Widgets Magazine
Page 2 of 6 FirstFirst 123456 LastLast
Results 26 to 50 of 142

Thread: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

  1. #26

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by venture79 View Post
    Maybe soon. I'll post more this evening. I'm also working on a new weather program (for PC) to help make a lot of the severe weather stuff easier to understand. If anyone has any requests for features toss them my way.
    Very good... just making sure you were still around

  2. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Slight Risk tomorrow for Western OK

    DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    1231 AM CDT FRI MAY 18 2012

    VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
    SRN PLAINS...

    ...CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS...

    WEAK HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE DAY2
    PERIOD AS A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH EJECTS FROM CO/NM INTO NEB/KS/WRN OK
    BY 20/00Z. AS THIS FEATURE SHIFTS EAST SFC PRESSURE WILL RISE IN
    THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES FORCING A COLD FRONT TO A POSITION
    FROM NRN MN...SWWD ACROSS SERN NEB INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY PEAK
    HEATING. VERY WARM EML WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SLGT RISK REGION
    EARLY SATURDAY WHICH WILL LIMIT PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITHIN THE
    ELONGATED WARM ADVECTION ZONE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE
    STRENGTH OF THE CAP IT APPEARS SFC TEMPERATURES WILL NEED TO WARM
    SIGNIFICANTLY FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-70.
    EVEN SO...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER
    HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS KS/NWRN OK/TX
    PANHANDLE. THIS WILL WEAKEN THE CAP AND COMBINED WITH FRONTAL
    CONVERGENCE SHOULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/JUST
    BEHIND THE ADVANCING WIND SHIFT TOWARD EARLY EVENING. FORECAST
    SOUNDINGS SUGGEST AMPLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL
    UPDRAFTS AND PERHAPS EVEN A FEW SUPERCELLS. LATEST DATA ALSO
    SUGGESTS A CONCENTRATION OF POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED DUE
    TO THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WARM SECTOR CAP. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT
    CONVECTION IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE CANADIAN
    BORDER WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT.
    GIVEN THE STEEPEST LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER INSTABILITY MAY BE
    RESERVED TO THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS IT APPEARS THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES
    FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THESE AREAS.
    WARM ADVECTION DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SHOULD ENHANCE THE
    LONGEVITY OF THIS CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY EAST IN ASSOCIATION
    WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE.

  3. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Initiation looks to be between 4 and 6 PM in NW OK this afternoon. Storms will move generally off to the East/Northeast. Could see some into Central areas late tonight, but severe threat should be down by then but could still see a few severe reports.

    ...E TX PNHDL/WRN OK INTO ERN NEB/WRN IA TODAY/TNGT...
    PERSISTENT LOW LVL SLY FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT/LEE TROUGH WILL
    CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER MOISTENING OVER ERN PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND
    CNTRL PLNS TODAY. HOWEVER...SFC DATA /ESPECIALLY CONTINUING
    PRESENCE OF RIDGING OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO/ AND BLENDED PW DATA
    SUGGEST THAT MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL REMAIN MODEST. THIS
    FACTOR WILL ONCE AGAIN LIMIT DEGREE OF DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
    ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT. NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN BROAD/DEEP EML...AMPLE
    SBCAPE /1500-2500 J PER KG/ LIKELY WILL DEVELOP TO SUPPORT AN
    INCREASING RISK FOR SVR STORMS LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE
    CNTRL/SRN PLNS AND THE MID MO VLY.

    BAND OF STORMS NOW PRESENT FROM NW IA SWD INTO NW MO/ERN KS MARKS
    THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EML AND ASSOCIATED WAA. ALTHOUGH THEY MAY
    YIELD A SPOT OR TWO OF HAIL...THE TSTMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS
    MORNING AS ASSOCIATED LLJ WEAKENS AND BACKS. NEW STORMS...WITH A
    GREATER SVR POTENTIAL...SHOULD FORM BY MID-LATE AFTN ALONG FRONT/LEE
    TROUGH FROM S CNTRL NEB SWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE AS FORCING FOR
    ASCENT WITH EJECTING UPR IMPULSE AND SFC HEATING OVERCOME EML CAP.

    MODEST MOISTURE AVAILABILITY /MAX SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F/ WILL
    LIMIT BUOYANCY. BUT 40+ KT SWLY 500 MB JET ASSOCIATED WITH
    CO UPR IMPULSE AND CONTINUING PRESENCE OF 35 KT SLY LLJ WILL YIELD
    AMPLE DEEP SHEAR FOR SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS. A FEW OF THESE
    MAY REMAIN DISCRETE FOR AN HOUR OR TWO LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS
    EVE...POSING A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DMGG WIND...AND PERHAPS
    A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD...HOWEVER...MORE GENERALLY
    EVOLVE INTO A FAIRLY LENGTHY SQLN BY EVE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL POSE A
    CONTINUED RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND COULD PRODUCE A BROADER SWATH OR TWO
    OF DMGG WIND INTO TNGT AS THE COLD POOLS CONSOLIDATE/STRENGTHEN.
    THE SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH LATER TNGT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
    COOLS AND UPR IMPULSE CONTINUES NEWD BEYOND NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE
    RETURN.

  4. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Good line of cu developing in nw ok...watch is up now.

  5. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Watch has been extended into the Metro area (western parts)...

    WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 282
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
    827 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012


    OKC015-017-200300-
    /O.EXA.KOUN.SV.A.0282.000000T0000Z-120520T0300Z/


    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
    WATCH 282 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS
    EVENING


    IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 2 COUNTIES


    IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA


    CANADIAN


    IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA


    CADDO


    THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ANADARKO...EL RENO...
    MUSTANG AND YUKON.

  6. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012



    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 284
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    905 PM CDT SAT MAY 19 2012

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
    NORTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
    NORTHWEST TEXAS

    EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 905 PM
    UNTIL 400 AM CDT.

    WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
    ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
    SCATTERED LARGE HAIL
    ISOLATED HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
    ISOLATED TORNADOES

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
    STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTHWEST OF
    CHANUTE KANSAS TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF ALTUS OKLAHOMA.
    FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
    OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

    REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
    DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

    OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 281...WW 282...WW 283...

    DISCUSSION...TWO SEPARATE CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE
    ONGOING...ONE OVER W-CNTRL OK...AND THE OTHER OVER S-CNTRL KS...WITH
    ADDITIONAL STORM FORMATION NOTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS N-CNTRL
    OK. 00Z OUN SOUNDING SHOWED THE PRESENCE OF A STRONG CAP WHICH
    SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTENANCE TO IMMEDIATE VICINITY
    OF THE COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF A MODESTLY MOIST...STEEP
    LAPSE RATE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AND AROUND 40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
    BULK SHEAR...SETUP WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
    STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE
    HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

    AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
    TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
    KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
    MOTION VECTOR 27025.

  7. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    So you might be thinking...has May seemed abnormally quiet? So far for the month of May we've had 3 total severe weather days.

    May 1st had our only tornadoes for the month of May and that was with activity that was on going after Midnight from April 30th. The other two days were May 4th in a very localized area of SW OK and then a couple days ago - May 19th. The numbers for the month so far...

    Tornadoes: 2
    Wind Reports (56 mph +): 25
    Significant Wind Reports (75 mph+): 6
    Hail Reports (1" +): 30
    Significant Hail Reports (2" +): 5

    April was a very big month for us overall and historically when April is very active May is usually the same. This year seems to be the opposite to that as the main jet stream has stayed well north. This week it looks like it'll drop south some as a trough forms to the our west, but will again retreat back north through the first week of June. Even though we all love not having to get a new roof every year, there is the need for rain to mitigate any summer fire danger. There is hope. As the jet stream moves back north we will ease into a Northwest flow pattern (typical June-like storm pattern) by the middle of next week. This should assist in getting us some storms here...probably the typical complex situations of storms forming in KS/CO and diving SE towards us.

    So going off the 00Z GFS...here is what we are looking at.

    - Now through probably May 28th/Monday dry. Could see chances increase out west before this, but overall looks dry.
    - Tues May 29th: Transition to NW flow begins and chance of storms mainly I-40 and to the north. Instability moderate to high. Severe possible.
    - Weds May 30th: Storms possible over much of the state, higher chances west with complex from KS. Severe possible.
    - Thurs May 31st: Heavy Rain/Storms possible early western half from storm complex. Severe possible.
    - Fri June 1st: Chance of storms Western 1/3rd as complex drops south. Dry elsewhere.
    - Sat June 2nd: Dry.
    - Sun June 3rd: Chance of storms Central & West.
    - Mon June 4th: Chance of storms Southwest half of OK. Severe possible.
    - Tue June 5th: Chance of storms all of OK, best chance Central / East. Severe possible.
    - Wed June 6th: The last day of the forecast window is always goofy. Chance of rain and we'll leave it at that.

    So something I'll point out. It always appears GFS loads up the 2nd week of its forecast with storm chances, but then they seem to not happen. So keep that in mind when looking at this. Though indications are we'll get into a better pattern for storm development, this is not written in stone.

  8. #33

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Venture - By saying that it's been a quiet month - you're hexing us for sure! The prog charts show a dry line in western Oklahoma later this week.

  9. #34

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Those tornado reports that were reported as "May 1st", I believe happened April 30. SPC has a funky way of reporting severe wx reports and which day it actually happened. For record keeping purposes, the day goes from 1am-12:59am. They do this to keep wih standard time. So, if a tornado were to occur on May 1st, 2012 at 12:30am, it would actually be recorded on April 30th, even though the calendar dates is May 1st.

    I know it's weird but for record keeping purposes, SPC has those tornadoes listed as happening on April 30th. The NWS is currently updating their records to reflect this as well.

    As for a tornado happening on May 19th. Where did this come from? Not seeing any reports.

  10. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by damonsmuz View Post
    Those tornado reports that were reported as "May 1st", I believe happened April 30. SPC has a funky way of reporting severe wx reports and which day it actually happened. For record keeping purposes, the day goes from 1am-12:59am. They do this to keep wih standard time. So, if a tornado were to occur on May 1st, 2012 at 12:30am, it would actually be recorded on April 30th, even though the calendar dates is May 1st.

    I know it's weird but for record keeping purposes, SPC has those tornadoes listed as happening on April 30th. The NWS is currently updating their records to reflect this as well.

    As for a tornado happening on May 19th. Where did this come from? Not seeing any reports.
    You're reading it wrong. We had a total of 3 severe weather days...May 1st, 4th, and 19th. The only two tornadoes that were recorded in May were on May 1st as I stated. These were in NE Oklahoma where I had already accounted for the time different. So they they are on the April 30th report, but they occurred after Midnight CDT (0500 UTC). My apologies if it was difficult to understand. I already accounted for the time difference and based it on the actual local time the events took place, not when they showed up on an SPC report.

    Quote Originally Posted by OKCTalker View Post
    Venture - By saying that it's been a quiet month - you're hexing us for sure! The prog charts show a dry line in western Oklahoma later this week.
    Dryline will be out there, but little support for anything to develop.

  11. #36

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Me reading things wrong has been known to happen SPC hasn't recorded the tornadoes for May 1st. ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120501_rpts.html

    Tulsa only has 1 tornado report that happened after 1am that day in Welch.

    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weath...t_2012aprflood

  12. #37

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    It appears that the SPC database has recorded 130am May 1st as April 30s. Eh.... typo.. moving on

  13. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by damonsmuz View Post
    Me reading things wrong has been known to happen SPC hasn't recorded the tornadoes for May 1st. ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/120501_rpts.html

    Tulsa only has 1 tornado report that happened after 1am that day in Welch.

    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/?n=weath...t_2012aprflood
    The TSA would probably be correct since the SPC reports are only prelim reports.

    Quote Originally Posted by damonsmuz View Post
    It appears that the SPC database has recorded 130am May 1st as April 30s. Eh.... typo.. moving on
    Not a typo. Storm Reports go 7AM to 7AM CDT.

  14. #39

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Dang, yes. NWS goes 1am-1am and SPC reports goes 7am-7am. OK, now that all that has been settled. Meteorology is complicated enough as it is...sometimes it would be nice if a simple storm report and the date it actually happened was just a simple. Argh

  15. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Things still appear to be on track for severe weather to return early next week. May going out with a bang just like it came in (sort of)?

  16. #41

    Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Venture, is there any indication we will have another brutal summer like last year?

  17. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Drought conditions are starting to reappear across the state, so if that continues it would definitely help drive more heat over the summer. We'll have to see though. Last summer was crazy so hopefully we stay away from a repeat.

  18. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Slight Risk has been added today for all of Western OK.

    DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    0751 AM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

    VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT
    FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

    ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
    ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...

    ...SYNOPSIS...

    LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD OWING TO
    THE SEWD DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER TROUGH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO
    LOWER CO VALLEY...AND SUBSEQUENT NWD/NEWD EXPANSION OF SUBTROPICAL
    RIDGE INTO MID-MS AND OH VALLEYS. WITHIN THIS BROADER-SCALE
    PATTERN...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INTO WRN
    ONTARIO WILL DE-AMPLIFY WHILE TRANSLATING ENEWD INTO QUEBEC.

    AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE GREAT LAKES SHORT-WAVE
    TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD TO THE LEE OF LAKE ERIE/ONTARIO BY LATE
    AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WITH THE BOUNDARY TRAILING WSWWD INTO THE
    CNTRL PLAINS WHERE IT WILL BE LIFTING NWD AS A WARM FRONT. A
    DRYLINE WILL EXTEND FROM THE WARM FRONT OVER WRN KS SWD TO ALONG THE
    TX/OK BORDER AND INTO THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY DURING THE PEAK OF THE
    DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.

    ...MID-MO VALLEY INTO THE SRN PLAINS...

    SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN ALONG THE WARM
    FRONT AND DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OWING TO THE RISING
    MIDLEVEL HEIGHTS DOWNSTREAM FROM WRN U.S. TROUGH. HOWEVER...SOME
    MESOSCALE AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT
    STRONG DIABATIC WARMING WITHIN AIR MASS W OF DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS
    INTO W-CNTRL TX MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED TSTMS BY LATE
    AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS SUCH...HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AND
    A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK HAVE BEEN EXTENDED SWD INTO THE ERN TX
    PNHDL/WRN OK.

    12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
    FOR STRONG AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION TODAY /MLCAPE OF 2000-4000 J PER
    KG/ OWING TO THE COLLOCATION OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH STEEP
    MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ATTENDANT TO EML. THE STRONGEST DEEP-LAYER
    SHEAR /50-60 KT/ WILL RESIDE ACROSS WARM FRONT WITH A GENERAL
    DECREASE WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG DRYLINE. IN AREAS WHERE THE VERTICAL
    SHEAR IS WEAKER...THE STRONG INSTABILITY WILL COMPENSATE WITH
    SUPERCELLS LIKELY ANYWHERE SURFACE-BASED STORMS CAN INITIATE AND
    BECOME SUSTAINED. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...THOUGH
    THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS NRN
    EXTENSION OF DRYLINE AND WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
    ENHANCED.

  19. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Severe storms are on going out west right now.



    Tornadoes
    Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
    Low (20%)
    Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
    Low (5%)
    Wind
    Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
    Mod (50%)
    Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
    Mod (30%)
    Hail
    Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
    Mod (50%)
    Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
    Low (20%)
    Combined Severe Hail/Wind
    Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
    High (90%)

    URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 299
    NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
    655 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

    THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
    SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

    SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
    WESTERN OKLAHOMA
    EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

    EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY NIGHT FROM 655 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

    SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
    ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
    SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 2.0 INCHES IN DIAMETER
    ISOLATED TORNADOES

    THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
    STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES WEST OF ALTUS
    OKLAHOMA TO 65 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF DODGE CITY KANSAS. FOR A
    COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
    UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

    REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
    FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
    AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
    THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
    AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
    DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

    DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
    SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST OK...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
    UPPER VORTICITY MAX. HIGH CAPE VALUES AND RATHER STRONG LOWER
    TROPOSPHERIC WINDS WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
    HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS THIS EVENING.

    AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
    TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
    KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
    MOTION VECTOR 24025.

  20. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Something unique...

    URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
    NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
    1025 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

    OKZ004>006-009>011-015-017-260600-
    /O.NEW.KOUN.HW.W.0004.120526T0325Z-120526T0600Z/
    HARPER-WOODS-ALFALFA-ELLIS-WOODWARD-MAJOR-DEWEY-BLAINE-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BUFFALO...ALVA...CHEROKEE...ARNETT...
    WOODWARD...FAIRVIEW...TALOGA...WATONGA
    1025 PM CDT FRI MAY 25 2012

    ...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY...

    THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A HIGH WIND
    WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT SATURDAY.

    * TIMING: STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
    NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA THROUGH 1 AM.

    * WINDS: WIND GUSTS OF 70 TO 80 MPH WILL BE LIKELY.

    * IMPACTS:THESE STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS DRIVING
    CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. SOME DAMAGE TO TREES AND ROOFS WILL
    BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH BLOWING AROUND OBJECTS THAT ARE NOT TIED
    DOWN.

    PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

    WINDS THIS STRONG CAN BLOW LIGHTWEIGHT OBJECTS AROUND...MAKE IT
    DIFFICULT TO KEEP YOUR VEHICLE ON THE ROAD AND CREATE AREAS OF
    BLOWING DUST.

  21. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Slight Risk far NW today & tomorrow... Slight Risk for much of Central/SW OK for Memorial Day...

    TODAY:
    ...WRN KS TO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS...
    OPERATIONAL AND CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT IN
    INDICATING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS FORMING ALONG THE LEE
    TROUGH/DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN
    MODERATE...BUT WITH LARGE SURFACE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS...A RISK FOR
    ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST. HAVE OPTED TO ADD SLIGHT RISK
    S/SWWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE ON THE EDGE OF THE STRONGLY BUOYANT
    AIR MASS IN NEB/KS/OK.

    MEMORIAL DAY...
    ...SRN PLAINS...
    WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
    MONDAY. AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP
    FROM WEST TX EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL OK MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC
    TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY AND THE CAP WEAKENS...SCATTERED
    THUNDERSTORM INITIATION SEEMS PROBABLE ACROSS NORTHWEST TX AND
    SOUTHWEST OK. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE
    SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 29/00Z AT WICHITA
    FALLS SHOW MLCAPE OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG WITH AROUND 40 KT OF DEEP
    LAYER SHEAR. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
    HAIL. HOWEVER...THE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SHORTWAVE
    FEATURES AND MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING STORM COVERAGE. HAVE
    ADDED A SLIGHT RISK FROM NEAR LUBBOCK NEWD TO THE OKLAHOMA CITY AREA
    WHERE THE GFS SHOWS A THE DEVELOPMENT OF A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
    MONDAY EVENING.

  22. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Venture -- was that crazy wind from the storms out west falling apart?
    Still corrupting young minds

  23. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Yeah it was. Good ol classic heat burst.

  24. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    Quote Originally Posted by venture79 View Post
    Yeah it was. Good ol classic heat burst.
    THAT'S what they're called. I remembered that's a possibility, from the collapsing storms, but I couldn't remember the term. I'll try and commit it to memory this time!
    Still corrupting young minds

  25. Default Re: Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2012

    As promised we would see a return to severe weather in the state this week. Slight risks in the state the next 3 days.

    TODAY - NW OK:
    ...CENTRAL PLAINS NNEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
    SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE THIS
    AFTERNOON -- FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL PLAINS REGION -- AS A SHORT-WAVE
    TROUGH/VORT MAX ON THE SERN FRINGE OF THE LARGER-SCALE UPPER SYSTEM
    EJECTS EWD. AS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZES -- BECOMING
    MODERATELY UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE APPROACH OF
    THE UPPER SYSTEM TO AID IN WEAKENING THE CAP -- AND EVENTUALLY
    SUPPORTING ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
    ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD -- ACCOMPANIED BY
    POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...THE MOST CONCENTRATED
    THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST INVOF A WEAK SURFACE LOW PROGGED TO MOVE
    ACROSS KS/SRN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON. HERE...50 TO 60 KT SWLY
    MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ATOP LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL RESULT IN SHEAR
    VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS -- AND RESULTING POTENTIAL FOR VERY
    LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WHILE A FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
    AND 20 C OR MORE SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS EXPECTED...TORNADO
    THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED OVER MOST OF THE AREA...THOUGH A COUPLE
    OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN PROXIMITY TO THE
    AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW -- I.E. ACROSS PARTS OF NEB AND KS.

    OVERNIGHT...AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EWD...STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
    LINEARLY ORGANIZED...WITH THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
    CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
    TOMORROW - CENTRAL TO SW OK:
    ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... WEAKER PORTION OF A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE A SLOW SOUTHEASTWARD
    PROGRESSION/EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. NUMERICAL
    GUIDANCE IS WELL-SUPPORTIVE OF DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE
    AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN A SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST ORIENTED CORRIDOR
    ACROSS NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTH-CENTRAL OK.
    EVEN WITH RELATIVELY NEBULOUS BROAD SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT...SUCH
    DEVELOPMENT SEEMS READILY PLAUSIBLE...AT LEAST ON AN ISOLATED
    BASIS...GIVEN AMPLE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION AND SUFFICIENT
    NEAR-BOUNDARY CONVERGENCE MONDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN WHILE LOW-MID
    TROPOSPHERIC FLOW WILL BE MODEST...MLCAPE TO 2500-3500 J/KG AND
    RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM MODES
    INCLUDING HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL INTO EARLY
    EVENING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A TSTM COMPLEX COULD EVOLVE SOMEWHERE
    ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL TX AND/OR OK EARLY IN THE EVENING...WITH
    LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME ASIDE FROM A CONTINUED
    LARGE HAIL THREAT.
    TUESDAY - CENTRAL/SW OK
    ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS LIKELY TO OCCUR INTO TUESDAY ACROSS THE
    REGION AS A MODESTLY STRONG/LOW AMPLITUDE BELT OF SOUTHERN STREAM
    WESTERLIES OTHERWISE PERSIST. DETAILED CONFIDENCE IS NOT
    PARTICULARLY HIGH INTO THE DAY 3 JUNCTURE...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS
    THAT DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR AT LEAST ON AN
    ISOLATED BASIS WITHIN WHAT SHOULD BE A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS
    OK/NORTH TX. WITH HEAT-AIDED WEAK SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS CURRENTLY
    ANTICIPATED ACROSS NORTHWEST TX...SUCH DEVELOPMENT APPEARS MOST
    PROBABLE IN VICINITY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW/DRYLINE
    AND/OR STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS OK. LARGE HAIL/POSSIBLY
    DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 5 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 5 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2012
    By venture in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 399
    Last Post: 05-01-2012, 10:00 AM
  2. Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - March 2012
    By Tydude in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 91
    Last Post: 03-30-2012, 08:03 PM
  3. Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - June 2011
    By venture in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 155
    Last Post: 06-29-2011, 05:47 AM
  4. Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - May 2011
    By venture in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 377
    Last Post: 06-01-2011, 12:33 AM
  5. Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2011
    By venture in forum Weather & Geosciences
    Replies: 286
    Last Post: 04-30-2011, 12:28 AM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
Single Sign On provided by vBSSO