Big 12 Midseason Observations

[ljbab728]

It's obvious at this point in the season that K State and OU are the class of the conference. Not coincidentally they are they only teams playing really good defense with OSU a distant 3rd. West Virginia was greatly overrated and the preseason thought that they could come in and win the conference in their first year is laughable now. Anything is still possible but the pecking order is coming into place. Below K State and OU, I could see any team winning any particular game.

[venture]

I think WVU needs to realize this isn't the Big East where you just outscore the other team and win. Texas Tech is improving greatly finally. I'm glad we are done with them. I feel really sorry for Kansas though. I would like to see much more balance in the conference instead of someone just getting embarrassed week in and week out.

[ljbab728]

I think WVU needs to realize this isn't the Big East where you just outscore the other team and win. Texas Tech is improving greatly finally. I'm glad we are done with them. I feel really sorry for Kansas though. I would like to see much more balance in the conference instead of someone just getting embarrassed week in and week out.

I agree except that I love to see OU dominate other teams. LOL
Actually the conference has been hard to predect other than K State and OU. Any team can win any game so it's very balanced.

[dankrutka]

I think WVU needs to realize this isn't the Big East where you just outscore the other team and win. Texas Tech is improving greatly finally.

Do you not see the contradiction in your first two sentences? How do you think Tech won this week? Great defense? The Big 12 may be the best offensive and worst defensive BCS conference in the country. More than any other conference, you can win by just outscoring teams. Actually, there's probably no better example of this nationally than OU's 2008 team, which got to the title game with a great offense and average defense.

[venture]

Do you not see the contradiction in your first two sentences? How do you think Tech won this week? Great defense? The Big 12 may be the best offensive and worst defensive BCS conference in the country. More than any other conference, you can win by just outscoring teams. Actually, there's probably no better example of this nationally than OU's 2008 team, which got to the title game with a great offense and average defense.

This isn't 2008 anymore.

My comments on Tech were more about how they performed against WVU. It takes good defense to keep a crazy offense like them in check. Now as far as worst defense in the BCS conferences...it depends. The Big 12 has 5 teams ranked #34 (Tech) and up to #11 (OU) in points per game. In yards per game we see Tech up to 8th, OU at 15th. However Texas, WVU and Baylor (the worst) isn't helping our case.

[dankrutka]

This isn't 2008 anymore.

My comments on Tech were more about how they performed against WVU. It takes good defense to keep a crazy offense like them in check. Now as far as worst defense in the BCS conferences...it depends. The Big 12 has 5 teams ranked #34 (Tech) and up to #11 (OU) in points per game. In yards per game we see Tech up to 8th, OU at 15th. However Texas, WVU and Baylor (the worst) isn't helping our case.

You have to take those rankings into context. Tech's defensive ranking is almost solely based on their incredibly weak non-confernce schedule. Tech's D is probably very possibly not even top 50 in the nation. One game (against WVU) does not a defense make. The Big 12 is pretty much the exact same conference it was in 2008. How do you think it's changed?

[venture]

You have to take those rankings into context. Tech's defensive ranking is almost solely based on their incredibly weak non-confernce schedule. Tech's D is probably very possibly not even top 50 in the nation. One game (against WVU) does not a defense make. The Big 12 is pretty much the exact same conference it was in 2008. How do you think it's changed?

Obviously Tech's early cupcake schedule helped...we all knew that when they were going into the OU game ranked #1. The Big 12 was all about spread offense, but definitely starting to see teams take note and start to make changes. Run game is getting more notice and the teams on top are back to focusing on basic defense. You also have Tech wanting to revamp their defense to get more of an SEC style - which will take a few years.

[Hawk405359]

I completely called the Big 12 wrong this year. I thought WVU was going to be the only dangerous team in it. Now K-State and OU are both ahead and WVU isn't even looking that threatening.

[venture]

Jerry Palm now projecting K State to the BCS Title and OU to the Fiesta (against Boise.../shiver).

[OKCisOK4me]

If it were 2014 and they could playoff to be in the championship game then I'd agree. Probably gonna be Alabama/Oregon.

[venture]

If it were 2014 and they could playoff to be in the championship game then I'd agree. Probably gonna be Alabama/Oregon.

KSU jumped Oregon in the BCS today. Palm is probably the biggest BCS geek there is, so he is probably working everything out based on how the season will play out.

[BlackmoreRulz]

Is the bowl agreement with the SEC in effect this year?

[ljbab728]

Is the bowl agreement with the SEC in effect this year?

That will begin in the 2014 season.

[dankrutka]

I just don't see it. The conference is pass first with a lot of porous defenses, and few teams have consistent run games. I'd be interested to see any data that backs up what you're saying because I don't see it. The Big 12 looks just like it did four years ago.

[boitoirich]

It's great to see that OU has turned things around from the beginning of the season. Unfortunately, there are no more games remaining against high-quality teams to sneak back into contention for the Big Bowl. The only computer Top 15 teams in the Big 12 are K-State, OU, and Tech, so no more opportunities there. A one-loss SEC team is a lock for the game, and even if Kansas State falters somewhere, a one-loss Pac 12 champion would probably sneak ahead of OU because they've got more high-profile games remaining. Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, and USC are all Top 15, and would still have a title game against a respected team. In the last week of the season, OU has... TCU. That would be a "nice" win, but nothing like USC beating Oregon in prime time.

The best case scenario would be a late Kansas State loss, a strong Notre Dame losing to OU but beating Pac 12 South Champion USC, who then beats undefeated Pac 12 North champion Oregon, moving up OU to face whoever comes out of the SEC. Weirder things have happened -- I recall Les Miles won a championship with 2 losses at LSU during that strange 2007 season.

Unless OSU or TCU gets hot and goes on a tear, the Big 12 is actually in its own way this way, especially as far as OU is concerned.

[dankrutka]

It's great to see that OU has turned things around from the beginning of the season. Unfortunately, there are no more games remaining against high-quality teams to sneak back into contention for the Big Bowl. The only computer Top 15 teams in the Big 12 are K-State, OU, and Tech, so no more opportunities there. A one-loss SEC team is a lock for the game, and even if Kansas State falters somewhere, a one-loss Pac 12 champion would probably sneak ahead of OU because they've got more high-profile games remaining. Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, and USC are all Top 15, and would still have a title game against a r

espected team. In the last week of the season, OU has... TCU. That would be a "nice" win, but nothing like USC beating Oregon in prime time.

The best case scenario would be a late Kansas State loss, a strong Notre Dame losing to OU but beating Pac 12 South Champion USC, who then beats undefeated Pac 12 North champion Oregon, moving up OU to face whoever comes out of the SEC. Weirder things have happened -- I recall Les Miles won a championship with 2 losses at LSU during that strange 2007 season.

Unless OSU or TCU gets hot and goes on a tear, the Big 12 is actually in its own way this way, especially as far as OU is concerned.

Huh? You know that OU plays a top 5 BCS team in 4 day, right?!? If OU wins convincingly then they could position themselves as the top 1 loss team. It's very unlikely there will be two undefeated teams at the end of the season. There are a lot of losses still out there. OU couldn't definitely go over a 1 loss SEC team. voters are not going to want to vote a 1 loss LSU, for example, over OU. I'm still not totally convinced OU can sustain this success, but we'll see.

[onthestrip]

KSU certainly looks to be in the driver seat. They can lose one game (unless its to OSU) and most likely still win the conference with the head to head win over OU. OSU is the only other school that controls their own Big 12 destiny.

[onthestrip]

Hearing OU fans go over the possibilities of how they can get back into the national title game is always enjoyable. Even if KSU loses a game, they still win the big 12 and I doubt all the pollsters will have OU very far ahead of them due to head to head loss. Also to say that voters wont vote a 1 loss SEC team is pretty foolish. A 1 loss SEC team will pretty much always be voted above other 1 loss teams, and the previous decade shows that.

That being said, Im sure this get-back-into-the-title-game talk will ramp up after this week because I see an OU win

[dankrutka]

Hearing OU fans go over the possibilities of how they can get back into the national title game is always enjoyable. Even if KSU loses a game, they still win the big 12 and I doubt all the pollsters will have OU very far ahead of them due to head to head loss. Also to say that voters wont vote a 1 loss SEC team is pretty foolish. A 1 loss SEC team will pretty much always be voted above other 1 loss teams, and the previous decade shows that.

That being said, Im sure this get-back-into-the-title-game talk will ramp up after this week because I see an OU win

Yeah, because OU has never jumped a team that they lost to head-to-head (see Texas in 2008) or an undefeated SEC team (Auburn in 2004). It depends who the SEC team is. OU has looked great as of late. If they continue this throughout the season they could be the top one loss team. I'm not totally sold that this will happen. I think OU could definitely lose another game or two, but OU has played for 2 titles in the last 8 years with a loss. If you're amused by the discussion it's probably because your team does not play for titles on a regular basis. That's what OU does. Besides, having these discussions is what's fun about college football. The speculation gives you hope.

I also disagree with Spartan putting KSU well above OU. You have to give them their due, but if OU doesn't make one of those two terrible turnovers by the QBs (especially Bell's) then they beat KSU while playing a poor game. How can you then justify putting Tech and OU on the same level? OU went to Tech and demolished them. KSU came to Norman and squeaked out a win.

[Spartan]

I've seen several times in this thread that OSU is the third team in the pecking order, OSU controls its destiny, and so on.. I'm confused by this. We're talking about by far the most dinged up team in the conference. They might be on their third string QB for TCU. Their receivers aren't receiving. The only offense the D has been able to stop is a discombobulated Iowa State squad.

Here's how I feel it goes:

K-State

HUGE DROP

OU
Tech

SMALL DROP

OSU
UT
TCU
WVU
Iowa St

HUGE DROP

Baylor
KU

The problem for OU is that K-State plays way too disciplined and Snyder never overlooks a team. The problem for OSU is that they've already lost to teams they should have beat - pick your reason, shockingly bad D, receivers, injuries, freshman QB, controversial officiating, tough schedule - just a perfect storm that will continue the rest of the season for them.

[ThomPaine]

I've seen several times in this thread that OSU is the third team in the pecking order, OSU controls its destiny, and so on.. I'm confused by this. We're talking about by far the most dinged up team in the conference. They might be on their third string QB for TCU. Their receivers aren't receiving. The only offense the D has been able to stop is a discombobulated Iowa State squad.

Here's how I feel it goes:

K-State

HUGE DROP

OU
Tech

SMALL DROP

OSU
UT
TCU
WVU
Iowa St

HUGE DROP

Baylor
KU

The problem for OU is that K-State plays way too disciplined and Snyder never overlooks a team. The problem for OSU is that they've already lost to teams they should have beat - pick your reason, shockingly bad D, receivers, injuries, freshman QB, controversial officiating, tough schedule - just a perfect storm that will continue the rest of the season for them.

I've got no problem with your rankings, but your "HUGE DROP" after KSU to OU is wrong. If those two were playing this weekend, OU would be favored by a touchdown at home and a field goal in Manhattan. KSU was the better team the day they played, thanks to three OU turnovers, one of which gave up 7 points (Jones), the other taking seven off the board (Bell). KSU is the best team in the Big XII right now, but they should be happy there is no Big XII title game if OU is able to sustain their current level of play.

[Spartan]

Sigh... Everyone plays like crap against K-State, not just [insert your team here]. That's what happens when they assert their game plan to grind out every game.

But I am sure OU would be two thousand touchdown favorites if only the game were played today.

[dankrutka]

Sigh... Everyone plays like crap against K-State, not just [insert your team here]. That's what happens when they assert their game plan to grind out every game.

But I am sure OU would be two thousand touchdown favorites if only the game were played today.

Sigh. Do you honestly think K-State caused Blake Bell to inexplicably fumble on the 1? They had nothing to do with it, and if that doesn't happen OU very likely wins.

You act like K-State has some long-standing trend of doing this to OU. We're not talking about Alabama here. K-State hadn't beat OU since 2003, Snyder has had a terrible record against Stoops, and OU went into Manhattan last year against a very similar team and won 58-17 when they were ranked in the top 10... But I guess that's what happens when "they assert their game plan to grind out every game." It often doesn't work against more talented teams like OU and I believe that if they played again OU would win. Credit to K-State for dictating the game and capitalizing on OU's miscues, but if you watched the game at all, you'd realize that everything fell into place for them to pull the upset.

[SoonerDave]

I make no pretense that I believe OU is in the same league with Alabama. However...

If KSU loses one game, and OU runs the table...which includes a win over a current BCS #5 Notre Dame, it would (right or wrong) all but certainly put OU over KSU in the BCS. The two would share the Big 12 title due to the round-robin schedule, and I believe the higher ranked BCS team gets the preference specifically to prevent a lower-ranked HTH winner from keeping a higher-ranked HTH loser from a possible national title chance.

If OU played KSU again, I'd favor OU. Blake Bell has fumbled out of the Belldozer exactly one time out of 23 or whatever the number is, and the KSU defense had exactly zero do to with it. He dropped the ball, pure and simple, probably because he realized he was going to walk into the endzone (play was perfectly set up). And keep in mind KSU scored 3 off the turnover, which is a 10-point swing in a five-point game. And that doesn't even account for Landry's fumble. Or the four points lost because he missed a wide-open receiver for a TD on the game's opening drive.

Yes, KSU is miles better than anyone thought, and their discipline and toughness is incredible. And regardless of the reason, they beat OU straight up at home. No way you can escape that. But to suggest on the basis of that game there's a "huge dropoff" between OU and KSU is silly.

[Spartan]

I make no pretense that I believe OU is in the same league with Alabama. However...

If KSU loses one game, and OU runs the table...which includes a win over a current BCS #5 Notre Dame, it would (right or wrong) all but certainly put OU over KSU in the BCS. The two would share the Big 12 title due to the round-robin schedule, and I believe the higher ranked BCS team gets the preference specifically to prevent a lower-ranked HTH winner from keeping a higher-ranked HTH loser from a possible national title chance.

If OU played KSU again, I'd favor OU. Blake Bell has fumbled out of the Belldozer exactly one time out of 23 or whatever the number is, and the KSU defense had exactly zero do to with it. He dropped the ball, pure and simple, probably because he realized he was going to walk into the endzone (play was perfectly set up). And keep in mind KSU scored 3 off the turnover, which is a 10-point swing in a five-point game. And that doesn't even account for Landry's fumble. Or the four points lost because he missed a wide-open receiver for a TD on the game's opening drive.

Yes, KSU is miles better than anyone thought, and their discipline and toughness is incredible. And regardless of the reason, they beat OU straight up at home. No way you can escape that. But to suggest on the basis of that game there's a "huge dropoff" between OU and KSU is silly.

You guys scored how many points below your season avg, and that had nothing to do with the K-State defense?

You goons should listen to yourselves. My god. I have even more news for you..all you've done to restore your confidence is take your frustration out on a crappy Texas team and whoop up on Kansas. The only good win OU has is TTU. It's a LOT more likely that you'll lose again than run the table.

K-State is the only team that's really in the driver's seat. Just accept that. I'm not really surprised by that at all. If you didn't expect Klein to be dynamite again this year, and didn't expect Snyder to win the Big 12 at least once again, then you only see the world through crimson-colored lenses and your opinion isn't even relevant.

The advantage that K-State has over everyone is that they're the one oddball team that nobody can really prepare for. They bring a different brand of football that Big 12 coaches and scout teams just don't get. They have a gamer qb, the best coach in the conference, and they play mistake-free football. They are by far the most disciplined football team in the conference. They let you make the mistakes, and OU certainly did. Oh well!