Oklahoma Weather Discussion - January/February 2012

[venture]

Sorry new work schedule has things messed up for me. Should be settling down a bit now. Tornado Watches through most of Central KS now just across the border. Might see this extend south into Oklahoma, but it looks to be mostly Eastern OK at this point. Also don't confuse severe weather chances with your typical understanding of weather probabilities. There can still be significant severe weather in "slight" risks.

Also I'll get the March severe weather thread remade here in a minute to make sure we have appropriate information in the initial post.

[venture]

Things are starting to pop in Woods County. Could go severe soon. We'll need to wait and see if the line zips south now or waits. HRRR indicates things will hold off until it gets east of I-35 and then develop south.

[venture]

new MCD...

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0170
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0716 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...S-CNTRL/SERN KS...N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 40...

VALID 290116Z - 290245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 40 CONTINUES.

INITIAL DISCRETE SUPERCELL WITH A HISTORY OF PERIODIC BRIEF TORNADO
TOUCHDOWNS WILL BE THE PRIMARY NEAR-TERM SEVERE THREAT INVOF
RENO/HARVEY/MCPHERSON COUNTIES KS. ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY AS COLD FRONT HAS OVERTAKEN THE DRYLINE INTO
NWRN OK. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION SHOULD TRANSITION TO A LARGELY LINEAR
MODE...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN INCREASING RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS...WITH PERHAPS AN ADDITIONAL TORNADO OR TWO. A NEW WW
MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF OK.

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT HAS OVERTAKEN
THE DRYLINE ACROSS CNTRL KS INTO FAR NWRN OK...RESULTING IN A
SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN CONVERGENCE. THIS HAS YIELDED A RAPID
INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE...A COUPLE
OF DISCRETE STORMS HAVE PERSISTED AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE INVOF HUT.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z OUN RAOB WAS QUITE CAPPED...MODIFIED TOP RAOB
SUGGESTS INSTABILITY IS WEAK /MLCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG/ BUT SUFFICIENT
FOR TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS GIVEN PRESENCE OF EFFECTIVE
SRH AOA 400 M2/S2. CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST ADVECTION SHOULD
SUPPORT THESE RISKS WITHIN ONE OR MORE PROBABLE LINE-SEGMENTS
PROPAGATING QUICKLY E/SEWD THIS EVENING.

..GRAMS.. 02/29/2012

[venture]

First Warning is up...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
744 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
WESTERN GRANT COUNTY IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...
ALFALFA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 815 PM CST

* AT 743 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR MANCHESTER...TO NEAR
CHEROKEE...TO LAMBERT...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BYRON...CHEROKEE...GOLTRY...GREAT
SALT PLAINS LAKE...HELENA...INGERSOLL...JET...LAMBERT...
MANCHESTER...NASH...WAKITA AND WALDRON.

[Jon27]

Check out the tie!!!

[venture]

This includes the North and East metro areas. Could argue the watch polygon does cover the northern half of Oklahoma County, but doesn't matter...in and close to the watch area and all that jazz. Based on the counties added it seems that the general feeling is storms will develop south the more east they get.



URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
810 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

EASTERN KANSAS
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 810 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CST.

SEVERAL TORNADOES
ISOLATED INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE
WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
TOPEKA KANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 40. WATCH NUMBER 40 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 810
PM CST. CONTINUE...WW 39...

DISCUSSION...THE EARLIER DRYLINE SUPERCELLS IN S CENTRAL KS ARE NOW
APPROACHING NE KS...AND MAY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN FROM S TO N. FARTHER W/SW...CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO INCREASE/BACKBUILD AS THE COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE
DRYLINE AND THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH EJECTS ENEWD OVER KS. ADDITIONAL
LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING ACROSS OK/SE KS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION ROOTED
AT OR VERY NEAR THE SURFACE...IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH EFFECTIVE SRH
OF 400-700 M2/S2. THE QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE AND MODEST
INSTABILITY SUGGEST THAT THE HAIL RISK WILL BE TEMPERED
SOMEWHAT...BUT SEMI-DISCRETE CELLS IN THE LINE WILL POSE A RISK FOR
DAMAGING GUSTS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27040.

[ZYX2]

Development seems to be building further south. Looks as though we will be getting it here in Tulsa.

[venture]

Line of storms starting to reach Logan County. Additional development signs all the way south through northern Grady County in the West Metro. Severe weather risk is increasing for points along and east of I-35.

[Bunty]

Looks like the tail end may or may not get to Oklahoma City, more likely Stillwater. Whatever, it's such a narrow, rather fast moving line, it probably won't be able to dump much rain.

[Bunty]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT:

This significant weather advisory is for kay...logan...noble and payne counties. At 918 pm cst...a line of strong thunderstorms was located from 6 miles east of hardy...to ponca city...near perry...to 7 miles northwest of orlando...moving southeast at 40 mph. Hazards include...
Hail up to the size of nickels...
Wind gusts to 50 mph...

[venture]

Development is now increasing pretty rapidly south to the Red River just to the east of I-44. Southern Grady, East Comanche, McClain, and Stephens counties could get in on the fun here quickly.

This appears HRRR is going to be almost dead on with the line popping just SE of downtown OKC.

[venture]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0173
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0947 PM CST TUE FEB 28 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...WRN MO...CNTRL/ERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 41...

VALID 290347Z - 290445Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 41 CONTINUES.

PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT PERSISTS WITH QLCS EXTENDING FROM
ERN KS INTO N-CNTRL OK...WITH A HISTORY OF MEASURED SEVERE WIND
GUSTS ACROSS S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK. A MORE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
RISK AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF WRN MO
ALONG THE NRN PORTION OF THE LINE...AND SWWD OF THE LINE ACROSS
CNTRL OK. AREAS DOWNSTREAM OF WW 41 ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE
WW ISSUANCE OR LOCAL WFO EXTENSIONS.

NRN PORTION OF QLCS HAS ESSENTIALLY OVERTAKEN AND PINCHED OFF THE
RICHER WARM SECTOR...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AOA THE UPPER 50S
REMAINING RELEGATED FROM SERN KS ON SWD. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
60-70 KT SWLYS AROUND 1 KM AGL PER AREA VWP AND PROFILER DATA...A
MEAGERLY BUOYANT DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS ACROSS MOST OF W-CNTRL/NWRN MO
SHOULD MITIGATE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS/TORNADOES BEYOND A
LOCALIZED/BRIEF THREAT.

FARTHER SW ACROSS SERN KS INTO NERN OK...A BROADER WARM SECTOR AND
STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE RISE/FALL COUPLET WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO
SCATTERED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

ADDITIONAL CU/SMALL CB DEVELOPMENT IS APPARENT DOWN TO THE RED
RIVER. ALTHOUGH REMOVED FROM THE LARGER INFLUENCE OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...70-80 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT A
RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD TSTM DEVELOPMENT
BECOME SUSTAINED.

..GRAMS.. 02/29/2012

[Roadhawg]

Looks like Feb went out like a lion for NW OK, KS and Missouri