Oklahoma Severe Weather Discussion - April 2012

[Charlie40]

He will have a more detailed discussion, but to sum it up: check back at the end of the month. Lol

David Payne in the past has said there are going to be big storms during the first week of May just because its the first week of May.

Oh, I didnt know you were Ventures secretary. Well if I ever need a jokester I will call on you. Thank you for your input.

[venture]

SPC added a slight risk for an area I discussed earlier...

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT WED APR 18 2012

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM S-CNTRL IA TO SWRN OK...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE/ZONAL UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE NRN TIER WILL
AMPLIFY ON THU AS A BROAD TROUGH FORMS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH
A SERIES OF EMBEDDED IMPULSES/SPEED MAXIMA. AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS
LOWER ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS...WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR
ALONG A S/SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT. AT 20/00Z...A SURFACE LOW SHOULD
BE CENTERED INVOF THE IA/MO BORDER WITH THE COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SWWD AND INTERSECTING ANOTHER LOW AND DRYLINE INVOF NWRN TX.

...MID-MO VALLEY TO THE SRN PLAINS...
ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
FOR A BROAD INFLUX OF RICH WRN GULF MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF A
DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHEAST...A CORRIDOR OF MIDDLE
50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY SPREAD NWD AHEAD OF
THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY
RANGING FROM 1000-2000 J/KG AT PEAK HEATING.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS
APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO INITIATE INVOF THE MO/IA SURFACE CYCLONE AND
THEN DEVELOP SWWD INTO EARLY EVENING AS INHIBITION WEAKENS. STRONG
MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS WILL PROMOTE UPDRAFT ROTATION AND IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULT IN A RISK FOR LARGE
HAIL. WITH STRONG FORCING WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE...AND LOW-LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING/VEERING IN MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR...THE POTENTIAL
FOR NUMEROUS STORM-SCALE INTERACTIONS MAY LIMIT THE LONGEVITY OF
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND INTENSITY OF HAIL GROWTH. A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO COULD DEVELOP AROUND SUNSET JUST NE OF THE COLD FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERSECTION IN SWRN OK WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN BACKED
PRIOR TO A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN MLCIN. WITH THE NOCTURNAL LLJ
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS NWRN/N-CNTRL TX...AN MCS COULD BECOME
SUSTAINED IN OK TO THE OZARK PLATEAU THU NIGHT. BUT GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...SEVERE
POTENTIAL SHOULD WANE WITH TIME AND ERN EXTENT OVERNIGHT.

..GRAMS.. 04/18/2012

[venture]

Things are pretty much on schedule as expected.

Slight risk has been expanded some to cover most of Oklahoma except far NW and far SE portions of the station. An area from Central OK back to SW OK has the risk of very large hail today and perhaps a tornado or two this evening. We are looking at a late show with this one again, so Central OK won't see things until after dark as it appears now.

[ou48A]

NWSNorman: May be enough wind shear for a few supercells to develop toward dark Wichita Falls to Lawton to Chickasha. Stay alert! #okwx [via Twitter]

[venture]

Updated SPC outlook is tightening up the greatest risk area from I-40 south to the Red River. HRRR runs seem to concur with this. Latest run has potential for supercells to develop around 9-10PM over Southern and SW OK. Nothing widespread. Large hail main threat, though a very low tornado threat is there. Evolution to a smaller MCS then that will sweep across the southern half of OK. At this point wind damage becomes the main threat. Everything should push out of Central OK by 3AM, though some light rain/scattered showers possible through morning.

[venture]

HRRR wants to develop a small line of storms from OKC north to east of Ponca City around 6PM...filling in down to Lawton at 7PM before falling apart. Then at 9PM develop a few supercells over SW OK moving them ENE and then the more defined storm complex just behind it. The later storms look to stay south of OKC right now, mostly Norman and south. However...models can be off in exactly placement.

[king183]

Venture, thanks for posting all of this. It's very helpful and you make it easy for us meteorology laymen to under what's going on/what can be expected. Also, it's extremely interesting (to me, at least).

[ou48A]

Mesoscale Discussion 567
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0567.html

[venture]

Since the MCD stuff is static I'll post it here for quick reference.


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0567
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...N-CNTRL / CNTRL / SWRN OK AND WRN N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 192310Z - 200115Z

THE AREA ACROSS N-CNTRL OK SSWWD INTO WRN N-CNTRL TX IS BEING
MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WW --ALBEIT DELAYED UNTIL THE CAP IS BREACHED
AND SCTD CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS UNDERWAY /00-03Z TIMEFRAME/.

LATEST SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES A LOW SERVING AS A TRIPLE
POINT-LIKE FEATURE 30 MI WNW SPS. A DRYLINE EXTENDS SWD ACROSS THE
N-CNTRL TX TO THE TX BIG BEND VICINITY. A WINDSHIFT/WEAK COOL FRONT
EXTENDS NWD FROM THE LOW INTO S-CNTRL KS...WHILE A MORE APPRECIABLE
FRONTAL SEGMENT CONTINUES SWD ACROSS THE TX LOW ROLLING PLAINS/SOUTH
PLAINS REGION. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHING THE REGION --HEIGHT FALLS SPREADING ACROSS THE
WRN EDGE OF THE WARM SECTOR-- AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES.
ADDITIONALLY...INCREASINGLY ACTIVE ACCAS FIELD ACROSS THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS AND SWRN OK IS BEGINNING TO SPILL OVER INTO THE WARM
SECTOR...MAKING CONVECTIVE INITIATION MORE PROBABLE AS THIS
CONVECTION DEEPENS WITHIN THE MORE MOIST AIRMASS AND CINH WEAKENS
FURTHER.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE AREA ATOP A
MODESTLY MOIST AIRMASS RESULTING IN 1000-2000 J/KG SBCAPE. VEERING
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO 50 KTS AT 5KM AGL AT KFDR VAD WILL SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS INITIALLY BEFORE A
CONGLOMERATION OF SCTD STORMS/COLD POOLS FAVORS A MIXED MODE BY LATE
EVENING. DESPITE SUPERCELL SUPPORTIVE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THIS
REGION...WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW PRIOR TO SUNSET AND SUBSTANTIAL CINH
--INCREASING TOWARDS DUSK AND THEREAFTER -- WILL LARGELY
LIMIT/NEGATE TORNADO POTENTIAL AS LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS ARE THE
PRIMARY HAZARDS.

[venture]

Watch incoming.



WW 183 SEVERE TSTM OK TX 192340Z - 200600Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35W MWL/MINERAL WELLS TX/ - 20NE OKC/OKLAHOMA CITY OK/ ..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /63ENE ABI - 19NE OKC/ HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 183 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

OKC015-017-019-027-031-033-049-051-067-069-081-085-087-095-099-
109-123-125-133-137-200600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0183.120419T2340Z-120420T0600Z/

OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CADDO CANADIAN CARTER
CLEVELAND COMANCHE COTTON
GARVIN GRADY JEFFERSON
JOHNSTON LINCOLN LOVE
MARSHALL MCCLAIN MURRAY
OKLAHOMA PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE
SEMINOLE STEPHENS


TXC009-023-077-097-237-337-363-417-429-447-485-497-503-200600-
/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0183.120419T2340Z-120420T0600Z/

TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY
COOKE JACK MONTAGUE
PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS
THROCKMORTON WICHITA WISE
YOUNG

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 183
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
640 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 640 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CDT.

SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD LARGE HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER
ISOLATED TORNADOES

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS TO 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF OKLAHOMA CITY
OKLAHOMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO FORM ALONG SURFACE COLD
FRONT/DRYLINE OVER WESTERN NORTH TX...AND ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN
THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST OK. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
BE IN A REGION OF RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR. BUT...SUFFICIENT
EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES AND MODERATE CAPE WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY MAY
PERSIST NEAR THE RED RIVER FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0183 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012


WS 0183
PROBABILITY TABLE:
PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 20%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : 05%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 50%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 30%
PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 80%
PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 20%
PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : >95%


&&
ATTRIBUTE TABLE:
MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.5
MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60
MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 27030
PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO

[venture]

Storms firing from Lawton south. Storms south of the Red River are severe now. Stay alert things are firing fast.

[venture]

This one is showing hail over 2" on radar but it is probably just extremely heavy rain.

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
731 PM CDT THU APR 19 2012






THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA...
* UNTIL 830 PM CDT
* AT 727 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
FORT COBB...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

[venture]

Spotter confirmed hail up to tennis balls moving into the metro.

[OKCisOK4me]

Spotter confirmed hail up to tennis balls moving into the metro.

Where??

[venture]

As it appears right now HRRR got it pretty good, however the complex of storms is farther north in Central OK instead of south. Right now larger hail is in a storm diving SE now and should moss most of the Metro area.

[venture]

Bulletin - immediate broadcast requested
severe thunderstorm warning
national weather service norman ok
848 pm cdt thu apr 19 2012
the national weather service in norman has issued a


severe thunderstorm warning for...
East central grady county in south central oklahoma...
Mcclain county in south central oklahoma...
* until 930 pm cdt
* at 844 pm cdt...national weather service meteorologists detected
a severe thunderstorm capable of producing large damaging hail up
to golf ball size and damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This
storm was located near tabler...moving east at 40 mph.
* locations impacted include...
Purcell...blanchard...goldsby...washington...cole. ..dibble...
Middleberg...
Tabler and criner.

[Roadhawg]

Very heavy rain here now... 50th and N May area

[venture]

Main show appears to be getting under way now. Several severe storms with very large hail forming from Central back through SW OK.

[venture]

Don't have time to post much right now. So here is a quick glimpse of potential severe days coming up...

Tuesday 4/24 - Central & West, greatest risk NC.
Wednesday 4/25 - Much of OK, greatest risk Central & West.
Friday 4/27 - SW OK.
May 2nd - Much of OK, greatest risk Central.
May 3rd - Much of OK, great risk Central & West. To those that frequent the Chat room, don't even start with the questions. You know what I'm talking about. LOL
May 4th - Much of OK, greatest risk Central.
May 5th - Much of OK, greatest risk Central - again.
May 6th - Much of OK, great risk I-35 and west.

Enjoy the quiet weather for now, May looks like it is going to be...well May. LOL

Update on the chat room, it it still running for now. I'll refresh the room about a day before any new period of severe weather. So probably next Monday and then again on the 30th. I'll also try to pull down some of the repetitive Twitter feeds to keep things a bit cleaner and less spammy.

[venture]

NAM came into play today with Tuesday, completely different than GFS for Tuesday. So will hold off going in depth on anything until we see something more lined up.

[venture]

Quick Outlook here for the morning...

Today 4/24 - High instability but strong cap, no storms.
Weds 4/25 - Very high to extreme instability, but strong cap. If something could form due to the high heat tomorrow it will be severe. Less than 10% chance though.
Thurs 4/26 - Same story...very high instability but strong cap and no forcing in the area. Less than 10% chance.
Fri 4/27 - Moderate to high instability, chance of storms mainly North and East. Severe possible.
Sat 4/28 - 06Z GFS: Chance of a storm SE, low instability however. 00Z GFS: Moderate to high instability along and east of I-44 with chance of severe weather developing.
Sun 4/29 - Chance of storms NW and SE, low instability and a low risk of severe.
Mon 4/30 - Chance of storms best North. Severe risk low.
Tues 5/1 - 06Z GFS: Storms appear probably/likely. Low instability should keep severe risk down. 00Z GFS: Moderate to High Instability most of Oklahoma, storms developing over Central & West. Severe probable.
Weds 5/2 - Instability up, storm chances down. Yes kinda backwards. Could see storms form very late however.
Thurs 5/3 - Instability moderate to high Central and East, best chance of storms Central. Severe possible.
Fri 5/4 - Instability high, chance of storms low and mainly SW.
Sat 5/5 - Instability moderate to high Central & East, chance of storms SW and Central. Severe possible.
Sun 5/6 - Low to Moderate instability, chance of storms most areas.
Mon 5/7 - Moderate instability, chance of storms probably I-44 and to the east. Severe possible.
Tues 5/8 to Thurs 5/10 - Drying out on the 06Z GFS but 00Z GFS did keep things pretty consistent as previous days.

We'll see how all this plays out. Still looks like the skies will only remain calm for so much longer.

[ou48A]

The city of Woodward receives large donation from the Apache Oil & Gas

Personally, I say thanks.



The Apache Corporation (NYSE, Nasdaq: APA) today announced that an Apache donation will enable the city to replace its tornado warning system with new equipment that will include battery backup and redundant controls.

A tornado ripped through the western Oklahoma town shortly after midnight on April 15. Six people died and more than 20 were injured.

The signal tower for Woodward's tornado sirens was struck by lightning and the tornado hit the community moments later. Apache's $350,000 donation will fund the city's emergency acquisition of a state-of-the-art tornado warning system that will continue to operate in the case of an interruption of power. Installation of the new equipment is expected to begin this week.

Mayor Roscoe Hill commended the company, stating, "Apache is a long-term corporate citizen of Woodward. This very generous contribution demonstrates their profound commitment to our community. By dedicating funds to upgrade our early warning systems, Apache is saving lives, and we are extremely grateful."

"The City of Woodward is an important hub for Apache's operations in western Oklahoma and home for some of our employees," said Rob Johnston, Central Region vice president. "Our hearts go out to the families who were impacted by this devastating event. This donation is one way for Apache to help the community rebuild, rebound and be prepared for future tornadoes."

About Apache

Apache Corporation is an oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in the United States, Canada, Egypt, the United Kingdom North Sea, Australia and Argentina. From time to time, Apache posts announcements, updates and investor information, in addition to copies of all press releases, on its website, www.apachecorp.com.

[NoOkie]

The city of Woodward receives large donation from the Apache Oil & Gas

Personally, I say thanks.



The Apache Corporation (NYSE, Nasdaq: APA) today announced that an Apache donation will enable the city to replace its tornado warning system with new equipment that will include battery backup and redundant controls.

A tornado ripped through the western Oklahoma town shortly after midnight on April 15. Six people died and more than 20 were injured.

The signal tower for Woodward's tornado sirens was struck by lightning and the tornado hit the community moments later. Apache's $350,000 donation will fund the city's emergency acquisition of a state-of-the-art tornado warning system that will continue to operate in the case of an interruption of power. Installation of the new equipment is expected to begin this week.

Mayor Roscoe Hill commended the company, stating, "Apache is a long-term corporate citizen of Woodward. This very generous contribution demonstrates their profound commitment to our community. By dedicating funds to upgrade our early warning systems, Apache is saving lives, and we are extremely grateful."

"The City of Woodward is an important hub for Apache's operations in western Oklahoma and home for some of our employees," said Rob Johnston, Central Region vice president. "Our hearts go out to the families who were impacted by this devastating event. This donation is one way for Apache to help the community rebuild, rebound and be prepared for future tornadoes."

About Apache

Apache Corporation is an oil and gas exploration and production company with operations in the United States, Canada, Egypt, the United Kingdom North Sea, Australia and Argentina. From time to time, Apache posts announcements, updates and investor information, in addition to copies of all press releases, on its website, www.apachecorp.com.

Good for them, the city's going to be hurting for money just from all the damage. This is going to get the sirens back much quicker I imagine.

[venture]

Outlook tonight based on the evening's run of models...

Next few days a lot of instability around but strong cap, no lifting mechanism, and relatively dry air will mean very little in the way of any storm formation. If anything would form it would be severe but the risk right now looks like less than 10% through Friday..except maybe for far NW OK Wednesday evening. There are signs that storms could form in this area, but I wouldn't bet the farm on it.

Next main chance of storms is on Saturday. With this in mind our weather chat room, at the new address http://www.weatherspotlight.com, is setup to open at Noon on Saturday. Those of you that have already sent me your contact information will get invite about a day before or see it on your CoverItLive accounts for upcoming events. I'll keep the rooms up for roughly a week at a time during peak weather season and then scale it back some. Any questions on the chat room or wanting to get an invite shoot me a message. Now the forecast...

Saturday Outlook
Moderate to high instability along and east of I-44, mainly from OKC to the southwest. Chance for storms will increase by 4-5PM and increase through the evening. CAPE expected to be around 2000 j/kg in the main risk area. Moisture should be pretty good with dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s southeast of I-44, with the highest moisture content over South Central OK. Right now it appears that storms will start in Southwest/South Central OK. Storms will continue to form along I-44 from Tulsa to south of Wichita Falls. Should see a line form and move east overnight and still be ongoing Sunday morning. Right now looks like a decent SLIGHT RISK day with the main threat being very large hail and damaging winds.

Sunday Outlook
Outside of ongoing activity over NE OK, it does appears additional storms will fire up across NW OK by evening. We should see storms continue to form over Western OK and move NE over night. Instability doesn't look all that high on Sunday, though there will be moderate amounts around. A good rainfall should be see over Northern OK overnight, but the overall risk doesn't look significant right now. Looks like a typical marginal severe day with the main risk being hail in the strongest storms.

Monday Outlook
Moderate instability will exist over much of Northern and far Western OK. Chance of storms looks low however and mostly just over Northern OK. Nothing really stick out about this day yet.

Tuesday (May 1st) Outlook
Chance of storms will be late, mainly after day, as it appears now. Large complex over Kansas with isolated activity through W OK and the TX Panhandle along the dryline. Instability will be high to very high with CAPE values over 2500-3000 j/kg across Western OK. This does appears to carry the risk of most modes of severe weather and will need to be watched. Typical SLIGHT RISK day as it appears now. Storms will move east over night and should be into Central OK by day break.

Wednesday (May 2nd) Outlook
Storms continue over OK and will uptick some through the day. Locally heavy rain. Instability will be low to moderate so severe risk doesn't look all that impressive right now. Boundary will move through OK during the day keeping this in check.

Extended Outlook
Thursday (May 3rd) Outlook: Boundary retreats north, moisture returns and instability rebuilds. Moderate to high instability across the state with the best chance of storms over Western into Central OK off the dryline. Severe Risk: Low

Friday (May 4th) Outlook: Low to moderate instability, boundary in the area, and decent chance of rain/storms. Main severe threat looks to be north of Oklahoma this day. Severe Risk: Marginal

Saturday (May 5th) Outlook: Same story as Friday, not much to add. Severe Risk: Marginal

Sunday (May 6th) Outlook: Instability and moisture increases as the dryline continues to bounce around the panhandles and Western OK. Slight chance of storms along it late. Severe Risk: Low

Monday (May 7th) Outlook: Storm system starts to move into the area, front will drop south from Kansas and Dryline move east a bit. Moderate to High Instability across Southwest to Northeast OK. Storms appear to start over NW OK and then fill in and move SE over the state through the night. Severe Risk: Low

Tuesday (May 8th) and Beyond: End of the forecast window shows risks dropping and things drying out. Of course as we get further along in the forecast window the accuracy gets really low, so this will be completely different in a couple runs more than likely.

[venture]

Storms that have fired up tonight due the high instability shouldn't get too out of control. Could see the same tomorrow as mentioned above, but mostly NW.