Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

[venture]

Line is now warned from Kiowa to Caddo and Wa$hita into Canadian and Blaine counties.

[venture]

Main line continues to be severe.

New Severe Warning for Canadian, Oklahoma, Logan and Kingfisher and the cell starts to break off and move more NE.

Another isolated cell in Comanche County moving NE needs to be watched.

[venture]

Entire line is making a shift to the east now. New warning for Caddo and Grady counties to account for this.

Storm review...

Canadian County Storm - Strong and damaging winds approach Yukon and Mustang in next few minutes. They are over Union City right now. Hail doesn't look major...mainly under an inch right now.

Oklahoma County Storm - This is the not the one warned. Currently heavy rain and some gusty winds.

Caddo County Storm - Main strong winds...especially near Gracemont.

Comanche County Storm - Currently weakening.

Kiowa County Storm (end of line) - Some larger hail being detected higher up in the storm. Could see this warned soon.

Tillman County - Two storms. Main one is SE of Frederick with some small hail, and isolated by itself. In the Western part of the county is a weak storm that will probably join up with the line.

Pontotoc County - Severe storm near Ada with 2" hail detected. This storm also has rotation with it and is moving to the ENE into he city of Ada.

Into Texas - We have mostly isolated storms there, one is now Tornado Warned near Haskell.

[venture]

#OUN extends area of Tornado Watch for Carter, Coal, Hughes, Lincoln, Love, Murray, Payne, Pontotoc, Pottawatomi

[venture]

Norman has brought the KFDR radar site online, so getting a much better look at storms in SW OK now.

Things definitely look like we could see several storms starting to pick in intensity down there. Currently 4 isolated storms building. SW of those is the tornado warned storm.

Storms moving in from the West are falling back in intensity and organization a bit. Storm in NE Oklahoma County is increasing and could be warned soon.

[venture]

Tillman into Comanche County storm is now severe. No significant rotation with it right now, but it is by itself.

[venture]

Very concerned now on the storm in Caddo County. Either very high winds or strong rotation developing to the SW of Anadarko and SE of Fort Cobb. Hail over 2 inches estimated right now.

[venture]

Rotating wall cloud moving SE of Gracemont.

Also strong rotation on the storm SW of Wichita Falls. Could see a few tornado warnings here soon.

[Bunty]

KOCO has given western Okahoma the all clear. It does not include the OKC area.

[venture]

Should see a severe warning for Northern Cleveland and Southern Oklahoma into Lincoln County.

Caddo/Grady storm hail size is also increasing again.

[venture]

KOCO has given western Okahoma the all clear. It does not include the OKC area.

Any place behind the dryline is in the clear at this point.

[venture]

Looks like we are now more in a heavy rain with some wind/small hail for the rest of the day. Hopefully it stays this way.

[blangtang]

great sunset tonight (wish i had a cam w/me!)

and scary looking clouds to the east!

[SoonerDave]

Venture, would appreciate your comments on something....

As I read the SPC tornado probability forecasts late last week, even into Sat morning, I saw a max probability in central Oklahoma of 5%. Yet I saw tweets about spotter activation and chasers crawling all over Oklahoma as if it were the middle of May and a PDS had been issued. Now, I was in Dallas most of the weekend, so had to follow most of this stuff from a distance, and while there were a few pretty intense storms in NW Texas/SW->Central Oklahoma, I think (and please correct me if I'm wrong) the actual result/total was zero tornadoes in Oklahoma.

I even saw a few tweets from some regular weather chasers that were expressing similar "confused" sentiments, eg "why is there all this stir" with a 5% SPC Tornado probability? Were there conflicting reports on the models, or concerns about things escalating dangerously if things broke just right? It just seemed like Saturday was a very, very strange day in the severe weather forecasting arena in the OK area, and wasn't sure if it was my perceptions, or if things really did break in a peculiar way..

[NoOkie]

Venture, would appreciate your comments on something....

As I read the SPC tornado probability forecasts late last week, even into Sat morning, I saw a max probability in central Oklahoma of 5%. Yet I saw tweets about spotter activation and chasers crawling all over Oklahoma as if it were the middle of May and a PDS had been issued. Now, I was in Dallas most of the weekend, so had to follow most of this stuff from a distance, and while there were a few pretty intense storms in NW Texas/SW->Central Oklahoma, I think (and please correct me if I'm wrong) the actual result/total was zero tornadoes in Oklahoma.

I even saw a few tweets from some regular weather chasers that were expressing similar "confused" sentiments, eg "why is there all this stir" with a 5% SPC Tornado probability? Were there conflicting reports on the models, or concerns about things escalating dangerously if things broke just right? It just seemed like Saturday was a very, very strange day in the severe weather forecasting arena in the OK area, and wasn't sure if it was my perceptions, or if things really did break in a peculiar way..

I know Reed Timmer was shouting all over the place about a tor-pocalypse coming down. May have had something to do with it.

[venture]

Venture, would appreciate your comments on something....

As I read the SPC tornado probability forecasts late last week, even into Sat morning, I saw a max probability in central Oklahoma of 5%. Yet I saw tweets about spotter activation and chasers crawling all over Oklahoma as if it were the middle of May and a PDS had been issued. Now, I was in Dallas most of the weekend, so had to follow most of this stuff from a distance, and while there were a few pretty intense storms in NW Texas/SW->Central Oklahoma, I think (and please correct me if I'm wrong) the actual result/total was zero tornadoes in Oklahoma.

I even saw a few tweets from some regular weather chasers that were expressing similar "confused" sentiments, eg "why is there all this stir" with a 5% SPC Tornado probability? Were there conflicting reports on the models, or concerns about things escalating dangerously if things broke just right? It just seemed like Saturday was a very, very strange day in the severe weather forecasting arena in the OK area, and wasn't sure if it was my perceptions, or if things really did break in a peculiar way..

The shear dynamics were there for some quick spin ups. Following the storms on radar we did have several storms that did develop pretty decent rotation but then fell apart quickly. It was a case of too much garbage activity early that was interacting with the storms trying to establish themselves. 5% tornado probabilities typically mean that there would be at least one or two spin ups. There were reports of funnels clouds but nothing reaching the ground. It had potential to be an active day, but nothing over the top. I think most of the stir was caused by people suffering from being without anything to chase for most of the summer.

Don't get me started on Reed. Worthless pile of...

[NoOkie]

Don't get me started on Reed. Worthless pile of...

I read a thread with some weather nerds and NWS guys on another forum. I think they summed up your unspoken thoughts pretty well. Since this is a family friendly forum, I won't repeat them. Would just be a bunch of ****'s anyway.

[Bunty]

Don't get me started on Reed. Worthless pile of...

Worthless pile of what? He's is supposed to be a meteorologist isn't he, which is more than can be said of his critics?

[venture]

Worthless pile of what? He's is supposed to be a meteorologist isn't he, which is more than can be said of his critics?

He put aside the science a long time ago for the cameras and spotlights.

[venture]

Freeze Watch is up...and hopefully we finally get a killing one to stop the bugs and keep me from having to mow again.

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
830 AM CDT THU OCT 25 2012


OKZ011>025-027>029-033>036-038-TXZ083-252130-
/O.CON.KOUN.FZ.A.0002.121027T0900Z-121027T1400Z/
MAJOR-GARFIELD-NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-
LOGAN-PAYNE-BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-COMANCHE-HARDEMAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY...CHEYENNE...
TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONGA...KINGFIS HER...GUTHRIE...
STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...ANADARKO...YUKON...
EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHICKASHA...PURCELL...
NORMAN...MOORE...HOLLIS...MANGUM...HOBART...ALTUS. ..LAWTON...
QUANAH...CHILLICOTHE
830 AM CDT THU OCT 25 2012


...FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...


A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.


* TEMPERATURE: LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM
28 TO 32 DEGREES ACROSS WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA...AND EXTREME WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.


* IMPACTS: THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE DAMAGE TO SOME
GARDEN PLANTS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


CONSIDER COVERING GARDEN PLANTS OR BRINGING POTTED PLANTS INDOORS.

[TechArch]

I agree. I am hoping my last mow will be the last one of this year.

[venture]

Slight Risk for Severe Storms is up today mainly west of I-35 KS border to OKC and then west of I-44 from OKC to TX border.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST SAT NOV 10 2012

VALID 101300Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY SSW INTO
PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
DEEP GRT BASIN TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY E TO THE RCKYS THIS
PERIOD...WHILE HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE ACROSS THE ERN THIRD OF THE
NATION. SHORTWAVE IMPULSE/JET STREAK NOW NEARING THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION SHOULD TURN NNE AND REACH THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN BY 12Z SUN
AS UPSTREAM SPEED MAX NOW IN CA CONTINUES SE INTO AZ/NM.

AT LWR LVLS...SFC LOW NOW OVER NE CO EXPECTED TO EDGE ESE INTO NW KS
BY THIS EVE...WHILE ANOTHER LOW EVOLVES NEAR ERN NEB AND DEVELOPS
NNE TO SE SD/NW IA. BY 12Z SUN...THE LOWS LIKELY WILL HAVE
CONSOLIDATED OVER N CNTRL MN...WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TRAILING
SSW INTO SE KS/N CNTRL OK/NW TX. THE FRONT...AND A LEE TROUGH/WIND
SHIFT AHEAD OF IT...WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSTMS...AND A
CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SVR WEATHER...THIS PERIOD.

...UPR MS/MID MO VLYS SSW INTO NW TX LATE TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
VERY STRONG...DEEP SSW TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPR TROUGH
WILL PROVIDE AMPLE SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED TSTMS LATER TODAY
THROUGH EARLY SUN...ALTHOUGH RATHER LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
AND EXPANSIVE EML CAP WILL LIMIT OVERALL MAGNITUDE AND
SPATIAL/TEMPORAL EXTENT OF SVR THREAT.

EXPECT THAT INITIAL STORMS WILL FORM LATE THIS AFTN ALONG LEE
TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE IN WRN/CNTRL KS SSW INTO ERN PORTIONS OF THE
TX/OK PANHANDLES AS HEATING AND APPROACH OF LEAD UPR IMPULSE SERVE
TO BREACH CAP. 500 TO 1000 J/KG MLCAPE...ABSENCE OF STRONG LINEAR
FORCING /I.E..STRONG DCVA/ AND 50-60 KT SSW TO SWLY CLOUD-LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
WITH A THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE
TORNADOES IN AXIS OF MODEST LOW-LVL MOISTURE /SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID TO UPR 50S F/.

WITH TIME...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND NNEWD BEYOND THE LEE TROUGH INTO
ERN NEB AND PERHAPS WRN/SRN MN AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES E/SE ACROSS
THE MID MO VLY. WEAK BUOYANCY SHOULD LIMIT STORM STRENGTH WITH NWD
EXTENT...ALTHOUGH ISOLD/POSSIBLY ELEVATED STRONG TO SVR ACTIVITY
COULD REACH AS FAR N AS NRN MN. OVER TIME...STORMS SHOULD TEND
TOWARD A FORCED LINEAR MODE ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY FROM NRN KS NWD...WITH A CONTINUED RISK FOR
LOCALLY DMGG WIND/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.

FARTHER S THROUGH KS INTO OK/NW TX...STORMS MAY REMAIN MIXED IN
MODE...WITH SOME SEMI-DISCRETE ACTIVITY POSSIBLY LINGERING THROUGH
LATE EVE. A MORE QUASI-LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED LATE TNGT AS COLD
FRONT ACCELERATES SEWD. AN ISOLD SVR THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PERSIST THROUGH EARLY SUN AS SOMEWHAT RICHER MOISTURE BEGINS TO
SPREAD N ACROSS THE RED RVR. OVERALL...HOWEVER...SVR THREAT SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER TNGT/EARLY SUN.

[kelroy55]

Pretty mild for Thanksgiving, what's the outlook for winter this year?

[Easy180]

Yep. Next week looks nice closing out a very nice November so wonder what December will bring

[venture]

Hopefully something more exciting. :-P

I can't remember the last time we had one of these threads, that covered 2 months, only get to the 2nd page. LOL