Will Autonomous Cars Kill Mass Transit?

[Questor]

I was reading an article just the other day about Google and other companies that are trying to build an autonomous 'smart' car that can drive itself, and how such cars have already been prototyped out to some success in some areas along the west coast. The article was talking about such computer-controlled cars being commonplace in probably about 20 years. As fast as technology evolves, that wouldn't surprise me at all.

This got me to thinking about the arguments for mass transit... and in a lot of ways, the autonomous car is probably the auto-manufacturers response to a lot of them. It doesn't address the benefits to city infrastructure and things of that nature that mass transit bring, but from an end user standpoint a lot of the boxes are ticked... so the question is, what kind of impact will this type of smart car have on mass transit? Is it a rail killer?

Discuss....

[Snowman]

I doubt it would make it much worse for mass transit than the current situation, LA proves that people are willing to drive ridiculously long commutes through congested roads, depending on how implemented it should increase the capacity of all road but most cities/states have not backed off widening roads so it would have only shifted how the capacity was added.

It could also get people use to having less direct control of their transportation leading to more acceptance of mass transit. The push for mass transit and denser cities is already showing support in many cities even with existing federal dollars for roads and utility projects, the high probability that those monies are either shrinking or going away only makes it more pressing for cities to adjust how they spend money going forward.

[BoulderSooner]

the big point is with autonomous cars that talk to eachother .. traffic speeds could increase commute times would drop and we would make a much more efficient use of the roads we have ..

[kevinpate]

On days when I depart at 6-ish because I need to be a few counties away by 8:30ish, a car that drove itself would let me depart quite a bit later. The ability to snarf something down and read in route safely would be rather welcome.

[Dubya61]

Initial reaction: Yes ... but after reading the above comments, it depends on who owns the autonomous cars. They could BE the future of mass transit. No need to plan routes. Simply have them respond like taxis. You could log in a request (on your smart phone?) and within 15 minutes, a car is there for you. Reserve one in advance noting your embarkation point, destination and requested time window and the computer could match it to similar ones, send back a message as to how it (the mass transit authority's autonomous car system) will satisfy your request and it could send an autonomous sedan, van or bus to meet multiple similar demands. The fee could be less with shared rides or a fee could be assessed if you failed to use an executed request.

[CaptDave]

The ability to snarf something down and read in route safely would be rather welcome.

This IS mass transit in cities where it functions properly.

[Just the facts]

Why not just do skytran and forget the car.

SkyTran – Futuristic Public Transport with Maglev System | Tuvie

[CaptDave]

Initial reaction: Yes ... but after reading the above comments, it depends on who owns the autonomous cars. They could BE the future of mass transit. No need to plan routes. Simply have them respond like taxis. You could log in a request (on your smart phone?) and within 15 minutes, a car is there for you. Reserve one in advance noting your embarkation point, destination and requested time window and the computer could match it to similar ones, send back a message as to how it (the mass transit authority's autonomous car system) will satisfy your request and it could send an autonomous sedan, van or bus to meet multiple similar demands. The fee could be less with shared rides or a fee could be assessed if you failed to use an executed request.

That is the perfect transportation system Dubya. It essentially takes the manufacturing engineering principle of the "lot of one" and applies it to transportation. But if people think present day transit systems are expensive, imagine the technology, infrastructure, and potential liability costs of that one. It would be a very interesting engineering exercise to research the viability of a system such as that though.

[CaptDave]

Oops - double post.

[Dubya61]

Why not just do skytran and forget the car.

SkyTran – Futuristic Public Transport with Maglev System | Tuvie

Cool, but with autonomous cars, I don't have to travel to get to a terminal.

[Just the facts]

Honestly - I don't see autonomous cars working because you still have to share the road with non-autonomous cars and how much would it suck to be stuck in a car about to get hit by a texter and there is nothing you can do about it except brace for impact. Plus, unless these cars are going to drive on something beside 4 tires and a road, it doesn't solve any of the wear and tear issue on our nation's infrastructure and I assume they would all still need to run on gasoline. Finally, what problem is actully be solved by one of these cars - just the physical driving part? That is the only part people enjoy. Let me also add, I work in a building with 4,000 people - are 4,000 autonomous cars going to line up everyday to take us all home?

[kevinpate]

... are 4,000 autonomous cars going to line up everyday to take us all home?

Nope. They'll just text their owners about what happy hour parking lot they'll be waiting in.

[hoya]

Bored, looking through old posts and saw this.

Theoretically your car could take you to work and then go back home, eliminating the need for a parking space downtown. If you live too far away, it could drive itself to some big mega-garage in the middle of nowhere. You text your car when you're ready for it to come pick you up, and it follows GPS instructions from your phone and comes to get you. It doesn't eliminate the problems of traffic, in fact it probably increases them. You'd extend rush hour as you have cars driving around by themselves long after the people who used them were already at work.

Personally I just don't see them as feasible anyway. What happens when a sensor goes out? You'd have a car flying down the road oblivious to whatever is in front of/beside it. They're supposed to communicate with each other, but what happens if a deer runs across the road? What happens if someone gets in your car while it's sitting at a red light?

[kevinpate]

... You'd have a car flying down the road oblivious to whatever is in front of/beside it. ...

Not sure this part is all that different from today for some folk.

[Just the facts]

What if the autonomous car hits a child, gets a flat, or is involved in an accident?

[Snowman]

What if the autonomous car hits a child, gets a flat, or is involved in an accident?

It will likely have lower statistics of hitting children than human drivers and a better chance of reacting before it happens; not that it maters after the fact for the family who did it.

Getting a flat is much easier to test and have test responses for than other things that may arise. Plus since it will almost certainly have restraints on how it drives is less likely to get flats we in the worst situations that may occur.

Until the legalities of who is responsible for damages is settled they will not be sold.

[Just the facts]

Cool, but with autonomous cars, I don't have to travel to get to a terminal.

Yes you do, you just aren't driving. You will still wait in the same traffic. The only difference is you will be 3 feet to the right.

[Just the facts]

It will likely have lower statistics of hitting children than human drivers and a better chance of reacting before it happens; not that it maters after the fact for the family who did it.

I have been hit by two cars while riding my bike. In both incidents the drivers didn't have enough time to react and avoid me, but both times they stopped and helped me. Is an autonomous car going to stop and help me? Will it even know it hit me or would I have been chalked up to a bump in the road?

[Midtowner]

I have been hit by two cars while riding my bike. In both incidents the drivers didn't have enough time to react and avoid me, but both times they stopped and helped me. Is an autonomous car going to stop and help me? Will it even know it hit me or would I have been chalked up to a bump in the road?

You're going to have to get an autonomous bike.

[Just the facts]

You're going to have to get an autonomous bike.

That is what led to my crashes in the first place. No one was driving the bike

[kevinpate]

chalked up to a bump in the road, or a chalk outline of a bump in the road?

[Snowman]

I have been hit by two cars while riding my bike. In both incidents the drivers didn't have enough time to react and avoid me, but both times they stopped and helped me. Is an autonomous car going to stop and help me? Will it even know it hit me or would I have been chalked up to a bump in the road?

An estimate for where they were five years ago to stop was from initial detecting an object was 1/6th the time the best possible human reaction could be, that might even be improved upon, also their is a good chance it would notice you sooner than a person would as well and less likely to get itself in a position to hit you. It will likely be programmed to stop if a collision is either detected or radar/FLIR indicated one might have been possible, the person may still drive off.

[Just the facts]

chalked up to a bump in the road, or a chalk outline of a bump in the road?

Well technically, I ended up on the sidewalk both times.

[Just the facts]

An estimate for where they were five years ago to stop was from initial detecting an object was 1/6th the time the best possible human reaction could be, that might even be improved upon, also their is a good chance it would notice you sooner than a person would as well and less likely to get itself in a position to hit you. It will likely be programmed to stop if a collision is either detected or radar/FLIR indicated one might have been possible, the person may still drive off.

Applying brakes and stopping in time are two different things. A car doing 45 mph takes about 100 feet to stop. If I am in that 100 feet no amount of computer programming is going to help.

But anyhow, back to the originial premis - how are automomous cars going to reduce traffic and kill mass transit. Like I said earlier, the office complex I work in has 4,000 people. Are 4,000 autonomous cars going to pick us up? How is that different than the 4,000 cars we already drive?

[Plutonic Panda]

I have been hit by two cars while riding my bike. In both incidents the drivers didn't have enough time to react and avoid me, but both times they stopped and helped me. Is an autonomous car going to stop and help me? Will it even know it hit me or would I have been chalked up to a bump in the road?

In Oklahoma?