 12 teams.

[venture]

Updates today...

Sun Belt will grow by four in 2014 - CBSSports.com

Announcement tomorrow will make official the movement of App State and Georgia Southern to FBS and will join the Sun Belt. Also orphaned WAC teams New Mexico State and Idaho will be joining as well. All of them will be in the league in 2014.

Some news closer to home. Tulsa will be making the move to the football conference formerly known as the Big East.
Old Big East expected to move on Tulsa - CBSSports.com

[venture]

Western Kentucky likely headed from Sun Belt to CUSA to replace Tulsa.

Western Kentucky to Conference USA in 2014 - CBSSports.com

[venture]

CUSA may be going to 16. Joy oh Joy.

Conference USA weighing 16-team model - CBSSports.com

[Snowman]

CUSA may be going to 16. Joy oh Joy.

Conference USA weighing 16-team model - CBSSports.com

I guess if moving to sixteen teams catches on at the tier two conferences, there will be less we have to ignore.

It seems like there is hardly a shred of CUSA left, they should have to change their name and give it to the former known as Big East football schools as that is where most of the old CUSA schools are this year and most of the rest follow next year.

[venture]

I still wonder what's going to happen if the Big Ten goes to 16. SEC will probably follow and it becomes a mess for everyone else. I still think Big 12 needs to do at least 11 teams if not back to 12. However, I have a feeling that won't happen until we see the results of what Maryland gets away with leaving the ACC.

Somewhat amusing through all of this...the MAC has remained probably the most stable.

[ou48A]

B1G Looking at Vanderbilt as Potential Expansion Target

But relevant to OU is…….

As a side note, two sources have told The World-Herald that the Big Ten has done prior "homework" on Oklahoma, Kansas and Vanderbilt among other schools who might someday be expansion targets. The Big 12 grant-of-rights deal didn’t stop a look-see for OU and KU.

Report: Big Ten Has Evaluated Vanderbilt as Potential Expansion Target - Team Speed Kills

[Just the facts]

You know that would be huge for Vanderbilt. They are the cellar-dwellers of the SEC but moving to the Big 10 would bring a unique product to the sports landscape in SEC territory. Even if they continued to be cellar-dwellers at least they would have something different to offer in the sport marketplace.

I would also prefer if OU and OSU were in different conferences. It would improve the sports scene in Oklahoma on every level.

[venture]

Here's the CBS version of this story: Report: Big Ten did expansion 'homework' on Oklahoma, others - CBSSports.com

[SoonerDave]

Here's the CBS version of this story: Report: Big Ten did expansion 'homework' on Oklahoma, others - CBSSports.com

Only way OU bolts the Big 12-2 is if the conference dissolves, and so long as Texas is in its catbird seat calling the shots, implying the conference is content at 10 with no expansion plans, that's not likely to change anytime soon.

I understand why Joe C and David B opted not to pursue other options for OU, but I can't help fearing that the long-term result for OU staying where it is (Big 12-2) will be negative. It is perceived, right or wrong, as a bit of an albatross conference whose member schools exist primarily to serve as artificial satellites to Texas.

[venture]

Only way OU bolts the Big 12-2 is if the conference dissolves, and so long as Texas is in its catbird seat calling the shots, implying the conference is content at 10 with no expansion plans, that's not likely to change anytime soon.

I understand why Joe C and David B opted not to pursue other options for OU, but I can't help fearing that the long-term result for OU staying where it is (Big 12-2) will be negative. It is perceived, right or wrong, as a bit of an albatross conference whose member schools exist primarily to serve as artificial satellites to Texas.

Agreed. If the Big 12 was serious about long term stability and the ability to have more chances at the Playoff, then 10 isn't the way to go. Of course its hard to say if 14 or 16 will help any. Since it all comes down to selection by committee, there will probably be biases. How big will conference titles (and title games) play into everything. It'll be a mess for sure. I just can't help but ponder 3 SEC teams being selected being the norm.

So as far as realignment goes, here is the cliff notes version...

2013 Season

AAC - Add: Houston, UCF, SMU, Memphis ; Lose: Pitt, Syracuse, Boise, SDSU (last two never officially joined yet)
ACC - Add: Pitt, Syracuse ; Lose: No one.
CUSA - Add: La Tech, UT-San Antonio, FIU, North Texas, FAU, and Mid Tenn St; Lose: UCF, Houston, Memphis, SMU
Ind - Add: Idaho, New Mexico St ; Lose: No one.
MWC - Add: San Jose St, Utah St, Boise and SDSU retained ; Lose - No one.
Sun Belt - Add: Georgia St, Texas St ; Lose: FIU, North Texas, Mid Tenn St, FAU
WAC - No remaining FBS teams.

2014 Season

AAC - Add: Tulsa, Tulane, East Carolina ; Lose: Rutgers
ACC - Add: Louisville ; Lose: Maryland
Big Ten - Add: Maryland, Rutgers ; Lose: No one.
CUSA - Add: Western Kentucky, Old Dominion ; Lose: Tulane, Tulsa, East Carolina
Ind - Add: No one ; Lose: New Mexico St, Idaho
Sun Belt - Add: New Mexico St, Idaho, Georgia Southern, App State ; Lose: Western Kentucky

2015 Season

AAC - Add: Navy ; Lose: No one
CUSA - Add: Charlotte ; Lose: No one

[venture]

Article on the Big 12's decision to stay at ten: Big 12 takes different path to college football playoff era - CBSSports.com

ACC is pretty much locked now with GOR in effect, like the Big 12. Of course there can always be lawsuits and settlements. So if we ignore all of the ACC schools, there really isn't much left for the Big 12 to take.

Cincinnati - Probably the only viable decent school out of the AAC. Great basketball program and football has be decent to good from time to time.

South Florida is pretty horrible. The conference seems to want more exposure in Florida, but they aren't the way to go. Florida State really was the only option, but they are "locked" in now with the GOR in the ACC.

Notre Dame - Is essentially all in at the ACC, but they would be quality pick up with a huge fan base. The NBC deal cements them being independent though for awhile, unless they start to have issues getting into the playoff.

Boise State - Ehhh. Really far west, but a consistent performer.

Some people are talking about how the SEC has no locks in place to keep schools from jumping. Though who would really want to bust out of the SEC? No one has really taken on the "Texas" role of being the spoiled brat that controls everything, so I can't see much interest in anyone leaving. The most strategic picks would be the Arkansas or Florida. Neither will leave.

So yeah, not much there. Perhaps on the flip side it will be about the dissolution of the Big 12, which I can't see either. We would need to see a WAC style collapse to void the GOR (I assume). It almost seems it would be more likely for the conference to raid the mid majors first.

[SoonerDave]

Can't help wondering if the legal beagles at the Big 10 have fashioned some sort of highly lawyerly legal loophole on the GOR issue. I mean, the whole point of the GOR was to lock schools down for the duration of their membership. What's the point in looking at a school in a GOR conference? Only thing that makes any sense to me is perhaps some scenario where the Big 10 in quiet concert with other conferences pulls away/cherry picks all the non-Texas members and, in effect, gets them all to agree to leave, thus dissolving the conference and rendering the GOR moot.

Just spitballing, of course....

[Hawk405359]

It wouldn't make much sense for the Big 12 o pick up anyone who is remaining. If Boise went to the Big 12, we'd see exactly what we saw when TCU and WVU came in, a team getting smacked by a much higher learning curve. IF they were smart, they would have gone for Louisville to at least give us more of a basketball presence, since we're not getting anything in football.

And yeah, there's no reason for a team to leave the SEC at this juncture. The SEC is much more profitable and they have the distinct competitive edge at this time.

[onthestrip]

It wouldn't make much sense for the Big 12 o pick up anyone who is remaining. If Boise went to the Big 12, we'd see exactly what we saw when TCU and WVU came in, a team getting smacked by a much higher learning curve. IF they were smart, they would have gone for Louisville to at least give us more of a basketball presence, since we're not getting anything in football.

And yeah, there's no reason for a team to leave the SEC at this juncture. The SEC is much more profitable and they have the distinct competitive edge at this time.

Louisville would have been a good get for basketball and football. They did beat Florida this year in a BCS bowl.

But either way, if big 12 stays at 10 schools, the schools get a bigger share of revenues because we are only sharing with 10 schools instead of 16 while at the same time our chances of competing for football playoff spots remain the same as anyone else.

[ou48A]

Only way OU bolts the Big 12-2 is if the conference dissolves, and so long as Texas is in its catbird seat calling the shots, implying the conference is content at 10 with no expansion plans, that's not likely to change anytime soon.

I understand why Joe C and David B opted not to pursue other options for OU, but I can't help fearing that the long-term result for OU staying where it is (Big 12-2) will be negative. It is perceived, right or wrong, as a bit of an albatross conference whose member schools exist primarily to serve as artificial satellites to Texas.

A conference needs at least 8 members to be a conference.
If OU & KU and Texas leave together for the B1G the BIG 12 is dissolved and the GOR issue goes away.
With those 3 universities and Nebraska there would be familiarity and shared interest. The geographical fit is much better for all than in the PAC.
The CIC and what comes with it would be very attractive to OU administrators and it would help advance the university’s mission statement to help the state.

Both OU and Texas need to play each other in the old Cotton bowl for the fund raising opportunities that the game provides. With the loss of A&M Texas needs its OU game more than ever. If it’s at all possible OU and KU would probably want to move to the B1G with Texas.
But we can say good bye to the Big 12 if OU & KU move to the B1G.

[Hawk405359]

Louisville would have been a good get for basketball and football. They did beat Florida this year in a BCS bowl.

But either way, if big 12 stays at 10 schools, the schools get a bigger share of revenues because we are only sharing with 10 schools instead of 16 while at the same time our chances of competing for football playoff spots remain the same as anyone else.

It hurts in the long run though. If the other conferences decide to expand further, it'll be harder and harder for the Big 12 to compete financially and whenver they revise the playoff deal in the future.

[venture]

Exactly. The pay off may be good now, but at some point the SEC and B1G will start to take in more money and the actually payout will be better even though there are more hands to fill.

[onthestrip]

But I'm not exactly sure why the sec and B1G will be pulling in more money. Are you just assuming they will be since they are so big? And didnt one or both of those conferences just renew their tv deals? I'm not sure we've seen the money increase exponentially as conferences add teams. ESPN's Darren Rovell has pointed this out during all the conference realignments the past couple years.

[Hawk405359]

We're not talking about this tv deal, we're talking about the next one and the next one. Media outlets want the widest possible reach, and as conferences pull in more markets, they look more attractive when renegotiating these rates. Right now, with this current deal, there's no arguing that the Big 12 is fine, but in the future with the way the conferences have been playing, the Big 12 has slowly been sinking to little brother status and that probably isn't changing any time soon. The Big XII is fifth out of the six major BCS conferences in total profits, and unless the college football bubble collapses, the gap is only going to get bigger unless the Big XII does something proactive.

There's also a clout issue, and the Big XII has been losing theirs. Ten years ago, the Big XII would have warranted a second automatic bid like the ACC, B1G and SEC have in this new system. But they only have one and now have to compete for another. Those three conferences have a much bigger bargaining chip in the future, and the trend shows that they want expansion. The Big XII has been on a decline these past few years and individual teams may see the SEC, B1G and Pac as greener pastures with more opportunities. I don't think it's realistic to say "well, it's only Nebraska and only Missouri and only Colorado and only Texas A&M." We can't pretend that the Big 12 is immune from what happened to the Big East.

[BoulderSooner]

But I'm not exactly sure why the sec and B1G will be pulling in more money. Are you just assuming they will be since they are so big? And didnt one or both of those conferences just renew their tv deals? I'm not sure we've seen the money increase exponentially as conferences add teams. ESPN's Darren Rovell has pointed this out during all the conference realignments the past couple years.

BIG network and the new SEC network that is going to get announced on MAY 2 ..

the Pac 12 and Big 12 will be close to 30 each the ACC will be much closer to 20

the BIG and SEC will both be over 40

[ou48A]

Exactly. The pay off may be good now, but at some point the SEC and B1G will start to take in more money and the actually payout will be better even though there are more hands to fill.

That’s when the Big 12 schools not named OU and Texas are gradually going to fall behind in their football facilities, recruiting and winning. They just don’t have a fan base large enough to sustain football success, but when have they. Only OU & Texas has ever won a ligament national title in modern times.

[ou48A]

Adding West Virginia was a huge geographical mistake that I still don’t understand.

[dankrutka]

Adding West Virginia was a huge geographical mistake that I still don’t understand.

It makes less sense considering we didn't also add other teams near them. I always thought Louisville and another school would have allowed the Big 12 to break into two divisions again. But that ship has sailed... for now.

[Bill Robertson]

It makes less sense considering we didn't also add other teams near them. I always thought Louisville and another school would have allowed the Big 12 to break into two divisions again. But that ship has sailed... for now.

True. I wonder if adding more eastern teams was the plan but somehow it got derailed?