Oklahoma Weather Discussion - October/November 2012

[venture]

Summer is finally over, hopefully, and cold air is making its first run at the country. Chances of snow actually are already cropping up for parts of the country and furnaces might be going in Oklahoma sooner than expected. This period can still bring significant severe weather events as we transition into Winter.

This initial post will contain information, images, and links that can be used at any time. Images posted later through the thread may or may not be accurate on the day you are viewing them (check the post comments). Information contained in this thread should not be used as an alternative to weather radios, media, or other means of getting weather warnings/advisories.

Other Threads to Checkout
Severe Weather Trends: Severe Weather Trends
Oklahoma 2012 Tornado Tracking List: 2012 Oklahoma Tornado Tracking List


Current Conditions

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Day 1 Outlook	Tornado Outlook	Wind Outlook	Hail Outlook

Day 2 Outlook	Day 2 Probabilistic Outlook	Day 3 Outlook	Day 3 Probabilistic Outlook

Days 4 through 8 Outlook

Day 4	Day 5	Day 6	Day 7	Day 8

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Oklahoma Mesonet 24-inch Fractional Weather Index Image Image will appear blank overnight.

Oklahoma Mesonet Relative Humidity Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

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Oklahoma Mesonet Consecutive Days with Less Than 0.25" of Rain Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

SPC Fire Weather Outlooks
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Day 1	Day 2	Days 3 to 8

References

• COD Weather Analysis Page: COD Meteorology -- Surface and Upper Air Data
• NWS Norman Page: NWS
• Storm Prediction Center: Storm Prediction Center
• Oklahoma Mesonet: Mesonet | Home Page
• West Texas Mesonet: Texas Tech University : West Texas Mesonet
• Oklahoma Fire Weather: NWS Norman Fire Weather Forecasts
• Oklahoma Road Conditions: Road Conditions
• Severe Weather Values Reference Guide: The Southern Indiana Weather Spotter's Reference -or- SEVERE WEATHER INDICES PAGE
• TwisterData Model Page: TwisterData.com | Weather Data & Model Forecasts
• Earl Barker's Central US Model Page: Earl Barker's CENTRAL US Model Page
• NSSL WRF Model: NSSL Realtime WRF model Forecasts
• NSSL 4KM WRF Model Forecast Soundings: NSSL 4km WRF Forecast Soundings
• HRRR Rapid Refresh Model: HRRR Model Fields - Experimental

Tutorial: HOW TO VIEW DATA IN HRRR

Step 1) Go the main page: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/
Step 2) Click on 3km HRRR-CONUS hourly
Step 3) Under Domain select SC for South Central US
Step 4) Look at the time frames available. Usually if it isn't through Hour 06 yet, I'll just go up to Date and select the previous time.
Step 5) Depending on what you want to see you can click on the specific time or to loop all the times available you'll see a Check Mark under loop. You can click that to loop them all.

State Radar Images

WSR-88D Twin Lakes Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt	WSR-88D Frederick Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt
WSR-88D Vance AFB Base Reflectivity 0.5 deg tilt	Experimental Test Beds or Specialized Radars Some experimental products may not always be live or up to date. Phased Array Radar (Next Generation Test Bed) CASA Radar Deployment - SW Oklahoma
Multi-Radar Products Multi-Radar Hail Core Tracks (Past 120 min) Multi-Radar Maximum Expected Hail Size (MESH)	Multi-Radar Products Multi-Radar Rotation Tracks (Past 120 min) Multi-Radar Azimuthal Shear Composite

State Satellite Images

Oklahoma Mesonet Visible Satellite Image Image will appear blank overnight.

Oklahoma Mesonet IR Satellite Image Enhanced Colors - Blues are higher/colder cloud tops, Reds are warmer normally clear skies.

Oklahoma Mesonet Water Vapor Satellite Image Enhanced Colors - Dark gray/black is dry air, bright white/colorized is higher moisture content/colder air.

[venture]

Overall coming up in the extended has a good roller coast ride setup in temps. Warm the next day or two, then cool to cold, then back to warm. Saturday looks like the coldest day in the near term coming up. GFS keeps driving temps down. Looks like they will be falling through the 40s most of the day now. There will be some light precip around and GFS has also been indicating, for the last day now, of some light snow mixing in across Northern portions of OK. I would think this might end up being more so on the side of sleet if it happens.

Next major shot of precip is on Weds the 10th where some heavy rain could fall in the state (except for far NW). Rain and storms will linger through that following Sunday before drying out. Not looking at anything severe right now except maybe on Saturday and Sunday. Nothing major though from the looks of it...but it is way far out still.

[zachj7]

I'm loving the shots of cooler air, nothing like last summer/fall!

[jn1780]

I'm loving the shots of cooler air, nothing like last summer/fall!

Yes, wish it wouldn't rain or be cold for three weekends in a row though.

[ewoodard70]

Venture, what is the chance of rain Friday evening through late Friday night. I'm thinking of the high school games.

[venture]

Yes, wish it wouldn't rain or be cold for three weekends in a row though.

Agree. It should just snow and be done with it.

[venture]

Frost Advisory Saturday night...mainly West of I-35 and north of I-40. It includes Oklahoma County, but other low lying areas will probably see some as well. Maybe this will finally get the grass to stop growing. LOL

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
348 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012


OKZ004>026-051700-
/O.NEW.KOUN.FR.Y.0001.121007T0400Z-121007T1400Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...MEDFORD...
PONCA CITY...ARNETT...WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...ENID...PERRY ...
CHEYENNE...TALOGA...WEATHERFORD...CLINTON...WATONG A...
KINGFISHER...GUTHRIE...STILLWATER...ELK CITY...SAYRE...CORDELL...
ANADARKO...YUKON...EL RENO...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...CHANDLER
348 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012


...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CDT
SUNDAY...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A FROST
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 11 PM SATURDAY TO 9 AM CDT
SUNDAY.


* MINIMUM TEMPERATURE: 32 TO 36 DEGREES FAHRENHEIT.


* IMPACTS: DELICATE VEGETATION MAY BE DAMAGED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


MOVE SENSITIVE PLANTS INDOORS TO AVOID DAMAGE FROM THE FROST.

[adaniel]

Last night on KFOR Crazy Mike said something about heavy rain Thursday. I was planning on going to Dallas for OU/Texas Thursday night. What are you seeing in your crystal ball?

[ou48A]

Last night on KFOR Crazy Mike said something about heavy rain Thursday. I was planning on going to Dallas for OU/Texas Thursday night. What are you seeing in your crystal ball?

I hope Dallas clears out by game day,,, otherwise I don’t care. We & they still need rain.
At least it probably won’t be to hot.

[SoonerDave]

Last night on KFOR Crazy Mike said something about heavy rain Thursday. I was planning on going to Dallas for OU/Texas Thursday night. What are you seeing in your crystal ball?

Couple of forecasts I've read out of the DFW area are, at least for now, calling for nice weather Thursday and Friday, with a chance for a storm on Saturday. As Venture has mentioned, however, take anything much more than two or three days out with several large grains of salt.

[venture]

Will be posting a full update after the 12Z model runs. Severe risks going up the next few days and we could see a very active event somewhere in the Plains this weekend. Also look for some more swings in temps as we continue to change seasons into Winter.

Slight risk is already up for Friday in NW OK and the Panhandle. Saturday this could expand over much of Central & Eastern OK.

[venture]

Date	Hi	AM Low	Weather	24HR Precip Ending 8AM
Thursday, October 11, 2012	Near 80	Upper 50s	Isolated Rain/Storms - Mrgnl Svr	0.1
Friday, October 12, 2012	Mid 70s	Mid 60s	Scattered Storms - Some Severe	0.1 to 0.50
Saturday, October 13, 2012	Mid 70s	Mid 60s	Scattered Storms - Some Severe	0.1 to 0.50
Sunday, October 14, 2012	Upper 70	Mid 50s	Dry	0
Monday, October 15, 2012	Near 80	Upper 50s	Isolated Storms	< 0.1
Tuesday, October 16, 2012	Low 80s	Upper 60s	Dry	0
Wednesday, October 17, 2012	Mid 70s	Low 60s	Dry	0
Thursday, October 18, 2012	Upper 50s	Low 40s	Dry	0
Friday, October 19, 2012	Low 60s	Upper 40s	Dry	0
Saturday, October 20, 2012	Mid 60s	Low 50s	Isolated Showers	< 0.1
Sunday, October 21, 2012	Mid 50s	Near 50	Isolated Showers	<0.1 (South)
Monday, October 22, 2012	Low 50s	Upper 40s	Isolated Showers	<0.1 (South)
Tuesday, October 23, 2012	Upper 50s	Low 40s	Dry	0
Wednesday, October 24, 2012	Low 60s	Low 50s	Isolated Showers	< 0.1
Thursday, October 25, 2012	Mid 60s	Mid 50s	Isolated Showers	< 0.1 (North)
Friday, October 26, 2012	N/A	Near 60	N/A	N/A

[venture]

Slight Risk in the state the next 3 days. Today - Northern OK. Tomorrow - NW OK. Saturday - Central/Eastern OK.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS KS/OK BORDER AREA TO
EXTREME WRN PORTIONS KY/TN...

...SYNOPSIS...
IN MID-UPPER LEVELS...SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN FCST THROUGH PERIOD OVER
PORTIONS WRN/CENTRAL CONUS...RELATED TO PRONOUNCED CYCLONE ALOFT NOW
LOCATED INVOF CENTRAL CA COASTAL WATERS. ASSOCIATED LOW IS FCST TO
PIVOT SEWD JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH FIRST HALF OF PERIOD...THEN MOVE
ASHORE AROUND 12/00Z. CYCLONE WILL TURN ENEWD THROUGH REMAINDER
PERIOD...ITS CENTER REACHING SERN SIERRAS BY 12/12Z. STG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER LOWER GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR MID-ATLC
REGIONS SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD OVER ERN NEW ENGLAND BY START OF
PERIOD. HOWEVER...BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED TODAY
OVER UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES REGIONS AS ANOTHER PERTURBATION --
NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER ERN MB AND SRN/CENTRAL
SK -- MOVES ESEWD ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES AND AMPLIFIES. RELATED
TROUGH SHOULD REACH ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND SRN ONT BY 12/12Z.

AT SFC...QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE NOW OVER ERN/CENTRAL/SWRN TX
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NWD AS WARM FRONT THROUGH PERIOD...REACHING
PORTIONS WRN/SRN AR AND NERN OK/SERN KS BY 12/00Z. WRN SEGMENT OF
THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE OVERTAKEN ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN KS BY COLD FRONT
NOW MOVING SEWD OVER SD. DIFFUSE DRYLINE SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG NWRN
RIM OF GULF RETURN-FLOW DURING DAY...EXTENDING FROM TX PANHANDLE
SSWWD OVER SERN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK FRONTAL-WAVE LOW MAY
DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT BETWEEN WARM-FRONTAL INTERSECTION AND
DRYLINE OVERNIGHT...AS COLD FRONT DECELERATES OVER NRN OK AND TX
PANHANDLE.

...KS/OK BORDER AREA TO EXTREME WRN PORTIONS KY/TN...
SCATTERED TSTMS ARE FCST TO DEVELOP DURING 12/03Z-12/012Z TIME FRAME
IN W-E OR WNW-ESE ALIGNED CORRIDOR PARALLEL TO AND NEAR SFC FRONTAL
ZONE. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
SUPPORTED BY SWATH OF 30-40 KT 850-MB SWLYS AND WARM FRONTAL
FORCING...ALONG WITH RELATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC
ASCENT TO LFC. FAVORABLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDERLAIN BY
INCREASING THETAE WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS
THIS CORRIDOR...AMIDST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. THIS
REGION ALSO SHOULD EXPERIENCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BENEATH
RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF ROUGHLY 100-KT 250-MB JET MAX SHIFTING
ESEWD ACROSS NRN MO/IL/INDIANA. INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE
EVENING OVER OZARKS REGION AND MOVE EWD...WITH DISCRETE/BACKBUILDING
EVOLUTION FARTHER W ACROSS KS/OK BORDER REGION OVERNIGHT.
ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THIS REGION FROM DIURNAL/DRYLINE
CONVECTIVE REGIME...THOUGH THAT POTENTIAL IS MORE CONDITIONAL.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1236 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRI/FRI NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
TO THE SOUTH OF A BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC BRANCH OF STRONGER
WESTERLIES...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A LINGERING CYCLONIC BRANCH
CURVING OFF THE PACIFIC...THROUGH CALIFORNIA...INTO THE INTERIOR
U.S. DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WITHIN THIS SOUTHERN STREAM...THE
REMNANT CLOSED LOW...NOW NEAR THE CALIFORNIA COAST...APPEARS LIKELY
TO FINALLY ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...REACHING
THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY. AS
THIS OCCURS...A COLD SURFACE HIGH... INITIALLY CENTERED OVER THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BUT WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...IS EXPECTED TO RETREAT
EASTWARD...GIVING WAY TO A DEVELOPING LEE SURFACE TROUGH...AND
EVENTUALLY SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS. 11/00Z NAM...GFS AND
ECMWF ALL APPEAR INCREASINGLY SIMILAR... INDICATING STRONGER SURFACE
PRESSURE FALLS BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY
EVENING. LOW PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO DEEPEN ALONG A RETREATING
SURFACE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT.


THE FRONTAL ZONE...INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE REGION INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...MAY BE PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AT 12Z FRIDAY. BUT
THIS IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN/DIMINISH AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
RISE DOWNSTREAM OF THE CLOSED LOW...AND SUPPORTING LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WEAKENS. NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
LATER IN THE DAY IS THEN EXPECTED TO FOCUS IN THE PRESENCE OF
STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION...NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WARM FRONT AND THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS...THEN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG THE STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FRIDAY
BENEATH THE MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOSED
LOW...ACROSS LARGE PORTION OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
BOUNDARY LAYER MODIFICATION OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS REMAINS THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHALLOW COOL/STABLE NEAR
SURFACE LAYER MAY PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS...AND AREAS
NORTHWARD...THROUGH THE DAY...AND PERHAPS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT DAYTIME
HEATING BENEATH AT LEAST MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG ...WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS AT OR ABOVE 60F.

AS A CYCLONIC 70+ KT 500 MB JET STREAK NOSES ACROSS THE
ROCKIES...TOWARD THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AND STRENGTHENING SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. THIS PROBABLY WILL INCLUDE
A FEW SUPERCELLS...BOTH ALONG THE SLOWLY EASTWARD ADVANCING DRY LINE
AND NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT ACROSS THE PANHANDLE REGION.
ENLARGING CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS SEEMS LIKELY TO SUPPORT AT LEAST
THE RISK FOR TORNADOES. OTHERWISE...UNLESS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZES MORE THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...LARGE HAIL MAY BECOME
THE MORE PROMINENT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT DURING THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE MOST VIGOROUS STORMS SPREAD WITH
STRONGER LARGE SCALE FORCING OR THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS
PARTS OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL KANSAS...PERHAPS SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SAT INTO SAT NIGHT ACROSS PARTS
OF THE MID/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT SPLIT BELTS OF STRONGER WESTERLIES WILL BEGIN
TO CONSOLIDATE ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD...AS
THE REMNANT SOUTHERN STREAM CLOSED LOW CONTINUES ITS EAST
NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATION OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. VARIABILITY IS
INCREASING AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
FEATURE...FROM WHICH A COUPLE OF MORE DISTINCT SMALLER SCALE
IMPULSES COULD EMERGE AS IT PROGRESSES EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. NAM/SREF APPEAR TO MAINTAIN THE
INITIAL CIRCULATION FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
SATURDAY AS THE PRIMARY UPPER IMPULSE...AND ACCELERATE IT EASTWARD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES BY 12Z SUNDAY...MUCH AS GENERALLY HAS
BEEN INDICATED BY MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE THE PAST FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE GFS SUGGESTS THAT A DISTINCT SECONDARY
IMPULSE...TRAILING TO THE SOUTHWEST...MAY BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT
IMPULSE SATURDAY...AS IT LIFTS EAST OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...ACROSS
THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
ECMWF ALSO NOW IS MORE SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING
MAY DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE INITIAL IMPULSE...BUT NORTH OF THAT OF THE
GFS.

REGARDLESS...ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT OF A
SUB-1000 MB SURFACE LOW...GENERALLY EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI
VALLEY TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS FEATURE...AND SOUTHWARD AHEAD OF THE TRAILING COLD FRONT/DRY
LINE ADVANCING EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...A BROAD
SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN FROM 50-70
KT...BENEATH A 70+ KT SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB JET. THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AIR /PRECIPITABLE WATER UP AROUND 1.5+ INCHES/...WITH 60F+
SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING PERHAPS CONSIDERABLE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

...UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WARM SECTOR DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW
FIELDS/SHEAR AND FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...SEVERE
POTENTIAL ON SATURDAY MAY ULTIMATELY BE HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY
INDICATED BY THE SLIGHT RISK CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK. CONDITIONS MOST
SUPPORTIVE OF THIS POTENTIAL STILL APPEAR MOST PROBABLE TO EVOLVE
FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS THROUGH CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI...IOWA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA...SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AND NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS.
HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS CONCERNING THE DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION THAT MAY OCCUR...DUE TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF CONSIDERABLE EARLY PERIOD CONVECTION WHICH MAY SLOW
OR INHIBIT INSOLATION. COUPLED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL
VARIABILITY...TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS FOR HIGHER SEVERE
PROBABILITIES. BUT A SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE DAMAGING WIND EVENT
APPEARS A POSSIBILITY. IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT
CONDITIONS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS.

[venture]

Slight Risk area has been expanded for today. Roughly I-40 and north through the state, except for the Western 1/3rd. Main threat today is hail.

...SRN KS INTO CENTRAL OK AND EWD TO EXTREME WRN PORTIONS KY/TN...
LATEST MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT INDICATING SCATTERED TSTMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING 12/03Z-12/12Z TIME FRAME IN A W-E ALIGNED
CORRIDOR PARALLEL TO AND NEAR SURFACE WARM FRONT. GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED FORECAST OF THIS BOUNDARY BEING A LITTLE SWD INTO
CENTRAL OK...THE SLIGHT RISK/15 PERCENT SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITY HAVE
BEEN EXPANDED SWD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE SUPPORTED BY SWATH OF 30-40
KT 850-MB SWLYS AND WARM FRONTAL FORCING...ALONG WITH RELATED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO LFC. THIS REGION ALSO
WILL EXPERIENCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT BENEATH RIGHT-ENTRANCE REGION OF
ROUGHLY 100-KT 250-MB JET MAX SHIFTING ESEWD ACROSS NRN MO/IL/
INDIANA. FAVORABLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP INCREASING THETAE
WILL YIELD MUCAPE VALUES 1000-2000 J/KG ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK
AREA...AMIDST 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES. INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE EVENING OVER OZARKS REGION AND MOVE
EWD...WITH DISCRETE/ BACKBUILDING EVOLUTION FARTHER W ACROSS SRN KS
INTO NRN/CENTRAL OK REGION OVERNIGHT AS A SSWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS FROM
W TX INTO WRN/CENTRAL OK. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY MOVE INTO THIS
REGION FROM DIURNAL/DRYLINE CONVECTIVE REGIME...THOUGH THAT
POTENTIAL REMAINS MORE CONDITIONAL.

[disinfected]

Pretty impressive out there this morning. Did not expect any of this waking up.

[venture]

Tomorrow could be a very active severe weather day. We are in our 2nd severe weather season right now, so not unusual. Highest risk area will be the OKC Metro area (the entire area...so essentially Chickasha/Purcell/Seminole and northward) back to the North and Northeast.

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT FRI OCT 12 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A BROAD PORTION OF THE
CENTRAL U.S....

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT OUT OF
THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS PERIOD...WITH
ACCOMPANYING FASTER FLOW FIELD ALSO SPREADING EWD WITH TIME.
MEANWHILE...RIDGING ALOFT IS PROGGED EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH --
AFFECTING BOTH THE SWRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. DURING THE
PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PLAINS WITH
TIME AS THE UPPER SYSTEM ADVANCES...TRAILING FROM A SOMEWHAT
ILL-DEFINED LOW EXPECTED TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
REGION THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS LOW/FRONT WILL
BE A FOCUS FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AND ACCOMPANYING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL.

...THE CENTRAL CONUS...
A COMPLEX SCENARIO CONTINUES TO EVOLVE FOR THE DAY 2 PERIOD...WITH
SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM PROGRESSION --
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS -- COMBINING WITH
QUESTIONS REGARDING BOUNDARY LAYER EVOLUTION TO RESULT IN FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY REGARDING BOTH LOCATION AND DEGREE OF SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF W TX NEWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION EARLY.
THIS PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER -- PARTICULARLY FROM THE MID MO
VALLEY REGION NEWD -- MAY HINDER APPRECIABLE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THUS -- DESPITE A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT...DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED SEVERE RISK REMAINS IN
QUESTION...SUPPORTING A SWWD SHIFT IN SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY
THIS FORECAST.

WHILE ONGOING CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY AFFECT MORE SRN
PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA AS WELL...HINTS OF POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DESTABILIZATION BEHIND AN INITIAL BAND OF CONVECTION ARE EVIDENT --
PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE HIGHER THETA-E BOUNDARY LAYER EXPECTED IN
THIS AREA. GIVEN THIS POTENTIAL...AND A BACKGROUND WIND FIELD
SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS...AN AFTERNOON/EVENING
INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT FROM NWRN MO/ERN KS SWWD INTO WRN N TX
REMAINS POSSIBLE. WHILE DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL STORM MODE
ACROSS THIS REGION ARE UNCERTAIN...THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ALONG WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES EXISTS.

FARTHER NE...LIKELIHOOD FOR A MORE MOIST ADIABATIC LOWER AND MIDDLE
TROPOSPHERE ALONG WITH A MORE VEERED/SWLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FIELD
SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL IN
THIS REGION.

AS CONVECTION SHIFTS EWD OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE PROGRESSING
SYNOPTIC-SCALE SYSTEM...EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SEVERE THREAT
CORRESPONDING TO THE DIURNALLY STABILIZING AIRMASS -- PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE RISK AREA.

..GOSS.. 10/12/2012

[venture]

Slight risk today for the entire area. We are also covered with a 5% tornado risk as well, but main threats should be large hail and winds near 70 mph. Conditions will be somewhat favorable to quick spins up and rotating storms...so don't be shock if we add a few tornadoes to the tally today. Stay away, keep the weather radios on, and enjoy the weekend.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1232 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO
PORTIONS UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...
SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN NOW OVER WRN CONUS IS FCST TO DEAMPLIFY THROUGH
PERIOD. WELL-DEFINED MID-UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE -- INITIALLY OVER ERN
UT/WRN CO REGION -- IS FCST TO MOVE ENEWD ACROSS CO BY START OF
PERIOD...DEVOLVING TO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CENTRAL PLAINS.
BY 14/00Z...EXPECT HIGH-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH SLGT
POSITIVE TILT...FROM S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB ACROSS WRN KS...TX
PANHANDLE...AND TX SOUTH-PLAINS REGION. THIS PERTURBATION WILL
BECOME MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED WITH TIME THEREAFTER...BUT ALSO...WILL
LINK WITH NRN-STREAM FLOW BELT AND DEAMPLIFY. TROUGH SHOULD BE
CROSSING WRN OZARKS...WRN MO...AND IA BY 14/12Z.

AT SFC...PAC COLD FRONT IS FCST TO MOVE EWD OUT OF ROCKIES...WITH
ATTACHED FRONTAL-WAVE LOW OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA REGION BY 14/00Z...AND
FRONT SWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL KS...NWRN OK AND TRANS-PECOS AREA OF W
TX. BY LATE AFTERNOON...DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT PAC FRONT
OBLIQUELY OVER NWRN OR WRN OK...AND EXTEND SSWWD ACROSS NW TX AND
PERMIAN BASIN REGION. DRYLINE AND PAC FRONT SHOULD MERGE THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD. MEANWHILE...DIFFUSE WARM FRONT -- NOW LOCATED
OVER PORTIONS CENTRAL/SRN OK AND SRN AR -- IS FCST TO MOVE OR
REDEVELOP NWD RAPIDLY ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY REGION EARLY IN PERIOD.
WARM FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SFC LOW ACROSS NRN IA AND SRN WI BY
14/00Z. BY END OF PERIOD...EXPECT PRIMARY SFC LOW OVER NWRN IL/SWRN
WI REGION...WITH WARM FRONT ENEWD OVER LOWER MI...AND COLD FRONT
OVER NRN/WRN MO...ERN OK...AND W-CENTRAL TX.

...PORTIONS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
BAND OF TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT START OF PERIOD FROM PORTIONS
W-CENTRAL TX NNEWD ACROSS NW TX AND WRN OK...INTO PORTIONS CENTRAL
KS AND PERHAPS FARTHER NE. RELATED ANVIL SHIELD WILL SUBDUE PACE OF
INSOLATION IN ITS INFLOW REGION. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF SLOW SFC
HEATING AND BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ADVECTION SHOULD YIELD FAVORABLY
LARGE BUOYANCY TO SUPPORT GROWING SVR THREAT WITH TIME THROUGHOUT
DAYLIGHT HOURS...AS BAND MOVES EWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA.
BACKBUILDING WITH TIME ALSO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/SW
TX ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE...PERHAPS AS FAR S AS RIO GRANDE.
FURTHERMORE...SOME PROGS SUGGEST MID-LATE AFTERNOON QUASI-LINEAR
TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEHIND INITIAL ACTIVITY AND ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD
FRONT OVER PORTIONS KS/NWRN OK. WIDTH AND MAGNITUDE OF ANY
DESTABILIZATION CORRIDOR BEHIND INITIAL/PRIMARY TSTM BAND IS QUITE
QUESTIONABLE ATTM...THOUGH THIS AREA GENERALLY IS COVERED BY
UNCONDITIONAL...MRGL TO SLGT-RISK LEVEL PROBABILITIES THAT ALREADY
ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER TSTMS.

PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY OF THE ABOVE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING
GUSTS...WITH QUASI-LINEAR MODES DOMINANT FOR MOST OF PERIOD.
NONETHELESS...FAVORABLE DEEP SHEAR AND POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST A FEW
SUPERCELLS SUGGESTS CATEGORICAL HAIL RISK. ANY SUCH
SUPERCELLS...ALONG WITH EMBEDDED QLCS CIRCULATIONS...COLLECTIVELY
OFFER RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED TORNADO POTENTIAL AT LEAST BETWEEN NW TX
AND WRN MO...WHERE ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE MOST LIKELY TO
JUXTAPOSE WITH FAVORABLE DESTABILIZATION. TORNADO THREAT FARTHER NE
AND SW...WHILE NONZERO...IS MORE CONDITIONAL.

OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH FROM LATE EVENING ONWARD OVER
MOST OF THIS AREA AS BOUNDARY LAYER SLOWLY STABILIZES...AND AS
PRIMARY MID-UPPER WAVE DEAMPLIFIES. THREAT MAY PERSIST LONGEST
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS S TX INTO N-CENTRAL/NE TX AND SERN
OK...WHERE LOW-LEVEL THETAE WILL REMAIN HIGHEST IN ABSENCE OF
SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING.

...NRN MO/ERN NEB TO SWRN WI...NWRN IL...
SCATTERED TSTMS MAY MOVE NEWD ACROSS THIS REGION EARLY IN
PERIOD...PERHAPS AS EXTENSION OF ACTIVITY NOW CROSSING PORTIONS
CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS. SOME ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST OR REDEVELOP
INTO AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ADVECTION COULD
INTRODUCE SFC-BASED PARCELS TO CONVECTIVE INFLOW REGION.
SEPARATE/NNE-SSW ALIGNED BELT OF TSTMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF SFC
COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS MO/IA AND SHIFT EWD.

AFTERNOON/EVENING WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SVR OVER WARM
SECTOR IN THIS REGION...ALBEIT EXHIBITING SOME BACKING WITH HEIGHT
IN MIDLEVELS COMMON TO QUASI-LINEAR EVENTS. FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR...ALONG WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS
INVOF WARM FRONT AND SFC LOW. MOST PROGS ALSO INDICATE SOME DEGREE
OF SUFFICIENT SFC-BASED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THIS REGION...E.G.
1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE PREDICTED BY NAM. HOWEVER...SUBSTANTIAL
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE PRECLUDED BY PRECURSORY PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER MOVING INTO THIS REGION FROM UPSHEAR AREAS OF CENTRAL PLAINS
DURING MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY
ENHANCED SVR WIND POTENTIAL YET MAY DEVELOP POLEWARD OF PRESENT 30%
LINE...EXTENT/TIMING REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN TO EXTEND THAT
PROBABILITY FARTHER NNE ATTM.

..EDWARDS/ROGERS.. 10/13/2012

[venture]

Early morning crapvection is underway. Most of the stuff now is well elevated and may only pose a hail threat here and there. HRRR guidance has this activity continuing, and increasing, over the next 3-4 hours and moving mainly into Eastern OK. Then by late afternoon additional convection will fire along the dryline/front into Central OK. This activity is expected to be surface based and could pose an increasing tornado threat depending on how worked over the atmosphere from the morning garbage. SPC is citing a possible upgrade to Moderate Risk today if things this morning stay under control and don't get very widespread.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0752 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VALID 131300Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST
AND MID MO VALLEY TO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...

...SYNOPSIS...

THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD ARE A SIGNIFICANT
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED MIDLEVEL JET STREAK /12Z ABQ
SOUNDING SAMPLED 90-95 KT WINDS JUST ABOVE 500 MB/ WHICH WILL
PROGRESS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO WRN PARTS OF TX/OK BY 14/00Z
BEFORE REACHING THE OZARKS BY 14/12Z. THE PROGRESSION OF THIS
VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE INTENSIFICATION AND
CONCOMITANT TRANSITION FROM A POSITIVE TO NEUTRAL TILT OF
BROADER-SCALE TROUGH TRANSLATING THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TOWARD
THE MID MS VALLEY.

IN THE LOW LEVELS...THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE INITIALLY OVER THE
CNTRL DAKOTAS WILL DEVELOP SWD INTO S-CNTRL NEB/N-CNTRL KS BY 14/00Z
BEFORE SHIFTING NEWD INTO E-CNTRL IA BY 14/12Z. THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A PACIFIC FRONT WHICH IS FORECAST TO
EXTEND SSWWD THROUGH CNTRL KS/WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL AND SWRN TX BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...BEFORE ADVANCING EWD INTO THE OZARK
PLATEAU AND CNTRL TX BY SUNDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT
FRONT...PRECEDING THE MAIN SURFACE LOW...WILL PROGRESS NEWD THROUGH
THE LOWER MO VALLEY.

...CNTRL KS INTO WRN MO AND SWD INTO NRN TX TODAY INTO TONIGHT...

AN APPARENT LOW-LATITUDE...LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSE OVER W-CNTRL TX IS
CONTRIBUTING TO A RECENT INCREASE IN ELEVATED CONVECTION FROM THE
ERN TX PNHDL INTO THE TX BIG COUNTRY AND CONCHO VALLEY. AND IT
APPEARS THAT THE INFLUENCE OF THIS PERTURBATION MAY BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE EARLY ONSET OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND N
TX AS DEPICTED BY VARIOUS CONVECTION-ALLOWING AND MESOSCALE MODELS.
THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS EARLY DAY CONVECTION DEVELOPS REMAINS
UNCERTAIN...THOUGH MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS COULD HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL...NEGATIVE IMPACT ON SUBSEQUENT STORM FORMATION LATER
TODAY ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT/DRYLINE. MOREOVER...DOMINANT
CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
REMAINS UNCLEAR...FURTHER BREEDING UNCERTAINTY INTO THE FORECAST.

BASED ON THE 12Z OUN SOUNDING...IT APPEARS THAT ANY EARLY DAY
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED IN NATURE AND BASED AROUND 700
MB. HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A POTENTIALLY MORE SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LARGELY BE MODULATED BY THE DEGREE OF
ELEVATED STORMS THAT DEVELOP THIS MORNING. THERE IS A HIGH
CERTAINTY THAT STORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR ALONG THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC
FRONT BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK INTO NWRN TX AS THE
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAK MOVE INTO THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. THE NRN BOUND OF THIS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
DICTATED BY DEGREE TO WHICH THE AIR MASS CAN RECOVER INTO KS.

MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE MODES ARE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND
LINE SEGMENTS WITH AN ASSOCIATED RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES. SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A QLCS IS
ANTICIPATED WITH A DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT
SPREADING EWD INTO WRN PORTIONS OF THE OZARK PLATEAU THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT.

SHOULD EARLY DAY STORM COVERAGE REMAIN RELATIVELY ISOLATED WITH
LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WARM SECTOR...FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER CNTRL OK
VALID LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A
GREATER SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT THAN IS INDICATED BY CURRENT
TORNADO AND HAIL PROBABILITIES. TRENDS WILL CLOSELY BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE UPGRADE IN PROBABILITIES IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.

[venture]

Tornado Watch has been issued.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

TORNADO WATCH 661 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC003-011-015-017-027-031-033-039-043-047-049-051-053-055-065-
067-071-073-075-083-087-093-103-109-137-141-149-151-140200-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0661.121013T1800Z-121014T0200Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA BLAINE CADDO
CANADIAN CLEVELAND COMANCHE
COTTON CUSTER DEWEY
GARFIELD GARVIN GRADY
GRANT GREER JACKSON
JEFFERSON KAY KINGFISHER
KIOWA LOGAN MAJOR
MCCLAIN NOBLE OKLAHOMA
STEPHENS TILLMAN WA****A
WOODS

[jn1780]

Supercells are firing out west now near Altus, but Im guessing the "crapvection" occurring in central Oklahoma will end the talk of a higher end severe weather event?

[venture]

Tornadoes

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes	Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes	Mod (30%)

Wind

Probability of 10 or more severe wind events	Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots	Mod (30%)

Hail

Probability of 10 or more severe hail events	Mod (60%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches	Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind

Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 661
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF
ALVA OKLAHOMA TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ABILENE TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS FROM NW TX INTO WRN OK...ALONG AND JUST E OF THE SURFACE
COLD FRONT. A NARROW ZONE OF SURFACE HEATING TO THE W OF THE
ONGOING CONVECTION FROM N TX INTO CENTRAL OK...AND BOUNDARY LAYER
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG.
DEEP-LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR ARE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND THE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE A MIX OF
SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS AND LINE SEGMENTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE DISCRETE STORMS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE OF A THREAT LATER AS STORMS POTENTIALLY EVOLVE INTO A
MORE SOLID LINE CLOSER TO I-35 IN OK.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.

[venture]

Supercells are firing out west now near Altus, but Im guessing the "crapvection" occurring in central Oklahoma will end the talk of a higher end severe weather event?

Correct. The junk is moving out now and the main show is popping out west now. First candidate for severe weather appears to be the cell in Jackson County.

[venture]

Jackson County is now severe warned.

FYI...The Frederick radar is down still due to Dual-Pol upgrades. So we won't be able to rely on it for today.

[venture]

Severe storm in Jackson County starting to take on an interesting shape. Hard to get a good look with no radar right by it, but might need to be watched. Especially with it in a tail end charlie setup.

Line from Kiowa to Caddo and Wa$hita counties is now severe as well. Additional isolated storms popping up that need to be watched.

[venture]

Spotter reports of a wall cloud with the storm near Albert moving towards Binger, Lookeba, and Hinton. There is some rotation south of there east of Alfalfa south of Eakley (this is SW of the reported non-rotating wall cloud). The line is segmenting some so we need to watch things. Storm near Mountain Park is also showing some decent inflow developing.