Oklahoma Weather Discussion - August/September 2012

[venture]

No rain in Norman, but a lot of smoke before sunset.

[Easy180]

Caught a decent little rain storm in SE Moore

[ShiroiHikari]

I don't think we got any rain here in east Norman, but it sure did cool off. And it was dusty as heck this afternoon when the wind picked up.

[Mel]

Nice day. Loving this cool front. I think my a/c actually shut off a few times.

[Easy180]

Just perused Accuweather's long term forecast and it showed rain chances for just two days through early October...Know going out that long isn't super accurate but it's definitely not encouraging

[venture]

Just perused Accuweather's long term forecast and it showed rain chances for just two days through early October...Know going out that long isn't super accurate but it's definitely not encouraging

It should be encouraging though that the site is Accuweather which doesn't really have the best reputation.

[Mel]

State Fair is coming. We will get more rain.

[venture]

Fire Weather Watch for tomorrow over North Central and NW OK. Don't be shocked if it gets extended down south a bit more. Looks like our higher fire day will be on Wednesday.

[venture]

Red Flag Warning today generally north of I-40. Very High Fire damage south of I-40, so don't be shocked if the warning is extended south should things evolve differently (higher wind/dryer air).

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
317 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012


...VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED
OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...


.HOT TEMPERATURES AND VERY LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY VALUES TODAY
WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PRODUCE VERY HIGH TO
EXTREME FIRE DANGER.


OKZ008-013>020-111630-
/O.UPG.KOUN.FW.A.0011.120911T1700Z-120912T0100Z/
/O.EXA.KOUN.FW.W.0015.120911T1700Z-120912T0100Z/
KAY-NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
317 AM CDT TUE SEP 11 2012


...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR NORTHERN OKLAOMA...


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS
EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.


* WIND...SOUTHERLY 20 TO 25 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.


* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY 15 TO 20 PERCENT.


* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS 93 TO 97 DEGREES.


* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
A STATEWIDE BURNING BAN CONTINUES FOR OKLAHOMA. REFRAIN FROM
ALL OTHER OUTDOOR ACTIVITY THAT COULD START WILDFIRES.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

[venture]

Haven't done one in awhile, but the GFS this morning got my attention.

Remember things can be very volatile at the end of its forecast window so don't write anything in stone. This is also only one model out of several used for forecasting. Does appear to be some decent cold fronts making a charge at the state the next few weeks. Severe weather chances also make a return, but nothing standing out as a major day yet.

Date	Hi	Low	Weather	Central OK Precip
Tuesday, September 11, 2012	Mid 90s	-	Dry/Fire Danger	0
Wednesday, September 12, 2012	Mid 90s	Mid 60s	Dry/Fire Danger	0
Thursday, September 13, 2012	~ 90	Mid 60s	Storms, Some severe S of I-44	0.10 to 0.20
Friday, September 14, 2012	Low 70s	Upper 50s	Rain and Storms	0.50 to 1.00
Saturday, September 15, 2012	Near 80	Upper 50s	Chance of Rain	Trace to 0.10
Sunday, September 16, 2012	Low 80s	Upper 50s	Dry	0
Monday, September 17, 2012	Low 80s	Low 60s	Storms	0.1 to 0.50
Tuesday, September 18, 2012	Mid 70s	Mid 60s	Storms	0.1 to 1.0
Wednesday, September 19, 2012	Low 70s	Low 50s	Dry	0
Thursday, September 20, 2012	Mid 80s	Mid 60s	Isolated storms, some severe	0.05 to 0.1
Friday, September 21, 2012	Mid 80s	Near 70	Isolated storms, some severe	0.05 to 0.1
Saturday, September 22, 2012	Low 90s	Upper 60s	Isolated storms	Trace to 0.05
Sunday, September 23, 2012	Mid 70s	Low 70s	Isolated storms	Trace to 0.10
Monday, September 24, 2012	Near 60	Low 50s	Dry	0
Tuesday, September 25, 2012	Upper 60s	Upper 40s	Dry	0
Wednesday, September 26, 2012	Mid 60s	Near 40	Dry	0

[BoulderSooner]

that is a great forecast

[Dubya61]

Venture79, do you have access to a map that shows Oklahoma drought conditions? When you do a thread for October, would you include that info, if you can? Preferably, one that updates like all those at the beginning of your monthly threads.

[Bunty]

If current Oklahoma drought map isn't available here, you can see it as well as the national drought map with some scrolling here: Oklahoma Drought Monitor

[venture]

Venture79, do you have access to a map that shows Oklahoma drought conditions? When you do a thread for October, would you include that info, if you can? Preferably, one that updates like all those at the beginning of your monthly threads.

Yeah I'll get it added in for the next thread update. Since it apparently is never going away. LOL

[bucktalk]

Haven't done one in awhile, but the GFS this morning got my attention.

Remember things can be very volatile at the end of its forecast window so don't write anything in stone. This is also only one model out of several used for forecasting. Does appear to be some decent cold fronts making a charge at the state the next few weeks. Severe weather chances also make a return, but nothing standing out as a major day yet.

Date	Hi	Low	Weather	Central OK Precip
Tuesday, September 11, 2012	Mid 90s	-	Dry/Fire Danger	0
Wednesday, September 12, 2012	Mid 90s	Mid 60s	Dry/Fire Danger	0
Thursday, September 13, 2012	~ 90	Mid 60s	Storms, Some severe S of I-44	0.10 to 0.20
Friday, September 14, 2012	Low 70s	Upper 50s	Rain and Storms	0.50 to 1.00
Saturday, September 15, 2012	Near 80	Upper 50s	Chance of Rain	Trace to 0.10
Sunday, September 16, 2012	Low 80s	Upper 50s	Dry	0
Monday, September 17, 2012	Low 80s	Low 60s	Storms	0.1 to 0.50
Tuesday, September 18, 2012	Mid 70s	Mid 60s	Storms	0.1 to 1.0
Wednesday, September 19, 2012	Low 70s	Low 50s	Dry	0
Thursday, September 20, 2012	Mid 80s	Mid 60s	Isolated storms, some severe	0.05 to 0.1
Friday, September 21, 2012	Mid 80s	Near 70	Isolated storms, some severe	0.05 to 0.1
Saturday, September 22, 2012	Low 90s	Upper 60s	Isolated storms	Trace to 0.05
Sunday, September 23, 2012	Mid 70s	Low 70s	Isolated storms	Trace to 0.10
Monday, September 24, 2012	Near 60	Low 50s	Dry	0
Tuesday, September 25, 2012	Upper 60s	Upper 40s	Dry	0
Wednesday, September 26, 2012	Mid 60s	Near 40	Dry	0

Not about to hold you to this request....BUT....I'm part of an outdoor event on Friday Oct. 6 in the evening. What's your best prediction for that evening?

[Dubya61]

So, in order to combat drought, should we schedule an extra iteration of the fair or arts festival in the known heat dome periods?

[venture]

So, in order to combat drought, should we schedule an extra iteration of the fair or arts festival in the known heat dome periods?

I would. Since it always seems to work...every single year.

[venture]

Not about to hold you to this request....BUT....I'm part of an outdoor event on Friday Oct. 6 in the evening. What's your best prediction for that evening?

Ask me in 2 weeks. LOL Most models don't even go out that far.

[jn1780]

Ask me in 2 weeks. LOL Most models don't even go out that far.

Im sure it would be just as accurate as accuweather predicting the weekend forecast. lol

[venture]

Significant fire weather day possible tomorrow...

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
434 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012


...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON...


.STRONG... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRES.


OKZ004-005-009>011-014>018-021>025-027>029-033>041-044>046-050-
231745-
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.A.0012.120924T1700Z-120925T0100Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-
KINGFISHER-BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-
GARVIN-MURRAY-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-
434 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012


...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR WINDY... HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* WIND...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH... WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH.


* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT.


* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS NEAR 95 DEGREES.


* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
A BURN BAN REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.


MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

[Achilleslastand]

Significant fire weather day possible tomorrow...

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
434 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012


...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON...


.STRONG... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRES.


OKZ004-005-009>011-014>018-021>025-027>029-033>041-044>046-050-
231745-
/O.CON.KOUN.FW.A.0012.120924T1700Z-120925T0100Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-
KINGFISHER-BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-
GARVIN-MURRAY-COTTON-JEFFERSON-CARTER-LOVE-
434 AM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012


...FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR WINDY... HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...


* WIND...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH... WITH GUSTS UP TO 35
MPH.


* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT.


* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS NEAR 95 DEGREES.


* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
A BURN BAN REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...


FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.


MONITOR WEATHER FORECASTS AND INFORMATION.

95 degrees tomorrow?

Jeesh does the heat dome ever go away.......................

[WilliamTell]

95 degrees tomorrow?

Jeesh does the heat dome ever go away.......................

Global warming brah....O wait, i'm not allowed to use that term here in oklahoma.

[venture]

Upgraded to a Red Flag Warning today...be careful!

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
304 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012


...EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA MONDAY AFTERNOON...


.STRONG... GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH HOT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR WILDFIRES.
OKZ004>042-044>046-050-240415-
/O.UPG.KOUN.FW.A.0012.120924T1700Z-120925T0100Z/
/O.NEW.KOUN.FW.W.0016.120924T1700Z-120925T0100Z/
HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-GRANT-KAY-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-GARFIELD-
NOBLE-ROGER MILLS-DEWEY-CUSTER-BLAINE-KINGFISHER-LOGAN-PAYNE-
BECKHAM-WA****A-CADDO-CANADIAN-OKLAHOMA-LINCOLN-GRADY-MCCLAIN-
CLEVELAND-POTTAWATOMIE-SEMINOLE-HUGHES-HARMON-GREER-KIOWA-JACKSON-
TILLMAN-COMANCHE-STEPHENS-GARVIN-MURRAY-PONTOTOC-COTTON-JEFFERSON-
CARTER-LOVE-
304 PM CDT SUN SEP 23 2012
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY FOR
MUCH OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM CDT MONDAY. THE
FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.
* WIND...SOUTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40
MPH.
* HUMIDITY...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES OF 15 TO 25 PERCENT.
* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS NEAR 95 DEGREES.
* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
A BURN BAN REMAINS IN AFFECT FOR MUCH OF OKLAHOMA. OUTDOOR
BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FIRES MAY START EASILY AND SPREAD RAPIDLY. REPORT SMOKE OR FIRE
TO YOUR LOCAL FIRE DEPARTMENT.

[SoonerDave]

Hey, Venture, what are the models suggesting for late-week, Fri evening in particular? Hearing conflicting notions...low chance of precip, to remnants of hurricane dumping heavy rain

[Jesseda]

Hey, Venture, what are the models suggesting for late-week, Fri evening in particular? Hearing conflicting notions...low chance of precip, to remnants of hurricane dumping heavy rain

Oh great weather god Venture please tell me what your crystal ball says about Saturday aftermoon-evening? My son is having a birthday party and has a moon bounce planned. Do we need to change plans to a Noahs Ark themed party