Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

[venture]

Welcome to the end of May with slight risks the next 3 days...again.

TODAY - Slight Risk is mainly from Norman to Ardmore and back to the South & West.
MAIN THREATS - Large Hail & Damaging Wind.

...PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS... DESPITE WEAKLY RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...A WEAK/SUBTLE VORT MAX IS
PROGGED TO CROSS NM AND APPROACH NWRN TX BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE WEAK SURFACE
FRONT...FRONTAL ASCENT -- AIDED BY THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE --
SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED STORM DEVELOPMENT.

WITH MODERATE WLYS AT MID LEVELS ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS...0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT SUPPORT ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS -- AND
ATTENDANT THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. AS A
SLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF TX DURING THE
EVENING...STORMS SHOULD EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND SPREAD/DEVELOP
EWD/NEWD WITH TIME...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT POSSIBLY LINGERING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

TOMORROW - Slight Risk for Central & Western Oklahoma including an Enhanced Risk area from I-35 (including the Metro) to the West.
MAIN THREATS - Very Large Hail and some Damaging Winds. Tornado threat should be low.

...SOUTHERN PLAINS... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING/NEBULOUS LOW AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES ARE LIKELY
TO EXIST ATOP A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN TX AND OK/SOUTHERN KS ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IN THE
SPECIFIC SPATIAL/TEMPORAL DETAILS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT AN
ASSORTMENT OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS INDICATIVE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. THIS
CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PROBABLE NEAR/NORTHEAST OF A HEAT-AIDED
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTHWEST TX...PERHAPS MOST LIKELY NEAR A STALLED
BOUNDARY/CORRIDOR OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ACROSS WESTERN OK/PERHAPS
SOUTHERN KS. HERE...THE AIRMASS WILL LIKELY BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE/WEAKLY CAPPED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE
POTENTIALLY REACHING 2500-3500 J/KG AMID 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
WHERE DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DOES OCCUR...AMPLE
INSTABILITY/VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES COINCIDENT WITH MODERATELY STRONG
MID-HIGH LEVEL WESTERLIES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY
LARGE HAIL. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL ESPECIALLY IF
STORMS CONGEAL/ORGANIZE DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. IN SPITE OF
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS...THE
TORNADO THREAT WILL TEND TO BE HINDERED BY RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW AND PERHAPS SOMEWHAT HIGH BASES /ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT FORECAST
GUIDANCE IS UNDERESTIMATING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING/.

TUESDAY - Slight Risk for most of the state except far Eastern areas. Enhances Risk from the OKC Metro area and North of I-40 and West of I-35.
MAIN RISKS - Wide spread damaging winds from storm complexes moving SE with some large hail from earlier storms.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS... WHILE GUIDANCE REGARDING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE FEATURES
VARY...AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS GENERALLY SUGGESTIVE OF AN
AMPLIFYING SPLIT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS...A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TO
THE EAST OF 1/ A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH PLAINS/NORTHWEST TX
AND 2/ A SOUTH-TO-NORTH EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS...AND OTHERWISE IN VICINITY OF A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS
OK/SOUTHERN KS. CURRENT THINKING IS THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR
SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING HOURS WILL BE ACROSS WESTERN/SOUTHERN KS INTO
WESTERN/NORTHERN OK. GIVEN GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES WITH
HEIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DESTABILIZATION...SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY
BE THE CASE PRIOR TO THE POSSIBLE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING TSTM CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING
HOURS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE.

[venture]

SPC has raised the probability risk for tomorrow to 30% hatched. We could be looking at two days of significant MCSs moving through oklahoma...something we haven't seen in a few years.

[Jesseda]

SPC has raised the probability risk for tomorrow to 30% hatched. We could be looking at two days of significant MCSs moving through oklahoma...something we haven't seen in a few years.

Im stupid , what does MCS mean, and is it bad.

[venture]

Mesoscale convective system...large complex of storms that normally produce widespread damaging wind.

[ou48A]

Mesoscale convective system...large complex of storms that normally produce widespread damaging wind.

+ Sometimes flooding rains particularly when they are repeated for several days in a row.
But we could still use more rain!

[venture]

Storm over Grady County moving into McCalin is intensifying pretty fast right now. Hail up to 3.54" now detected.

Other severe storm in the Metro Area is just south of the McClain county line between Lindsay and Maysville with hail up to 2.06". Movement is generally some variation to the east. The Grady storm is moving South...the Lindsay storm is moving NE.

[PennyQuilts]

Looking pretty impressive from SW OK county.

[venture]

Watch Extended for South Metro Area.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 310
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
712 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

OKC019-027-049-051-085-087-099-290500-
/O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0310.000000T0000Z-120529T0500Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 310 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
TONIGHT

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CLEVELAND GRADY MCCLAIN

IN SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
CARTER GARVIN LOVE
MURRAY

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ARDMORE...CHICKASHA...MARIETTA...
MOORE...NORMAN...PAULS VALLEY...PURCELL AND SULPHUR.

[venture]

New Warning as storms start to build/move more NE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
OKC027-051-087-290200-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0285.120529T0112Z-120529T0200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
812 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CLEVELAND COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
GRADY COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
MCCLAIN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 811 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM GOLDSBY TO TABLER... MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... NORMAN...MOORE...STELLA...PURCELL...NEWCASTLE...NO BLE...TUTTLE... SLAUGHTERVILLE...BLANCHARD...LEXINGTON...GOLDSBY.. .ALEX... WASHINGTON...COLE...DIBBLE...ETOWAH...LAKE THUNDERBIRD... STANLEY DRAPER LAKE... MIDDLEBERG AND TABLER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

[venture]

Another Watch Extension as NC OK has started to explode.

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 310
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
825 PM CDT MON MAY 28 2012
OKC017-073-081-083-109-119-125-290500-
/O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0310.000000T0000Z-120529T0500Z/
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 310 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT
TONIGHT
IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES
IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
CANADIAN KINGFISHER LINCOLN
LOGAN OKLAHOMA PAYNE
POTTAWATOMIE
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHANDLER...EL RENO...GUTHRIE...
KINGFISHER...MUSTANG...OKLAHOMA CITY...SHAWNEE...
STILLWATER AND YUKON.

[Bunty]

Looking pretty impressive from SW OK county.

Some storms have been developing to the north, too, from northern Payne County southwest to southern Kingfisher and northern Canadian Counties.

[venture]

Things starting to calm down for the most part.

Severe Storm #1 - Canadian County - Has been decreasing pretty fast. Should be gone in the next hour.

Severe Storm #2 - Lincoln County - Is still pretty strong and move ESE. Strong winds and hail main threats still.

Additional storms are developing from Noble County northeast to Osage County...also from Nowata down SW along I-44 to the Lincoln County storm. Right now they aren't getting too intense, but some may drop some decent hail this evening.

One thing to watch for tomorrow is the number of outflow boundaries these storms are leaving behind. It could make things interesting tomorrow with a very dynamic surface setup which could increase the chance for lower level rotation with the storms. Also at the very least it will create a more complex scenario on where storms will form tomorrow. Stay turned.

[venture]

So my comments about May going out like a lion...We have two significant days coming up. I'll go more in depth after the 00Z models are ran, but this is what SPC has.

SLIGHT RISK TODAY - Most of Oklahoma...best chance in Central sections.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN KS/SWRN MO SWD INTO N
TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD
ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AREA...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH INITIALLY CENTERED OVER WRN ONTARIO AND THE ADJACENT
UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES PORTION OF THE U.S. WILL SHIFT
STEADILY EWD THIS PERIOD...REACHING A POSITION OVER QUEBEC AND THE
NORTHEAST U.S. BY 30/12Z. MEANWHILE IN THE WEST...A MUCH MORE
COMPACT UPPER FEATURE INITIALLY OVER SRN BRITISH COLUMBIA/WA IS
FORECAST TO SLIDE ESEWD INTO MT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE N
CENTRAL/NERN U.S. TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES/OH VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...THE FRONT
SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NY/WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
REGION INTO THE KS/OK VICINITY. THIS FRONT -- AND A DRYLINE
EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN OK/TX DURING THE AFTERNOON -- WILL BE FOCI
FOR STRONG/SEVERE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION.

...SRN KS/OK/N TX AND VICINITY...
DAYTIME HEATING OF THE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS COMBINED WITH EWD
ADVECTION OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN STRONG
DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND THE SRN
PLAINS...WITH MIXED-LAYER CAPE OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WIDESPREAD...AND
LIKELY EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG IN PARTS OF OK AND VICINITY. WHILE THIS
WILL PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...STORM COVERAGE MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED BY
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED UPPER FEATURE.
STILL...LIKELY PRESENCE OF A WARM FRONT INVOF THE KS/OK BORDER
REGION AND A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN OK/WRN TX SUGGEST THAT
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON -- MOST
LIKELY INITIALLY INVOF THE DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION EXPECTED INVOF
SWRN KS/NWRN OK DURING THE AFTERNOON. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...UPSCALE
GROWTH IS EXPECTED ALONG OUTFLOWS GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY.
RESULTING COMPLEX STORMS STRUCTURES ARE ANTICIPATED...THOUGH SHEAR
SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WILL SUPPORT LARGE ROTATING STORMS AT
TIMES.

GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...STORMS WHICH CAN
ORGANIZE AND REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
VERY LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY IF STORMS CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE SMALL BOWING
MCS/S. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO ALSO WILL BE POSSIBLE -- MOST
LIKELY INVOF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE NRN OK VICINITY.

MORE ISOLATED CELLS SHOULD DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE...AND ALSO
BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS LOCALLY.
OVERNIGHT...STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS PARTS OF OK/N TX WITH
SOME ATTENDANT SEVER POTENTIAL...BEFORE DIMINISHING LATER IN THE
PERIOD.

MODERATE RISK for WEDNESDAY...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND (DERECHO) EVENT POSSIBLE. GREATEST RISK FROM NW OKLAHOMA INTO THE OKC METRO AREA. This could be a day when we actually see a PDS Severe box

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CDT TUE MAY 29 2012

VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHERN KS AND PORTIONS
OF OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX...

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TO OZARKS/ARKLATEX...
WHILE A DEGREE OF GUIDANCE VARIABILITY REMAINS EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
FEATURES...00Z-BASED NUMERICAL GUIDANCE REFLECT A QUICK
AMPLIFICATION OF THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN OVER THE PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/WESTERN CANADA AMPLIFIES/SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
PLAINS. IN THE LOW LEVELS...A MOIST/POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF 1/ A SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE TX SOUTH
PLAINS/NORTHWEST TX AND 2/ A SOUTH-TO-NORTH EXTENDING SURFACE TROUGH
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND OTHERWISE IN VICINITY OF A
STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS OK/KS.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES/HEIGHT FALLS
OCCUR...CURRENT THINKING IS THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR INITIAL
SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON WILL
BE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SOUTHWEST NEB...AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN KS AND
WESTERN/NORTHERN OK BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. GIVEN GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING WESTERLIES WITH HEIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
DESTABILIZATION /3000+ J PER KG MLCAPE ESPECIALLY ACROSS OK INTO
SOUTHERN KS/...SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL/PERHAPS A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE FIRST SEVERAL
HOURS OF TSTM INITIATION. THAT SAID...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE
OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE TEMPERED BY INITIALLY WEAK LOW
LEVEL FLOW AND/OR BY CONVECTIVE MODE AFTER DARK. A SUBSEQUENT
UPSCALE GROWTH/EVOLUTION OF ONE OR MORE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING
MCS/S SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS LATE AFTERNOON
ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL KS...AND OTHERWISE DURING THE EVENING HOURS
ACROSS OK/ADJACENT NORTH TX/EVENTUALLY AR WITH DAMAGING WINDS
/POSSIBLY WIDESPREAD/ A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY THROUGH THE
EVENING/PERHAPS OVERNIGHT.

[venture]

Due to the significant nature of the severe weather chances today and tomorrow, the chat room is being brought online (finally). Previous attendees have been sent email invites already. If you are not on the list, please send me a PM here on the forum with your email and I'll get you added. This will help prevent you from being moderated.

Direct link: http://www.weatherspotlight.com/chat.html

[ou48A]

Mike Morgan and David Payne of KFOR TV ch 4 are both talking about the potential for tornadoes later today but that the risk for tornadoes goes way up tomorrow.

This is when I would like to see something similar to the Weather channels TOR:CON index on our local TV stations.

[TaoMaas]

Mike Morgan and David Payne of KFOR TV ch 4 are both talking about the potential for tornadoes later today...

If you want accurate weather information (not hype), don't listen to them. They're both watching the ratings more than the radar. David Payne is the worst of the two. He's an attention ho.

[venture]

Mike Morgan and David Payne of KFOR TV ch 4 are both talking about the potential for tornadoes later today but that the risk for tornadoes goes way up tomorrow.

This is when I would like to see something similar to the Weather channels TOR:CON index on our local TV stations.

I'm working on something similar with the weather program I'm putting together. It is just a matter of our to make it effect. TOR:CON is an interesting concept, but it definitely needs to be localized. The issue then comes down to model data for it since morning soundings really can't guarantee the atmosphere will be the same later on. However, we can have that discussion another day. I'll probably have a minor alpha build ready in the next couple of weeks (time permitting) to provide some basic information. I'll be posting a discussion here shortly on the outlook for today.

[ou48A]

I'm working on something similar with the weather program I'm putting together. It is just a matter of our to make it effect. TOR:CON is an interesting concept, but it definitely needs to be localized. The issue then comes down to model data for it since morning soundings really can't guarantee the atmosphere will be the same later on. However, we can have that discussion another day. I'll probably have a minor alpha build ready in the next couple of weeks (time permitting) to provide some basic information. I'll be posting a discussion here shortly on the outlook for today.

That would be a good deal.
Maybe you could sell your model to the TV stations?

[ou48A]

If you want accurate weather information (not hype), don't listen to them. They're both watching the ratings more than the radar. David Payne is the worst of the two. He's an attention ho.

Leading up to a sever WX threat I generally try to watch 4, 5 and 9. Each, at times, can deliver different information. Yes some are worse about going way out on a limb but I like to know what the worst case scenario is so that I’m less likely to be caught off guard.

[ou48A]

I will give CH 4 credit for issuing a warning for the most recent Norman tornadoe, minutes before the national weather service.

The city of Norman did not sound their sirens until 3 minutes after the national weather service sounded their sirens. There were 20 injuries in Norman.
For too many people, the TV warnings were their only warnings until the tornado passed.

The city of Norman has got to devise a much better warning system.

[SoonerDave]

So Weds is looking interesting, eh? * sigh * At least the kiddos are home from school this time of year

[venture]

Significant two days of severe weather expect across the area today and tomorrow. Tomorrow is definitely the higher risk day (SPC continuing Moderate Risk / 45% hatched area) for the potential for one or more MCS complexes. A lot of people like to focus on the tornado risk but the moderate risk is NOT for tornadoes. In situations like these what we typically see is 3-4 supercells pop up and some normally are tornadic initially and also have very large hail. Then they start to merge together and begin to form a large scale bow complex that turns outflow dominant and races ESE/SE. The main risk that turns to a derecho event with widespread 65-80 mph winds with isolated pockets of 80-100+ mph winds where embedded circulations on the leading edge can enhance things. Hail is usually not much of an issue, but can still occur. So keep in mind that yes tornadoes are bad...but a 75-150 mile wall of a destructive wind is going to be more noticeable. Like every other situation though, everything needs to come to together or it may not happen as advertised - which no one really complains about.

For Today...Slight risk covers all of the state except the panhandle.

We are also seeing instabilities climb into the very high category across Western OK. CIN is still around keeping a lid on things however. There are a view clouds around, but nothing signifying any immediate development. Instability is expected to increase into the extreme category today...CAPE 4000+ j/kg. So when a storm is ready to go, it is going to go severe very fast. Winds today aren't the greatest when it comes to tornado production. The SPC is thinking mostly Northern OK which is probably more tied to the better chance for storm development. However, I'm seeing more backing to the winds from I-40 and to the south. Essentially it'll probably come down to storms that can get well established mesocyclones. HRRR forecast SRH with storms that form is going to be around 200-400 m^2/s^2...this generally would signify a good shot at rotating storms.

HRRR is forecasting initiation in Western OK from Major County down into the Altus/Frederick areas by 3-4PM. It then continues explosive development across areas west of I-35 almost border to border (but not a solid line). Right now it appears that it wants to form a complex with the northern storms and push them across the Metro area and into NE OK through the early evening hours. It does taper the SW OK storms off pretty quickly - we'll see if that happens. There is a lot of juice out there.

Another thing to keep in mind for today is any left over outflow boundaries from yesterday could enhance dynamics in localized areas which could increase storms development, hail size, and tornado potential.

Will cover tomorrow more later.

[bandnerd]

Tomorrow's forecast reminds me of that storm that came through the NW side of town last August out of nowhere. It knocked power out and crumbled a storefront around the corner from the neighborhood, trapping a man inside what was to be a liquor store within walking distance of my home. It was like watching a sideways tornado outside our home. I actually watched the wind come down the street before jumping back behind the garage. Both Mid and I ran for the door and watched it through the storm door (lol of course...this is Oklahoma).

You know it's not going to be good when the power gets knocked out before the storm even gets to your home. Guess I'll batten down the hatches today. Easier now than later...

[venture]

CU development is starting to pick up from Major County south to near Altus. Things looking good to start popping between 3 and 4.

Latest HRRR showing its idea of development here late this afternoon/early evening: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrcon...main=t5&wjet=1

[venture]

Now starting to get CU development south of the Red River in NW Texas.